Articles | Volume 17, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review and perspective paper
| 
19 Nov 2024
Review and perspective paper |
| 19 Nov 2024
| 19 Nov 2024
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Benjamin M. Sanderson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
Ben B. B. Booth
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
John Dunne
NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
Veronika Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Rosie A. Fisher
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
Pierre Friedlingstein
Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Matthew J. Gidden
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Geography Department, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
Tomohiro Hajima
Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Colin G. Jones
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Andrew King
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Charles D. Koven
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
David M. Lawrence
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Jason Lowe
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Nadine Mengis
GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Glen P. Peters
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
Joeri Rogelj
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Chris Smith
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Abigail C. Snyder
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), College Park, MD, USA
Isla R. Simpson
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Abigail L. S. Swann
College of the Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Claudia Tebaldi
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), College Park, MD, USA
Tatiana Ilyina
Universität Hamburg, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geography Department, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Bjørn H. Samset
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
Detlef van Vuuren
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands
Sönke Zaehle
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
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- Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future S. Basile et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6
- Effective carbon dioxide removal requires a One-Earth approach P. Boyd et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae15a8
- Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures S. Pachauri et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000763
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- Spatiotemporal Persistence and Directed Influence Pathways of Regional CO2 Concentrations in China R. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17050450
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38 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Advances in Permafrost Representation: Biophysical Processes in Earth System Models and the Role of Offline Models H. Matthes et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2269
- Consistency of global carbon budget between concentration- and emission-driven historical experiments simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models and suggestions for improved simulation of CO2 concentration T. Hajima et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025
- Climate mitigation outcomes from China-led emission reductions toward global carbon neutrality Y. Lei et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaf545
- Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future S. Basile et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6
- Effective carbon dioxide removal requires a One-Earth approach P. Boyd et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae15a8
- Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures S. Pachauri et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000763
- A new scenario architecture to capture granularity of governance within and across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways S. Sarkki et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107926
- Overshoot and (ir)reversibility to 2300 in two CO2-emissions driven Earth System models C. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026
- Decomposing pre-industrial to present-day land use change forcing in the UK Earth System Model E. Sands et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-8553-2026
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
- Stage-Specific Drivers of Carbon-Sequestration Dynamics in Porphyra Mariculture and Responses to Global Warming J. Lin et al. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c15527
- Spatiotemporal Persistence and Directed Influence Pathways of Regional CO2 Concentrations in China R. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17050450
- ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making A. King et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025
- The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP2.0) for CMIP7 R. Kramer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4447-2026
- No compromise in efficiency from the co-application of a marine and a terrestrial CDR method Y. Moustakis et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59982-x
- Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100 S. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025
- Contrasting high-latitude mixed layer depth trends in Earth System Models and data products and their impact on temporal pCO2 variability C. Danek & J. Hauck https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08109-z
- Efficacy of individual and combined terrestrial and marine carbon dioxide removal A. Sathyanadh et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2af5
- Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway S. Baur et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025
- Weakening AMOC reduces ocean carbon uptake and increases the social cost of carbon F. Schaumann & E. Alastrué de Asenjo https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2419543122
- Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions in South Asia: a time series analysis using ARIMA models (1975–2030) A. Mollah et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-026-37719-7
- Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming C. Kaufhold et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be
- Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations I. Simpson et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adt8035
- The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7) D. Van Vuuren et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026
- Prediction and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Vegetation Index Based on Deep Learning and Environmental Factors in the Yangtze River Basin Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16030460
- FRIDA-Clim v1.0.1: a simple climate model with process-based carbon cycle used in the integrated assessment model FRIDAv2.1 C. Wells et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1429-2026
- AerChemMIP2 – unraveling the role of reactive gases, aerosol particles, and land use for air quality and climate change in CMIP7 S. Fiedler et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3477-2026
- flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions B. Sanderson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025
- Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels M. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025
- IPSL-Perm-LandN: improving the IPSL Earth System Model to represent permafrost carbon-nitrogen interactions R. Gaillard et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-661-2026
- The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7 N. Gillett et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4399-2025
- A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs) M. Meinshausen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
- Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6 B. Gier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024
- CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities M. McPartland et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2849-2026
- Nonlinear threshold responses and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon under contrasting pedoclimatic regimes J. Cui et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2025.1703663
- On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations V. Brovkin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025
- Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system J. Clarke et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025
- An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment J. Dunne et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 31 Jul 2026
Editorial statement
This is an important topic and timely given that we are on the cusp of running CMIP7 simulations.
This is an important topic and timely given that we are on the cusp of running CMIP7 simulations.
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated...
