Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3131-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
28 May 2025
Model evaluation paper |
| 28 May 2025
| 28 May 2025
Soil nitrous oxide emissions from global land ecosystems and their drivers within the LPJ-GUESS model (v4.1)
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research, Global Land-Ecosystem Modelling group, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Almut Arneth
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research, Global Land-Ecosystem Modelling group, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Institute of Geography and Geoecology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Benjamin Smith
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, NSW, Australia
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Peter Anthoni
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research, Global Land-Ecosystem Modelling group, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Xu-Ri
Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Peter Eliasson
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Palapye, Botswana
David Wårlind
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Martin Wittenbrink
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research, Global Land-Ecosystem Modelling group, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Stefan Olin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Related authors
Jianyong Ma, Sam S. Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, Stefan Olin, Longlong Xia, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. We simulated the impacts of seven management practices on soil carbon pools, nitrogen loss, and crop yield under different climate scenarios in this region. This study highlights the possibilities of conservation agriculture when targeting long-term environmental sustainability and food security in crop ecosystems, particularly for those with poor soil conditions in tropical climates.
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Jette Elena Stoebke, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Annemarie Eckes-Shephard, Bogdan Brzeziecki, Mikko Peltoniemi, and Thomas A. M. Pugh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2995, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Forests are shaped by how trees compete for resources like sunlight. We improved a widely used vegetation model to better capture how light filters through the forest canopy, especially after tree death or harvesting. By assigning trees explicit positions, the model captures forest structure and change more realistically. This advances our understanding of tree competition and forest responses to management, providing a better tool to predict future forest dynamics.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Konstantin Gregor, Benjamin F. Meyer, Tillmann Gaida, Victor Justo Vasquez, Karina Bett-Williams, Matthew Forrest, João P. Darela-Filho, Sam Rabin, Marcos Longo, Joe R. Melton, Johan Nord, Peter Anthoni, Vladislav Bastrikov, Thomas Colligan, Christine Delire, Michael C. Dietze, George Hurtt, Akihiko Ito, Lasse T. Keetz, Jürgen Knauer, Johannes Köster, Tzu-Shun Lin, Lei Ma, Marie Minvielle, Stefan Olin, Sebastian Ostberg, Hao Shi, Reiner Schnur, Urs Schönenberger, Qing Sun, Peter E. Thornton, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1733, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Geoscientific models are crucial for understanding Earth’s processes. However, they sometimes do not adhere to highest software quality standards, and scientific results are often hard to reproduce due to the complexity of the workflows. Here we gather the expertise of 20 modeling groups and software engineers to define best practices for making geoscientific models maintainable, usable, and reproducible. We conclude with an open-source example serving as a reference for modeling communities.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatonnes. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Dmitry Otryakhin, David Martín Belda, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1401, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a methodology for comparison of simulation results by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). Using this methodology, we reveal systematic differences between high- and low-resolution DGVM simulations caused by under-representation of climate variability in the low-resolution data and poor representation of shore lines and inland water bodies. In a study area covering European Union, the differences in aggregated output variables were found to be 2 %–10 %.
Wim Verbruggen, David Wårlind, Stéphanie Horion, Félicien Meunier, Hans Verbeeck, and Guy Schurgers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1259, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the representation of soil water movement in a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model. This is especially important for dry ecosystems, as they are often driven by changes in soil water availability. We showed that this update resulted in a generally better match with observations, and that the updated model is more sensitive to soil texture. This updated model will help scientists to better understand the future of dry ecosystems under climate change.
Mateus Dantas de Paula, Matthew Forrest, David Warlind, João Paulo Darela Filho, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, and Thomas Hickler
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2249–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2249-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2249-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study maps global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability and how they changed from 1901 to 2018. We find that tropical regions are mostly P-limited, while temperate and boreal areas face N limitations. Over time, P limitation increased, especially in the tropics, while N limitation decreased. These shifts are key to understanding global plant growth and carbon storage, highlighting the importance of including P dynamics in ecosystem models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Carolina Natel, David Martin Belda, Peter Anthoni, Neele Haß, Sam Rabin, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Complex models predict forest carbon responses to future climate change but are slow and computationally intensive, limiting large-scale analyses. We used machine learning to accelerate predictions from the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Our emulators, based on random forests and neural networks, achieved 97 % faster simulations. This approach enables rapid exploration of climate mitigation strategies and supports informed policy decisions.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Hanna Lee, Stefano Materia, Julia E. M .S. Nabel, Taejin Park, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4114, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth System Models are the principal tools for scientists to study past, present, and future climate changes. This work investigates the ability of a set of them to represent the observed changes in vegetation, which are vital to estimating the impact of future climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study highlights the main limitations in correctly representing vegetation variability. These tools still need further development to improve our understanding of future changes.
Prashant Paudel, Stefan Olin, Mark Tjoelker, Mikael Pontarp, Daniel Metcalfe, and Benjamin Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3977, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ecological processes respond to changes in rainfall conditions. Competition and stress created by water availability are two primary components at two ends of the rainfall gradient. In wetter areas, plants compete for resources, while in drier regions, stress limits growth. The complex interaction between plant characters and their response to growth conditions governs ecosystem processes. These findings can be used to understand how future rainfall changes could impact ecosystems.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Chansopheaktra Sovann, Torbern Tagesson, Patrik Vestin, Sakada Sakhoeun, Soben Kim, Sothea Kok, and Stefan Olin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3784, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We offer pairwise observed datasets that compare the characteristics of tropical ecosystems, specifically pristine forests, regrowth forests, and cashew plantations. Our findings uncover some key differences in their characteristics, emphasizing the influence of human activities on these ecosystems. By sharing our unique datasets, we hope to improve the knowledge of tropical forest ecosystems in Southeast Asia, advancing tropical research, and tackling global environmental challenges.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Jens Krause, Peter Anthoni, Mike Harfoot, Moritz Kupisch, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1646, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While animal biodiversity is facing a global crisis as more and more species are becoming endangered or extinct, the role of animals for the functioning of ecosystems is still not fully understood. We contribute to bridging this gap by coupling a animal population model with a vegetation and thus enable future research in this topic.
Chansopheaktra Sovann, Torbern Tagesson, Patrik Vestin, Sakada Sakhoeun, Soben Kim, Sothea Kok, and Stefan Olin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-98, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We offer pairwise observed datasets that compare the characteristics of tropical ecosystems, specifically pristine forests, regrowth forests, and cashew plantations. Our findings uncover some key differences in their characteristics, emphasizing the influence of human activities on these ecosystems. By sharing our unique datasets, we hope to improve the knowledge of tropical forest ecosystems in Southeast Asia, advancing tropical research, and tackling global environmental challenges.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Jennifer A. Holm, David M. Medvigy, Benjamin Smith, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Claus Beier, Mikhail Mishurov, Xiangtao Xu, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Craig D. Allen, Klaus S. Larsen, Yiqi Luo, Cari Ficken, William T. Pockman, William R. L. Anderegg, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 20, 2117–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) are expected to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems. We present a road map of how dynamic vegetation models can explore extreme drought and climate change and assess ecological processes to measure and reduce model uncertainties. The models predict strong nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to different model representations, the models differ in magnitude and trajectory of forest loss. Therefore, we explore specific plant responses that reflect knowledge gaps.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Studies analyzing the impact of the future climate on ecosystems employ climate projections simulated by global circulation models. These climate projections display biases that translate into significant uncertainty in projections of the future carbon cycle. Here, we test different methods to constrain the uncertainty in simulations of the carbon cycle over Australia. We find that all methods reduce the bias in the steady-state carbon variables but that temporal properties do not improve.
Qi Guan, Jing Tang, Lian Feng, Stefan Olin, and Guy Schurgers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding terrestrial sources of nitrogen is vital to examine lake eutrophication changes. Combining process-based ecosystem modeling and satellite observations, we found that land-leached nitrogen in the Yangtze Plain significantly increased from 1979 to 2018, and terrestrial nutrient sources were positively correlated with eutrophication trends observed in most lakes, demonstrating the necessity of sustainable nitrogen management to control eutrophication.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
David Martín Belda, Peter Anthoni, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6709–6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow us to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modelled vegetation processes. The modelled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 21 sites from the FLUXNET network.
Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6495–6519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyzed these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water, mortality, and climate, with an increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Jianyong Ma, Sam S. Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, Stefan Olin, Longlong Xia, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. We simulated the impacts of seven management practices on soil carbon pools, nitrogen loss, and crop yield under different climate scenarios in this region. This study highlights the possibilities of conservation agriculture when targeting long-term environmental sustainability and food security in crop ecosystems, particularly for those with poor soil conditions in tropical climates.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Adrian Gustafson, Paul A. Miller, Robert G. Björk, Stefan Olin, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 6329–6347, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6329-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We performed model simulations of vegetation change for a historic period and a range of climate change scenarios at a high spatial resolution. Projected treeline advance continued at the same or increased rates compared to our historic simulation. Temperature isotherms advanced faster than treelines, revealing a lag in potential vegetation shifts that was modulated by nitrogen availability. At the year 2100 projected treelines had advanced by 45–195 elevational metres depending on the scenario.
Alexandra Pongracz, David Wårlind, Paul A. Miller, and Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
Biogeosciences, 18, 5767–5787, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows that the introduction of a multi-layer snow scheme in the LPJ-GUESS DGVM improved simulations of high-latitude soil temperature dynamics and permafrost extent compared to observations. In addition, these improvements led to shifts in carbon fluxes that contrasted within and outside of the permafrost region. Our results show that a realistic snow scheme is essential to accurately simulate snow–soil–vegetation relationships and carbon–climate feedbacks.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Mats Lindeskog, Benjamin Smith, Fredrik Lagergren, Ekaterina Sycheva, Andrej Ficko, Hans Pretzsch, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle and for carbon storage. In Europe, forests are intensively managed. To understand how management influences carbon storage in European forests, we implement detailed forest management into the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We test the model by comparing model output to typical forestry measures, such as growing stock and harvest data, for different countries in Europe.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, and Benjamin Smith
Biogeosciences, 18, 2181–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes changes in the sea surface temperature patterns of the Pacific Ocean. This influences the global weather, impacting vegetation on land. There are two types of El Niño: central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP). In this study, we explored the long-term impacts on the carbon balance on land linked to the two El Niño types. Using a dynamic vegetation model, we simulated what would happen if only either CP or EP El Niño events had occurred.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Abigail Snyder, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Karina Williams, Ziwei Wang, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yields will be critical for global food security in the next century. The models often used to study the how climate change may impact agriculture are complex and costly to run. In this work, we describe a set of global crop model emulators (simplified models) developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. Crop model emulators make agricultural simulations more accessible to policy or decision makers.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Sam S. Rabin, Peter Alexander, Roslyn Henry, Peter Anthoni, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Mark Rounsevell, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and population growth, and how the resulting adaptations will affect aspects of the Earth system upon which humanity depends. We found that the impacts of land use and management can have stronger impacts than climate change on some such
ecosystem services. The overall impacts are strongest in future scenarios with more severe climate change, high population growth, and/or resource-intensive lifestyles.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Martina Franz, Rocio Alonso, Almut Arneth, Patrick Büker, Susana Elvira, Giacomo Gerosa, Lisa Emberson, Zhaozhong Feng, Didier Le Thiec, Riccardo Marzuoli, Elina Oksanen, Johan Uddling, Matthew Wilkinson, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 15, 6941–6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Four published ozone damage functions previously used in terrestrial biosphere models were evaluated regarding their ability to simulate observed biomass dose–response relationships using the O-CN model. Neither damage function was able to reproduce the observed ozone-induced biomass reductions. Calibrating a plant-functional-type-specific relationship between accumulated ozone uptake and leaf-level photosynthesis did lead to a good agreement between observed and modelled ozone damage.
HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ricardo E. Gonzalez, Maya Gueguen, Carlos Guerra, Mike Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Ines S. Martins, Tetsuya Matsui, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Richard Sharp, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, and Henrique M. Pereira
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
Vanessa Haverd, Benjamin Smith, Lars Nieradzik, Peter R. Briggs, William Woodgate, Cathy M. Trudinger, Josep G. Canadell, and Matthias Cuntz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
CABLE is a terrestrial biosphere model that can be applied stand-alone and provides for land surface–atmosphere exchange within a climate model. We extend CABLE for regional and global carbon–climate simulations, accounting for land use and land cover change mediated by tree demography. A novel algorithm to simulate the coordination of rate-limiting photosynthetic processes is also implemented. Simulations satisfy multiple observational constraints on the global land carbon cycle.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Derek T. Robinson, Alan Di Vittorio, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, C. Michael Barton, Daniel G. Brown, Albert Kettner, Carsten Lemmen, Brian C. O'Neill, Marco Janssen, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sam S. Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, James P. Syvitski, Isaac Ullah, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 895–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the complexity behind the rapid use of Earth’s resources requires modelling approaches that couple human and natural systems. We propose a framework that comprises the configuration, frequency of interaction, and coordination of communication between models along with eight lessons as guidelines to increase the success of coupled human–natural systems modelling initiatives. We also suggest a way to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models.
Maite Bauwens, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Lesley De Cruz, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Quentin Laffineur, Crist Amelynck, Niels Schoon, Bernard Heinesch, Thomas Holst, Almut Arneth, Reinhart Ceulemans, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, and Alex Guenther
Biogeosciences, 15, 3673–3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic isoprene fluxes are simulated over Europe with the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model for the recent past and end-of-century climate at high spatiotemporal resolution (0.1°, 3 min). Due to climate change, fluxes increased by 40 % over 1979–2014. Climate scenarios for 2070–2099 suggest an increase by 83 % due to climate, and an even stronger increase when the potential impact of CO2 fertilization is considered (up to 141 %). Accounting for CO2 inhibition cancels out a large part of these increases.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Florian Sallaba, Stefan Olin, Kerstin Engström, Abdulhakim M. Abdi, Niklas Boke-Olén, Veiko Lehsten, Jonas Ardö, and Jonathan W. Seaquist
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1191–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1191-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure in the Sahel. We show that the demand for food and feed biomass will begin to outstrip its supply in the 2040s if current trends continue. Though supply continues to increase it is outpaced by a greater increase in demand due to a combination of population growth and a shift to diets rich in animal proteins. This underscores the importance of policy interventions that would act to mitigate such developments.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Karin T. Rebel, Stefan C. Dekker, Benjamin Smith, Arthur H. W. Beusen, and Martin J. Wassen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1121–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO2 concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Jonathan C. Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Peter Anthoni, Stefan Olin, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Many climate change mitigation scenarios require negative emissions from land management. However, environmental side effects are often not considered. Here, we use projections of future land use from two land-use models as input to a vegetation model. We show that carbon removal via bioenergy production or forest maintenance and expansion affect a range of ecosystem functions. Largest impacts are found for crop production, nitrogen losses, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gabriel Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Caitlin Moore, Youngryel Ryu, Simon Scheiter, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 14, 4711–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper attempts to review some of the current challenges faced by the modelling community in simulating the behaviour of savanna ecosystems. We provide a particular focus on three dynamic processes (phenology, root-water access, and fire) that are characteristic of savannas, which we believe are not adequately represented in current-generation terrestrial biosphere models. We highlight reasons for these misrepresentations, possible solutions and a future direction for research in this area.
Margreet J. E. van Marle, Silvia Kloster, Brian I. Magi, Jennifer R. Marlon, Anne-Laure Daniau, Robert D. Field, Almut Arneth, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Chao Yue, Johannes W. Kaiser, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Fire emission estimates are a key input dataset for climate models. We have merged satellite information with proxy datasets and fire models to reconstruct fire emissions since 1750 AD. Our dataset indicates that, on a global scale, fire emissions were relatively constant over time. Since roughly 1950, declining emissions from savannas were approximately balanced by increased emissions from tropical deforestation zones.
Kerstin Engström, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, John Hassler, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 773–799, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-773-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Applying a global carbon tax on fossil was shown to lead to increased bioenergy production in four out of five scenarios. Increased bioenergy production led to global cropland changes that were up to 50 % larger by 2100 compared to the reference case (without global carbon tax). For scenarios with strong cropland expansion due to high population growth coupled with low technological change or bioenergy production, the biosphere was simulated to switch from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Ines Bamberger, Nadine K. Ruehr, Michael Schmitt, Andreas Gast, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 3649–3667, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the effects of summer heatwaves and drought on photosynthesis and isoprene emissions in black locust trees. While photosynthesis decreased, isoprene emission increased sharply during the heatwaves. Comparing isoprene emissions of stressed and unstressed trees at the same temperature, however, demonstrated that stressed trees emitted less isoprene than expected. This reveals that in order to predict isoprene emissions during heat waves, model parameters need to be re-evaluated.
Reinhard Prestele, Almut Arneth, Alberte Bondeau, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Stephen Sitch, Elke Stehfest, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate models. We identify and discuss three major challenges at the interface of land-use and climate modeling and propose ways for how to improve land-use representation in climate models. We conclude that land-use data-provider and user communities need to engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced land-use datasets to improve the quantification of land use–climate interactions and feedback.
Xu-Ri and I. Colin Prentice
Biogeosciences, 14, 2003–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2003-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We estimated the global demand for new N fixation (NNF) by terrestrial ecosystem using a DyN-LPJ model. Modelled NPP and C : N ratios of litter and soil organic matter were consistent with independent estimates. Modelled NNF was sensitive to the fraction of litter carbon respired to CO2 during decomposition and plant-type-specific C : N ratios of litter and soil. The modelled annual NNF increased 15% due to increasing CO2, while the future capacity of N sources to support this is unknown.
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Steven Hoek, Toshichika Iizumi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Deepak K. Ray, Ashwan Reddy, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Gen Sakurai, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalsky, Carol X. Song, Xuhui Wang, Allard de Wit, and Hong Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Crop models are increasingly used in climate change impact research and integrated assessments. For the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have supplied crop yield simulations (1980–2010) for maize, wheat, rice and soybean. We evaluate the performance of these models against observational data at global, national and grid cell level. We propose an open-access benchmark system against which future model versions can be tested.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
Martina Franz, David Simpson, Almut Arneth, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 45–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone is a toxic air pollutant that can damage plant leaves and impact their carbon uptake from the atmosphere. We extend a terrestrial biosphere model to account for ozone damage of plants and investigate the impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Our approach accounts for ozone transport from the free troposphere to leaf level. We find that this substantially affects simulated ozone uptake into the plants. Simulations indicate that ozone damages plants less than expected from previous studies
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 893–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories on ecosystem recovery in a range of environmental conditions. We found that recovery trajectories are crucially influenced by type and duration of former agricultural land use, especially for soil carbon. Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity to land-use history in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands. These results are relevant for measurements, climate modeling and afforestation projects.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Minchao Wu, Guy Schurgers, Markku Rummukainen, Benjamin Smith, Patrick Samuelsson, Christer Jansson, Joe Siltberg, and Wilhelm May
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 627–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
On Earth, vegetation does not merely adapt to climate but also imposes significant influences on climate with both local and remote effects. In this study we evaluated the role of vegetation in African climate with a regional Earth system model. By the comparison between the experiments with and without dynamic vegetation changes, we found that vegetation can influence climate remotely, resulting in modulating rainfall patterns over Africa.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gab Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko Duursma, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Youngryel Ryu, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 13, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we assess how well terrestrial biosphere models perform at predicting water and carbon cycling for savanna ecosystems. We apply our models to five savanna sites in Northern Australia and highlight key causes for model failure. Our assessment of model performance uses a novel benchmarking system that scores a model’s predictive ability based on how well it is utilizing its driving information. On average, we found the models as a group display only moderate levels of performance.
Almut Arneth, Risto Makkonen, Stefan Olin, Pauli Paasonen, Thomas Holst, Maija K. Kajos, Markku Kulmala, Trofim Maximov, Paul A. Miller, and Guy Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5243–5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We study the potentially contrasting effects of enhanced ecosystem CO2 release in response to warmer temperatures vs. emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds and their formation of secondary organic aerosol through a combination of measurements and modelling at a remote location in Eastern Siberia. The study aims to highlight the number of potentially opposing processes and complex interactions between vegetation physiology, soil processes and trace-gas exchanges in the climate system.
V. Haverd, B. Smith, M. Raupach, P. Briggs, L. Nieradzik, J. Beringer, L. Hutley, C. M. Trudinger, and J. Cleverly
Biogeosciences, 13, 761–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation in savannas, and test it using data from the OzFlux network. Model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant physiology and vegetation dynamics, in response to resource availability, and not from imposed hypotheses about the controls on tree-grass co-existence. Results indicate that resource limitation is a stronger determinant of tree cover than disturbance in Australian savannas.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
W. Knorr, L. Jiang, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 13, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires are the largest contributor to atmospheric pollution from all fires globally, with major consequences for health and air quality. This study examines the main contributing factors governing wildfire emissions during the 20th and 21st centuries using simulations with climate and ecosystem models. Contrary to common perception, climate change is only one of several important factors, but population change, urbanization and changing atmospheric CO2 levels are at least equally important.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
S. Olin, M. Lindeskog, T. A. M. Pugh, G. Schurgers, D. Wårlind, M. Mishurov, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, B. Smith, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being. Properly managed they can supply food, store carbon and even sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Conversely, if poorly managed, croplands can be a source of nitrogen to inland and coastal waters, causing algal blooms, and a source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, accentuating climate change. Here we studied cropland management types for their potential to store carbon and minimize nitrogen losses while maintaining crop yields.
Y. W. Liu, Xu-Ri, Y. S. Wang, Y. P. Pan, and S. L. Piao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11683–11700, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11683-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11683-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated inorganic N wet deposition at five sites in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Combining in situ measurements in this and previous studies, the average wet deposition of NH4+-N, NO3--N, and inorganic N in the TP was estimated to be 1.06, 0.51, and 1.58 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively. Results suggest that earlier estimations based on chemical transport model simulations and/or limited field measurements likely overestimated substantially the regional inorganic N wet deposition in the TP.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
G. Wohlfahrt, C. Amelynck, C. Ammann, A. Arneth, I. Bamberger, A. H. Goldstein, L. Gu, A. Guenther, A. Hansel, B. Heinesch, T. Holst, L. Hörtnagl, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, A. Neftel, K. McKinney, J. W. Munger, S. G. Pallardy, G. W. Schade, R. Seco, and N. Schoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7413–7427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates. Here we present micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight sites in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis of the terrestrial methanol exchange.
J. Tang, P. A. Miller, A. Persson, D. Olefeldt, P. Pilesjö, M. Heliasz, M. Jackowicz-Korczynski, Z. Yang, B. Smith, T. V. Callaghan, and T. R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 12, 2791–2808, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2791-2015, 2015
S. Olin, G. Schurgers, M. Lindeskog, D. Wårlind, B. Smith, P. Bodin, J. Holmér, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
P. Bodin, S. Olin, T. A. M. Pugh, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Food security is defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In regions where food security is highly dependent on local production it is thus of importance to produce not only enough calories but also to minimize variation in yield. This trade-off is investigated here using simulated crop yield and by selecting relative distributions of crops. The results show a large potential to either increase food production or to decrease its variance by applying optimized crop selection.
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
W. Zhang, C. Jansson, P. A. Miller, B. Smith, and P. Samuelsson
Biogeosciences, 11, 5503–5519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5503-2014, 2014
V. Haverd, B. Smith, L. P. Nieradzik, and P. R. Briggs
Biogeosciences, 11, 4039–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, 2014
A. Arneth, S. Olin, R. Makkonen, P. Paasonen, T. Holst, M. Kajos, M. Kulmala, T. Maximov, P. A. Miller, and G. Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, A. Arneth, and U. Weber
Biogeosciences, 11, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014
R. Väänänen, E.-M. Kyrö, T. Nieminen, N. Kivekäs, H. Junninen, A. Virkkula, M. Dal Maso, H. Lihavainen, Y. Viisanen, B. Svenningsson, T. Holst, A. Arneth, P. P. Aalto, M. Kulmala, and V.-M. Kerminen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11887–11903, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, 2013
M. Lindeskog, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, K. Waha, J. Seaquist, S. Olin, and B. Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013
N. Unger, K. Harper, Y. Zheng, N. Y. Kiang, I. Aleinov, A. Arneth, G. Schurgers, C. Amelynck, A. Goldstein, A. Guenther, B. Heinesch, C. N. Hewitt, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, B. Langford, K. A. McKinney, P. Misztal, M. Potosnak, J. Rinne, S. Pressley, N. Schoon, and D. Serça
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10243–10269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, 2013
M. K. Kajos, H. Hakola, T. Holst, T. Nieminen, V. Tarvainen, T. Maximov, T. Petäjä, A. Arneth, and J. Rinne
Biogeosciences, 10, 4705–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeosciences
ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model
Development and assessment of the physical–biogeochemical ocean regional model in the Northwest Pacific: NPRT v1.0 (ROMS v3.9–TOPAZ v2.0)
Estimation of above- and below-ground ecosystem parameters for DVM-DOS-TEM v0.7.0 using MADS v1.7.3
Alquimia v1.0: a generic interface to biogeochemical codes – a tool for interoperable development, prototyping and benchmarking for multiphysics simulators
Parameterization toolbox for a physical–biogeochemical model compatible with FABM – a case study: the coupled 1D GOTM–ECOSMO E2E for the Sylt–Rømø Bight, North Sea
H2MV (v1.0): global physically constrained deep learning water cycle model with vegetation
NN-TOC v1: global prediction of total organic carbon in marine sediments using deep neural networks
China Wildfire Emission Dataset (ChinaWED v1) for the period 2012–2022
Process-based modeling of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence with VISIT-SIF version 1.0
Implementing a process-based representation of soil water movement in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model: application to dryland ecosystems (LPJ-GUESS-RE v1.0)
Including the phosphorus cycle into the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model (v4.1, r10994) – global patterns and temporal trends of N and P primary production limitation
A comprehensive land-surface vegetation model for multi-stream data assimilation, D&B v1.0
Sources of uncertainty in the SPITFIRE global fire model: development of LPJmL-SPITFIRE1.9 and directions for future improvements
Spatially varying parameters improve carbon cycle modeling in the Amazon rainforest with ORCHIDEE r8849
The unicellular NUM v.0.91: a trait-based plankton model evaluated in two contrasting biogeographic provinces
FESOM2.1-REcoM3-MEDUSA2: an ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model coupled to a sediment model
Satellite-based modeling of wetland methane emissions on a global scale (SatWetCH4 1.0)
Emulating grid-based forest carbon dynamics using machine learning: an LPJ-GUESS v4.1.1 application
Representing high-latitude deep carbon in the pre-industrial state of the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model (r8704)
Systematic underestimation of type-specific ecosystem process variability in the Community Land Model v5 over Europe
pyVPRM: A next-generation Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model for the post-MODIS era
Lambda-PFLOTRAN 1.0: a workflow for incorporating organic matter chemistry informed by ultra high resolution mass spectrometry into biogeochemical modeling
A trait-based model to describe plant community dynamics in managed grasslands (GrasslandTraitSim.jl v1.0.0)
An improved model for air–sea exchange of elemental mercury in MITgcm-ECCOv4-Hg: the role of surfactants and waves
BOATSv2: new ecological and economic features improve simulations of high seas catch and effort
A dynamical process-based model for quantifying global agricultural ammonia emissions – AMmonia–CLIMate v1.0 (AMCLIM v1.0) – Part 1: Land module for simulating emissions from synthetic fertilizer use
Data-Informed Inversion Model (DIIM): a framework to retrieve marine optical constituents in the BOUSSOLE site using a three-stream irradiance model
Simulating the drought response of European tree species with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.1, 97c552c5)
Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627
Biological nitrogen fixation of natural and agricultural vegetation simulated with LPJmL 5.7.9
BIOPERIANT12: a mesoscale resolving coupled physics-biogeochemical model for the Southern Ocean
Learning from conceptual models – a study of the emergence of cooperation towards resource protection in a social–ecological system
TROLL 4.0: representing water and carbon fluxes, leaf phenology and intraspecific trait variation in a mixed-species individual-based forest dynamics model – Part 1: Model description
The biogeochemical model Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 provides plausible and accurate simulations of the carbon cycle in central European beech forests
TROLL 4.0: representing water and carbon fluxes, leaf phenology, and intraspecific trait variation in a mixed-species individual-based forest dynamics model – Part 2: Model evaluation for two Amazonian sites
Sunburned plankton: Ultraviolet radiation inhibition of phytoplankton photosynthesis in the Community Earth System Model version 2
DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology
Impacts of land-use change on biospheric carbon: an oriented benchmark using the ORCHIDEE land surface model
Implementing the iCORAL (version 1.0) coral reef CaCO3 production module in the iLOVECLIM climate model
Assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes within the adjoint-based data assimilation system – Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0)
Quantifying the role of ozone-caused damage to vegetation in the Earth system: a new parameterization scheme for photosynthetic and stomatal responses
Radiocarbon analysis reveals underestimation of soil organic carbon persistence in new-generation soil models
Exploring the potential of history matching for land surface model calibration
EAT v1.0.0: a 1D test bed for physical–biogeochemical data assimilation in natural waters
Using deep learning to integrate paleoclimate and global biogeochemistry over the Phanerozoic Eon
Modelling boreal forest's mineral soil and peat C dynamics with the Yasso07 model coupled with the Ricker moisture modifier
Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0
In silico calculation of soil pH by SCEPTER v1.0
Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.2.0): robust calculations of water and energy fluxes
A global behavioural model of human fire use and management: WHAM! v1.0
Ye Liu, Huilin Huang, Sing-Chun Wang, Tao Zhang, Donghui Xu, and Yang Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4103–4117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4103-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study integrates machine learning with a land surface model to improve wildfire predictions in North America. Traditional models struggle with accurately simulating burned areas due to simplified processes. By combining the predictive power of machine learning with a land model, our hybrid framework better captures fire dynamics. This approach enhances our understanding of wildfire behavior and aids in developing more effective climate and fire management strategies.
Daehyuk Kim, Hyun-Chae Jung, Jae-Hong Moon, and Na-Hyeon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3941–3964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3941-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3941-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Physical–biogeochemical ocean global models are required to analyze difficult oceanic environmental systems. To accurately understand the physical–biogeochemical processes at the regional scale, physical and biogeochemical models were coupled at a high resolution. The results successfully simulated the seasonal variations of chlorophyll and nutrients, particularly in the marginal seas, which were not captured by global models. The developed model is an important tool for studying physical–biogeochemical processes.
Elchin E. Jafarov, Hélène Genet, Velimir V. Vesselinov, Valeria Briones, Aiza Kabeer, Andrew L. Mullen, Benjamin Maglio, Tobey Carman, Ruth Rutter, Joy Clein, Chu-Chun Chang, Dogukan Teber, Trevor Smith, Joshua M. Rady, Christina Schädel, Jennifer D. Watts, Brendan M. Rogers, and Susan M. Natali
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3857–3875, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3857-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3857-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study improves how we tune ecosystem models to reflect carbon and nitrogen storage in Arctic soils. By comparing model outputs with data from a black spruce forest in Alaska, we developed a clearer, more efficient method of matching observations. This is a key step towards understanding how Arctic ecosystems may respond to warming and release carbon, helping make future climate predictions more reliable.
Sergi Molins, Benjamin J. Andre, Jeffrey N. Johnson, Glenn E. Hammond, Benjamin N. Sulman, Konstantin Lipnikov, Marcus S. Day, James J. Beisman, Daniil Svyatsky, Hang Deng, Peter C. Lichtner, Carl I. Steefel, and J. David Moulton
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3241–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Developing scientific software and making sure it functions properly requires a significant effort. As we advance our understanding of natural systems, however, there is the need to develop yet more complex models and codes. In this work, we present a piece of software that facilitates this work, specifically with regard to reactive processes. Existing tried-and-true codes are made available via this new interface, freeing up resources to focus on the new aspects of the problems at hand.
Hoa Nguyen, Ute Daewel, Neil Banas, and Corinna Schrum
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2961-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Parameterization is key in modeling to reproduce observations well but is often done manually. This study presents a particle-swarm-optimizer-based toolbox for marine ecosystem models, compatible with the Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models, thus enhancing its reusability. Applied to the Sylt ecosystem, the toolbox effectively (1) identified multiple parameter sets that matched observations well, providing different insights into ecosystem dynamics, and (2) optimized model complexity.
Zavud Baghirov, Martin Jung, Markus Reichstein, Marco Körner, and Basil Kraft
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2921–2943, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2921-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an innovative approach to studying the Earth's water cycle by integrating advanced machine learning techniques with a traditional water cycle model. Our model is designed to learn from observational data, with a particular emphasis on understanding the influence of vegetation on water movement. By closely aligning with real-world observations, our model offers new possibilities for enhancing our understanding of the water cycle and its interactions with vegetation.
Naveenkumar Parameswaran, Everardo González, Ewa Burwicz-Galerne, Malte Braack, and Klaus Wallmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2521–2544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research uses deep learning to predict organic carbon stocks in ocean sediments, which is crucial for understanding their role in the global carbon cycle. By analysing over 22 000 samples and various seafloor characteristics, our model gives more accurate results than traditional methods. We estimate that the top 10 cm of ocean sediments hold about 156 Pg of carbon. This work enhances carbon stock estimates and helps plan future sampling strategies to better understand oceanic carbon burial.
Zhengyang Lin, Ling Huang, Hanqin Tian, Anping Chen, and Xuhui Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2509–2520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2509-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2509-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The China Wildfire Emission Dataset (ChinaWED v1) estimated wildfire emissions in China during 2012–2022 as 78.13 Tg CO2, 279.47 Gg CH4, and 6.26 Gg N2O annually. Agricultural fires dominated emissions, while forest and grassland emissions decreased. Seasonal peaks occurred in late spring, with hotspots in northeast, southwest, and east China. The model emphasizes the importance of using localized emission factors and high-resolution fire estimates for accurate assessments.
Tatsuya Miyauchi, Makoto Saito, Hibiki M. Noda, Akihiko Ito, Tomomichi Kato, and Tsuneo Matsunaga
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2329–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2329-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2329-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is an effective indicator for monitoring photosynthetic activity. This paper introduces VISIT-SIF, a biogeochemical model developed based on the Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT) to represent satellite-observed SIF. Our simulations reproduced the global distribution and seasonal variations in observed SIF. VISIT-SIF helps to improve photosynthetic processes through a combination of biogeochemical modeling and observed SIF.
Wim Verbruggen, David Wårlind, Stéphanie Horion, Félicien Meunier, Hans Verbeeck, and Guy Schurgers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1259, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the representation of soil water movement in a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model. This is especially important for dry ecosystems, as they are often driven by changes in soil water availability. We showed that this update resulted in a generally better match with observations, and that the updated model is more sensitive to soil texture. This updated model will help scientists to better understand the future of dry ecosystems under climate change.
Mateus Dantas de Paula, Matthew Forrest, David Warlind, João Paulo Darela Filho, Katrin Fleischer, Anja Rammig, and Thomas Hickler
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2249–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2249-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2249-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study maps global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability and how they changed from 1901 to 2018. We find that tropical regions are mostly P-limited, while temperate and boreal areas face N limitations. Over time, P limitation increased, especially in the tropics, while N limitation decreased. These shifts are key to understanding global plant growth and carbon storage, highlighting the importance of including P dynamics in ecosystem models.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Luke Oberhagemann, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Matthew Forrest, Simon P. K. Bowring, Jessica Hetzer, Jaime Ribalaygua Batalla, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2021–2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Under climate change, the conditions necessary for wildfires to form are occurring more frequently in many parts of the world. To help predict how wildfires will change in future, global fire models are being developed. We analyze and further develop one such model, SPITFIRE. Our work identifies and corrects sources of substantial bias in the model that are important to the global fire modelling field. With this analysis and these developments, we help to provide a basis for future improvements.
Lei Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Yitong Yao, Daniel Goll, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Isabel Martínez Cano, Arthur Fendrich, Laurent Li, Hui Yang, Sassan Saatchi, and Wei Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-397, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances the accuracy of modeling the carbon dynamics of Amazon rainforest by optimizing key model parameters based on satellite data. Using spatially varying parameters for tree mortality and photosynthesis, we improved predictions of biomass, productivity, and tree mortality. Our findings highlight the critical role of wood density and water availability in forest processes, offering insights to refine global carbon cycle models.
Trine Frisbæk Hansen, Donald Eugene Canfield, Ken Haste Andersen, and Christian Jannik Bjerrum
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1895–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1895-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe and test the size-based Nutrient-Unicellular-Multicellular model, which defines unicellular plankton using a single set of parameters, on a eutrophic and oligotrophic ecosystem. The results demonstrate that both sites can be modeled with similar parameters and robust performance over a wide range of parameters. The study shows that the model is useful for non-experts and applicable for modeling ecosystems with limited data. It holds promise for evolutionary and deep-time climate models.
Ying Ye, Guy Munhoven, Peter Köhler, Martin Butzin, Judith Hauck, Özgür Gürses, and Christoph Völker
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 977–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many biogeochemistry models assume all material reaching the seafloor is remineralized and returned to solution, which is sufficient for studies on short-term climate change. Under long-term climate change, the carbon storage in sediments slows down carbon cycling and influences feedbacks in the atmosphere–ocean–sediment system. This paper describes the coupling of a sediment model to an ocean biogeochemistry model and presents results under the pre-industrial climate and under CO2 perturbation.
Juliette Bernard, Elodie Salmon, Marielle Saunois, Shushi Peng, Penélope Serrano-Ortiz, Antoine Berchet, Palingamoorthy Gnanamoorthy, Joachim Jansen, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 863–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Despite their importance, uncertainties remain in the evaluation of the drivers of temporal variability of methane emissions from wetlands on a global scale. Here, a simplified global model is developed, taking advantage of advances in remote-sensing data and in situ observations. The model reproduces the large spatial and temporal patterns of emissions, albeit with limitations in the tropics due to data scarcity. This model, while simple, can provide valuable insights into sensitivity analyses.
Carolina Natel, David Martin Belda, Peter Anthoni, Neele Haß, Sam Rabin, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Complex models predict forest carbon responses to future climate change but are slow and computationally intensive, limiting large-scale analyses. We used machine learning to accelerate predictions from the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Our emulators, based on random forests and neural networks, achieved 97 % faster simulations. This approach enables rapid exploration of climate mitigation strategies and supports informed policy decisions.
Yi Xi, Philippe Ciais, Dan Zhu, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Simon P. K. Bowring, Daniel S. Goll, and Ying-Ping Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-206, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Including high-latitude deep carbon is critical for projecting future soil carbon emissions, yet it’s absent in most land surface models. Here we propose a new carbon accumulation protocol by integrating deep carbon from Yedoma deposits and representing the observed history of peat carbon formation in ORCHIDEE-MICT. Our results show an additional 157 PgC in present-day Yedoma deposits and a 1–5 m shallower peat depth, 43 % less passive soil carbon in peatlands against the convention protocol.
Christian Poppe Terán, Bibi S. Naz, Harry Vereecken, Roland Baatz, Rosie A. Fisher, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 287–317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon and water exchanges between the atmosphere and the land surface contribute to water resource availability and climate change mitigation. Land surface models, like the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), simulate these. This study finds that CLM5 and other data sets underestimate the magnitudes of and variability in carbon and water exchanges for the most abundant plant functional types compared to observations. It provides essential insights for further research into these processes.
Theo Glauch, Julia Marshall, Christoph Gerbig, Santiago Botía, Michał Gałkowski, Sanam N. Vardag, and André Butz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3692, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) estimates carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere by modeling gross primary production and respiration using satellite data and weather variables. Our new version, pyVPRM, supports diverse satellite products like Sentinel-2, MODIS, VIIRS and new land cover maps, enabling high spatial and temporal resolution. This improves flux estimates, especially in complex landscapes, and ensures continuity as MODIS nears decommissioning.
Katherine A. Muller, Peishi Jiang, Glenn Hammond, Tasneem Ahmadullah, Hyun-Seob Song, Ravi Kukkadapu, Nicholas Ward, Madison Bowe, Rosalie K. Chu, Qian Zhao, Vanessa A. Garayburu-Caruso, Alan Roebuck, and Xingyuan Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8955–8968, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8955-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8955-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The new Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow incorporates organic matter chemistry into reaction networks to simulate aerobic respiration and biogeochemistry. Lambda-PFLOTRAN is a Python-based workflow in a Jupyter notebook interface that digests raw organic matter chemistry data via Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, develops a representative reaction network, and completes a biogeochemical simulation with the open-source, parallel-reactive-flow, and transport code PFLOTRAN.
Felix Nößler, Thibault Moulin, Oksana Buzhdygan, Britta Tietjen, and Felix May
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To predict the response of grassland plant communities to management and climate change, we developed the computer model GrasslandTraitSim.jl. Unlike other models, it uses measurable plant traits such as height, leaf thinness, and root structure as inputs, rather than hard-to-measure species data. This allows realistic simulation of many species. The model tracks daily changes in above- and below-ground biomass, plant height, and soil water, linking plant community composition to biomass supply.
Ling Li, Peipei Wu, Peng Zhang, Shaojian Huang, and Yanxu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8683–8695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we incorporate sea surfactants and wave-breaking processes into MITgcm-ECCOv4-Hg. The updated model shows increased fluxes in high-wind-speed and high-wave regions and vice versa, enhancing spatial heterogeneity. It shows that elemental mercury (Hg0) transfer velocity is more sensitive to wind speed. These findings may elucidate the discrepancies in previous estimations and offer insights into global Hg cycling.
Jerome Guiet, Daniele Bianchi, Kim J. N. Scherrer, Ryan F. Heneghan, and Eric D. Galbraith
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8421–8454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8421-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATSv2) model dynamically simulates global commercial fish populations and their coupling with fishing activity, as emerging from environmental and economic drivers. New features, including separate pelagic and demersal populations, iron limitation, and spatial variation of fishing costs and management, improve the accuracy of high seas fisheries. The updated model code is available to simulate both historical and future scenarios.
Jize Jiang, David S. Stevenson, and Mark A. Sutton
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8181–8222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A special model called AMmonia–CLIMate (AMCLIM) has been developed to understand and calculate NH3 emissions from fertilizer use and also taking into account how the environment influences these NH3 emissions. It is estimated that about 17 % of applied N in fertilizers was lost due to NH3 emissions. Hot and dry conditions and regions with high-pH soils can expect higher NH3 emissions.
Carlos Enmanuel Soto López, Fabio Anselmi, Mirna Gharbi Dit Kacem, and Paolo Lazzari
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-174, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Our goal was to use an analytical expression to estimate the density of optical constituents, allowing us to have an interpretable formulation consistent with the laws of physics. We focused on a probabilistic approach, optimizing the model and retrieving quantities with their respective uncertainty. Considering future application to Big Data, we also explored a Neural Network based method, retrieving computationally efficient estimates, maintaining consistency with the analytical expression.
Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has increased the likelihood of drought events across Europe, potentially threatening European forest carbon sink. Dynamic vegetation models with mechanistic plant hydraulic architecture are needed to model these developments. We evaluate the plant hydraulic architecture version of LPJ-GUESS and show it's capability at capturing species-specific evapotranspiration responses to drought and reproducing flux observations of both gross primary production and evapotranspiration.
Guillaume Marie, Jina Jeong, Hervé Jactel, Gunnar Petter, Maxime Cailleret, Matthew J. McGrath, Vladislav Bastrikov, Josefine Ghattas, Bertrand Guenet, Anne Sofie Lansø, Kim Naudts, Aude Valade, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8023–8047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research looks at how climate change influences forests, and particularly how altered wind and insect activities could make forests emit instead of absorb carbon. We have updated a land surface model called ORCHIDEE to better examine the effect of bark beetles on forest health. Our findings suggest that sudden events, such as insect outbreaks, can dramatically affect carbon storage, offering crucial insights into tackling climate change.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Nicolette Chang, Sarah-Anne Nicholson, Marcel du Plessis, Alice D. Lebehot, Thulwaneng Mashifane, Tumelo C. Moalusi, N. Precious Mongwe, and Pedro M. S. Monteiro
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale features (10's to 100's of km) in the Southern Ocean (SO) are crucial for global heat and carbon transport, but often unresolved in models due to high computational costs. To address this source of uncertainty, we use a regional, NEMO model of the SO at 8 km resolution with coupled ocean, ice, and biogeochemistry, BIOPERIANT12. This serves as an experimental platform to explore physical-biogeochemical interactions, model parameters/formulations, and configuring future models.
Saeed Harati-Asl, Liliana Perez, and Roberto Molowny-Horas
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7423–7443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Social–ecological systems are the subject of many sustainability problems. Because of the complexity of these systems, we must be careful when intervening in them; otherwise we may cause irreversible damage. Using computer models, we can gain insight about these complex systems without harming them. In this paper we describe how we connected an ecological model of forest insect infestation with a social model of cooperation and simulated an intervention measure to save a forest from infestation.
Isabelle Maréchaux, Fabian Jörg Fischer, Sylvain Schmitt, and Jérôme Chave
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3104, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe TROLL 4.0, a simulator of forest dynamics that represents trees in a virtual space at one-meter resolution. Tree birth, growth, death and the underlying physiological processes such as carbon assimilation, water transpiration and leaf phenology depend on plant traits that are measured in the field for many individuals and species. The model is thus capable of jointly simulating forest structure, diversity and ecosystem functioning, a major challenge in modelling vegetation dynamics.
Katarína Merganičová, Ján Merganič, Laura Dobor, Roland Hollós, Zoltán Barcza, Dóra Hidy, Zuzana Sitková, Pavel Pavlenda, Hrvoje Marjanovic, Daniel Kurjak, Michal Bošel'a, Doroteja Bitunjac, Maša Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Jiří Novák, Peter Fleischer, and Tomáš Hlásny
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7317–7346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a multi-objective calibration approach leading to robust parameter values aiming to strike a balance between their local precision and broad applicability. Using the Biome-BGCMuSo model, we tested the calibrated parameter sets for simulating European beech forest dynamics across large environmental gradients. Leveraging data from 87 plots and five European countries, the results demonstrated reasonable local accuracy and plausible large-scale productivity responses.
Sylvain Schmitt, Fabian Fischer, James Ball, Nicolas Barbier, Marion Boisseaux, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Xiuzhi Chen, Géraldine Derroire, Jeremy Lichstein, Daniela Nemetschek, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Scott Saleska, Giacomo Sellan, Philippe Verley, Grégoire Vincent, Camille Ziegler, Jérôme Chave, and Isabelle Maréchaux
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3106, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the capability of TROLL 4.0, a simulator of forest dynamics, to represent tropical forest structure, diversity and functioning in two Amazonian forests. Evaluation data include forest inventories, carbon and water fluxes between the forest and the atmosphere, and leaf area and canopy height from remote-sensing products. The model realistically predicts the structure and composition, and the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes at both sites.
Joshua Coupe, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Luise S. Gleason, Michael N. Levy, Kristen Krumhardt, Keith Lindsay, Charles Bardeen, Clay Tabor, Cheryl Harrison, Kenneth G. MacLeod, Siddhartha Mitra, and Julio Sepúlveda
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-94, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a new feature in the atmosphere and ocean components of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We have implemented ultraviolet (UV) radiation inhibition of photosynthesis of four marine phytoplankton functional groups represented in the Marine Biogeochemistry Library. The new feature is tested with varying levels of UV radiation. The new feature will enable an analysis of an asteroid impact’s effect on the ozone layer and how that affects the base of the marine food web.
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Huajie Zhu, Mousong Wu, Fei Jiang, Michael Vossbeck, Thomas Kaminski, Xiuli Xing, Jun Wang, Weimin Ju, and Jing M. Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6337–6363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6337-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we developed the Nanjing University Carbon Assimilation System (NUCAS v1.0). Data assimilation experiments were conducted to demonstrate the robustness and investigate the feasibility and applicability of NUCAS. The assimilation of ecosystem carbonyl sulfide (COS) fluxes improved the model performance in gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and sensible heat, showing that COS provides constraints on parameters relevant to carbon-, water-, and energy-related processes.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Alexander S. Brunmayr, Frank Hagedorn, Margaux Moreno Duborgel, Luisa I. Minich, and Heather D. Graven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5961–5985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5961-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new generation of soil models promises to more accurately predict the carbon cycle in soils under climate change. However, measurements of 14C (the radioactive carbon isotope) in soils reveal that the new soil models face similar problems to the traditional models: they underestimate the residence time of carbon in soils and may therefore overestimate the net uptake of CO2 by the land ecosystem. Proposed solutions include restructuring the models and calibrating model parameters with 14C data.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Lars Nerger, Anna Teruzzi, Simone Spada, Jozef Skákala, and Stefano Ciavatta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5619–5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To understand and predict the ocean’s capacity for carbon sequestration, its ability to supply food, and its response to climate change, we need the best possible estimate of its physical and biogeochemical properties. This is obtained through data assimilation which blends numerical models and observations. We present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and efficient test bed that allows any scientist to explore and further develop the state of the art in data assimilation.
Dongyu Zheng, Andrew S. Merdith, Yves Goddéris, Yannick Donnadieu, Khushboo Gurung, and Benjamin J. W. Mills
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5413–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a deep learning method to upscale the time resolution of paleoclimate simulations to 1 million years. This improved resolution allows a climate-biogeochemical model to more accurately predict climate shifts. The method may be critical in developing new fully continuous methods that are able to be applied over a moving continental surface in deep time with high resolution at reasonable computational expense.
Boris Ťupek, Aleksi Lehtonen, Alla Yurova, Rose Abramoff, Bertrand Guenet, Elisa Bruni, Samuli Launiainen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Shoji Hashimoto, Xianglin Tian, Juha Heikkinen, Kari Minkkinen, and Raisa Mäkipää
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5349–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Updating the Yasso07 soil C model's dependency on decomposition with a hump-shaped Ricker moisture function improved modelled soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a catena of mineral and organic soils in boreal forest. The Ricker function, set to peak at a rate of 1 and calibrated against SOC and CO2 data using a Bayesian approach, showed a maximum in well-drained soils. Using SOC and CO2 data together with the moisture only from the topsoil humus was crucial for accurate model estimates.
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Rosie A. Fisher, Charles Koven, Ryan Knox, Lara Kueppers, and Chonggang Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4643–4671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4643-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We adapt a fire behavior and effects module for use in a size-structured vegetation demographic model to test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the distribution of tropical forests and grasslands. Our model captures the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining plant distribution and provides a useful tool for understanding the vulnerability of these areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Yoshiki Kanzaki, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Shuang Zhang, Noah J. Planavsky, and Christopher T. Reinhard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4515–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4515-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil pH is one of the most commonly measured agronomical and biogeochemical indices, mostly reflecting exchangeable acidity. Explicit simulation of both porewater and bulk soil pH is thus crucial to the accurate evaluation of alkalinity required to counteract soil acidification and the resulting capture of anthropogenic carbon dioxide through the enhanced weathering technique. This has been enabled by the updated reactive–transport SCEPTER code and newly developed framework to simulate soil pH.
David Sandoval, Iain Colin Prentice, and Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4229–4309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous estimates of water and energy balances depend on empirical equations requiring site-specific calibration, posing risks of "the right answers for the wrong reasons". We introduce novel first-principles formulations to calculate key quantities without requiring local calibration, matching predictions from complex land surface models.
Oliver Perkins, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Cathy Smith, Jay Mistry, and James D. A. Millington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3993–4016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3993-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire is often presented in the media as a danger to human life. Yet globally, millions of people’s livelihoods depend on using fire as a tool. So, patterns of fire emerge from interactions between humans, land use, and climate. This complexity means scientists cannot yet reliably say how fire will be impacted by climate change. So, we developed a new model that represents globally how people use and manage fire. The model reveals the extent and diversity of how humans live with and use fire.
Cited articles
Abalos, D., Recous, S., Butterbach-Bahl, K., De Notaris, C., Rittl, T. F., Topp, C. F. E., Petersen, S. O., Hansen, S., Bleken, M. A., Rees, R. M., and Olesen, J. E.: A review and meta-analysis of mitigation measures for nitrous oxide emissions from crop residues, Sci. Total Environ., 828, 154388, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154388, 2022.
Bao, Q., Ju, X., Gao, B., Qu, Z., Christie, P., and Lu, Y.: Response of Nitrous Oxide and Corresponding Bacteria to Managements in an Agricultural Soil, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 76, 130–141, https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2011.0152, 2012.
Batjes, N. H.: Harmonized soil profile data for applications at global and continental scales: Updates to the WISE database, Soil Use Manage., 25, 124–127, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.2009.00202.x, 2009.
Benoit, M., Garnier, J., and Billen, G.: Temperature dependence of nitrous oxide production of a luvisolic soil in batch experiments, Process Biochem., 50, 79–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procbio.2014.10.013, 2015.
Bergaust, L., Mao, Y., Bakken, L. R., and Frostegård, Å.: Denitrification response patterns during the transition to anoxic respiration and posttranscriptional effects of suboptimal ph on nitrogen oxide reductase in paracoccus denitrificans, Appl. Environ. Microbiol., 76, 6387–6396, https://doi.org/10.1128/AEM.00608-10, 2010.
Blanc-Betes, E., Kantola, I. B., Gomez-Casanovas, N., Hartman, M. D., Parton, W. J., Lewis, A. L., Beerling, D. J., and DeLucia, E. H.: In silico assessment of the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N2O emissions from bioenergy crops, GCB Bioenergy, 13, 224–241, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12757, 2021.
Bouwman, A. F., Beusen, A. H. W., Griffioen, J., Van Groenigen, J. W., Hefting, M. M., Oenema, O., Van Puijenbroek, P. J. T. M., Seitzinger, S., Slomp, C. P., and Stehfest, E.: Global trends and uncertainties in terrestrial denitrification and N2O emissions, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 368, 20130112, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0112, 2013.
Brummell, M. E., Farrell, R. E., Hardy, S. P., and Siciliano, S. D.: Greenhouse gas production and consumption in High Arctic deserts, Soil Biol. Biochem., 68, 158–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2013.09.034, 2014.
Butterbach-Bahl, K., Baggs, E. M., Dannenmann, M., Kiese, R., and Zechmeister-Boltenstern, S.: Nitrous oxide emissions from soils: How well do we understand the processes and their controls?, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 368, 20130122, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0122, 2013.
Canadell, J. G., Monteiro, P. M. S., Costa, M. H., Cotrim da Cunha, L., Cox, P. M., Eliseev, A. V., Henson, S., Ishii, M., Jaccard, S., Koven, C., Lohila, A., Patra, P. K., Piao, S., Rogelj, J., Syampungani, S., Zaehle, S., and Zickfeld, K.: Global Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 673–816, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.007, 2021.
CEDA Archive: CRU JRA v2.4: A forcings dataset of gridded land surface blend of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Japanese reanalysis (JRA) data, CEDA Archive [data set], https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/cru/data/cru_jra/cru_jra_2.4 (last access: 26 May 2025), 2025.
Chapin III, F. S., Matson, P. A., and Vitousek, P. M.: Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology, in: 2nd Edn., Springer Science and Business Media, New York, USA, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9504-9, 2011.
Ciais, P., Gervois, S., Vuichard, N., Piao, S. L., and Viovy, N.: Effects of land use change and management on the European cropland carbon balance, Global Change Biol., 17, 320–338, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02341.x, 2011.
Cramer, W., Bondeau, A., Woodward, F. I., Prentice, I. C., Betts, R. A., Brovkin, V., Cox, P. M., Fisher, V., Foley, J. A., Friend, A. D., Kucharik, C., Lomas, M. R., Ramankutty, N., Sitch, S., Smith, B., White, A., and Young-Molling, C.: Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: Results from six dynamic global vegetation models, Global Change Biol., 7, 357–373, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x, 2001.
Crippa, M., Guizzardi, D., Pagani, F., Schiavina, M., Melchiorri, M., Pisoni, E., Graziosi, F., Muntean, M., Maes, J., Dijkstra, L., Van Damme, M., Clarisse, L., and Coheur, P.: Insights into the spatial distribution of global, national, and subnational greenhouse gas emissions in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v8.0), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2811–2830, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2811-2024, 2024.
Crutzen, P. J., Mosier, A. R., Smith, K. A., and Winiwarter, W.: N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 389–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-389-2008, 2008.
Cui, J., Zheng, M., Bian, Z., Pan, N., Tian, H., Zhang, X., Qiu, Z., Xu, J., and Gu, B.: Elevated CO2 levels promote both carbon and nitrogen cycling in global forests, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 511–517, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01973-9, 2024.
Dangal, S. R. S., Tian, H., Xu, R., Chang, J., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Pan, S., Yang, J., and Zhang, B.: Global Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Pasturelands and Rangelands: Magnitude, Spatiotemporal Patterns, and Attribution, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 33, 200–222, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006091, 2019.
Davidson, E. A.: The contribution of manure and fertilizer nitrogen to atmospheric nitrous oxide since 1860, Nat. Geosci., 2, 659–662, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo608, 2009.
Davidson, E. A. and Kanter, D.: Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 105012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/105012, 2014.
Davidson, E. A., Keller, M., Erickson, H. E., Verchot, L. V., and Veldkamp, E.: Testing a conceptual model of soil emissions of nitrous and nitric oxides, Bioscience, 50, 667–680, https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0667:TACMOS]2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Davidson, E. A., Nepstad, D. C., Ishida, F. Y., and Brando, P. M.: Effects of an experimental drought and recovery on soil emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and nitric oxide in a moist tropical forest, Global Change Biol., 14, 2582–2590, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01694.x, 2008.
Deng, L., Huang, C., Kim, D. G., Shangguan, Z., Wang, K., Song, X., and Peng, C.: Soil GHG fluxes are altered by N deposition: New data indicate lower N stimulation of the N2O flux and greater stimulation of the calculated C pools, Global Change Biol., 26, 2613–2629, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14970, 2020.
dos Reis Martins, M., Necpalova, M., Ammann, C., Buchmann, N., Calanca, P., Flechard, C. R., Hartman, M. D., Krauss, M., Le Roy, P., Mäder, P., Maier, R., Morvan, T., Nicolardot, B., Skinner, C., Six, J., and Keel, S. G.: Modeling N2O emissions of complex cropland management in Western Europe using DayCent: Performance and scope for improvement, Eur. J. Agron., 141, 126613, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2022.126613, 2022.
Du, R., Lu, D., and Wang, G.: Diurnal, seasonal, and inter-annual variations of N2O fluxes from native semi-arid grassland soils of inner Mongolia, Soil Biol. Biochem., 38, 3474–3482, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2006.06.012, 2006.
Elliott, J., Müller, C., Deryng, D., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Boote, K. J., Büchner, M., Foster, I., Glotter, M., Heinke, J., Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Mueller, N. D., Ray, D. K., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., and Sheffield, J.: The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-261-2015, 2015.
FAOSTAT: Climate Change:Agrifood systems emissions/Totals and Indicators/Emissions totals, FAOSTAT [data set], https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/GT (last access: 29 June 2024), 2024.
Firestone, M. K. and Davidson, E. A.: Microbiological basis of NO and N2O production and consumption in soil, in: Exchange of trace gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, edited by: Andreae, M. O. and Schimel, D. S., John Wiley and Sons, New York, USA, 7–12, ISBN 0471925519, 1989.
Fowler, D., Coyle, M., Skiba, U., Sutton, M. A., Cape, J. N., Reis, S., Sheppard, L. J., Jenkins, A., Grizzetti, B., Galloway, J. N., Vitousek, P., Leach, A., Bouwman, A. F., Butterbach-Bahl, K., Dentener, F., Stevenson, D., Amann, M., and Voss, M.: The global nitrogen cycle in the twenty-first century, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 368, 20130164, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0164, 2013.
Gabbrielli, M., Allegrezza, M., Ragaglini, G., Manco, A., Vitale, L., and Perego, A.: A Review of the Main Process-Based Approaches for Modeling N2O Emissions from Agricultural Soils, Horticulturae, 10, 1–47, https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae10010098, 2024.
Gaillard, R. K., Jones, C. D., Ingraham, P., Collier, S., Izaurralde, R. C., Jokela, W., Osterholz, W., Salas, W., Vadas, P., and Ruark, M. D.: Underestimation of N2O emissions in a comparison of the DayCent, DNDC, and EPIC models, Ecol. Appl., 28, 694–708, https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1674, 2018.
Gleeson, D. B., Müller, C., Banerjee, S., Ma, W., Siciliano, S. D., and Murphy, D. V.: Response of ammonia oxidizing archaea and bacteria to changing water filled pore space, Soil Biol. Biochem., 42, 1888–1891, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2010.06.020, 2010.
Goldberg, S. D. and Gebauer, G.: N2O and NO fluxes between a Norway spruce forest soil and atmosphere as affected by prolonged summer drought, Soil Biol. Biochem., 41, 1986–1995, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2009.07.001, 2009.
Groffman, P. M., Hardy, J. P., Discoll, C. T., and Fahey, T. J.: Snow depth, soil freezing, and fluxes of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane in a northern hardwood forest, Global Change Biol., 12, 1748–1760, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01194.x, 2006.
Gu, B., Zhang, X., Lam, S. K., Yu, Y., Grinsven, H. J. M., Zhang, S., Wang, X., Bodirsky, B. L., Wang, S., Duan, J., Ren, C., Bouwman, L., Vries, W., Xu, J., Sutton, M. A., and Chen, D.: Cost-effective mitigation of nitrogen pollution from global croplands, Nature, 613, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05481-8, 2023.
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P., and Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset, Sci. Data, 7, 109, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3, 2020.
Hergoualc'h, K., Akiyama, H., Bernoux, M., Chirinda, N., del Prado, A., Kasimir, Å., McDonald, J. D., Ogle, S., Regina, K., van der Weerden, T. J., Liang, C., and Noble, A.: N2O Emissions from Managed Soils, and CO2 Emissions from Lime and Urea Application, in: 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, edited by: Calvo Buendia, E., Tanabe, K., Kranjc, A., Jamsranjav, B., Fukuda, M., Ngarize, S., Osako, A., Pyrozhenko, Y., Shermanau, P., and Federici, S., IPCC, Switzerland, 11–13, ISBN 978-4-88788-232-4, 2019.
Hiis, E. G., Vick, S. H. W., Molstad, L., Røsdal, K., Jonassen, K. R., Winiwarter, W., and Bakken, L. R.: Unlocking bacterial potential to reduce farmland N2O emissions, Nature, 630, 421–428, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07464-3, 2024.
Huang, Y. and Gerber, S.: Global soil nitrous oxide emissions in a dynamic carbon-nitrogen model, Biogeosciences, 12, 6405–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6405-2015, 2015.
Kanter, D. R., Zhang, X., Mauzerall, D. L., Malyshev, S., and Shevliakova, E.: The importance of climate change and nitrogen use efficiency for future nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 094003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094003, 2016.
Kazmi, F. A., Espenberg, M., Pärn, J., Masta, M., Ranniku, R., Thayamkottu, S., and Mander, Ü.: Meltwater of freeze-thaw cycles drives N2O-governing microbial communities in a drained peatland forest soil, Biol. Fertil. Soils, 61, 667–680, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00374-023-01790-w, 2025.
Khalil, K., Mary, B., and Renault, P.: Nitrous oxide production by nitrification and denitrification in soil aggregates as affected by O2 concentration, Soil Biol. Biochem., 36, 687–699, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2004.01.004, 2004.
Kim, D. G., Giltrap, D., and Hernandez-Ramirez, G.: Background nitrous oxide emissions in agricultural and natural lands: A meta-analysis, Plant Soil, 373, 17–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-013-1762-5, 2013.
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Kiyotoshi, T.: The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015.
Kool, D. M., Dolfing, J., Wrage, N., and Van Groenigen, J. W.: Nitrifier denitrification as a distinct and significant source of nitrous oxide from soil, Soil Biol. Biochem., 43, 174–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2010.09.030, 2011.
Li, C., Frolking, S., and Frolking, T. A.: A model of nitrous oxide evolution from soil driven by rainfall events: 1. Model structure and sensitivity, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 9759–9776, https://doi.org/10.1029/92jd00509, 1992.
Li, C., Aber, J., Frolking, S., Butterbach-Bahl, K., and Papen, H.: A process-oriented model of N2O and NO emissions from forest soils: 1. Model development, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 4369–4384, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900949, 2000.
Li, L., Zheng, Z., Wang, W., Biederman, J. A., Xu, X., Ran, Q., Qian, R., Xu, C., Zhang, B., Wang, F., Zhou, S., Cui, L., Che, R., Hao, Y., Cui, X., Xu, Z., and Wang, Y.: Terrestrial N2O emissions and related functional genes under climate change: A global meta-analysis, Globasl Change Biol., 26, 931–943, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14847, 2020.
Li, Y., Chen, J., Drury, C. F., Liebig, M., Johnson, J. M. F., Wang, Z., Feng, H., and Abalos, D.: The role of conservation agriculture practices in mitigating N2O emissions: A meta-analysis, Agron. Sustain. Dev., 43, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00911-x, 2023.
Lim, N. Y. N., Frostegård, Å., and Bakken, L. R.: Nitrite kinetics during anoxia: The role of abiotic reactions versus microbial reduction, Soil Biol. Biochem., 119, 203–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2018.01.006, 2018.
Lindeskog, M., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Waha, K., Seaquist, J., Olin, S., and Smith, B.: Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in Africa, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013.
Lindeskog, M., Smith, B., Lagergren, F., Sycheva, E., Ficko, A., Pretzsch, H., and Rammig, A.: Accounting for forest management in the estimation of forest carbon balance using the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r9710): Implementation and evaluation of simulations for Europe, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6071–6112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6071-2021, 2021.
Liu, B., Mørkved, P. T., Frostegård, Å., and Bakken, L. R.: Denitrification gene pools, transcription and kinetics of NO, N2O and N2 production as affected by soil pH, FEMS Microbiol. Ecol., 72, 407–417, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-6941.2010.00856.x, 2010.
Lugato, E., Leip, A., and Jones, A.: Mitigation potential of soil carbon management overestimated by neglecting N2O emissions, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 219–223, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0087-z, 2018.
Lutz, F., Del Grosso, S., Ogle, S., Williams, S., Minoli, S., Rolinski, S., Heinke, J., Stoorvogel, J. J., and Müller, C.: The importance of management information and soil moisture representation for simulating tillage effects on N2O emissions in LPJmL5.0-tillage, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3905–3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, 2020.
Ma, J. and Olin, S.: Soil N2O emissions from global land ecosystems simulated by the LPJ-GUESS model, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14169306, 2024.
Ma, J., Olin, S., Anthoni, P., Rabin, S. S., Bayer, A. D., Nyawira, S. S., and Arneth, A.: Modeling symbiotic biological nitrogen fixation in grain legumes globally with LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r10285), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022a.
Ma, J., Anthoni, P., Olin, S., Rabin, S. S., Bayer, A. D., Xia, L., and Arneth, A.: Estimating the global influence of cover crops on ecosystem service indicators in croplands with the LPJ-GUESS model, Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003142, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003142, 2023.
Ma, J., Arneth, A., Smith, B., Anthoni, P., Xu, R., Peter, E., Wårlind, D., and Olin, S.: LPJ-GUESS model used for soil N2O simulation (v4.1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14258279, 2024.
Ma, M., Song, C., Fang, H., Zhang, J., Wei, J., Liu, S., Chen, X., Zhang, K., Yuan, W., and Lu, H.: Development of a Process-Based N2O Emission Model for Natural Forest and Grassland Ecosystems, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2021MS002460, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002460, 2022b.
Maag, M. and Vinther, F. P.: Nitrous oxide emission by nitrification and denitrification in different soil types and at different soil moisture contents and temperatures, Appl. Soil Ecol., 4, 5–14, 1996.
Maljanen, M., Jokinen, H., Saari, A., Strömmer, R., and Martikainen, P. J.: Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes, and carbon dioxide production in boreal forest soil fertilized with wood ash and nitrogen, Soil Use Manage., 22, 151–157, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.2006.00029.x, 2006.
Mei, K., Wang, Z., Huang, H., Zhang, C., Shang, X., Dahlgren, R. A., Zhang, M., and Xia, F.: Stimulation of N2O emission by conservation tillage management in agricultural lands: A meta-analysis, Soil Till. Res., 182, 86–93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2018.05.006, 2018.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., Van Den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020.
Morishita, T., Sakata, T., Takahashi, M., Ishizuka, S., Mizoguchi, T., Inagaki, Y., Terazawa, K., Sawata, S., Igarashi, M., Yasuda, H., Koyama, Y., Suzuki, Y., Toyota, N., Muro, M., Kinjo, M., Yamamoto, H., Ashiya, D., Kanazawa, Y., Hashimoto, T., and Umata, H.: Methane uptake and nitrous oxide emission in Japanese forest soils and their relationship to soil and vegetation types, Soil Sci. Plant Nutr., 53, 678–691, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-0765.2007.00181.x, 2007.
Nelissen, V., Saha, B. K., Ruysschaert, G., and Boeckx, P.: Effect of different biochar and fertilizer types on N2O and NO emissions, Soil Biol. Biochem., 70, 244–255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2013.12.026, 2014.
Nishina, K., Ito, A., Hanasaki, N., and Hayashi, S.: Reconstruction of spatially detailed global map of NH
Oenema, O., Wrage, N., Velthof, G. L., Van Groenigen, J. W., Dolfing, J., and Kuikman, P. J.: Trends in global nitrous oxide emissions from animal production systems, Nutr. Cycl. Agroecosyst., 72, 51–65, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-004-7354-2, 2005.
Olin, S., Schurgers, G., Lindeskog, M., Wårlind, D., Smith, B., Bodin, P., Holmér, J., and Arneth, A.: Modelling the response of yields and tissue C:N to changes in atmospheric CO2 and N management in the main wheat regions of western Europe, Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015a.
Olin, S., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Schurgers, G., Wårlind, D., Mishurov, M., Zaehle, S., Stocker, B. D., Smith, B., and Arneth, A.: Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: Implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015b.
Ouyang, Y., Norton, J. M., and Stark, J. M.: Ammonium availability and temperature control contributions of ammonia oxidizing bacteria and archaea to nitrification in an agricultural soil, Soil Biol. Biochem., 113, 161–172, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2017.06.010, 2017.
Pärn, J., Verhoeven, J. T. A., Butterbach-Bahl, K., Dise, N. B., Ullah, S., Aasa, A., Egorov, S., Espenberg, M., Järveoja, J., Jauhiainen, J., Kasak, K., Klemedtsson, L., Kull, A., Laggoun-Défarge, F., Lapshina, E. D., Lohila, A., Lõhmus, K., Maddison, M., Mitsch, W. J., Müller, C., Niinemets, Ü., Osborne, B., Pae, T., Salm, J. O., Sgouridis, F., Sohar, K., Soosaar, K., Storey, K., Teemusk, A., Tenywa, M. M., Tournebize, J., Truu, J., Veber, G., Villa, J. A., Zaw, S. S., and Mander, Ü.: Nitrogen-rich organic soils under warm well-drained conditions are global nitrous oxide emission hotspots, Nat. Commun., 9, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03540-1, 2018.
Parton, W. J., Mosier, A. R., Ojima, D. S., Valentine, D. W., Schime, D. S., Weier, K., and Kulmala, A. E.: Generalized model for N2 and N2O production from nitrification and denitrification, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 10, 401–412, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GB01455, 1996.
Parton, W. J., Holland, E. A., Del Grosso, S. J., Hartman, M. D., Martin, R. E., Mosier, A. R., Ojima, D. S., and Schimel, D. S.: Generalized model for NOx and N2O emissions from soils, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 17403–17419, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD900101, 2001.
Pei, Z., Hua, O., Zhou, C., and Xu, X.: N2O Exchange Within a Soil and Atmosphere Profile in Alpine Grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Acta Bot. Sin., 46, 20–28, 2004.
Pilegaard, K.: Processes regulating nitric oxide emissions from soils, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 368, 20130126, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0126, 2013.
Poeplau, C. and Don, A.: Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils via cultivation of cover crops – A meta-analysis, Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 200, 33–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2014.10.024, 2015.
Pongratz, J., Dolman, H., Don, A., Erb, K. H., Fuchs, R., Herold, M., Jones, C., Kuemmerle, T., Luyssaert, S., Meyfroidt, P., and Naudts, K.: Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models, Global Change Biol., 24, 1470–1487, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13988, 2018.
Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., and Döll, P.: MIRCA2000 (1.1), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7422506, 2010.
Porwollik, V., Rolinski, S., Heinke, J., and Müller, C.: Generating a rule-based global gridded tillage dataset, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 823–843, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-823-2019, 2019.
Porwollik, V., Rolinski, S., Heinke, J., von Bloh, W., Schaphoff, S., and Müller, C.: The role of cover crops for cropland soil carbon, nitrogen leaching, and agricultural yields – a global simulation study with LPJmL (V.5.0-tillage-cc), Biogeosciences, 19, 957–977, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, 2022.
Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Olin, S., Ahlström, A., Bayer, A. D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Lindeskog, M., and Schurgers, G.: Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 124008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124008, 2015.
Purbopuspito, J., Veldkamp, E., Brumme, R., and Murdiyarso, D.: Trace gas fluxes and nitrogen cycling along an elevation sequence of tropical montane forests in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002516, 2006.
Quemada, M., Lassaletta, L., Leip, A., Jones, A., and Lugato, E.: Integrated management for sustainable cropping systems: Looking beyond the greenhouse balance at the field scale, Global Change Biol., 26, 2584–2598, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14989, 2020.
Ren, W., Banger, K., Tao, B., Yang, J., Huang, Y., and Tian, H.: Global pattern and change of cropland soil organic carbon during 1901–2010: Roles of climate, atmospheric chemistry, land use and management, Geogr. Sustain., 1, 59–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2020.03.001, 2020.
Rochester, I. J.: Estimating nitrous oxide emissions from flood-irrigated alkaline grey clays, Aust. J. Soil Res., 41, 197–206, https://doi.org/10.1071/SR02068, 2003.
Saikawa, E., Schlosser, C. A., and Prinn, R. G.: Global modeling of soil nitrous oxide emissions from natural processes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 972–989, https://doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20087, 2013.
Saikawa, E., Prinn, R. G., Dlugokencky, E., Ishijima, K., Dutton, G. S., Hall, B. D., Langenfelds, R., Tohjima, Y., Machida, T., Manizza, M., Rigby, M., O'Doherty, S., Patra, P. K., Harth, C. M., Weiss, R. F., Krummel, P. B., Van Der Schoot, M., Fraser, P. J., Steele, L. P., Aoki, S., Nakazawa, T., and Elkins, J. W.: Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4617–4641, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4617-2014, 2014.
Scheer, C., Fuchs, K., Pelster, D. E., and Butterbach-Bahl, K.: Estimating global terrestrial denitrification from measured
Schlüter, S., Lucas, M., Grosz, B., Ippisch, O., Zawallich, J., He, H., Dechow, R., Kraus, D., Blagodatsky, S., Senbayram, M., Kravchenko, A., Vogel, H. J., and Well, R.: The anaerobic soil volume as a controlling factor of denitrification: a review, Biol. Fertil. Soils, 61, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00374-024-01819-8, 2025.
Shcherbak, I., Millar, N., and Robertson, G. P.: Global metaanalysis of the nonlinear response of soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions to fertilizer nitrogen, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 9199–9204, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1322434111, 2014.
Shen, Y. and Zhu, B.: Effects of nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment on soil N2O emission from natural ecosystems: A global meta-analysis, Environ. Pollut., 301, 118993, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2022.118993, 2022.
Sihi, D., Davidson, E. A., Savage, K. E., and Liang, D.: Simultaneous numerical representation of soil microsite production and consumption of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide using probability distribution functions, Global Change Biol., 26, 200–218, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14855, 2020.
Siljanen, H. M. P., Welti, N., Voigt, C., Heiskanen, J., Biasi, C., and Martikainen, P. J.: Atmospheric impact of nitrous oxide uptake by boreal forest soils can be comparable to that of methane uptake, Plant Soil, 454, 121–138, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-020-04638-6, 2020.
Smith, B., Wårlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.
Smith, K. A., Mosier, A. R., Crutzen, P. J., and Winiwarter, W.: The role of N2O derived from crop-based biofuels, and from agriculture in general, in Earth's climate, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 367, 1169–1174, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0313, 2012.
Smith, P., Calvin, K., Nkem, J., Campbell, D., Cherubini, F., Grassi, G., Korotkov, V., Le Hoang, A., Lwasa, S., McElwee, P., Nkonya, E., Saigusa, N., Soussana, J. F., Taboada, M. A., Manning, F. C., Nampanzira, D., Arias-Navarro, C., Vizzarri, M., House, J., Roe, S., Cowie, A., Rounsevell, M., and Arneth, A.: Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?, Global Change Biol., 26, 1532–1575, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14878, 2020.
Song, C. and Zhang, J.: Effects of soil moisture, temperature, and nitrogen fertilization on soil respiration and nitrous oxide emission during maize growth period in northeast China, Acta Agric. Scand. B, 59, 97–106, https://doi.org/10.1080/09064710802022945, 2009.
Song, X., Liu, M., Ju, X., Gao, B., Su, F., Chen, X., and Rees, R. M.: Nitrous Oxide Emissions Increase Exponentially When Optimum Nitrogen Fertilizer Rates Are Exceeded in the North China Plain, Environ. Sci. Technol., 52, 12504–12513, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b03931, 2018.
Springmann, M., Clark, M., Mason-D'Croz, D., Wiebe, K., Bodirsky, B. L., Lassaletta, L., de Vries, W., Vermeulen, S. J., Herrero, M., Carlson, K. M., Jonell, M., Troell, M., DeClerck, F., Gordon, L. J., Zurayk, R., Scarborough, P., Rayner, M., Loken, B., Fanzo, J., Godfray, H. C. J., Tilman, D., Rockström, J., and Willett, W.: Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits, Nature, 562, 519–525, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0, 2018.
Stehfest, E. and Bouwman, L.: N2O and NO emission from agricultural fields and soils under natural vegetation: Summarizing available measurement data and modeling of global annual emissions, Nutr. Cycl. Agroecosyst., 74, 207–228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-006-9000-7, 2006.
Taylor, A. E., Myrold, D. D., and Bottomley, P. J.: Temperature affects the kinetics of nitrite oxidation and nitrification coupling in four agricultural soils, Soil Biol. Biochem., 136, 107523, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2019.107523, 2019.
Thompson, R. L., Lassaletta, L., Patra, P. K., Wilson, C., Wells, K. C., Gressent, A., Koffi, E. N., Chipperfield, M. P., Winiwarter, W., Davidson, E. A., Tian, H., and Canadell, J. G.: Acceleration of global N2O emissions seen from two decades of atmospheric inversion, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 993–998, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0613-7, 2019.
Tian, H., Lu, C., Melillo, J., Ren, W., Huang, Y., Xu, X., Liu, M., Zhang, C., Chen, G., Pan, S., Liu, J., and Reilly, J.: Food benefit and climate warming potential of nitrogen fertilizer uses in China, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044020, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044020, 2012.
Tian, H., Yang, J., Lu, C., Xu, R., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Arneth, A., Chang, J., Chen, G., Ciais, P., Gerber, S., Ito, A., Huang, Y., Joos, F., Lienert, S., Messina, P., Olin, S., Pan, S., Peng, C., Saikawa, E., Thompson, R. L., Vuichard, N., Winiwarter, W., Zaehle, S., Zhang, B., Zhang, K., and Zhu, Q.: The global N2O model intercomparison project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0212.1, 2018.
Tian, H., Yang, J., Xu, R., Lu, C., Canadell, J. G., Davidson, E. A., Jackson, R. B., Arneth, A., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Gerber, S., Ito, A., Joos, F., Lienert, S., Messina, P., Olin, S., Pan, S., Peng, C., Saikawa, E., Thompson, R. L., Vuichard, N., Winiwarter, W., Zaehle, S., and Zhang, B.: Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty, Global Change Biol., 25, 640–659, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14514, 2019.
Tian, H., Xu, R., Canadell, J. G., Thompson, R. L., Winiwarter, W., Suntharalingam, P., Davidson, E. A., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Prather, M. J., Regnier, P., Pan, N., Pan, S., Peters, G. P., Shi, H., Tubiello, F. N., Zaehle, S., Zhou, F., Arneth, A., Battaglia, G., Berthet, S., Bopp, L., Bouwman, A. F., Buitenhuis, E. T., Chang, J., Chipperfield, M. P., Dangal, S. R. S., Dlugokencky, E., Elkins, J. W., Eyre, B. D., Fu, B., Hall, B., Ito, A., Joos, F., Krummel, P. B., Landolfi, A., Laruelle, G. G., Lauerwald, R., Li, W., Lienert, S., Maavara, T., MacLeod, M., Millet, D. B., Olin, S., Patra, P. K., Prinn, R. G., Raymond, P. A., Ruiz, D. J., van der Werf, G. R., Vuichard, N., Wang, J., Weiss, R. F., Wells, K. C., Wilson, C., Yang, J., and Yao, Y.: A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks, Nature, 586, 248–256, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2780-0, 2020.
Tian, H., Bian, Z., Shi, H., Qin, X., Pan, N., Lu, C., Pan, S., Tubiello, F. N., Chang, J., Conchedda, G., Liu, J., Mueller, N., Nishina, K., Xu, R., Yang, J., You, L., and Zhang, B.: History of anthropogenic Nitrogen inputs (HaNi) to the terrestrial biosphere: a 5 arcmin resolution annual dataset from 1860 to 2019, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4551–4568, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, 2022.
Tian, H., Pan, N., Thompson, R. L., Canadell, J. G., Suntharalingam, P., Regnier, P., Davidson, E. A., Prather, M., Ciais, P., Muntean, M., Pan, S., Winiwarter, W., Zaehle, S., Zhou, F., Jackson, R. B., Bange, H. W., Berthet, S., Bian, Z., Bianchi, D., Bouwman, A. F., Buitenhuis, E. T., Dutton, G., Hu, M., Ito, A., Jain, A. K., Jeltsch-Thömmes, A., Joos, F., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Landolfi, A., Lauerwald, R., Li, Y., Lu, C., Maavara, T., Manizza, M., Millet, D. B., Mühle, J., Patra, P. K., Peters, G. P., Qin, X., Raymond, P., Resplandy, L., Rosentreter, J. A., Shi, H., Sun, Q., Tonina, D., Tubiello, F. N., Van Der Werf, G. R., Vuichard, N., Wang, J., Wells, K. C., Western, L. M., Wilson, C., Yang, J., Yao, Y., You, Y., and Zhu, Q.: Global nitrous oxide budget (1980–2020), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024.
Val Martin, M., Blanc-Betes, E., Ming Fung, K., Kantzas, E. P., Kantola, I. B., Chiaravalloti, I., Taylor, L. T., Emmons, L. E., Wieder, W. R., Planavsky, N. J., Masters, M. D., Delucia Evan H., Tai, A. P. K., and Beerling, D. J.: Improving nitrogen cycling in a land surface model (CLM5) to quantify soil N2O, NO and NH3 emissions from enhanced rock weathering with croplands, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5783–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, 2023.
Van Groenigen, K. J., Osenberg, C. W., and Hungate, B. A.: Increased soil emissions of potent greenhouse gases under increased atmospheric CO2, Nature, 475, 214–216, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10176, 2011.
Von Bloh, W., Schaphoff, S., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., Waha, K., and Zaehle, S.: Implementing the nitrogen cycle into the dynamic global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL (version 5.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2789–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, 2018.
Wagner-Riddle, C., Congreves, K. A., Brown, S. E., Helgason, W. D., and Farrell, R. E.: Overwinter and Spring Thaw Nitrous Oxide Fluxes in a Northern Prairie Cropland Are Limited but a Significant Proportion of Annual Emissions, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 38, e2023GB008051, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB008051, 2024.
Wang, Q., Zhou, F., Shang, Z., Ciais, P., Winiwarter, W., Jackson, R. B., Tubiello, F. N., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Tian, H., Cui, X., Canadell, J. G., Piao, S., and Tao, S.: Data-driven estimates of global nitrous oxide emissions from croplands, Natl. Sci. Rev., 7, 441–452, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwz087, 2020.
Wårlind, D., Smith, B., Hickler, T., and Arneth, A.: Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014.
Weier, K. L., Doran, J. W., Power, J. F., and Walters, D. T.: Denitrification and the Dinitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Ratio as Affected by Soil Water, Available Carbon, and Nitrate, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 57, 66–72, https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1993.03615995005700010013x, 1993.
Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, M., and Herold, M.: HILDA+ Global Land Use Change between 1960 and 2019, PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.921846, 2020.
World Meteorological Organization: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, Geneva, Switzerland, https://ozone.unep.org/science/assessment/sap (last access: 29 June 2024), 2022.
Xu, R., Tian, H., Pan, S., Prior, S. A., Feng, Y., and Dangal, S. R. S.: Global N2O Emissions From Cropland Driven by Nitrogen Addition and Environmental Factors: Comparison and Uncertainty Analysis, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006698, 2020.
Xu-Ri and Prentice, I. C.: Terrestrial nitrogen cycle simulation with a dynamic global vegetation model, Global Change Biol., 14, 1745–1764, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01625.x, 2008.
Xu-Ri, Prentice, I. C., Spahni, R., and Niu, H.: Modelling terrestrial nitrous oxide emissions and implications for climate feedback, New Phytol., 196, 472–488, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04269.x, 2012.
Yangjin, D., Wu, X., Bai, H., and Gu, J.: A meta-analysis of management practices for simultaneously mitigating N2O and NO emissions from agricultural soils, Soil Till. Res., 213, 105142, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2021.105142, 2021.
Zaehle, S.: Terrestrial nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions at the global scale, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 368, 20130125, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0125, 2013.
Zaehle, S., Ciais, P., Friend, A. D., and Prieur, V.: Carbon benefits of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen offset by nitrous oxide emissions, Nat. Geosci., 4, 601–605, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1207, 2011.
Zhang, B., Tian, H., Lu, C., Dangal, S., Yang, J., and Pan, S.: nitrogen production and application in cropland and rangeland during 1860–2014: A 5 arcmin gridded global data set for Earth system modeling, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 667–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-11, 2017a.
Zhang, K., Peng, C., Wang, M., Zhou, X., Li, M., Wang, K., Ding, J., and Zhu, Q.: Process-based TRIPLEX-GHG model for simulating N2O emissions from global forests and grasslands: Model development and evaluation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2079–2102, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000934, 2017b.
Zhang, X., Zou, T., Lassaletta, L., Mueller, N. D., Tubiello, F. N., Lisk, M. D., Lu, C., Conant, R. T., Dorich, C. D., Gerber, J., Tian, H., Bruulsema, T., Maaz, T. M. C., Nishina, K., Bodirsky, B. L., Popp, A., Bouwman, L., Beusen, A., Chang, J., Havlík, P., Leclère, D., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Heffer, P., Wanner, N., Zhang, W., and Davidson, E. A.: Quantification of global and national nitrogen budgets for crop production, Nat. Food, 2, 529–540, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00318-5, 2021.
Short summary
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas mainly released from natural and agricultural soils. This study examines how global soil N2O emissions changed from 1961 to 2020 and identifies key factors driving these changes using an ecological model. The findings highlight croplands as the largest source, with factors like fertilizer use and climate change enhancing emissions. Rising CO2 levels, however, can partially mitigate N2O emissions through increased plant nitrogen uptake.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas mainly released from natural and agricultural...
