Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7527-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7527-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
Model description paper
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08 Dec 2021
Model description paper | Highlight paper |  | 08 Dec 2021

SELF v1.0: a minimal physical model for predicting time of freeze-up in lakes

Marco Toffolon, Luca Cortese, and Damien Bouffard

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Latest update: 05 Nov 2025
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Short summary
The time when lakes freeze varies considerably from year to year. A common way to predict it is to use negative degree days, i.e., the sum of air temperatures below 0 °C, a proxy for the heat lost to the atmosphere. Here, we show that this is insufficient as the mixing of the surface layer induced by wind tends to delay the formation of ice. To do so, we developed a minimal model based on a simplified energy balance, which can be used both for large-scale analyses and short-term predictions.
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Modelling inland waters in a changing climate (GMD/ESD/TC...