Articles | Volume 16, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5931-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5931-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
20 Oct 2023
Model evaluation paper |
| 20 Oct 2023
| 20 Oct 2023
Evaluation of vertically resolved longwave radiation in SPARTACUS-Urban 0.7.3 and the sensitivity to urban surface temperatures
Megan A. Stretton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
William Morrison
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
Robin J. Hogan
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Sue Grimmond
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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Paolo Andreozzi, Mark D. Fielding, Robin J. Hogan, Richard M. Forbes, Samuel Rémy, Birger Bohn, and Ulrich Löhnert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3790, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Aerosols significantly contribute to the Earth’s climate, but models still struggle at representing them. Here we use satellite observations of clouds to improve aerosols in our weather and air-quality model. We show that African wildfires induce too bright simulated clouds and that our model removes too much aerosol from ice-containing clouds. This showcases how our approach effectively targets poorly observed aerosol processes, potentially informing weather forecasting and climate models.
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, Angela Wendnagel-Beck, and Emmanouil Panagiotakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2481–2502, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, 2025
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This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from the urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend more strongly on inner variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
Howard W. Barker, Jason N. S. Cole, Najda Villefranque, Zhipeng Qu, Almudena Velázquez Blázquez, Carlos Domenech, Shannon L. Mason, and Robin J. Hogan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 3095–3107, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3095-2025, 2025
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Measurements made by three instruments aboard EarthCARE are used to retrieve estimates of cloud and aerosol properties. A radiative closure assessment of these retrievals is performed by the ACMB-DF processor. Radiative transfer models acting on retrieved information produce broadband radiances commensurate with measurements made by EarthCARE’s broadband radiometer. Measured and modelled radiances for small domains are compared, and the likelihood of them differing by 10 W m2 defines the closure.
Russell H. Glazer, Sue Grimmond, Lewis Blunn, Daniel Fenner, Humphrey Lean, Andreas Christen, Will Morrison, and Dana Looschelders
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2064, 2025
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In this study we use very high resolution numerical weather prediction model simulations of the Berlin, Germany region along with assessment of field campaign observations to understand better the impact of urban areas on the near-surface boundary layer. We find that there a clear affect of urban areas up to 15 kilometers downwind of the city centre in both the field campaign observations and the high resolution model.
William Morrison, Dana Looschelders, Jonnathan Céspedes, Bernie Claxton, Marc-Antoine Drouin, Jean-Charles Dupont, Aurélien Faucheux, Martial Haeffelin, Christopher C. Holst, Simone Kotthaus, Valéry Masson, James McGregor, Jeremy Price, Matthias Zeeman, Sue Grimmond, and Andreas Christen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-167, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We conducted research using sophisticated wind sensors to better understand wind patterns in Paris. By installing these sensors across the city, we gathered detailed data on wind speeds and directions from 2022 to 2024. This information helps improve weather and climate models, making them more accurate for city environments. Our findings offer valuable insights for scientists studying urban air and weather, improving predictions and understanding of city-scale atmospheric processes.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Matthias Zeeman, Andreas Christen, Sue Grimmond, Daniel Fenner, William Morrison, Gregor Feigel, Markus Sulzer, and Nektarios Chrysoulakis
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 13, 393–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-13-393-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-13-393-2024, 2024
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This study presents an overview of a data system for documenting, processing, managing, and publishing data streams from research networks of atmospheric and environmental sensors of varying complexity in urban environments. Our solutions aim to deliver resilient, near-time data using freely available software.
Kaah P. Menang, Stefan A. Buehler, Lukas Kluft, Robin J. Hogan, and Florian E. Roemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3051, 2024
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We investigated how the uncertainty in representing water vapour continuum absorption in the shortwave affects clear-sky shortwave radiative feedback. For current surface temperature, the impact is modest (<2 %). In a warmer world, continuum induced error in estimated shortwave feedback is up to ~5 %. Using the MT_CKD model in radiative transfer calculations may lead to an underestimation of the shortwave feedback. Constraining shortwave continuum will contribute to reducing these discrepancies.
Johannes Röttenbacher, André Ehrlich, Hanno Müller, Florian Ewald, Anna E. Luebke, Benjamin Kirbus, Robin J. Hogan, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8085–8104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8085-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8085-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction models simplify the physical processes related to light scattering by clouds consisting of complex ice crystals. Whether these simplifications are the cause for uncertainties in their prediction can be evaluated by comparing them with measurement data. Here we do this for Arctic ice clouds over sea ice using airborne measurements from two case studies. The model performs well for thick ice clouds but not so well for thin ones. This work can be used to improve the model.
Robin J. Hogan, Anthony J. Illingworth, Pavlos Kollias, Hajime Okamoto, and Ulla Wandinger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3081–3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3081-2024, 2024
Hanno Müller, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, Johannes Röttenbacher, Benjamin Kirbus, Michael Schäfer, Robin J. Hogan, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4157–4175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024, 2024
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A weather model is used to compare solar radiation with measurements from an aircraft campaign in the Arctic. Model and observations agree on the downward radiation but show differences in the radiation reflected by the surface and the clouds, which in the model is too low above sea ice and too high above open ocean. The model–observation bias is reduced above open ocean by a realistic fraction of clouds and less cloud liquid water and above sea ice by less dark sea ice and more cloud droplets.
Shannon L. Mason, Howard W. Barker, Jason N. S. Cole, Nicole Docter, David P. Donovan, Robin J. Hogan, Anja Hünerbein, Pavlos Kollias, Bernat Puigdomènech Treserras, Zhipeng Qu, Ulla Wandinger, and Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 875–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-875-2024, 2024
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When the EarthCARE mission enters its operational phase, many retrieval data products will be available, which will overlap both in terms of the measurements they use and the geophysical quantities they report. In this pre-launch study, we use simulated EarthCARE scenes to compare the coverage and performance of many data products from the European Space Agency production model, with the intention of better understanding the relation between products and providing a compact guide to users.
Ting Sun, Hamidreza Omidvar, Zhenkun Li, Ning Zhang, Wenjuan Huang, Simone Kotthaus, Helen C. Ward, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 91–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-91-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-91-2024, 2024
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For the first time, we coupled a state-of-the-art urban land surface model – Surface Urban Energy and Water Scheme (SUEWS) – with the widely-used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, creating an open-source tool that may benefit multiple applications. We tested our new system at two UK sites and demonstrated its potential by examining how human activities in various areas of Greater London influence local weather conditions.
Junxia Dou, Sue Grimmond, Shiguang Miao, Bei Huang, Huimin Lei, and Mingshui Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13143–13166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13143-2023, 2023
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Multi-timescale variations in surface energy fluxes in a suburb of Beijing are analyzed using 16-month observations. Compared to previous suburban areas, this study site has larger seasonal variability in energy partitioning, and summer and winter Bowen ratios are at the lower and higher end of those at other suburban sites, respectively. Our analysis indicates that precipitation, irrigation, crop/vegetation growth activity, and land use/cover all play critical roles in energy partitioning.
Shannon L. Mason, Robin J. Hogan, Alessio Bozzo, and Nicola L. Pounder
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3459–3486, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3459-2023, 2023
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We present a method for accurately estimating the contents and properties of clouds, snow, rain, and aerosols through the atmosphere, using the combined measurements of the radar, lidar, and radiometer instruments aboard the upcoming EarthCARE satellite, and evaluate the performance of the retrieval, using test scenes simulated from a numerical forecast model. When EarthCARE is in operation, these quantities and their estimated uncertainties will be distributed in a data product called ACM-CAP.
Peter Ukkonen and Robin J. Hogan
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3241–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3241-2023, 2023
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Climate and weather models suffer from uncertainties resulting from approximated processes. Solar and thermal radiation is one example, as it is computationally too costly to simulate precisely. This has led to attempts to replace radiation codes based on physical equations with neural networks (NNs) that are faster but uncertain. In this paper we use global weather simulations to demonstrate that a middle-ground approach of using NNs only to predict optical properties is accurate and reliable.
Abdanour Irbah, Julien Delanoë, Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff, David P. Donovan, Pavlos Kollias, Bernat Puigdomènech Treserras, Shannon Mason, Robin J. Hogan, and Aleksandra Tatarevic
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2795–2820, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2795-2023, 2023
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The Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and ATmospheric LIDar (ATLID) aboard the EarthCARE satellite are used to probe the Earth's atmosphere by measuring cloud and aerosol profiles. ATLID is sensitive to aerosols and small cloud particles and CPR to large ice particles, snowflakes and raindrops. It is the synergy of the measurements of these two instruments that allows a better classification of the atmospheric targets and the description of the associated products, which are the subject of this paper.
Joanna E. Dyson, Lisa K. Whalley, Eloise J. Slater, Robert Woodward-Massey, Chunxiang Ye, James D. Lee, Freya Squires, James R. Hopkins, Rachel E. Dunmore, Marvin Shaw, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Alastair C. Lewis, Stephen D. Worrall, Asan Bacak, Archit Mehra, Thomas J. Bannan, Hugh Coe, Carl J. Percival, Bin Ouyang, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Roderic L. Jones, Leigh R. Crilley, Louisa J. Kramer, W. Joe F. Acton, William J. Bloss, Supattarachai Saksakulkrai, Jingsha Xu, Zongbo Shi, Roy M. Harrison, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Yele Sun, Weiqi Xu, Siyao Yue, Lianfang Wei, Pingqing Fu, Xinming Wang, Stephen R. Arnold, and Dwayne E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5679–5697, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5679-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5679-2023, 2023
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The hydroxyl (OH) and closely coupled hydroperoxyl (HO2) radicals are vital for their role in the removal of atmospheric pollutants. In less polluted regions, atmospheric models over-predict HO2 concentrations. In this modelling study, the impact of heterogeneous uptake of HO2 onto aerosol surfaces on radical concentrations and the ozone production regime in Beijing in the summertime is investigated, and the implications for emissions policies across China are considered.
Mathew Lipson, Sue Grimmond, Martin Best, Winston T. L. Chow, Andreas Christen, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Andrew Coutts, Ben Crawford, Stevan Earl, Jonathan Evans, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Bert G. Heusinkveld, Je-Woo Hong, Jinkyu Hong, Leena Järvi, Sungsoo Jo, Yeon-Hee Kim, Simone Kotthaus, Keunmin Lee, Valéry Masson, Joseph P. McFadden, Oliver Michels, Wlodzimierz Pawlak, Matthias Roth, Hirofumi Sugawara, Nigel Tapper, Erik Velasco, and Helen Claire Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5157–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5157-2022, 2022
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We describe a new openly accessible collection of atmospheric observations from 20 cities around the world, capturing 50 site years. The observations capture local meteorology (temperature, humidity, wind, etc.) and the energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere (e.g. radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes). These observations can be used to improve our understanding of urban climate processes and to test the accuracy of urban climate models.
Will S. Drysdale, Adam R. Vaughan, Freya A. Squires, Sam J. Cliff, Stefan Metzger, David Durden, Natchaya Pingintha-Durden, Carole Helfter, Eiko Nemitz, C. Sue B. Grimmond, Janet Barlow, Sean Beevers, Gregor Stewart, David Dajnak, Ruth M. Purvis, and James D. Lee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9413–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9413-2022, 2022
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Measurements of NOx emissions are important for a good understanding of air quality. While there are many direct measurements of NOx concentration, there are very few measurements of its emission. Measurements of emissions provide constraints on emissions inventories and air quality models. This article presents measurements of NOx emission from the BT Tower in central London in 2017 and compares them with inventories, finding that they underestimate by a factor of ∼1.48.
Yiqing Liu, Zhiwen Luo, and Sue Grimmond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4721–4735, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4721-2022, 2022
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Anthropogenic heat emission from buildings is important for atmospheric modelling in cities. The current building anthropogenic heat flux is simplified by building energy consumption. Our research proposes a novel approach to determine ‘real’ building anthropogenic heat emission from the changes in energy balance fluxes between occupied and unoccupied buildings. We hope to provide new insights into future parameterisations of building anthropogenic heat flux in urban climate models.
Hamidreza Omidvar, Ting Sun, Sue Grimmond, Dave Bilesbach, Andrew Black, Jiquan Chen, Zexia Duan, Zhiqiu Gao, Hiroki Iwata, and Joseph P. McFadden
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3041–3078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3041-2022, 2022
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This paper extends the applicability of the SUEWS to extensive pervious areas outside cities. We derived various parameters such as leaf area index, albedo, roughness parameters and surface conductance for non-urban areas. The relation between LAI and albedo is also explored. The methods and parameters discussed can be used for both online and offline simulations. Using appropriate parameters related to non-urban areas is essential for assessing urban–rural differences.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, David Carruthers, Sue Grimmond, Yiqun Han, Pingqing Fu, and Simone Kotthaus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13687–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13687-2021, 2021
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Heat-related illnesses are of increasing concern in China given its rapid urbanisation and our ever-warming climate. We examine the relative impacts that land surface properties and anthropogenic heat have on the urban heat island (UHI) in Beijing using ADMS-Urban. Air temperature measurements and satellite-derived land surface temperatures provide valuable means of evaluating modelled spatiotemporal variations. This work provides critical information for urban planners and UHI mitigation.
David Meyer, Thomas Nagler, and Robin J. Hogan
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5205–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5205-2021, 2021
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A major limitation in training machine-learning emulators is often caused by the lack of data. This paper presents a cheap way to increase the size of training datasets using statistical techniques and thereby improve the performance of machine-learning emulators.
Claire E. Reeves, Graham P. Mills, Lisa K. Whalley, W. Joe F. Acton, William J. Bloss, Leigh R. Crilley, Sue Grimmond, Dwayne E. Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, James R. Hopkins, Simone Kotthaus, Louisa J. Kramer, Roderic L. Jones, James D. Lee, Yanhui Liu, Bin Ouyang, Eloise Slater, Freya Squires, Xinming Wang, Robert Woodward-Massey, and Chunxiang Ye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6315–6330, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6315-2021, 2021
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The impact of isoprene on atmospheric chemistry is dependent on how its oxidation products interact with other pollutants, specifically nitrogen oxides. Such interactions can lead to isoprene nitrates. We made measurements of the concentrations of individual isoprene nitrate isomers in Beijing and used a model to test current understanding of their chemistry. We highlight areas of uncertainty in understanding, in particular the chemistry following oxidation of isoprene by the nitrate radical.
Wenhua Wang, Longyi Shao, Claudio Mazzoleni, Yaowei Li, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Janarjan Bhandari, Jiaoping Xing, Xiaolei Feng, Mengyuan Zhang, and Zongbo Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5301–5314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5301-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5301-2021, 2021
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We compared the characteristics of individual particles at ground level and above the mixed-layer height. We found that the particles above the mixed-layer height during haze periods are more aged compared to ground level. More coal-combustion-related primary organic particles were found above the mixed-layer height. We suggest that the particles above the mixed-layer height are affected by the surrounding areas, and once mixed down to the ground, they might contribute to ground air pollution.
Lisa K. Whalley, Eloise J. Slater, Robert Woodward-Massey, Chunxiang Ye, James D. Lee, Freya Squires, James R. Hopkins, Rachel E. Dunmore, Marvin Shaw, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Alastair C. Lewis, Archit Mehra, Stephen D. Worrall, Asan Bacak, Thomas J. Bannan, Hugh Coe, Carl J. Percival, Bin Ouyang, Roderic L. Jones, Leigh R. Crilley, Louisa J. Kramer, William J. Bloss, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Yele Sun, Weiqi Xu, Siyao Yue, Lujie Ren, W. Joe F. Acton, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Xinming Wang, Pingqing Fu, and Dwayne E. Heard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2125–2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2125-2021, 2021
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To understand how emission controls will impact ozone, an understanding of the sources and sinks of OH and the chemical cycling between peroxy radicals is needed. This paper presents measurements of OH, HO2 and total RO2 taken in central Beijing. The radical observations are compared to a detailed chemistry model, which shows that under low NO conditions, there is a missing OH source. Under high NOx conditions, the model under-predicts RO2 and impacts our ability to model ozone.
Rutambhara Joshi, Dantong Liu, Eiko Nemitz, Ben Langford, Neil Mullinger, Freya Squires, James Lee, Yunfei Wu, Xiaole Pan, Pingqing Fu, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Qiang Zhang, Ruili Wu, Oliver Wild, Michael Flynn, Hugh Coe, and James Allan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 147–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-147-2021, 2021
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Black carbon (BC) is a component of particulate matter which has significant effects on climate and human health. Sources of BC include biomass burning, transport, industry and domestic cooking and heating. In this study, we measured BC emissions in Beijing, finding a dominance of traffic emissions over all other sources. The quantitative method presented here has benefits for revising widely used emissions inventories and for understanding BC sources with impacts on air quality and climate.
Robin J. Hogan and Marco Matricardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6501–6521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6501-2020, 2020
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A key component of computer models used to predict weather and climate is the radiation scheme, which calculates how solar and infrared radiation heats and cools the atmosphere and surface, including the important role of greenhouse gases. This paper describes the experimental protocol and large datasets for a new project, CKDMIP, to evaluate and improve the accuracy of the treatment of atmospheric gases in the radiation schemes used worldwide, as well as their computational speed.
Isabella Capel-Timms, Stefán Thor Smith, Ting Sun, and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4891–4924, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4891-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4891-2020, 2020
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Thermal emissions or anthropogenic heat fluxes (QF) from human activities impact the local- and larger-scale urban climate. DASH considers both urban form and function in simulating QF by use of an agent-based structure that includes behavioural characteristics of city populations. This allows social practices to drive the calculation of QF as occupants move, varying by day type, demographic, location, activity, and socio-economic factors and in response to environmental conditions.
Freya A. Squires, Eiko Nemitz, Ben Langford, Oliver Wild, Will S. Drysdale, W. Joe F. Acton, Pingqing Fu, C. Sue B. Grimmond, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Simone Kotthaus, James Lee, Stefan Metzger, Natchaya Pingintha-Durden, Marvin Shaw, Adam R. Vaughan, Xinming Wang, Ruili Wu, Qiang Zhang, and Yanli Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8737–8761, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8737-2020, 2020
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Significant air quality problems exist in megacities like Beijing, China. To manage air pollution, legislators need a clear understanding of pollutant emissions. However, emissions inventories have large uncertainties, and reliable field measurements of pollutant emissions are required to constrain them. This work presents the first measurements of traffic-dominated emissions in Beijing which suggest that inventories overestimate these emissions in the region during both winter and summer.
Michael Biggart, Jenny Stocker, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Michael Hollaway, David Carruthers, Jie Li, Qiang Zhang, Ruili Wu, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Freya A. Squires, James Lee, and Zongbo Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2755–2780, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2755-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2755-2020, 2020
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Ambient air pollution is a major cause of premature death in China. We examine the street-scale variation of pollutant levels in Beijing using air pollution dispersion and chemistry model ADMS-Urban. Campaign measurements are compared with simulated pollutant levels, providing a valuable means of evaluating the impact of key processes on urban air quality. Air quality modelling at such fine scales is essential for human exposure studies and for informing choices on future emission controls.
Shannon L. Mason, Robin J. Hogan, Christopher D. Westbrook, Stefan Kneifel, Dmitri Moisseev, and Leonie von Terzi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 4993–5018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4993-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4993-2019, 2019
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The mass contents of snowflakes are critical to remotely sensed estimates of snowfall. The signatures of snow measured at three radar frequencies can distinguish fluffy, fractal snowflakes from dense and more homogeneous rimed snow. However, we show that the shape of the particle size spectrum also has a significant impact on triple-frequency radar signatures and must be accounted for when making triple-frequency radar estimates of snow that include variations in particle structure and density.
Ting Sun and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2781–2795, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2781-2019, 2019
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A Python-enhanced urban land surface model, SuPy (SUEWS in Python), is presented with its development (the SUEWS interface modification, F2PY configuration and Python frontend implementation), cross-platform deployment (PyPI, Python Package Index) and demonstration (online tutorials in Jupyter notebooks for users of different levels). SuPy represents a significant enhancement that supports existing and new model applications, reproducibility and enhanced functionality.
Zongbo Shi, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Roy M. Harrison, Sue Grimmond, Siyao Yue, Tong Zhu, James Lee, Yiqun Han, Matthias Demuzere, Rachel E. Dunmore, Lujie Ren, Di Liu, Yuanlin Wang, Oliver Wild, James Allan, W. Joe Acton, Janet Barlow, Benjamin Barratt, David Beddows, William J. Bloss, Giulia Calzolai, David Carruthers, David C. Carslaw, Queenie Chan, Lia Chatzidiakou, Yang Chen, Leigh Crilley, Hugh Coe, Tie Dai, Ruth Doherty, Fengkui Duan, Pingqing Fu, Baozhu Ge, Maofa Ge, Daobo Guan, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Kebin He, Mathew Heal, Dwayne Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Xujiang Jiang, Rod Jones, Markus Kalberer, Frank J. Kelly, Louisa Kramer, Ben Langford, Chun Lin, Alastair C. Lewis, Jie Li, Weijun Li, Huan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Miranda Loh, Keding Lu, Franco Lucarelli, Graham Mann, Gordon McFiggans, Mark R. Miller, Graham Mills, Paul Monk, Eiko Nemitz, Fionna O'Connor, Bin Ouyang, Paul I. Palmer, Carl Percival, Olalekan Popoola, Claire Reeves, Andrew R. Rickard, Longyi Shao, Guangyu Shi, Dominick Spracklen, David Stevenson, Yele Sun, Zhiwei Sun, Shu Tao, Shengrui Tong, Qingqing Wang, Wenhua Wang, Xinming Wang, Xuejun Wang, Zifang Wang, Lianfang Wei, Lisa Whalley, Xuefang Wu, Zhijun Wu, Pinhua Xie, Fumo Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7519–7546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, 2019
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APHH-Beijing is a collaborative international research programme to study the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in Beijing. This introduction to the special issue provides an overview of (i) the APHH-Beijing programme, (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it and (iii) the air quality and meteorological conditions during joint intensive field campaigns as a core activity within APHH-Beijing.
Tom V. Kokkonen, Sue Grimmond, Sonja Murto, Huizhi Liu, Anu-Maija Sundström, and Leena Järvi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7001–7017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7001-2019, 2019
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This is the first study to evaluate and correct the WATCH WFDEI reanalysis product in a highly polluted urban environment. It gives an important understanding of the uncertainties in reanalysis products in local-scale urban modelling in polluted environments and identifies and corrects the most important variables in hydrological modelling. This is also the first study to examine the effects of haze on the local-scale urban hydrological cycle.
Dantong Liu, Rutambhara Joshi, Junfeng Wang, Chenjie Yu, James D. Allan, Hugh Coe, Michael J. Flynn, Conghui Xie, James Lee, Freya Squires, Simone Kotthaus, Sue Grimmond, Xinlei Ge, Yele Sun, and Pingqing Fu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6749–6769, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6749-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6749-2019, 2019
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This study provides source attribution and characterization of BC in the Beijing urban environment in both winter and summer. For the first time, the physically and chemically based source apportionments are compared to evaluate the primary source contribution and secondary processing of BC-containing particles. A method is proposed to isolate the BC from the transportation sector and coal combustion sources.
Jeronimo Escribano, Alessio Bozzo, Philippe Dubuisson, Johannes Flemming, Robin J. Hogan, Laurent C.-Labonnote, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 805–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-805-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-805-2019, 2019
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Accurate shortwave radiance computations are becoming increasingly important for some applications in atmospheric composition. In this work we propose a benchmark protocol and dataset to asses the accuracy and computing runtime of radiance calculations of radiative transfer models. It is applied to four models, showing the potential of this benchmark to evaluate the model performance under a variety of atmospheric conditions, viewing geometries, aerosol loading, and optical properties.
Roy M. Harrison, David C. S. Beddows, Mohammed S. Alam, Ajit Singh, James Brean, Ruixin Xu, Simone Kotthaus, and Sue Grimmond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 39–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-39-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-39-2019, 2019
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Particle number size distributions were measured simultaneously at five sites in London during a campaign. Observations are interpreted in terms of both evaporative shrinkage of traffic-generated particles and condensational growth, probably of traffic-generated particles under cool nocturnal conditions, as well as the influence of particles emitted from Heathrow Airport at a distance of about 22 km. The work highlights the highly dynamic behaviour of nanoparticles within the urban atmosphere.
Robin J. Hogan, Tristan Quaife, and Renato Braghiere
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, 2018
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This paper describes a fast new method for calculating how much sunlight is absorbed and reflected by forests and other types of vegetation, rigorously taking account of the complex 3-D structure. Careful evaluation shows it to perform well even in difficult scenes with snow on the ground. The method is suitable for use within the computer models used to make weather and climate forecasts, where it has the potential to improve predictions of near-surface temperature and photosynthesis rates.
Shannon L. Mason, J. Christine Chiu, Robin J. Hogan, and Lin Tian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11567–11589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11567-2017, 2017
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Airborne Doppler radar measurements are used to estimate the properties of tropical stratiform rain. Doppler velocity measurements provide sufficient information to estimate the rain rate over land and also to retrieve the raindrop size distribution over ocean, addressing major uncertainties in current satellite measurements of rain. These results suggest that EarthCARE, with the first space-borne Doppler radar, will facilitate improved global measurements of rain.
Ting Sun, Zhi-Hua Wang, Walter C. Oechel, and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2875–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2875-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2875-2017, 2017
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The diurnal hysteresis behaviour found between the net storage heat flux and net all-wave radiation has been captured in the Objective Hysteresis Model (OHM). To facilitate use, and enhance physical interpretations of the OHM coefficients, we develop the Analytical Objective Hysteresis Model (AnOHM) using an analytical solution of the one-dimensional advection–diffusion equation of coupled heat and liquid water transport in conjunction with the surface energy balance relationship.
Carole Helfter, Anja H. Tremper, Christoforos H. Halios, Simone Kotthaus, Alex Bjorkegren, C. Sue B. Grimmond, Janet F. Barlow, and Eiko Nemitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10543–10557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10543-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10543-2016, 2016
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There are relatively few long-term, direct measurements of pollutant emissions in urban settings. We present over 3 years of measurements of fluxes of CO, CO2 and CH4, study their respective temporal and spatial dynamics and offer an independent verification of the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. CO and CO2 were strongly controlled by traffic and well characterised by the inventory whilst measured CH4 was two-fold larger and linked to natural gas usage and perhaps biogenic sources.
Simone Kotthaus, Ewan O'Connor, Christoph Münkel, Cristina Charlton-Perez, Martial Haeffelin, Andrew M. Gabey, and C. Sue B. Grimmond
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3769–3791, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3769-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3769-2016, 2016
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Ceilometers lidars are useful to study clouds, aerosol layers and atmospheric boundary layer structures. As sensor optics and acquisition algorithms can strongly influence the observations, sensor specifics need to be incorporated into the physical interpretation. Here, recommendations are made for the operation and processing of profile observations from the widely deployed Vaisala CL31 ceilometer. Proposed corrections are shown to increase data quality and even data availability at times.
J. Lindén, C.S.B. Grimmond, and J. Esper
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 157–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-157-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-157-2015, 2015
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Long term meteorological records from stations associated with villages are generally classified as rural and assumed to have no urban influence. Using temperature sensor networks installed around two such stations, spatial variations of the same order magnitude as the long-term temperature trend from these stations were found. The potential bias in the long term series therefore warrants careful consideration in temperature trend evaluation also in village stations.
M. D. Fielding, J. C. Chiu, R. J. Hogan, G. Feingold, E. Eloranta, E. J. O'Connor, and M. P. Cadeddu
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2663–2683, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2663-2015, 2015
H. C. Ward, J. G. Evans, C. S. B. Grimmond, and J. Bradford
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 1385–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1385-2015, 2015
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Two-wavelength scintillometry, a ground-based remote sensing technique for deriving large-area heat fluxes, has been used over an urban area for the first time. The long data set enables investigation of the performance of the technique and characteristics of turbulent transport processes at sub-daily to inter-annual timescales. In this first paper, the structure parameters of temperature and humidity, and the correlation between temperature and humidity, are presented and analysed.
H. C. Ward, J. G. Evans, and C. S. B. Grimmond
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 1407–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1407-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1407-2015, 2015
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Two-wavelength scintillometry, a ground-based remote sensing technique for deriving large-area heat fluxes, has been used over an urban area for the first time. The long data set enables investigation of the performance of the technique and characteristics of turbulent transport processes at sub-daily to inter-annual timescales. In this second paper, sensible and latent heat fluxes representative of an area of 5--10 km2 are presented and analysed.
J. C. Chiu, J. A. Holmes, R. J. Hogan, and E. J. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8389–8401, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8389-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8389-2014, 2014
L. Järvi, C. S. B. Grimmond, M. Taka, A. Nordbo, H. Setälä, and I. B. Strachan
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1691–1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1691-2014, 2014
A. Font, C. S. B. Grimmond, J.-A. Morguí, S. Kotthaus, M. Priestman, and B. Barratt
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-13465-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-13465-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
H. C. Ward, J. G. Evans, and C. S. B. Grimmond
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4645–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4645-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4645-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric sciences
Development of the CMA-GFS-AERO 4D-Var assimilation system v1.0 – Part 1: System description and preliminary experimental results
Optimized dynamic mode decomposition for reconstruction and forecasting of atmospheric chemistry data
Interpolating turbulent heat fluxes missing from a prairie observation on the Tibetan Plateau using artificial intelligence models
Carbon dioxide plume dispersion simulated at the hectometer scale using DALES: model formulation and observational evaluation
Low-level jets in the North and Baltic seas: mesoscale model sensitivity and climatology using WRF V4.2.1
SynRad v1.0: a radar forward operator to simulate synthetic weather radar observations from volcanic ash clouds
Chempath 1.0: an open-source pathway analysis program for photochemical models
PALACE v1.0: Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model
Atmospheric moisture tracking with WAM2layers v3
A new set of indicators for model evaluation complementing FAIRMODE's modelling quality objective (MQO)
Impact of multiple radar wind profiler data assimilation on convective-scale short-term rainfall forecasts: OSSE studies over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region
New submodel for emissions from Explosive Volcanic ERuptions (EVER v1.1) within the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, version 2.55.1)
Quantifying the oscillatory evolution of simulated boundary-layer cloud fields using Gaussian process regression
Numerical investigations on the modelling of ultrafine particles in SSH-aerosol-v1.3a: size resolution and redistribution
The third Met Office Unified Model–JULES Regional Atmosphere and Land Configuration, RAL3
The sensitivity of aerosol data assimilation to vertical profiles: case study of dust storm assimilation with LOTOS-EUROS v2.2
Knowledge-inspired fusion strategies for the inference of PM2.5 values with a neural network
Tuning the ICON-A 2.6.4 climate model with machine-learning-based emulators and history matching
A novel method for quantifying the contribution of regional transport to PM2.5 in Beijing (2013–2020): combining machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis
Quantification of CO2 hotspot emissions from OCO-3 SAM CO2 satellite images using deep learning methods
Diagnosis of winter precipitation types using the spectral bin model (version 1DSBM-19M): comparison of five methods using ICE-POP 2018 field experiment data
Improving winter condition simulations in SURFEX-TEB v9.0 with a multi-layer snow model and ice
UA-ICON with the NWP physics package (version ua-icon-2.1): mean state and variability of the middle atmosphere
Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) 2.0: an improved research and stakeholder tool for monitoring total methane emissions with high resolution worldwide using TROPOMI satellite observations
HTAP3 Fires: towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts
Using a data-driven statistical model to better evaluate surface turbulent heat fluxes in weather and climate numerical models: a demonstration study
Pochva: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, and vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
ClimKern v1.2: a new Python package and kernel repository for calculating radiative feedbacks
Accounting for effects of coagulation and model uncertainties in particle number concentration estimates based on measurements from sampling lines – a Bayesian inversion approach with SLIC v1.0
Top-down CO emission estimates using TROPOMI CO data in the TM5-4DVAR (r1258) inverse modeling suit
The Multi-Compartment Hg Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP): mercury modeling to support international environmental policy
Similarity-based analysis of atmospheric organic compounds for machine learning applications
The Atmospheric Potential Oxygen forward Model Intercomparison Project (APO-MIP1): Evaluating simulated atmospheric transport of air-sea gas exchange tracers and APO flux products
Porting the Meso-NH atmospheric model on different GPU architectures for the next generation of supercomputers (version MESONH-v55-OpenACC)
Estimation of aerosol and cloud radiative heating rate in the tropical stratosphere using a radiative kernel method
Development of a High-Resolution Coupled SHiELD-MOM6 Model. Part I – Model Overview, Coupling Technique, and Validation in a Regional Setup
Evaluation of dust emission and land surface schemes in predicting a mega Asian dust storm over South Korea using WRF-Chem
CoCoMET v1.0: A Unified Open-Source Toolkit for Atmospheric Object Tracking and Analysis
Sensitivity studies of a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with WRF-Chem version 3.9.1 for improving particulate matter simulation accuracy
A Bayesian method for predicting background radiation at environmental monitoring stations in local-scale networks
Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle
Development of a fast radiative transfer model for ground-based microwave radiometers (ARMS-gb v1.0): validation and comparison to RTTOV-gb
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) High-Resolution Global Forecast Model version 1: an attempt to resolve monsoon prediction deadlock
Cell-tracking-based framework for assessing nowcasting model skill in reproducing growth and decay of convective rainfall
NeuralMie (v1.0): an aerosol optics emulator
A REtrieval Method for optical and physical Aerosol Properties in the stratosphere (REMAPv1)
Simulation performance of planetary boundary layer schemes in WRF v4.3.1 for near-surface wind over the western Sichuan Basin: a single-site assessment
FootNet v1.0: development of a machine learning emulator of atmospheric transport
Updates and evaluation of NOAA's online-coupled air quality model version 7 (AQMv7) within the Unified Forecast System
Quantifying the analysis uncertainty for nowcasting application
Yongzhu Liu, Xiaoye Zhang, Wei Han, Chao Wang, Wenxing Jia, Deying Wang, Zhaorong Zhuang, and Xueshun Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4855–4876, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4855-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4855-2025, 2025
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In order to investigate the feedbacks of chemical data assimilation on meteorological forecasts, we developed a strongly coupled aerosol–meteorology four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) assimilation system, CMA-GFS-AERO 4D-Var, based on the framework of the incremental analysis scheme of the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecasting System (CMA-GFS) operational global numerical weather model. The results show that assimilating BC (black carbon) observations can generate analysis increments not only for BC but also for atmospheric variables.
Meghana Velagar, Christoph Keller, and J. Nathan Kutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4667–4684, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4667-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4667-2025, 2025
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We develop the data-driven method of dynamic mode decomposition for producing a robust and stable surrogate reduced-order model of atmospheric chemistry dynamics. The model is computationally efficient, provides interpretable patterns of activity, and produces uncertainty quantification metrics. It is ideal for the forecasting of atmospheric chemistry in a computationally tractable manner.
Quanzhe Hou, Zhiqiu Gao, Zexia Duan, and Minghui Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4625–4641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4625-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4625-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates various machine learning and statistical methods for interpolating turbulent heat flux data over the Tibetan Plateau. The Transformer model showed the best performance, leading to the development of the Transformer_CNN model, which combines global and local attention mechanisms. Results show that Transformer_CNN outperforms the other models and was successfully applied to interpolate heat flux data from 2007 to 2016.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart J. H. van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, 2025
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We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in turbulent environments at a hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventories and online ecosystem fluxes. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate the strong potential of DALES to improve CO2 emission modeling and to support mitigation strategies.
Bjarke T. E. Olsen, Andrea N. Hahmann, Nicolas G. Alonso-de-Linaje, Mark Žagar, and Martin Dörenkämper
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4499–4533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4499-2025, 2025
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are strong winds in the lower atmosphere that are important for wind energy as turbines get taller. This study compares a weather model (WRF) with real data across five North and Baltic Sea sites. Adjusting the model improved accuracy over the widely used ERA5. In key offshore regions, LLJs occur 10–15 % of the time and significantly boost wind power, especially in spring and summer, contributing up to 30 % of total capacity in some areas.
Vishnu Nair, Anujah Mohanathan, Michael Herzog, David G. Macfarlane, and Duncan A. Robertson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4417–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4417-2025, 2025
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A numerical model that simulates the measurement processes behind the ground-based radars used to detect volcanic ash clouds is introduced. Using weather radars to detect volcanic clouds is not ideal, as fine ash particles are smaller than raindrops and remain undetected. We evaluate the performance of weather radars to study ash clouds and to identify optimal frequencies that balance the trade-off between a higher return signal and the higher path attenuation that comes at these higher frequencies.
Daniel Garduno Ruiz, Colin Goldblatt, and Anne-Sofie Ahm
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4433–4454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4433-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4433-2025, 2025
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Photochemical models describe how the composition of the atmosphere changes due to chemical reactions, transport, and other processes. These models are useful for studying the composition of the Earth's and other planets' atmospheres. Understanding the results of these models can be difficult. Here, we build on previous work to develop open-source code that can identify the reaction chains (pathways) that produce the results of these models, facilitating the understanding of these results.
Stefan Noll, Carsten Schmidt, Patrick Hannawald, Wolfgang Kausch, and Stefan Kimeswenger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4353–4398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4353-2025, 2025
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Non-thermal emission from chemical reactions in the Earth's middle und upper atmosphere strongly contributes to the brightness of the night sky below about 2.3 µm. The new Paranal Airglow Line And Continuum Emission model calculates the emission spectrum and its variability with an unprecedented accuracy. Relying on a large spectroscopic data set from astronomical spectrographs and theoretical molecular/atomic data, this model is valuable for airglow research and astronomical observatories.
Peter Kalverla, Imme Benedict, Chris Weijenborg, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4335–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4335-2025, 2025
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We introduce a new version of WAM2layers (Water Accounting Model – 2 layers), a computer program that tracks how the weather brings water from one place to another. It uses data from weather and climate models, whose resolution is steadily increasing. Processing the latest data had become a challenge, and the updates presented here ensure that WAM2layers runs smoothly again. We also made it easier to use the program and to understand its source code. This makes it more transparent, reliable, and easier to maintain.
Alexander de Meij, Cornelis Cuvelier, Philippe Thunis, and Enrico Pisoni
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4231–4245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4231-2025, 2025
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We assess relevance and utility indicators by evaluating nine Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service models in calculated air pollutant values. For NO2, the results highlight difficulties at traffic stations. For PM2.5 and PM10 the bias and winter–summer gradients reveal issues. O3 evaluation shows that seasonal gradients are useful. Overall, the indicators reveal model limitations, yet there is a need to reconsider the strictness of some indicators for certain pollutants.
Juan Zhao, Jianping Guo, and Xiaohui Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4075-2025, 2025
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A series of observing system simulation experiments are conducted to assess the impact of multiple radar wind profiler (RWP) networks on convective-scale numerical weather prediction. Results from three southwest-type heavy rainfall cases in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region suggest the added forecast skill of ridge and foothill networks associated with the Taihang Mountains over the existing RWP network. This research provides valuable guidance for designing optimal RWP networks in the region.
Matthias Kohl, Christoph Brühl, Jennifer Schallock, Holger Tost, Patrick Jöckel, Adrian Jost, Steffen Beirle, Michael Höpfner, and Andrea Pozzer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3985–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3985-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3985-2025, 2025
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SO2 from explosive volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere can oxidize and form sulfur aerosols, potentially persisting for several years. We developed a new submodel, Explosive Volcanic ERuptions (EVER), that seamlessly includes stratospheric volcanic SO2 emissions in global numerical simulations based on a novel standard historical model setup, successfully evaluated with satellite observations. Sensitivity studies on the Nabro eruption in 2011 evaluate different emission methods.
Gunho Loren Oh and Philip H. Austin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3921–3940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3921-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3921-2025, 2025
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It is difficult to study the behaviour of a cloud field due to internal fluctuations and observational noise. We perform a high-resolution simulation of the boundary-layer cloud field and introduce statistical and numerical techniques, including machine-learning models, to study the evolution of the cloud field, which shows a periodic behaviour. We aim to use the numerical techniques to identify the underlying behaviour within noisy observations.
Oscar Jacquot and Karine Sartelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3965–3984, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3965-2025, 2025
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Modelling the size distribution and the number concentration is important to represent ultrafine particles. A new analytic formulation is presented to compute coagulation partition coefficients, allowing us to lower the numerical diffusion associated with the resolution of aerosol dynamics. The significance of this effect is assessed in a 0D box model and over greater Paris with a chemistry transport model, using different size resolutions of the particle distribution.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3819–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3819-2025, 2025
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RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre- and sub-kilometre-scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and an improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Mijie Pang, Jianbing Jin, Ting Yang, Xi Chen, Arjo Segers, Batjargal Buyantogtokh, Yixuan Gu, Jiandong Li, Hai Xiang Lin, Hong Liao, and Wei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3781–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3781-2025, 2025
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Aerosol data assimilation has gained popularity as it combines the advantages of modelling and observation. However, few studies have addressed the challenges in the prior vertical structure. Different observations are assimilated to examine the sensitivity of assimilation to vertical structure. Results show that assimilation can optimize the dust field in general. However, if the prior introduces an incorrect structure, the assimilation can significantly deteriorate the integrity of the aerosol profile.
Matthieu Dabrowski, José Mennesson, Jérôme Riedi, Chaabane Djeraba, and Pierre Nabat
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3707–3733, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3707-2025, 2025
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This work focuses on the prediction of aerosol concentration values at the ground level, which are a strong indicator of air quality, using artificial neural networks. A study of different variables and their efficiency as inputs for these models is also proposed and reveals that the best results are obtained when using all of them. Comparison between network architectures and information fusion methods allows for the extraction of knowledge on the most efficient methods in the context of this study.
Pauline Bonnet, Lorenzo Pastori, Mierk Schwabe, Marco Giorgetta, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3681–3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3681-2025, 2025
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Tuning a climate model means adjusting uncertain parameters in the model to best match observations like the global radiation balance and cloud cover. This is usually done by running many simulations of the model with different settings, which can be time-consuming and relies heavily on expert knowledge. To make this process faster and more objective, we developed a machine learning emulator to create a large ensemble and apply a method called history matching to find the best settings.
Kang Hu, Hong Liao, Dantong Liu, Jianbing Jin, Lei Chen, Siyuan Li, Yangzhou Wu, Changhao Wu, Shitong Zhao, Xiaotong Jiang, Ping Tian, Kai Bi, Ye Wang, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3623–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3623-2025, 2025
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This study combines machine learning with concentration-weighted trajectory analysis to quantify regional transport PM2.5. From 2013–2020, local emissions dominated Beijing's pollution events. The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan reduced regional transport pollution, but the eastern region showed the smallest decrease. Beijing should prioritize local emission reduction while considering the east region's contributions in future strategies.
Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Pierre Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Grégoire Broquet, Gerrit Kuhlmann, and Marc Bocquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3607–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3607-2025, 2025
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We developed a deep learning method to estimate CO2 emissions from power plants using satellite images. Trained and validated on simulated data, our model accurately predicts emissions despite challenges like cloud cover. When applied to real OCO3 satellite images, the results closely match reported emissions. This study shows that neural networks trained on simulations can effectively analyse real satellite data, offering a new way to monitor CO2 emissions from space.
Wonbae Bang, Jacob T. Carlin, Kwonil Kim, Alexander V. Ryzhkov, Guosheng Liu, and GyuWon Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3559–3581, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3559-2025, 2025
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Microphysics model-based diagnosis, such as the spectral bin model (SBM), has recently been attempted to diagnose winter precipitation types. In this study, the accuracy of SBM-based precipitation type diagnosis is compared with other traditional methods. SBM has a relatively higher accuracy for dry-snow and wet-snow events, whereas it has lower accuracy for rain events. When the microphysics scheme in the SBM was optimized for the corresponding region, the accuracy for rain events improved.
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, Ludovic Bouilloud, Laura Pavan, and Virve Karsisto
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3453–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3453-2025, 2025
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In winter, snow- and ice-covered artificial surfaces are important aspects of the urban climate. They may influence the magnitude of the urban heat island effect, but this is still unclear. In this study, we improved the representation of the snow and ice cover in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban climate model. Evaluations have shown that the results are promising for using TEB to study the climate of cold cities.
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique A. Siddiqui, Claudia C. Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3359–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, 2025
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We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with an upper-atmospheric extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). We optimized the parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations and achieved realistic modeling of the thermal and dynamic states of the mesopause regions. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Lucas A. Estrada, Daniel J. Varon, Melissa Sulprizio, Hannah Nesser, Zichong Chen, Nicholas Balasus, Sarah E. Hancock, Megan He, James D. East, Todd A. Mooring, Alexander Oort Alonso, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Ilse Aben, Sabour Baray, Kevin W. Bowman, John R. Worden, Felipe J. Cardoso-Saldaña, Emily Reidy, and Daniel J. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3311-2025, 2025
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Reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a top policy concern for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. The Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) is an advanced, cloud-based software that translates satellite observations into actionable emissions data. Here we present IMI version 2.0 with vastly expanded capabilities. These updates enable a wider range of scientific and stakeholder applications from individual basin to global scales with continuous emissions monitoring.
Cynthia H. Whaley, Tim Butler, Jose A. Adame, Rupal Ambulkar, Steve R. Arnold, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Benjamin Gaubert, Douglas S. Hamilton, Min Huang, Hayley Hung, Johannes W. Kaiser, Jacek W. Kaminski, Christoph Knote, Gerbrand Koren, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Meiyun Lin, Tianjia Liu, Jianmin Ma, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Elisa Bergas Masso, Jessica L. McCarty, Mariano Mertens, Mark Parrington, Helene Peiro, Pallavi Saxena, Saurabh Sonwani, Vanisa Surapipith, Damaris Y. T. Tan, Wenfu Tang, Veerachai Tanpipat, Kostas Tsigaridis, Christine Wiedinmyer, Oliver Wild, Yuanyu Xie, and Paquita Zuidema
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3265–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3265-2025, 2025
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The multi-model experiment design of the HTAP3 Fires project takes a multi-pollutant approach to improving our understanding of transboundary transport of wildland fire and agricultural burning emissions and their impacts. The experiments are designed with the goal of answering science policy questions related to fires. The options for the multi-model approach, including inputs, outputs, and model setup, are discussed, and the official recommendations for the project are presented.
Maurin Zouzoua, Sophie Bastin, Fabienne Lohou, Marie Lothon, Marjolaine Chiriaco, Mathilde Jome, Cécile Mallet, Laurent Barthes, and Guylaine Canut
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3211–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3211-2025, 2025
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This study proposes using a statistical model to freeze errors due to differences in environmental forcing when evaluating the surface turbulent heat fluxes from numerical simulations with observations. The statistical model is first built with observations and then applied to the simulated environment to generate possibly observed fluxes. This novel method provides insight into differently evaluating the numerical formulation of turbulent heat fluxes with a long period of observational data.
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3175–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3175-2025, 2025
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This paper presents the result of many years of effort of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, and snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of the author's research on physical processes at the surface–atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.
Tyler P. Janoski, Ivan Mitevski, Ryan J. Kramer, Michael Previdi, and Lorenzo M. Polvani
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3065–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3065-2025, 2025
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We developed ClimKern, a Python package and radiative kernel repository, to simplify calculating radiative feedbacks and make climate sensitivity studies more reproducible. Testing of ClimKern with sample climate model data reveals that radiative kernel choice may be more important than previously thought, especially in polar regions. Our work highlights the need for kernel sensitivity analyses to be included in future studies.
Matti Niskanen, Aku Seppänen, Henri Oikarinen, Miska Olin, Panu Karjalainen, Santtu Mikkonen, and Kari Lehtinen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2983–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2983-2025, 2025
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Particle size is a key factor determining the properties of aerosol particles which have a major influence on the climate and on human health. When measuring the particle sizes, however, sometimes the sampling lines that transfer the aerosol to the measurement device distort the size distribution, making the measurement unreliable. We propose a method to correct for the distortions and estimate the true particle sizes, improving measurement accuracy.
Johann Rasmus Nüß, Nikos Daskalakis, Fabian Günther Piwowarczyk, Angelos Gkouvousis, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Maria Kanakidou, Maarten C. Krol, and Mihalis Vrekoussis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2861–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2861-2025, 2025
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We estimate carbon monoxide emissions through inverse modeling, an approach where measurements of tracers in the atmosphere are fed to a model to calculate backwards in time (inverse) where the tracers came from. We introduce measurements from a new satellite instrument and show that, in most places globally, these on their own sufficiently constrain the emissions. This alleviates the need for additional datasets, which could shorten the delay for future carbon monoxide source estimates.
Ashu Dastoor, Hélène Angot, Johannes Bieser, Flora Brocza, Brock Edwards, Aryeh Feinberg, Xinbin Feng, Benjamin Geyman, Charikleia Gournia, Yipeng He, Ian M. Hedgecock, Ilia Ilyin, Jane Kirk, Che-Jen Lin, Igor Lehnherr, Robert Mason, David McLagan, Marilena Muntean, Peter Rafaj, Eric M. Roy, Andrei Ryjkov, Noelle E. Selin, Francesco De Simone, Anne L. Soerensen, Frits Steenhuisen, Oleg Travnikov, Shuxiao Wang, Xun Wang, Simon Wilson, Rosa Wu, Qingru Wu, Yanxu Zhang, Jun Zhou, Wei Zhu, and Scott Zolkos
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2747–2860, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2747-2025, 2025
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This paper introduces the Multi-Compartment Mercury (Hg) Modeling and Analysis Project (MCHgMAP) aimed at informing the effectiveness evaluations of two multilateral environmental agreements: the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The experimental design exploits a variety of models (atmospheric, land, oceanic ,and multimedia mass balance models) to assess the short- and long-term influences of anthropogenic Hg releases into the environment.
Hilda Sandström and Patrick Rinke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2701–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2701-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has the potential to aid the identification of organic molecules involved in aerosol formation. Yet, progress is stalled by a lack of curated atmospheric molecular datasets. Here, we compared atmospheric compounds with large molecular datasets used in machine learning and found minimal overlap with similarity algorithms. Our result underlines the need for collaborative efforts to curate atmospheric molecular data to facilitate machine learning models in atmospheric sciences.
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, 2025
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We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 exchange products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Juan Escobar, Philippe Wautelet, Joris Pianezze, Florian Pantillon, Thibaut Dauhut, Christelle Barthe, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2679–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2679-2025, 2025
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The Meso-NH weather research code is adapted for GPUs using OpenACC, leading to significant performance and energy efficiency improvements. Called MESONH-v55-OpenACC, it includes enhanced memory management, communication optimizations and a new solver. On the AMD MI250X Adastra platform, it achieved up to 6× speedup and 2.3× energy efficiency gain compared to CPUs. Storm simulations at 100 m resolution show positive results, positioning the code for future use on exascale supercomputers.
Jie Gao, Yi Huang, Jonathon S. Wright, Ke Li, Tao Geng, and Qiurun Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2569-2025, 2025
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The aerosol in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is highly variable, and its radiative effect is poorly understood. To estimate this effect, the radiative kernel is constructed and applied. The results show that the kernels can reproduce aerosol radiative effects and are expected to simulate stratospheric aerosol radiative effects. This approach reduces computational expense, is consistent with radiative model calculations, and can be applied to atmospheric models with speed requirements.
Joseph Mouallem, Kun Gao, Brandon G. Reichl, Lauren Chilutti, Lucas Harris, Rusty Benson, Niki Zadeh, Jing Chen, Jan-Huey Chen, and Cheng Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1690, 2025
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We introduce a new high-resolution model that couple the atmosphere and ocean to better simulate extreme weather events. It combines GFDL’s advanced atmospheric and ocean models with a powerful coupling system that allows robust and efficient two-way interactions. Simulations show the model accurately captures hurricane behavior and its impact on the ocean. It also runs efficiently on supercomputers. This model is a key step toward improving extreme weather forecast.
Ji Won Yoon, Seungyeon Lee, Ebony Lee, and Seon Ki Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2303–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2303-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to predict a mega Asian dust storm (ADS) over South Korea on 28–29 March 2021. We assessed combinations of five dust emission and four land surface schemes by analyzing meteorological and air quality variables. The best scheme combination reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) for particulate matter 10 (PM10) by up to 29.6 %, demonstrating the highest performance.
Travis Hahn, Hershel Weiner, Calvin Brooks, Jie Xi Li, Siddhant Gupta, and Dié Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1328, 2025
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Understanding how clouds evolve is important for improving weather predictions, but existing tools for tracking cloud changes are complex and difficult to compare. To address this, we developed the Community Cloud Model Evaluation Toolkit (CoCoMET) that makes it easier to analyze clouds in both models and observations. By simplifying data processing, standardizing results, and introducing new analysis features, CoCoMET helps researchers better evaluate cloud behavior and improve models.
Jianyu Lin, Tie Dai, Lifang Sheng, Weihang Zhang, Shangfei Hai, and Yawen Kong
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2231–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2231-2025, 2025
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The effectiveness of this assimilation system and its sensitivity to the ensemble member size and length of the assimilation window are investigated. This study advances our understanding of the selection of basic parameters in the four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter assimilation system and the performance of ensemble simulation in a particulate-matter-polluted environment.
Jens Peter Karolus Wenceslaus Frankemölle, Johan Camps, Pieter De Meutter, and Johan Meyers
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1989–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1989-2025, 2025
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To detect anomalous radioactivity in the environment, it is paramount that we understand the natural background level. In this work, we propose a statistical model to describe the most likely background level and the associated uncertainty in a network of dose rate detectors. We train, verify, and validate the model using real environmental data. Using the model, we show that we can correctly predict the background level in a subset of the detector network during a known
anomalous event.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Yi-Ning Shi, Jun Yang, Wei Han, Lujie Han, Jiajia Mao, Wanlin Kan, and Fuzhong Weng
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1947–1964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1947-2025, 2025
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Direct assimilation of observations from ground-based microwave radiometers (GMRs) holds significant potential for improving forecast accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a crucial role in direct data assimilation. In this study, we introduce a new RTM, the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System – Ground-Based (ARMS-gb), designed to simulate brightness temperatures observed by GMRs along with their Jacobians. Several enhancements have been incorporated to achieve higher accuracy.
R. Phani Murali Krishna, Siddharth Kumar, A. Gopinathan Prajeesh, Peter Bechtold, Nils Wedi, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, B. Revanth Reddy, Snehlata Tirkey, Tanmoy Goswami, Radhika Kanase, Sahadat Sarkar, Medha Deshpande, and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1879–1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1879-2025, 2025
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The High-Resolution Global Forecast Model (HGFM) is an advanced iteration of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model. HGFM can produce forecasts at a spatial scale of ~6 km in tropics. It demonstrates improved accuracy in short- to medium-range weather prediction over the Indian region, with notable success in predicting extreme events. Further, the model will be entrusted to operational forecasting agencies after validation and testing.
Jenna Ritvanen, Seppo Pulkkinen, Dmitri Moisseev, and Daniele Nerini
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1851-2025, 2025
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Nowcasting models struggle with the rapid evolution of heavy rain, and common verification methods are unable to describe how accurately the models predict the growth and decay of heavy rain. We propose a framework to assess model performance. In the framework, convective cells are identified and tracked in the forecasts and observations, and the model skill is then evaluated by comparing differences between forecast and observed cells. We demonstrate the framework with four open-source models.
Andrew Geiss and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1809-2025, 2025
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Particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly impact the planet's energy budget, and atmosphere simulations require accurate representation of their interaction with light. This work introduces two approaches to represent light scattering by small particles. The first is a scattering simulator based on Mie theory implemented in Python. The second is a neural network emulator that is more accurate than existing methods and is fast enough to be used in climate and weather simulations.
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Beiping Luo, Gabriel Chiodo, Graham Mann, and Thomas Peter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-145, 2025
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Aerosol particles in the stratosphere affect our climate. Climate models therefore need an accurate description of their properties and evolution. Satellites measure how strongly aerosol particles extinguish light passing through the stratosphere. We describe a method to use such aerosol extinction data to retrieve the number and sizes of the aerosol particles and calculate their optical effects. The resulting data sets for models are validated against ground-based and balloon observations.
Qin Wang, Bo Zeng, Gong Chen, and Yaoting Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1769-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in near-surface wind fields over the Sichuan Basin, China. Using 112 sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and focusing on 28 wind events, it is found that wind direction was less sensitive to the PBL schemes. The quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) scheme captured temporal variations best, while the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme had the least error in wind speed.
Tai-Long He, Nikhil Dadheech, Tammy M. Thompson, and Alexander J. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1661–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1661-2025, 2025
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It is computationally expensive to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions using atmospheric observations. This is partly due to the detailed model used to represent atmospheric transport. We demonstrate how a machine learning (ML) model can be used to simulate high-resolution atmospheric transport. This type of ML model will help estimate GHG emissions using dense observations, which are becoming increasingly common with the proliferation of urban monitoring networks and geostationary satellites.
Wei Li, Beiming Tang, Patrick C. Campbell, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker, Zachary Moon, Daniel Tong, Jianping Huang, Kai Wang, Ivanka Stajner, and Raffaele Montuoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1635–1660, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1635-2025, 2025
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The study describes the updates of NOAA's current UFS-AQMv7 air quality forecast model by incorporating the latest scientific and structural changes in CMAQv5.4. An evaluation during the summer of 2023 shows that the updated model overall improves the simulation of MDA8 O3 by reducing the bias by 8%–12% in the contiguous US. PM2.5 predictions have mixed results due to wildfire, highlighting the need for future refinements.
Yanwei Zhu, Aitor Atencia, Markus Dabernig, and Yong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1545-2025, 2025
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Most works have delved into convective weather nowcasting, and only a few works have discussed the nowcasting uncertainty for variables at the surface level. Hence, we proposed a method to estimate uncertainty. Generating appropriate noises associated with the characteristic of the error in analysis can simulate the uncertainty of nowcasting. This method can contribute to the estimation of near–surface analysis uncertainty in both nowcasting applications and ensemble nowcasting development.
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Short summary
Cities' materials and forms impact radiative fluxes. We evaluate the SPARTACUS-Urban multi-layer approach to modelling longwave radiation, describing realistic 3D geometry statistically using the explicit DART (Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer) model. The temperature configurations used are derived from thermal camera observations. SPARTACUS-Urban accurately predicts longwave fluxes, with a low computational time (cf. DART), but has larger errors with sunlit/shaded surface temperatures.
Cities' materials and forms impact radiative fluxes. We evaluate the SPARTACUS-Urban multi-layer...
