Sources of uncertainty in the SPITFIRE global fire  model: development of LPJmL-SPITFIRE1.9  and directions for future improvements

Oberhagemann, Luke; Billing, Maik; von Bloh, Werner; Drüke, Markus; Forrest, Matthew; Bowring, Simon P. K.; Hetzer, Jessica; Ribalaygua Batalla, Jaime; Thonicke, Kirsten

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025

Articles | Volume 18, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 6

Development and technical paper

|

27 Mar 2025

Development and technical paper |

| 27 Mar 2025

Sources of uncertainty in the SPITFIRE global fire model: development of LPJmL-SPITFIRE1.9 and directions for future improvements

Luke Oberhagemann, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Matthew Forrest, Simon P. K. Bowring, Jessica Hetzer, Jaime Ribalaygua Batalla, and Kirsten Thonicke

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025-supplement

Data sets

Model Code and Data for "Sources of Uncertainty in the Global Fire Model SPITFIRE: Development of LPJmL-SPITFIRE1.9 and Directions for Future Improvements" Luke Oberhagemann et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11473450

LPJmL: central open-source github repository of LPJmL at PIK Sibyll Schaphoff et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11105506

Short summary

Under climate change, the conditions necessary for wildfires to form are occurring more frequently in many parts of the world. To help predict how wildfires will change in future, global fire models are being developed. We analyze and further develop one such model, SPITFIRE. Our work identifies and corrects sources of substantial bias in the model that are important to the global fire modelling field. With this analysis and these developments, we help to provide a basis for future improvements.