Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review and perspective paper
| Highlight paper
| 
05 Jun 2024
Review and perspective paper | Highlight paper |
| 05 Jun 2024
| 05 Jun 2024
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
Malte Meinshausen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Climate Resource, Melbourne, Australia
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Berlin, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Kathleen Beyer
Climate Futures, School of Geography, Planning and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Greg Bodeker
Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand
Olivier Boucher
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France
Josep G. Canadell
CSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australia
John S. Daniel
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Aïda Diongue-Niang
Senegal Meteorological Service-ANACIM, Dakar, Senegal
Fatima Driouech
International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco
Erich Fischer
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Piers Forster
Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Michael Grose
CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Hobart, Australia
Gerrit Hansen
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin, Germany
Zeke Hausfather
Stripe Inc., San Francisco, California, USA
Berkeley Earth, Berkeley, California, USA
Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Jarmo S. Kikstra
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
Joyce Kimutai
Kenya Meteorological Services, Nairobi, Kenya
Andrew D. King
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
June-Yi Lee
Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea
Chris Lennard
Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
Tabea Lissner
The New Institute Foundation, Hamburg, Germany
Alexander Nauels
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Glen P. Peters
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Anna Pirani
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Venice, Italy
Università Cà Foscari, Venice, Italy
Gian-Kasper Plattner
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Hans Pörtner
Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany
Department of Biology and Chemistry, Bremen University, Bremen, Germany
Joeri Rogelj
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Maisa Rojas
Department of Geophysics and Centre for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Joyashree Roy
SMARTS Centre, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani, Thailand
GCP-JU, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
Center for Disaster Management and Research, IIT-Guwahati, Guwahati, India
Bjørn H. Samset
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Benjamin M. Sanderson
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Roland Séférian
CNRM (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France
Sonia Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Christopher J. Smith
Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Sophie Szopa
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, CEA, UVSQ, Saint-Aubin, France
Adelle Thomas
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
University of The Bahamas, Nassau, Bahamas
Diana Urge-Vorsatz
Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Vienna, Austria
Guus J. M. Velders
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Tokuta Yokohata
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO, Aspendale, Australia
Zebedee Nicholls
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Climate Resource, Melbourne, Australia
Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
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- Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45
- G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies D. Visioni et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble M. Sarofim et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9
- Storylines: A science‐based method for assessing and measuring future physical climate‐related financial risk T. Fiedler et al. 10.1111/acfi.13295
- Overconfidence in climate overshoot C. Schleussner et al. 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45
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Latest update: 14 Nov 2024
Executive editor
Common pathway frameworks are a critical part of the commonality that underpins the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and feed forward into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper presents the perspective of an broad section of the climate modelling community on the desirable form and content of pathways for the CMIP7 cycle and beyond.
Common pathway frameworks are a critical part of the commonality that underpins the Coupled...
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next...
