Articles | Volume 16, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
| 
19 Dec 2023
Model description paper |
| 19 Dec 2023
| 19 Dec 2023
Deciphering past earthquakes from the probabilistic modeling of paleoseismic records – the Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies code (PEACH, version 1)
Vicerectorat de Recerca, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
INGEO, Università degli Studi “G. d'Annunzio” di Chieti e Pescara, Chieti, Italy
Bruno Pace
INGEO, Università degli Studi “G. d'Annunzio” di Chieti e Pescara, Chieti, Italy
UdA–TechLab Research Center, Università degli Studi “G. d'Annunzio” di Chieti e Pescara, Chieti, Italy
Francesco Visini
Sezione di Pisa, Istituto Nazionale di Geofísica e Vulcanologia, Chieti, Italy
Joanna Faure Walker
Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
Oona Scotti
BERSSIN, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
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Earthquake surface ruptures are a hazard for infrastructure and life that requires proper assessment. We use a physics-based earthquake cycle simulator to derive fault displacement hazard statistics in a test fault system and their dependence to fault geometry. Our results show that more complex fault geometries increase surface rupture probabilities and might improve the agreement with observations. Earthquake cycle simulators are thus a promising tool for fault displacement hazard analyses.
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Earthquake surface ruptures are a hazard for infrastructure and life that requires proper assessment. We use a physics-based earthquake cycle simulator to derive fault displacement hazard statistics in a test fault system and their dependence to fault geometry. Our results show that more complex fault geometries increase surface rupture probabilities and might improve the agreement with observations. Earthquake cycle simulators are thus a promising tool for fault displacement hazard analyses.
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Short summary
Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the hazard that they pose. We present an approach (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to correlate and compute seismic histories using paleoseismic data, a type of data that characterizes past seismic activity from the geological record. Our approach reduces the uncertainties of the seismic histories and overall can improve the knowledge on fault rupture behavior for the seismic hazard.
Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the...
