Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
22 Apr 2022
Model evaluation paper |
| 22 Apr 2022
| 22 Apr 2022
Precipitation over southern Africa: is there consensus among global climate models (GCMs), regional climate models (RCMs) and observational data?
Maria Chara Karypidou
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology,
Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki,
Greece
Eleni Katragkou
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology,
Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki,
Greece
Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, Bergen, Norway
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Cited
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects A. Akinsanola et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4187-6
- Climate oscillation impacts on water supply augmentation planning S. Fletcher et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2215681120
- Improving Daily CMIP6 Precipitation in Southern Africa Through Bias Correction—Part 1: Spatiotemporal Characteristics A. Addisuu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13050095
- Inter-model diversity among CMIP6 models in simulating summer precipitation over Zambia C. Liapapa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2026.100860
- Spatio-temporal trends in extreme climatic variables: a focus in southern Ethiopia D. Debisa et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-025-07019-9
- The changing pattern of global teleconnection and the seasonal precipitation in the High Mountain Asia region S. Roy & C. Singh https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07300-4
- Robustness of climate indices relevant for agriculture in Africa deduced from GCMs and RCMs against reanalysis and gridded observations D. Abel et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06956-8
- CMIP5 and CMIP6: contrasting perspectives on Nigeria’s climate transformation B. Tanimu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05272-3
- Strong intermodel differences and biases in CMIP6 simulations of PM2.5, aerosol optical depth, and precipitation over Africa C. Toolan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10523-2025
- Climate response of precipitation over High Mountain Asia and changing teleconnection patterns to the future socio-economic scenarios S. Roy & C. Singh https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08437-0
- Some like it hot, but others might not: the implications of climate change for the conservation of South African freshwater crab species P. Grobler et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605326103123
- Development of climate indices relevant for agriculture in Africa under different climate change scenarios based on GCM and RCM ensembles K. Ziegler et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f94
- Comparative analysis of high-resolution CMIP6 GCM and CMIP5 RCM: unveiling biases and advancements in simulating compound extreme events in China L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07571-x
- Comparative analysis of high-resolution GCMs and RCMs ensembles in simulating and projecting compound extreme events in China Q. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108917
- An intelligent deep learning-based approach for downscaling atmospheric general circulation model outputs Y. Kheyruri et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-024-01477-2
- The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble over southern Africa M. Karypidou et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023
- Monthly Scale Validation of Climate Models’ Outputs Against Gridded Data over South Africa H. Chauke & R. Pongrácz https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16101200
- Uncertainties in highresmip models in simulating rainfall over West Africa based on the choice of reference data K. Yamoah et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06021-4
- Modeling future streamflow under climate and land use scenarios in the lower Okavango River basin K. Negussie et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsrma.2026.1773448
- Warming of the northern tropical Atlantic intensifies aridity in southeastern Africa T. Ngassa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100719
- Exploring the influence of improved horizontal resolution on extreme precipitation in Southern Africa major river basins: insights from CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations S. Samuel et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07325-9
- On the solid and liquid precipitation characteristics over the North-West Himalayan region around the turn of the century D. Banerjee & C. Singh https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06325-x
- The impact of the Agulhas Current system on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future N. Tim et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023
- Verification of a global weather forecasting system for decision-making in farming over Africa S. Kartsios et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-023-01136-y
- Post-2000 greening of Kalahari Desert and southern African grasslands reduces food and economic insecurity in Africa D. Nath et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf23a
- Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa— assessment of the historical simulations S. Samuel et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03530-3
- Prediction of climate change impacts on availability of surface water resources in the semi-arid Tugwi Mukosi catchment of Zimbabwe S. Dzirekwa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01691
- Quantification of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in the Upper Tekeze basin in the future with two ensemble strategies K. Reda et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05402-5
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects A. Akinsanola et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4187-6
- Climate oscillation impacts on water supply augmentation planning S. Fletcher et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2215681120
- Improving Daily CMIP6 Precipitation in Southern Africa Through Bias Correction—Part 1: Spatiotemporal Characteristics A. Addisuu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13050095
- Inter-model diversity among CMIP6 models in simulating summer precipitation over Zambia C. Liapapa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2026.100860
- Spatio-temporal trends in extreme climatic variables: a focus in southern Ethiopia D. Debisa et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-025-07019-9
- The changing pattern of global teleconnection and the seasonal precipitation in the High Mountain Asia region S. Roy & C. Singh https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07300-4
- Robustness of climate indices relevant for agriculture in Africa deduced from GCMs and RCMs against reanalysis and gridded observations D. Abel et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06956-8
- CMIP5 and CMIP6: contrasting perspectives on Nigeria’s climate transformation B. Tanimu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05272-3
- Strong intermodel differences and biases in CMIP6 simulations of PM2.5, aerosol optical depth, and precipitation over Africa C. Toolan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10523-2025
- Climate response of precipitation over High Mountain Asia and changing teleconnection patterns to the future socio-economic scenarios S. Roy & C. Singh https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08437-0
- Some like it hot, but others might not: the implications of climate change for the conservation of South African freshwater crab species P. Grobler et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605326103123
- Development of climate indices relevant for agriculture in Africa under different climate change scenarios based on GCM and RCM ensembles K. Ziegler et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f94
- Comparative analysis of high-resolution CMIP6 GCM and CMIP5 RCM: unveiling biases and advancements in simulating compound extreme events in China L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07571-x
- Comparative analysis of high-resolution GCMs and RCMs ensembles in simulating and projecting compound extreme events in China Q. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108917
- An intelligent deep learning-based approach for downscaling atmospheric general circulation model outputs Y. Kheyruri et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-024-01477-2
- The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble over southern Africa M. Karypidou et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023
- Monthly Scale Validation of Climate Models’ Outputs Against Gridded Data over South Africa H. Chauke & R. Pongrácz https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16101200
- Uncertainties in highresmip models in simulating rainfall over West Africa based on the choice of reference data K. Yamoah et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06021-4
- Modeling future streamflow under climate and land use scenarios in the lower Okavango River basin K. Negussie et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsrma.2026.1773448
- Warming of the northern tropical Atlantic intensifies aridity in southeastern Africa T. Ngassa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100719
- Exploring the influence of improved horizontal resolution on extreme precipitation in Southern Africa major river basins: insights from CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations S. Samuel et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07325-9
- On the solid and liquid precipitation characteristics over the North-West Himalayan region around the turn of the century D. Banerjee & C. Singh https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06325-x
- The impact of the Agulhas Current system on precipitation in southern Africa in regional climate simulations covering the recent past and future N. Tim et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023
- Verification of a global weather forecasting system for decision-making in farming over Africa S. Kartsios et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-023-01136-y
- Post-2000 greening of Kalahari Desert and southern African grasslands reduces food and economic insecurity in Africa D. Nath et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf23a
- Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa— assessment of the historical simulations S. Samuel et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03530-3
- Prediction of climate change impacts on availability of surface water resources in the semi-arid Tugwi Mukosi catchment of Zimbabwe S. Dzirekwa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01691
- Quantification of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in the Upper Tekeze basin in the future with two ensemble strategies K. Reda et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05402-5
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Nov 2026
Short summary
The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages in the coming decades. Reliable climatic information is therefore necessary for the optimal adaptation of local communities. In this work we show that regional climate models are reliable tools for the simulation of precipitation over southern Africa. However, there is still a great need for the expansion and maintenance of observational data.
The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is...
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