Articles | Volume 16, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023
Methods for assessment of models
 | 
18 Apr 2023
Methods for assessment of models |  | 18 Apr 2023

The emergence of the Gulf Stream and interior western boundary as key regions to constrain the future North Atlantic carbon uptake

Nadine Goris, Klaus Johannsen, and Jerry Tjiputra

Model code and software

Genetic algorithm for regional optimisation of Emergent Constraints in the surface North Atlantic (v1.3) Klaus Johannsen https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7037947

Genetic algorithm for regional optimisation of Emergent Constraints in water column North Atlantic (v1.3) Klaus Johannsen https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7037981

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Short summary
Climate projections of a high-CO2 future are highly uncertain. A new study provides a novel approach to identifying key regions that dynamically explain the model uncertainty. To yield an accurate estimate of the future North Atlantic carbon uptake, we find that a correct simulation of the upper- and interior-ocean volume transport at 25–30° N is key. However, results indicate that models rarely perform well for both indicators and point towards inconsistencies within the model ensemble.