SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon  cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios

Couplet, Victor; Martínez Montero, Marina; Crucifix, Michel

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 10

Model description paper

|

28 May 2025

Model description paper |

| 28 May 2025

SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios

Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix

Data sets

National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide [Data set]. In Scientific Data (2024.1, Vol. 10, Number 155) M. W. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10839859

A new global interior ocean mapped climatology: the 1° × 1° GLODAP version 2 from 1972-01-01 to 2013-12-31 (NCEI Accession 0286118) S. K. Lauvset et al. https://doi.org/10.3334/cdiac/otg.ndp093_glodapv2

Compilations and splined-smoothed calculations of continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and their radiative forcing since the penultimate glacial maximum [dataset publication series]. P. Köhler et al. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.871273

Model code and software

SURFER v3.0 code Victor Couplet et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14717610

Python code to produce IPCC AR6 WG1 Figure 5.30 C. Koven https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Chapter-5_Fig30/blob/main/longterm_carboncycle_withssp126.ipynb

IPCC WGI AR6 Chapter 9 (v.1.0) Brodie Pearson et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5217365

Short summary

We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO₂ and CH₄ emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.