Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
now at: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Frédéric Hourdin
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, LMD/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, École Polytechnique, ENS, 75005 Paris, France
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However,...