Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models

Menut, Laurent

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023

Articles | Volume 16, issue 14

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 14

Model evaluation paper

|

27 Jul 2023

Model evaluation paper |

| 27 Jul 2023

Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models

Laurent Menut

Data sets

The CHIMERE chemistry-transport model v2020 IPSL Data Catalog https://doi.org/10.14768/8afd9058-909c-4827-94b8-69f05f7bb46d

Short summary

This study analyzes forecasts that were made in 2021 to help trigger measurements during the CADDIWA experiment. The WRF and CHIMERE models were run each day, and the first goal is to quantify the variability of the forecast as a function of forecast leads and forecast location. The possibility of using the different leads as an ensemble is also tested. For some locations, the correlation scores are better with this approach. This could be tested on operational forecast chains in the future.