Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2063–2084, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2063-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2063–2084, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2063-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model description paper
10 Mar 2022
Model description paper
| 10 Mar 2022
The linear feedback precipitation model (LFPM 1.0) – a simple and efficient model for orographic precipitation in the context of landform evolution modeling
Stefan Hergarten and Jörg Robl
Related authors
Stefan Hergarten and Alexa Pietrek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-605, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The transition from hillslopes to channelized flow is typically attributed to a threshold catchment size in landform evolution models. Here we propose an alternative concept directly based on topography. Using this concept, channels and hillslopes self-organize, whereby the catchment size of the channel heads varies over some range. Our numerical results suggest that this concept works better than the established idea of a strict threshold catchment size.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 671–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many studies on modeling landform evolution have focused on mountain ranges, while large parts of Earth's surface are quite flat and alluvial plains have been preferred locations for human settlements. Conducting large-scale simulations of fluvial erosion and sediment transport, this study reveals that rivers in a tectonically inactive foreland are much more dynamic than rivers in a mountain range; the local redistribution of deposits in the foreland is the main driver of the dynamics.
Moritz Liebl, Jörg Robl, Stefan Hergarten, David Lundbek Egholm, and Kurt Stüwe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-352, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we benchmark a topography-based model for glacier erosion (OpenLEM) with a well-established process-based model (iSOSIA). Our experiments show that large-scale erosion patterns and, in particular, the transformation of valley length geometry from fluvial to glacial conditions are very similar in both models. This finding enables the application of OpenLEM to study the influence of climate and tectonics on glaciated mountains with reasonable computational effort on standard PCs.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 937–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to modeling glacial erosion on large scales. The formalism is similar to large-scale models of fluvial erosion, so glacial and fluvial processes can be easily combined. The model is simpler and numerically less demanding than established models based on a more detailed description of the ice flux. The numerical implementation almost achieves the efficiency of purely fluvial models, so that simulations over millions of years can be performed on standard PCs.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Jörg Robl, Günther Prasicek, Stefan Hergarten, Daniel Hölbling, Lorena Abad, and Zahra Dabiri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study relies on topography to simulate the origin and displacement of potentially river-blocking landslides. It highlights a continuous range of simulated landslide dams that go unnoticed in the field due to their small scale. The computation results show that landslide-dammed lake volume can be estimated from upstream drainage area and landslide volume, thus enabling an efficient hazard assessment of possible landslide-dammed lake volume – and flooding magnitude in case of dam failure.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 841–854, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-841-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Many contemporary models of large-scale fluvial erosion focus on the detachment-limited regime where all material entrained by the river is immediately excavated. This limitation facilitates the comparison with real river profiles and strongly reduces the numerical complexity. Here a simple formulation for the opposite case, transport-limited erosion, and a new numerical scheme that achieves almost the same numerical efficiency as detachment-limited models are presented.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 367–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-367-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Models of fluvial erosion have a long history in landform evolution modeling. Interactions between rivers and processes acting at hillslopes (e.g., landslides) are receiving growing interest in this context. While present-day computer capacities allow for applying such coupled models, there is still a scaling problem when considering rivers to be linear elements on a topography. Based on a reinterpretation of old empirical results, this study presents a new approach to overcome this problem.
Georg Trost, Jörg Robl, Stefan Hergarten, and Franz Neubauer
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 69–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-69-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-69-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of the drainage system in the Eastern Alps is inherently linked to different tectonic stages. This leads to a situation in which major orogen-parallel alpine rivers, such as the Salzach and the Enns, are characterized by elongated east–west-oriented catchments. We investigate the stability of present-day drainage divides and the stability of reconstructed paleo-drainage systems. Our results indicate a progressive stability of the network towards the present-day situation.
Stefan Hergarten and Thomas Kenkmann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 459–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-459-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-459-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals that worldwide mean erosion rates on the million-year timescale are very similar to present-day erosion rates in contrast to the majority of the previously published results. Concerning the dependence of erosion on climate, we found that the long-term erosion efficacy of the tropical zone has been about 5 times higher than that of the cold zones, while the erosional efficacy of the present-day arid zone has been as high as that of the temperate zone.
S. Hergarten, J. Robl, and K. Stüwe
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Longitudinal river profiles are increasingly used for unraveling the tectonic history on a regional scale. In the last years, the introduction of the so-called chi transform brought significant technical progress, but this method is still limited to the domain governed by fluvial erosion covering only a small part of the surface. Here we present and compare extensions of the method towards smaller catchment sizes where hillslope processes or debris flows significantly contribute to erosion.
S. Hergarten and J. Robl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 671–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-671-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-671-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches and debris flows are abundant natural hazards in mountainous regions. Numerical models describing rapid mass movements are essential for hazard studies and mitigation strategies, but only a few software tools are available for this purpose. This paper presents a new method using the shallow water equations widely applied to lakes and oceans. It introduces appropriate correction terms for steep terrain and can be implemented in a variety of fluid-dynamics software packages.
S. Hergarten, G. Winkler, and S. Birk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4277–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4277-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4277-2014, 2014
S. Hergarten, J. Robl, and K. Stüwe
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-97-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-97-2014, 2014
Stefan Hergarten and Alexa Pietrek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-605, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The transition from hillslopes to channelized flow is typically attributed to a threshold catchment size in landform evolution models. Here we propose an alternative concept directly based on topography. Using this concept, channels and hillslopes self-organize, whereby the catchment size of the channel heads varies over some range. Our numerical results suggest that this concept works better than the established idea of a strict threshold catchment size.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 671–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many studies on modeling landform evolution have focused on mountain ranges, while large parts of Earth's surface are quite flat and alluvial plains have been preferred locations for human settlements. Conducting large-scale simulations of fluvial erosion and sediment transport, this study reveals that rivers in a tectonically inactive foreland are much more dynamic than rivers in a mountain range; the local redistribution of deposits in the foreland is the main driver of the dynamics.
Moritz Liebl, Jörg Robl, Stefan Hergarten, David Lundbek Egholm, and Kurt Stüwe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-352, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we benchmark a topography-based model for glacier erosion (OpenLEM) with a well-established process-based model (iSOSIA). Our experiments show that large-scale erosion patterns and, in particular, the transformation of valley length geometry from fluvial to glacial conditions are very similar in both models. This finding enables the application of OpenLEM to study the influence of climate and tectonics on glaciated mountains with reasonable computational effort on standard PCs.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 937–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to modeling glacial erosion on large scales. The formalism is similar to large-scale models of fluvial erosion, so glacial and fluvial processes can be easily combined. The model is simpler and numerically less demanding than established models based on a more detailed description of the ice flux. The numerical implementation almost achieves the efficiency of purely fluvial models, so that simulations over millions of years can be performed on standard PCs.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Jörg Robl, Günther Prasicek, Stefan Hergarten, Daniel Hölbling, Lorena Abad, and Zahra Dabiri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study relies on topography to simulate the origin and displacement of potentially river-blocking landslides. It highlights a continuous range of simulated landslide dams that go unnoticed in the field due to their small scale. The computation results show that landslide-dammed lake volume can be estimated from upstream drainage area and landslide volume, thus enabling an efficient hazard assessment of possible landslide-dammed lake volume – and flooding magnitude in case of dam failure.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 841–854, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-841-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Many contemporary models of large-scale fluvial erosion focus on the detachment-limited regime where all material entrained by the river is immediately excavated. This limitation facilitates the comparison with real river profiles and strongly reduces the numerical complexity. Here a simple formulation for the opposite case, transport-limited erosion, and a new numerical scheme that achieves almost the same numerical efficiency as detachment-limited models are presented.
Stefan Hergarten
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 367–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-367-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Models of fluvial erosion have a long history in landform evolution modeling. Interactions between rivers and processes acting at hillslopes (e.g., landslides) are receiving growing interest in this context. While present-day computer capacities allow for applying such coupled models, there is still a scaling problem when considering rivers to be linear elements on a topography. Based on a reinterpretation of old empirical results, this study presents a new approach to overcome this problem.
Georg Trost, Jörg Robl, Stefan Hergarten, and Franz Neubauer
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 69–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-69-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-69-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of the drainage system in the Eastern Alps is inherently linked to different tectonic stages. This leads to a situation in which major orogen-parallel alpine rivers, such as the Salzach and the Enns, are characterized by elongated east–west-oriented catchments. We investigate the stability of present-day drainage divides and the stability of reconstructed paleo-drainage systems. Our results indicate a progressive stability of the network towards the present-day situation.
Stefan Hergarten and Thomas Kenkmann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 459–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-459-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-459-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals that worldwide mean erosion rates on the million-year timescale are very similar to present-day erosion rates in contrast to the majority of the previously published results. Concerning the dependence of erosion on climate, we found that the long-term erosion efficacy of the tropical zone has been about 5 times higher than that of the cold zones, while the erosional efficacy of the present-day arid zone has been as high as that of the temperate zone.
S. Hergarten, J. Robl, and K. Stüwe
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Longitudinal river profiles are increasingly used for unraveling the tectonic history on a regional scale. In the last years, the introduction of the so-called chi transform brought significant technical progress, but this method is still limited to the domain governed by fluvial erosion covering only a small part of the surface. Here we present and compare extensions of the method towards smaller catchment sizes where hillslope processes or debris flows significantly contribute to erosion.
S. Hergarten and J. Robl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 671–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-671-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-671-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches and debris flows are abundant natural hazards in mountainous regions. Numerical models describing rapid mass movements are essential for hazard studies and mitigation strategies, but only a few software tools are available for this purpose. This paper presents a new method using the shallow water equations widely applied to lakes and oceans. It introduces appropriate correction terms for steep terrain and can be implemented in a variety of fluid-dynamics software packages.
S. Hergarten, G. Winkler, and S. Birk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4277–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4277-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4277-2014, 2014
S. Hergarten, J. Robl, and K. Stüwe
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-97-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-97-2014, 2014
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Lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) is a major source of NOx. Hence, it is crucial to improve the prediction accuracy of lightning and LNOx in chemical climate models. By modifying existing lightning schemes and testing them in the chemical climate model CHASER, we improved the prediction accuracy of lightning in CHASER. Different lightning schemes respond very differently under global warming, which indicates further research is needed considering the reproducibility of long-term trends of lightning.
Wan-Ling Tseng, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Yung-Yao Lan, Wei-Liang Lee, Chia-Ying Tu, Pei-Hsuan Kuo, Ben-Jei Tsuang, and Hsin-Chien Liang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5529–5546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5529-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5529-2022, 2022
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We show that coupling a high-resolution one-column ocean model to three atmospheric general circulation models dramatically improves Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations. It suggests two major improvements to the coupling process in the preconditioning phase and strongest convection phase over the Maritime Continent. Our results demonstrate a simple but effective way to significantly improve MJO simulations and potentially seasonal to subseasonal prediction.
Sol Kim, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Guan, and John C. H. Chiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5461–5480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5461-2022, 2022
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The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is a state-of-the-science Earth system model developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). Understanding how the water cycle behaves in this model is of particular importance to the DOE’s mission. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) – which are crucial to the global water cycle – move vast amounts of water vapor through the sky and produce rain and snow. We find that this model reliably represents atmospheric rivers around the world.
Timothy O. Hodson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5481–5487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5481-2022, 2022
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The task of evaluating competing models is fundamental to science. Models are evaluated based on an objective function, the choice of which ultimately influences what scientists learn from their observations. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) are two such functions. Both are widely used, yet there remains enduring confusion over their use. This article reviews the theoretical justification behind their usage, as well as alternatives for when they are not suitable.
Lingcheng Li, Gautam Bisht, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5489–5510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5489-2022, 2022
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Land surface heterogeneity plays a critical role in the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Our study systematically quantified the effects of four dominant heterogeneity sources on water and energy partitioning via Sobol' indices. We found that atmospheric forcing and land use land cover are the most dominant heterogeneity sources in determining spatial variability of water and energy partitioning. Our findings can help prioritize the future development of land surface models.
Yoann Tellier, Cyril Crevoisier, Raymond Armante, Jean-Louis Dufresne, and Nicolas Meilhac
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5211–5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5211-2022, 2022
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Accurate radiative transfer models (RTMs) are required to improve climate model simulations. We describe the module named 4A-Flux, which is implemented into 4A/OP RTM, aimed at calculating spectral longwave radiative fluxes given a description of the surface, atmosphere, and spectroscopy. In Pincus et al. (2020), 4A-Flux has shown good agreement with state-of-the-art RTMs. Here, it is applied to perform sensitivity studies and will be used to improve the understanding of radiative flux modeling.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Khachik Sargsyan, Chang Liao, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5021–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022, 2022
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The runoff outputs in Earth system model simulations involve high uncertainty, which needs to be constrained by parameter calibration. In this work, we used a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to efficiently calibrate the runoff-generation processes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model v1 at a global scale. The model performance was improved compared to the default parameter after calibration, and the associated parametric uncertainty was significantly constrained.
Samuel Rémy, Zak Kipling, Vincent Huijnen, Johannes Flemming, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Melanie Ades, Richard Engelen, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4881–4912, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4881-2022, 2022
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This article describes a new version of IFS-AER, the tropospheric aerosol scheme used to provide global aerosol products within the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) cycle. Several components of the model have been updated, such as the dynamical dust and sea salt aerosol emission schemes. New deposition schemes have also been incorporated but are not yet used operationally. This new version of IFS-AER has been evaluated and shown to have a greater skill than previous versions.
Deborah Zani, Veiko Lehsten, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4913–4940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4913-2022, 2022
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The prediction of species migration under rapid climate change remains uncertain. In this paper, we evaluate the importance of the mechanisms underlying plant migration and increase the performance in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GM 1.0. The improved model will allow us to understand past vegetation dynamics and predict the future redistribution of species in a context of global change.
Jingzhe Sun, Yingjing Jiang, Shaoqing Zhang, Weimin Zhang, Lv Lu, Guangliang Liu, Yuhu Chen, Xiang Xing, Xiaopei Lin, and Lixin Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4805–4830, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4805-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4805-2022, 2022
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An online ensemble coupled data assimilation system with the Community Earth System Model is designed and evaluated. This system uses the memory-based information transfer approach which avoids frequent I/O operations. The observations of surface pressure, sea surface temperature, and in situ temperature and salinity profiles can be effectively assimilated into the coupled model. That will facilitate a long-term high-resolution climate reanalysis once the algorithm efficiency is much improved.
Guillaume Pirot, Ranee Joshi, Jérémie Giraud, Mark Douglas Lindsay, and Mark Walter Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4689–4708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4689-2022, 2022
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Results of a survey launched among practitioners in the mineral industry show that despite recognising the importance of uncertainty quantification it is not very well performed due to lack of data, time requirements, poor tracking of interpretations and relative complexity of uncertainty quantification. To alleviate the latter, we provide an open-source set of local and global indicators to measure geological uncertainty among an ensemble of geological models.
Zhiping Tian, Dabang Jiang, Ran Zhang, and Baohuang Su
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4469–4487, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4469-2022, 2022
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We present an experimental design for a new set of transient experiments for the Holocene from 11.5 ka to the preindustrial period (1850) with a relatively high-resolution Earth system model. Model boundary conditions include time-varying full and single forcing of orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, and ice sheets. The simulations will help to study the mean climate trend and abrupt climate changes through the Holocene in response to both full and single external forcings.
James R. Christian, Kenneth L. Denman, Hakase Hayashida, Amber M. Holdsworth, Warren G. Lee, Olivier G. J. Riche, Andrew E. Shao, Nadja Steiner, and Neil C. Swart
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4393–4424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4393-2022, 2022
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The ocean chemistry and biology modules of the latest version of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM5) are described in detail and evaluated against observations and other Earth system models. In the basic CanESM5 model, ocean biogeochemistry is similar to CanESM2 but embedded in a new ocean circulation model. In addition, an entirely new model, the Canadian Ocean Ecosystem model (CanESM5-CanOE), was developed. The most significant difference is that CanOE explicitly includes iron.
Pengfei Xue, Xinyu Ye, Jeremy S. Pal, Philip Y. Chu, Miraj B. Kayastha, and Chenfu Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4425–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4425-2022, 2022
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The Great Lakes are the world's largest freshwater system. They are a key element in regional climate influencing local weather patterns and climate processes. Many of these complex processes are regulated by interactions of the atmosphere, lake, ice, and surrounding land areas. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes.
Jiangbo Jin, Run Guo, Minghua Zhang, Guangqing Zhou, and Qingcun Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4259–4273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4259-2022, 2022
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In this paper, the inclusion of tides in a global model via the explicit calculation of the tide-generating force based on the positions of the sun and moon is proposed, rather than the traditional method of including about eight tidal constituents with empirical amplitudes and frequencies. The new scheme can better simulate the diurnal and spatial characteristics of the tidal potential of spring and neap tides as well as the spatial patterns and magnitudes of major tidal constituents.
George K. Georgiou, Theodoros Christoudias, Yiannis Proestos, Jonilda Kushta, Michael Pikridas, Jean Sciare, Chrysanthos Savvides, and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4129–4146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4129-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the skill of the WRF-Chem model to perform high-resolution air quality forecasts (including ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and fine particulate matter) over the Eastern Mediterranean, during winter and summer. We compare the forecast output to observational data from background and urban locations and the forecast output from CAMS. WRF-Chem was found to forecast the concentrations and diurnal profiles of gas-phase pollutants in urban areas with higher accuracy.
Bin Mu, Yuehan Cui, Shijin Yuan, and Bo Qin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4105–4127, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4105-2022, 2022
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An ENSO deep learning forecast model (ENSO-MC) is built to simulate the spatial evolution of sea surface temperature, analyse the precursor and identify the sensitive area. The results reveal the pronounced subsurface features before different types of events and indicate that oceanic thermal anomaly in the central and western Pacific provides a key long-term memory for predictions, demonstrating the potential usage of the ENSO-MC model in simulation, understanding and observations of ENSO.
Xin Wang, Yilun Han, Wei Xue, Guangwen Yang, and Guang J. Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3923–3940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3923-2022, 2022
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This study uses a set of deep neural networks to learn a parameterization scheme from a superparameterized general circulation model (GCM). After being embedded in a realistically configurated GCM, the parameterization scheme performs stably in long-term climate simulations and reproduces reasonable climatology and climate variability. This success is the first for long-term stable climate simulations using machine learning parameterization under real geographical boundary conditions.
Xue Zheng, Qing Li, Tian Zhou, Qi Tang, Luke P. Van Roekel, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Hailong Wang, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3941–3967, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3941-2022, 2022
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We document the model experiments for the future climate projection by E3SMv1.0. At the highest future emission scenario, E3SMv1.0 projects a strong surface warming with rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land runoff. Specifically, we detect a significant polar amplification and accelerated warming linked to the unmasking of the aerosol effects. The impact of greenhouse gas forcing is examined in different climate components.
Francine Schevenhoven and Alberto Carrassi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3831–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3831-2022, 2022
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In this study, we present a novel formulation to build a dynamical combination of models, the so-called supermodel, which needs to be trained based on data. Previously, we assumed complete and noise-free observations. Here, we move towards a realistic scenario and develop adaptations to the training methods in order to cope with sparse and noisy observations. The results are very promising and shed light on how to apply the method with state of the art general circulation models.
Zhiang Xie, Dietmar Dommenget, Felicity S. McCormack, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3691–3719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3691-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3691-2022, 2022
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Paleoclimate research requires better numerical model tools to explore interactions among the cryosphere, atmosphere, ocean and land surface. To explore those interactions, this study offers a tool, the GREB-ISM, which can be run for 2 million model years within 1 month on a personal computer. A series of experiments show that the GREB-ISM is able to reproduce the modern ice sheet distribution as well as classic climate oscillation features under paleoclimate conditions.
Yannic Fischler, Martin Rückamp, Christian Bischof, Vadym Aizinger, Mathieu Morlighem, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3753–3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, 2022
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Ice sheet models are used to simulate the changes of ice sheets in future but are currently often run in coarse resolution and/or with neglecting important physics to make them affordable in terms of computational costs. We conducted a study simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet in high resolution and adequate physics to test where the ISSM ice sheet code is using most time and what could be done to improve its performance for future computer architectures that allow massive parallel computing.
Sophy Oliver, Coralia Cartis, Iris Kriest, Simon F. B Tett, and Samar Khatiwala
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3537–3554, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3537-2022, 2022
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Global ocean biogeochemical models are used within Earth system models which are used to predict future climate change. However, these are very computationally expensive to run and therefore are rarely routinely improved or calibrated to real oceanic observations. Here we apply a new, fast optimisation algorithm to one such model and show that it can calibrate the model much faster than previously managed, therefore encouraging further ocean biogeochemical model improvements.
Anahí Villalba-Pradas and Francisco J. Tapiador
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3447–3518, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3447-2022, 2022
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The paper provides a comprehensive review of the empirical values and assumptions used in the convection schemes of numerical models. The focus is on the values and assumptions used in the activation of convection (trigger), the transport and microphysics (commonly referred to as the cloud model), and the intensity of convection (closure). Such information can assist satellite missions focused on elucidating convective processes and the evaluation of model output uncertainties.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Eleni Katragkou, and Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3387–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, 2022
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The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages in the coming decades. Reliable climatic information is therefore necessary for the optimal adaptation of local communities. In this work we show that regional climate models are reliable tools for the simulation of precipitation over southern Africa. However, there is still a great need for the expansion and maintenance of observational data.
Stipo Sentić, Peter Bechtold, Željka Fuchs-Stone, Mark Rodwell, and David J. Raymond
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3371–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3371-2022, 2022
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The Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC) field campaign focuses on studying convection in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean. Observations obtained from dropsondes have been assimilated into the ECMWF model and compared to a model run in which sondes have not been assimilated. The model performs well in both simulations, but the assimilation of sondes helps to reduce the departure for pre-tropical-storm conditions. Variables important to studying convection are also studied.
Aurore Voldoire, Romain Roehrig, Hervé Giordani, Robin Waldman, Yunyan Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, and Marie-Nöelle Bouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3347–3370, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3347-2022, 2022
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A single-column version of the global climate model CNRM-CM6-1 has been designed to ease development and validation of the model physics at the air–sea interface in a simplified environment. This model is then used to assess the ability to represent the sea surface temperature diurnal cycle. We conclude that the sea surface temperature diurnal variability is reasonably well represented in CNRM-CM6-1 with a 1 h coupling time step and the upper-ocean model resolution of 1 m.
Hui Wan, Kai Zhang, Philip J. Rasch, Vincent E. Larson, Xubin Zeng, Shixuan Zhang, and Ross Dixon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3205–3231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3205-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3205-2022, 2022
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This paper describes a tool embedded in a global climate model for sampling atmospheric conditions and monitoring physical processes as a numerical simulation is being carried out. The tool facilitates process-level model evaluation by allowing the users to select a wide range of quantities and processes to monitor at run time without having to do tedious ad hoc coding.
Milena Veneziani, Wieslaw Maslowski, Younjoo J. Lee, Gennaro D'Angelo, Robert Osinski, Mark R. Petersen, Wilbert Weijer, Anthony P. Craig, John D. Wolfe, Darin Comeau, and Adrian K. Turner
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3133–3160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3133-2022, 2022
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We present an Earth system model (ESM) simulation, E3SM-Arctic-OSI, with a refined grid to better resolve the Arctic ocean and sea-ice system and low spatial resolution elsewhere. The configuration satisfactorily represents many aspects of the Arctic system and its interactions with the sub-Arctic, while keeping computational costs at a fraction of those necessary for global high-resolution ESMs. E3SM-Arctic can thus be an efficient tool to study Arctic processes on climate-relevant timescales.
Walter M. Hannah, Kyle G. Pressel, Mikhail Ovchinnikov, and Gregory S. Elsaesser
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-35, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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An unphysical checkerboard signal is identified in two configurations of the atmospheric component of E3SM. The signal is very persistent, and visible after averaging years of data. The signal is very difficult to study because it is often mixed with realistic weather. A method is presented to detect checkerboard patterns and compare the model with satellite observations. The causes of the signal are identified and a solution for one configuration is discussed.
Stella Bourdin, Sébastien Fromang, William Dulac, Julien Cattiaux, and Fabrice Chauvin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-179, 2022
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Climate models output results in the form of gridded datasets. In order to study tropical cyclones, one needs objective and automatic procedures to detect their specific pattern. We study four algorithms performing this detection by applying them to a reconstruction of the climate in which we expect to find the observed storms. We conclude that these algorithms differ in their sensitivity to weak disturbances so that they provide different frequencies and durations.
Hamidreza Omidvar, Ting Sun, Sue Grimmond, Dave Bilesbach, Andrew Black, Jiquan Chen, Zexia Duan, Zhiqiu Gao, Hiroki Iwata, and Joseph P. McFadden
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3041–3078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3041-2022, 2022
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This paper extends the applicability of the SUEWS to extensive pervious areas outside cities. We derived various parameters such as leaf area index, albedo, roughness parameters and surface conductance for non-urban areas. The relation between LAI and albedo is also explored. The methods and parameters discussed can be used for both online and offline simulations. Using appropriate parameters related to non-urban areas is essential for assessing urban–rural differences.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Hengqi Wang, Yiran Peng, Knut von Salzen, Yan Yang, Wei Zhou, and Delong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2949–2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2949-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2949-2022, 2022
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The aerosol activation scheme is an important part of the general circulation model, but evaluations using observed data are mostly regional. This research introduced a numerically efficient aerosol activation scheme and evaluated it by using stratus and stratocumulus cloud data sampled during multiple aircraft campaigns in Canada, Chile, Brazil, and China. The decent performance indicates that the scheme is suitable for simulations of cloud droplet number concentrations over wide conditions.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
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An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Jewgenij Torizin, Nick Schüßler, and Michael Fuchs
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2791–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2791-2022, 2022
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With LSAT PM we introduce an open-source, stand-alone, easy-to-use application that supports scientific principles of openness, knowledge integrity, and replicability. Doing so, we want to share our experience in the implementation of heuristic and data-driven landslide susceptibility assessment methods such as analytic hierarchy process, weights of evidence, logistic regression, and artificial neural networks. A test dataset is available.
João António Martins Careto, Pedro Miguel Matos Soares, Rita Margarida Cardoso, Sixto Herrera, and José Manuel Gutiérrez
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2635–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2635-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2635-2022, 2022
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This work focuses on the added value of high-resolution models relative to their forcing simulations, with a recent observational gridded dataset as a reference, covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. The availability of such datasets with a spatial resolution close to that of regional climate models encouraged this study. For precipitation, most models reveal added value. The gains are even more evident for precipitation extremes, particularly at a more local scale.
João António Martins Careto, Pedro Miguel Matos Soares, Rita Margarida Cardoso, Sixto Herrera, and José Manuel Gutiérrez
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2653–2671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2653-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2653-2022, 2022
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This work focuses on the added value of high-resolution models relative to their forcing simulations, with an observational gridded dataset as a reference covering the Iberian Peninsula. The availability of such datasets with a spatial resolution close to that of regional models encouraged this study. For the max and min temperature, although most models reveal added value, some display losses. At more local scales, coastal sites display important gains, contrasting with the interior.
Guillaume Marie, B. Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Cecile Dardel, Thuy Le Toan, Alexandre Bouvet, Stéphane Mermoz, Ludovic Villard, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2599–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, 2022
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Most Earth system models make use of vegetation maps to initialize a simulation at global scale. Satellite-based biomass map estimates for Africa were used to estimate cover fractions for the 15 land cover classes. This study successfully demonstrates that satellite-based biomass maps can be used to better constrain vegetation maps. Applying this approach at the global scale would increase confidence in assessments of present-day biomass stocks.
Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Zhiyi Jiang, Rachel Eyles, Damián Oyarzún, and Jose Gomez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2475-2022, 2022
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We describe the way that our group have chosen to perform our recent analyses of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ensemble simulations. We document the approach used to obtain and curate the simulations, process those outputs via the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package, and then continue through to compute ensemble-wide statistics and create figures. We also provide interim data from all steps, the codes used and the ability for users to perform their own analyses.
Ronny Meier, Edouard L. Davin, Gordon B. Bonan, David M. Lawrence, Xiaolong Hu, Gregory Duveiller, Catherine Prigent, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2365–2393, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2365-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2365-2022, 2022
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We revise the roughness of the land surface in the CESM climate model. Guided by observational data, we increase the surface roughness of forests and decrease that of bare soil, snow, ice, and crops. These modifications alter simulated temperatures and wind speeds at and above the land surface considerably, in particular over desert regions. The revised model represents the diurnal variability of the land surface temperature better compared to satellite observations over most regions.
Stefan Kruse, Simone M. Stuenzi, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Josias Gloy, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2395–2422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, 2022
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We coupled established models for boreal forest (LAVESI) and permafrost dynamics (CryoGrid) in Siberia to investigate interactions of the diverse vegetation layer with permafrost soils. Our tests showed improved active layer depth estimations and newly included species growth according to their species-specific limits. We conclude that the new model system can be applied to simulate boreal forest dynamics and transitions under global warming and disturbances, expanding our knowledge.
Ruizi Shi, Fanghua Xu, Li Liu, Zheng Fan, Hao Yu, Hong Li, Xiang Li, and Yunfei Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2345–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2345-2022, 2022
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To better understand the effects of surface waves on global intraseasonal prediction, we incorporated the WW3 model into CFSv2.0. Processes of Langmuir mixing, Stokes–Coriolis force with entrainment, air–sea fluxes modified by Stokes drift, and momentum roughness length were considered. Results from two groups of 56 d experiments show that overestimated sea surface temperature, 2 m air temperature, 10 m wind, wave height, and underestimated mixed layer from the original CFSv2.0 are improved.
Ehud Strobach, Andrea Molod, Donifan Barahona, Atanas Trayanov, Dimitris Menemenlis, and Gael Forget
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2309–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2309-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Green's functions methodology offers a systematic, easy-to-implement, computationally cheap, scalable, and extendable method to tune uncertain parameters in models accounting for the dependent response of the model to a change in various parameters. Herein, we successfully show for the first time that long-term errors in earth system models can be considerably reduced using Green's functions methodology. The method can be easily applied to any model containing uncertain parameters.
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Short summary
The influence of climate on landform evolution has attracted great interest over the past decades. This paper presents a simple model for simulating the influence of topography on precipitation and the decrease in precipitation over large continental areas. The approach can be included in numerical models of large-scale landform evolution and causes only a moderate increase in the numerical complexity. It opens a door to investigating feedbacks between climate and landform evolution.
The influence of climate on landform evolution has attracted great interest over the past...
