Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-253-2025
Model description paper
 | 
21 Jan 2025
Model description paper |  | 21 Jan 2025

Forecasting contrail climate forcing for flight planning and air traffic management applications: the CocipGrid model in pycontrails 0.51.0

Zebediah Engberg, Roger Teoh, Tristan Abbott, Thomas Dean, Marc E. J. Stettler, and Marc L. Shapiro

Related authors

Global aviation contrail climate effects from 2019 to 2021
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Ulrich Schumann, Christiane Voigt, Marc Shapiro, Susanne Rohs, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6071–6093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6071-2024, 2024
Short summary
The high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021
Roger Teoh, Zebediah Engberg, Marc Shapiro, Lynnette Dray, and Marc E. J. Stettler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 725–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-725-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-725-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric sciences
The MESSy DWARF (based on MESSy v2.55.2)
Astrid Kerkweg, Timo Kirfel, Duong H. Do, Sabine Griessbach, Patrick Jöckel, and Domenico Taraborrelli
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1265–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1265-2025, 2025
Short summary
An enhanced emission module for the PALM model system 23.10 with application for PM10 emission from urban domestic heating
Edward C. Chan, Ilona J. Jäkel, Basit Khan, Martijn Schaap, Timothy M. Butler, Renate Forkel, and Sabine Banzhaf
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1119–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1119-2025, 2025
Short summary
Identifying lightning processes in ERA5 soundings with deep learning
Gregor Ehrensperger, Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, and Tobias Hell
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1141-2025, 2025
Short summary
Sensitivity of predicted ultrafine particle size distributions in Europe to different nucleation rate parameterizations using PMCAMx-UF v2.2
David Patoulias, Kalliopi Florou, and Spyros N. Pandis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1103–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1103-2025, 2025
Short summary
Explaining neural networks for detection of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in gridded atmospheric simulation data
Tim Radke, Susanne Fuchs, Christian Wilms, Iuliia Polkova, and Marc Rautenhaus
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1017–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1017-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Agarwal, A., Meijer, V. R., Eastham, S. D., Speth, R. L., and Barrett, S. R. H.: Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100–250 %, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC38D9, 2022. 
Bickel, M.: Climate Impact of Contrail Cirrus, PhD thesis/dissertation, Faculty of Physics, LMU Munich, https://doi.org/10.57676/MZMG-R403, 2023. 
Bickel, M., Ponater, M., Bock, L., Burkhardt, U., and Reineke, S.: Estimating the Effective Radiative Forcing of Contrail Cirrus, J. Climate, 33, 1991–2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1, 2019. 
Bier, A. and Burkhardt, U.: Impact of Parametrizing Microphysical Processes in the Jet and Vortex Phase on Contrail Cirrus Properties and Radiative Forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD036677, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036677, 2022. 
Borella, A., Boucher, O., Shine, K. P., Stettler, M., Tanaka, K., Teoh, R., and Bellouin, N.: The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024. 
Download
Short summary
Contrails forming in some atmospheric conditions may persist and become strongly warming cirrus, while in other conditions may be neutral or cooling. We develop a contrail forecast model to predict contrail climate forcing for any arbitrary point in space and time and explore integration into flight planning and air traffic management. This approach enables contrail interventions to target high-probability high-climate-impact regions and reduce unintended consequences of contrail management.
Share