Articles | Volume 16, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
Gregory G. Garner
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
current address: Gro Intelligence, New York, NY, USA
Tim H. J. Hermans
Department of Estuarine & Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Yerseke, the Netherlands
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Shantenu Jha
Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Computational Science Initiative, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA
Praveen Kumar
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
Alexander Reedy
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Aimée B. A. Slangen
Department of Estuarine & Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Yerseke, the Netherlands
Matteo Turilli
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Computational Science Initiative, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA
Tamsin L. Edwards
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
Jonathan M. Gregory
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
George Koubbe
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Anders Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Physics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
Andre Merzky
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Sophie Nowicki
Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
Matthew D. Palmer
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Chris Smith
Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, UK
Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
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64 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Derivation of Coastal Erosion Susceptibility and Socio-Economic Vulnerability Models for Sustainable Coastal Management in Senegal C. Cissé et al.
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- Regionalized Mediterranean relative sea level projections under high-emission regional climate scenarios I. Parras-Berrocal et al.
- Sea-level scenarios aligned with the 3rd adaptation plan in France G. Le Cozannet et al.
- Relative sea-level rise and inundation risks in the Bohai Rim: Dominant role of vertical land motion Z. Gong et al.
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- Correcting sea level rise projections by vertical land motions along the South American Pacific Coast F. Molteni-Pérez et al.
- Revealing future effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area F. Lin et al.
- Reply to: A commentary on Holocene relative sea-level histories of far-field islands in the mid-Pacific F. Tan et al.
- Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations G. Schmidt et al.
- Migration, land loss and costs to 2100 due to coastal flooding under the IPCC AR6 sea-level rise scenarios and plausible adaptation choices C. Ballesteros et al.
- Climate-Driven Habitat Shifts in Brown Algal Forests: Insights from the Adriatic Sea D. Donša et al.
- Unveiling the role of storm surges as a driver of flooding on the western Mediterranean: a case study of the Ebro Delta R. Romero-Martín et al.
- From decades to years: Rising seas and cyclones amplify Bangladesh’s storm-tide hazards in a warming climate J. Qiu et al.
- Climate change-driven shoreline change along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean): A probabilistic approach for risk-informed coastal management R. Romero-Martín et al.
- Observational uncertainties on past and future sea level rise for Marseille and Brest tide gauges J. Chenal
- On the time lag between sea-level rise and basin infilling at tidal inlets R. Ranasinghe et al.
- Satellite-based vertical land motion for infrastructure monitoring: a prototype roadmap in Greater Houston, Texas B. Buzzanga et al.
- A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise M. Palmer et al.
- A Methodology for Identifying Coastal Cultural Heritage Assets Exposed to Future Sea Level Rise Scenarios S. Chalkidou et al.
- Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II: risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions W. Jin & N. Lin
- Delivering probabilistic climate hazards assessments D. Huard et al.
- Conceptual data-driven approach for analyzing the vulnerability of coastal roadways to groundwater level changes B. de Oliveira Sousa et al.
- Projections of 21st-century sea-level fall along coastal Greenland L. Lewright et al.
- Substantial reduction in population exposure to sea level changes along the Chinese mainland coast through emission mitigation H. Jin et al.
- Recommendations for producing knowledge syntheses to inform climate change assessments J. Ford et al.
- Long run emulator calibration increases warming and sea-level rise projections C. Wells et al.
- Assessing the impact of climate change on mean annual wave agitation and berth downtime at two major ports of the eastern Mediterranean Sea: Port of Piraeus, Greece and Port of Limassol, Cyprus M. Chondros et al.
- Advancing climate change Research: Robust methodology for precise mapping of sea level rise using satellite-derived bathymetry and the google Earth Engine API M. Ashphaq et al.
- Rewiring climate modeling with machine learning emulators P. Van Katwyk et al.
- Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations D. Felikson et al.
- High- vs. low-rate of sea level change fluvial floods: Past analogues for future forecast J. Santisteban et al.
- The coastal flooding risk throughout the twenty-first century at the ancient city of Delos, Greece D. Malliouri et al.
- Processes explaining increased ocean dynamic sea level in the North Sea in CMIP6 F. Jesse et al.
- A coupling approach for long-term 3D morphological evolution of sandy coasts under sea-level rise M. Traboulsi et al.
- Variable vertical land motion and its impacts on sea level rise projections M. Govorcin et al.
- Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change A. Bhattacharya et al.
- GIS-driven evaluation of energy infrastructure vulnerability to coastal inundation in Qatar A. Hzami et al.
- A semi-empirical approach to estimate the future frequency of extreme sea level events: the case study of Trieste (North Adriatic) F. Raicich & D. Bonaldo
- Mangrove sediments reveal drivers of Late Holocene sea-level change in the equatorial Pacific Ocean J. Sefton et al.
- Risk assessment and adaptation technologies for island biodiversity conservation in China under climate change Y. Xia et al.
- Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate risk management A. Pollack et al.
- Economic cost of no-adaptation and least-cost cases of sea level rise in the U.S. S. Kaylor et al.
- Land subsidence on Java Island and its contributions to relative sea level change L. Ohenhen et al.
- Reinforcement learning–based adaptive strategies for climate change adaptation: An application for coastal flood risk management K. Feng et al.
- Informing Coastal Futures: Sea Level Rise and Ecosystem Service Disruption in Caribbean Biodiversity Hotspots R. Hurtado-Valdivieso et al.
- Anticipatory Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Water Distribution Infrastructures in Coastal Communities Subject to Sea-Level Rise P. Vargas & I. Tien
- Climate Change May Increase the Impact of Coastal Flooding on Carbon Storage in China’s Coastal Terrestrial Ecosystems S. Yang et al.
- Unveiling coastal adaptation demands: Exploring erosion-induced spatial imperatives on the Catalan Coast (NW Mediterranean) R. Romero-Martín et al.
- A Global Perspective on Local Sea Level Changes H. Voortman & R. De Vos
- PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data Y. Lin et al.
- Pan‐Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea‐Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw R. Tanguy et al.
- Past and Future Impacts of the Relative Sea Level Rise on the Seafront of Ancient Delos (Cyclades, Greece) and Flooding Scenarios by 2150 N. Mourtzas & E. Kolaiti
- Hurricane Ida’s blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate K. Feng et al.
- Reconstructing hourly coastal total sea levels and assessing current and future extreme sea levels threats to the Coast of China P. Liu et al.
- Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise P. Lionello et al.
- Creation and analysis of a multi-hazard dataset: Tenerife (Canary Islands) as a case study M. López-Saavedra et al.
- Salinity increases under sea level rise strengthens the chemical protection of SOC in subtropical tidal marshes H. Xu et al.
- Eco-geomorphic modelling response of tidal marshes to sea level rise and changes in suspended sediment supply B. Egidazu-de la Parte et al.
- Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change G. Li et al.
- Quantifying the impact of nuisance flooding on urban coastal communities under present and future climatic conditions: Norfolk, Virginia as a case study J. Jeong et al.
- Amplification factors for extreme sea level frequency have problematic features as a metric of coastal hazard T. Hall
- Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene R. Creel et al.
- Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts C. Perry et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 08 May 2026
Editorial statement
This manuscript provides a novel and comprehensive assessment of uncertainty associated with sea level rise. The model description is thorough and it is applied to a number of possible scenarios. The conclusions are important for framing future discussions on sea level rise.
This manuscript provides a novel and comprehensive assessment of uncertainty associated with sea...
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be...