Articles | Volume 14, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5205-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5205-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
18 Aug 2021
Development and technical paper |
| 18 Aug 2021
| 18 Aug 2021
Copula-based synthetic data augmentation for machine-learning emulators
David Meyer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College
London, London, UK
Thomas Nagler
Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, Leiden,
the Netherlands
Robin J. Hogan
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,
Reading, UK
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Related authors
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Paolo Andreozzi, Mark D. Fielding, Robin J. Hogan, Richard M. Forbes, Samuel Rémy, Birger Bohn, and Ulrich Löhnert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3790, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Aerosols significantly contribute to the Earth’s climate, but models still struggle at representing them. Here we use satellite observations of clouds to improve aerosols in our weather and air-quality model. We show that African wildfires induce too bright simulated clouds and that our model removes too much aerosol from ice-containing clouds. This showcases how our approach effectively targets poorly observed aerosol processes, potentially informing weather forecasting and climate models.
Howard W. Barker, Jason N. S. Cole, Najda Villefranque, Zhipeng Qu, Almudena Velázquez Blázquez, Carlos Domenech, Shannon L. Mason, and Robin J. Hogan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 3095–3107, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3095-2025, 2025
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Measurements made by three instruments aboard EarthCARE are used to retrieve estimates of cloud and aerosol properties. A radiative closure assessment of these retrievals is performed by the ACMB-DF processor. Radiative transfer models acting on retrieved information produce broadband radiances commensurate with measurements made by EarthCARE’s broadband radiometer. Measured and modelled radiances for small domains are compared, and the likelihood of them differing by 10 W m2 defines the closure.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Robert Schoetter, Robin James Hogan, Cyril Caliot, and Valéry Masson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 405–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-405-2025, 2025
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Radiation is relevant to the atmospheric impact on people and infrastructure in cities as it can influence the urban heat island, building energy consumption, and human thermal comfort. A new urban radiation model, assuming a more realistic form of urban morphology, is coupled to the urban climate model Town Energy Balance (TEB). The new TEB is evaluated with a reference radiation model for a variety of urban morphologies, and an improvement in the simulated radiative observables is found.
Kaah P. Menang, Stefan A. Buehler, Lukas Kluft, Robin J. Hogan, and Florian E. Roemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3051, 2024
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We investigated how the uncertainty in representing water vapour continuum absorption in the shortwave affects clear-sky shortwave radiative feedback. For current surface temperature, the impact is modest (<2 %). In a warmer world, continuum induced error in estimated shortwave feedback is up to ~5 %. Using the MT_CKD model in radiative transfer calculations may lead to an underestimation of the shortwave feedback. Constraining shortwave continuum will contribute to reducing these discrepancies.
Johannes Röttenbacher, André Ehrlich, Hanno Müller, Florian Ewald, Anna E. Luebke, Benjamin Kirbus, Robin J. Hogan, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8085–8104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8085-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8085-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction models simplify the physical processes related to light scattering by clouds consisting of complex ice crystals. Whether these simplifications are the cause for uncertainties in their prediction can be evaluated by comparing them with measurement data. Here we do this for Arctic ice clouds over sea ice using airborne measurements from two case studies. The model performs well for thick ice clouds but not so well for thin ones. This work can be used to improve the model.
Robin J. Hogan, Anthony J. Illingworth, Pavlos Kollias, Hajime Okamoto, and Ulla Wandinger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3081–3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3081-2024, 2024
Hanno Müller, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, Johannes Röttenbacher, Benjamin Kirbus, Michael Schäfer, Robin J. Hogan, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4157–4175, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024, 2024
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A weather model is used to compare solar radiation with measurements from an aircraft campaign in the Arctic. Model and observations agree on the downward radiation but show differences in the radiation reflected by the surface and the clouds, which in the model is too low above sea ice and too high above open ocean. The model–observation bias is reduced above open ocean by a realistic fraction of clouds and less cloud liquid water and above sea ice by less dark sea ice and more cloud droplets.
Shannon L. Mason, Howard W. Barker, Jason N. S. Cole, Nicole Docter, David P. Donovan, Robin J. Hogan, Anja Hünerbein, Pavlos Kollias, Bernat Puigdomènech Treserras, Zhipeng Qu, Ulla Wandinger, and Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 875–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-875-2024, 2024
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When the EarthCARE mission enters its operational phase, many retrieval data products will be available, which will overlap both in terms of the measurements they use and the geophysical quantities they report. In this pre-launch study, we use simulated EarthCARE scenes to compare the coverage and performance of many data products from the European Space Agency production model, with the intention of better understanding the relation between products and providing a compact guide to users.
Megan A. Stretton, William Morrison, Robin J. Hogan, and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5931–5947, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5931-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5931-2023, 2023
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Cities' materials and forms impact radiative fluxes. We evaluate the SPARTACUS-Urban multi-layer approach to modelling longwave radiation, describing realistic 3D geometry statistically using the explicit DART (Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer) model. The temperature configurations used are derived from thermal camera observations. SPARTACUS-Urban accurately predicts longwave fluxes, with a low computational time (cf. DART), but has larger errors with sunlit/shaded surface temperatures.
Shannon L. Mason, Robin J. Hogan, Alessio Bozzo, and Nicola L. Pounder
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3459–3486, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3459-2023, 2023
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We present a method for accurately estimating the contents and properties of clouds, snow, rain, and aerosols through the atmosphere, using the combined measurements of the radar, lidar, and radiometer instruments aboard the upcoming EarthCARE satellite, and evaluate the performance of the retrieval, using test scenes simulated from a numerical forecast model. When EarthCARE is in operation, these quantities and their estimated uncertainties will be distributed in a data product called ACM-CAP.
Peter Ukkonen and Robin J. Hogan
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3241–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3241-2023, 2023
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Climate and weather models suffer from uncertainties resulting from approximated processes. Solar and thermal radiation is one example, as it is computationally too costly to simulate precisely. This has led to attempts to replace radiation codes based on physical equations with neural networks (NNs) that are faster but uncertain. In this paper we use global weather simulations to demonstrate that a middle-ground approach of using NNs only to predict optical properties is accurate and reliable.
Abdanour Irbah, Julien Delanoë, Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff, David P. Donovan, Pavlos Kollias, Bernat Puigdomènech Treserras, Shannon Mason, Robin J. Hogan, and Aleksandra Tatarevic
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2795–2820, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2795-2023, 2023
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The Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and ATmospheric LIDar (ATLID) aboard the EarthCARE satellite are used to probe the Earth's atmosphere by measuring cloud and aerosol profiles. ATLID is sensitive to aerosols and small cloud particles and CPR to large ice particles, snowflakes and raindrops. It is the synergy of the measurements of these two instruments that allows a better classification of the atmospheric targets and the description of the associated products, which are the subject of this paper.
Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley J. Gray, Robin J. Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore G. Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4277–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is emerging as one of the keys to improve tropospheric weather and climate predictions. This study provides evidence of the role the stratospheric ozone layer plays in improving weather predictions at different timescales. Using a new ozone modelling approach suitable for high-resolution global models that provide operational forecasts from days to seasons, we find significant improvements in stratospheric meteorological fields and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
Robin J. Hogan and Marco Matricardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6501–6521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6501-2020, 2020
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A key component of computer models used to predict weather and climate is the radiation scheme, which calculates how solar and infrared radiation heats and cools the atmosphere and surface, including the important role of greenhouse gases. This paper describes the experimental protocol and large datasets for a new project, CKDMIP, to evaluate and improve the accuracy of the treatment of atmospheric gases in the radiation schemes used worldwide, as well as their computational speed.
Shannon L. Mason, Robin J. Hogan, Christopher D. Westbrook, Stefan Kneifel, Dmitri Moisseev, and Leonie von Terzi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 4993–5018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4993-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4993-2019, 2019
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The mass contents of snowflakes are critical to remotely sensed estimates of snowfall. The signatures of snow measured at three radar frequencies can distinguish fluffy, fractal snowflakes from dense and more homogeneous rimed snow. However, we show that the shape of the particle size spectrum also has a significant impact on triple-frequency radar signatures and must be accounted for when making triple-frequency radar estimates of snow that include variations in particle structure and density.
Jeronimo Escribano, Alessio Bozzo, Philippe Dubuisson, Johannes Flemming, Robin J. Hogan, Laurent C.-Labonnote, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 805–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-805-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-805-2019, 2019
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Accurate shortwave radiance computations are becoming increasingly important for some applications in atmospheric composition. In this work we propose a benchmark protocol and dataset to asses the accuracy and computing runtime of radiance calculations of radiative transfer models. It is applied to four models, showing the potential of this benchmark to evaluate the model performance under a variety of atmospheric conditions, viewing geometries, aerosol loading, and optical properties.
Robin J. Hogan, Tristan Quaife, and Renato Braghiere
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, 2018
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This paper describes a fast new method for calculating how much sunlight is absorbed and reflected by forests and other types of vegetation, rigorously taking account of the complex 3-D structure. Careful evaluation shows it to perform well even in difficult scenes with snow on the ground. The method is suitable for use within the computer models used to make weather and climate forecasts, where it has the potential to improve predictions of near-surface temperature and photosynthesis rates.
Shannon L. Mason, J. Christine Chiu, Robin J. Hogan, and Lin Tian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11567–11589, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11567-2017, 2017
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Airborne Doppler radar measurements are used to estimate the properties of tropical stratiform rain. Doppler velocity measurements provide sufficient information to estimate the rain rate over land and also to retrieve the raindrop size distribution over ocean, addressing major uncertainties in current satellite measurements of rain. These results suggest that EarthCARE, with the first space-borne Doppler radar, will facilitate improved global measurements of rain.
M. D. Fielding, J. C. Chiu, R. J. Hogan, G. Feingold, E. Eloranta, E. J. O'Connor, and M. P. Cadeddu
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2663–2683, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2663-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2663-2015, 2015
J. C. Chiu, J. A. Holmes, R. J. Hogan, and E. J. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8389–8401, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8389-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8389-2014, 2014
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4951–4964, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4951-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4951-2025, 2025
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Xiang Que, Jiyin Zhang, Weilin Chen, Jolyon Ralph, and Xiaogang Ma
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4455–4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4455-2025, 2025
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This paper describes an R package as the machine interface to the open data of Mindat.org, one of the world's most widely used databases of mineral species and their distribution. In the past decades, many geoscientists have been using Mindat data, but an open data service has never been fully established. The machine interface described in this paper will be an efficient way to meet the overwhelming data needs.
Yaxin Gu, Yi Wang, Fengsi Wei, Xueshang Feng, Andrey Samsonov, Xiaojian Song, Boyi Wang, Pingbing Zuo, Chaowei Jiang, Yalan Chen, Xiaojun Xu, and Zilu Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4215–4229, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4215-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4215-2025, 2025
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Trish E. Nowak, Andy T. Augousti, Benno I. Simmons, and Stefan Siegert
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3509–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3509-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3509-2025, 2025
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Angel D. Monsalve, Samuel R. Anderson, Nicole M. Gasparini, and Elowyn M. Yager
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3427–3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3427-2025, 2025
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Robert Jendersie, Christian Lessig, and Thomas Richter
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3017–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3017-2025, 2025
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Elena Tomasi, Gabriele Franch, and Marco Cristoforetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2051–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2051-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2051-2025, 2025
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Ryan J. O'Loughlin, Dan Li, Richard Neale, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 787–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-787-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-787-2025, 2025
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We draw from traditional climate modeling practices to make recommendations for machine-learning (ML)-driven climate science. Our intended audience is climate modelers who are relatively new to ML. We show how component-level understanding – obtained when scientists can link model behavior to parts within the overall model – should guide the development and evaluation of ML models. Better understanding yields a stronger basis for trust in the models. We highlight several examples to demonstrate.
Nikola Besic, Nicolas Picard, Cédric Vega, Jean-Daniel Bontemps, Lionel Hertzog, Jean-Pierre Renaud, Fajwel Fogel, Martin Schwartz, Agnès Pellissier-Tanon, Gabriel Destouet, Frédéric Mortier, Milena Planells-Rodriguez, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 337–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-337-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-337-2025, 2025
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The creation of advanced mapping models for forest attributes, utilizing remote sensing data and incorporating machine or deep learning methods, has become a key area of interest in the domain of forest observation and monitoring. This paper introduces a method where we blend and collectively interpret five models dedicated to estimating forest canopy height. We achieve this through Bayesian model averaging, offering a comprehensive analysis of these remote-sensing-based products.
Jie Lai, Yuan Zhang, Anzhi Wang, Wenli Fei, Yiwei Diao, Rongping Li, and Jiabin Wu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-169, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In this study, a new model called FLAML-LUE was created by combining the FLAML model with LUE-based models, the latter provides the key variables of vegetation growth for modeling. These models utilize the Fast Lightweight Automated Machine Learning (FLAML) framework, using variables of LUE models, to investigate the potential of estimating site-scale GPP.
Marion N. Parquer, Eric A. de Kemp, Boyan Brodaric, and Michael J. Hillier
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 71–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-71-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-71-2025, 2025
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This is a proof-of-concept paper outlining a general approach to how 3D geological models would be checked to be geologically
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Oriol Tintó Prims, Robert Redl, Marc Rautenhaus, Tobias Selz, Takumi Matsunobu, Kameswar Rao Modali, and George Craig
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8909–8925, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8909-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8909-2024, 2024
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Advanced compression techniques can drastically reduce the size of meteorological datasets (by 5 to 150 times) without compromising the data's scientific value. We developed a user-friendly tool called
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Ziyu Yin, Jiale Ding, Yi Liu, Ruoxu Wang, Yige Wang, Yijun Chen, Jin Qi, Sensen Wu, and Zhenhong Du
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8455–8468, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8455-2024, 2024
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In geography, understanding how relationships between different factors change over time and space is crucial. This study implements two neural-network-based spatiotemporal regression models and an open-source Python package named Geographically Neural Network Weighted Regression to capture relationships between factors. This makes it a valuable tool for researchers in fields such as environmental science, urban planning, and public health.
Peng Sun, Kefei Zhang, Dantong Zhu, Dongsheng Zhao, Shuangshuang Shi, Xuexi Liu, Minghao Zhang, and Suqin Wu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-123, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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GNSS signal is delayed when it transmits through the neutral gas. In this contribution, a new model was developed for reducing the VMF1/VMF3 grid-wise ground-surface ZHD and ZWD values to the target height to improve the ZHD and ZWD interpolation performance. Test results showed that the accuracy of the ZHD, ZWD interpolated from the VMF1/VMF3 products deduced by the new model was significantly improved compared to traditional methods.
Na Ren, Daojun Zhang, and Qiuming Cheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2461, 2024
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While Focal Statistics and Zonal Statistics deal with Spatial Position Dependence (SPD) and Spatial Stratified Heterogeneity (SSH) separately, the developed Focal-Zonal Mixed Statistics can handle both simultaneously. This new tool has the potential to become a general statistics tool. The integrated FZStats v1.0 toolbox in this study includes all three models mentioned above, providing new methodological support for understanding and addressing spatial statistical issues.
Carles Milà, Marvin Ludwig, Edzer Pebesma, Cathryn Tonne, and Hanna Meyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6007–6033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6007-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6007-2024, 2024
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Spatial proxies, such as coordinates and distances, are often used as predictors in random forest models for predictive mapping. In a simulation and two case studies, we investigated the conditions under which their use is appropriate. We found that spatial proxies are not always beneficial and should not be used as a default approach without careful consideration. We also provide insights into the reasons behind their suitability, how to detect them, and potential alternatives.
Chunhua Jiang, Xiang Gao, Huizhong Zhu, Shuaimin Wang, Sixuan Liu, Shaoni Chen, and Guangsheng Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5939–5959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5939-2024, 2024
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With ERA5 hourly data, we show spatiotemporal characteristics of pressure and zenith wet delay (ZWD) and propose an empirical global pressure and ZWD grid model with a broader operating space which can provide accurate pressure, ZWD, zenith hydrostatic delay, and zenith tropospheric delay estimates for any selected time and location over globe. IGPZWD will be of great significance for the tropospheric augmentation in real-time GNSS positioning and atmospheric water vapor remote sensing.
Jan Linnenbrink, Carles Milà, Marvin Ludwig, and Hanna Meyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5897–5912, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5897-2024, 2024
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Estimation of map accuracy based on cross-validation (CV) in spatial modelling is pervasive but controversial. Here, we build upon our previous work and propose a novel, prediction-oriented k-fold CV strategy for map accuracy estimation in which the distribution of geographical distances between prediction and training points is taken into account when constructing the CV folds. Our method produces more reliable estimates than other CV methods and can be used for large datasets.
Lars Hoffmann, Kaveh Haghighi Mood, Andreas Herten, Markus Hrywniak, Jiri Kraus, Jan Clemens, and Mingzhao Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4077–4094, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4077-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4077-2024, 2024
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Lagrangian particle dispersion models are key for studying atmospheric transport but can be computationally intensive. To speed up simulations, the MPTRAC model was ported to graphics processing units (GPUs). Performance optimization of data structures and memory alignment resulted in runtime improvements of up to 75 % on NVIDIA A100 GPUs for ERA5-based simulations with 100 million particles. These optimizations make the MPTRAC model well suited for future high-performance computing systems.
Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2987–3023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024, 2024
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In this study, we use deep learning and a climate simulation to predict the vegetation health as it would be observed from satellites. We found that the developed model can help to identify regions with a high risk of agricultural drought. The main applications of this study are to estimate vegetation products for periods where no satellite data are available and to forecast the future vegetation response to climate change based on climate scenarios.
Vitaliy Ogarko, Kim Frankcombe, Taige Liu, Jeremie Giraud, Roland Martin, and Mark Jessell
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2325–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2325-2024, 2024
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We present a major release of the Tomofast-x open-source gravity and magnetic inversion code that is enhancing its performance and applicability for both industrial and academic studies. We focus on real-world mineral exploration scenarios, while offering flexibility for applications at regional scale or for crustal studies. The optimisation work described in this paper is fundamental to allowing more complete descriptions of the controls on magnetisation, including remanence.
Jonathan Hobbs, Matthias Katzfuss, Hai Nguyen, Vineet Yadav, and Junjie Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1133–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1133-2024, 2024
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The cycling of carbon among the land, oceans, and atmosphere is a closely monitored process in the global climate system. These exchanges between the atmosphere and the surface can be quantified using a combination of atmospheric carbon dioxide observations and computer models. This study presents a statistical method for investigating the similarities and differences in the estimated surface–atmosphere carbon exchange when different computer model assumptions are invoked.
Jiateng Guo, Zhibin Liu, Xulei Wang, Lixin Wu, Shanjun Liu, and Yunqiang Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 847–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-847-2024, 2024
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This study proposes a 3D and temporally dynamic (4D) geological modeling method. Several simulation and actual cases show that the 4D spatial and temporal evolution of regional geological formations can be modeled easily using this method with smooth boundaries. The 4D modeling system can dynamically present the regional geological evolution process under the timeline, which will be helpful to the research and teaching on the formation of typical and complex geological features.
Catherine O. de Burgh-Day and Tennessee Leeuwenburg
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6433–6477, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6433-2023, 2023
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Machine learning (ML) is an increasingly popular tool in the field of weather and climate modelling. While ML has been used in this space for a long time, it is only recently that ML approaches have become competitive with more traditional methods. In this review, we have summarized the use of ML in weather and climate modelling over time; provided an overview of key ML concepts, methodologies, and terms; and suggested promising avenues for further research.
Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, Negin Sobhani, Gordon B. Bonan, David Durden, Dawn Lenz, Michael SanClements, Samantha Weintraub-Leff, Edward Ayres, Christopher R. Florian, Kyla Dahlin, Sanjiv Kumar, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claire M. Zarakas, Charles Vardeman, and Valerio Pascucci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5979–6000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5979-2023, 2023
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We present a novel cyberinfrastructure system that uses National Ecological Observatory Network measurements to run Community Terrestrial System Model point simulations in a containerized system. The simple interface and tutorials expand access to data and models used in Earth system research by removing technical barriers and facilitating research, educational opportunities, and community engagement. The NCAR–NEON system enables convergence of climate and ecological sciences.
Foeke Boersma and Meng Lu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1260, 2023
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Air pollution harms health and society. Understanding and predicting it is crucial. Various models are developed to model air pollution. However, the consistency exhibited by a model in different areas is commonly neglected. Our study accounts for this and shows lower accuracy near busy roads, but higher in less populated areas. Considering location characteristics in air pollution predictions is important in comparing statistical models and understanding the health-society-space relationship.
Qianqian Han, Yijian Zeng, Lijie Zhang, Calimanut-Ionut Cira, Egor Prikaziuk, Ting Duan, Chao Wang, Brigitta Szabó, Salvatore Manfreda, Ruodan Zhuang, and Bob Su
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5825–5845, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5825-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5825-2023, 2023
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Using machine learning, we estimated global surface soil moisture (SSM) to aid in understanding water, energy, and carbon exchange. Ensemble models outperformed individual algorithms in predicting SSM under different climates. The best-performing ensemble included K-neighbours Regressor, Random Forest Regressor, and Extreme Gradient Boosting. This is important for hydrological and climatological applications such as water cycle monitoring, irrigation management, and crop yield prediction.
Xiaoyi Shao, Siyuan Ma, and Chong Xu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5113–5129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5113-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5113-2023, 2023
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Scientific understandings of the distribution of coseismic landslides, followed by emergency and medium- and long-term risk assessment, can reduce landslide risk. The aim of this study is to propose an improved three-stage spatial prediction strategy and develop corresponding hazard assessment software called Mat.LShazard V1.0, which provides a new application tool for coseismic landslide disaster prevention and mitigation in different stages.
Junda Zhan, Sensen Wu, Jin Qi, Jindi Zeng, Mengjiao Qin, Yuanyuan Wang, and Zhenhong Du
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2777–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2777-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2777-2023, 2023
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We develop a generalized spatial autoregressive neural network model used for three-dimensional spatial interpolation. Taking the different changing trend of geographic elements along various directions into consideration, the model defines spatial distance in a generalized way and integrates it into the process of spatial interpolation with the theories of spatial autoregression and neural network. Compared with traditional methods, the model achieves better performance and is more adaptable.
Dominikus Heinzeller, Ligia Bernardet, Grant Firl, Man Zhang, Xia Sun, and Michael Ek
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2235–2259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2235-2023, 2023
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The Common Community Physics Package is a collection of physical atmospheric parameterizations for use in Earth system models and a framework that couples the physics to a host model’s dynamical core. A primary goal for this effort is to facilitate research and development of physical parameterizations and physics–dynamics coupling methods while offering capabilities for numerical weather prediction operations, for example in the upcoming implementation of the Global Forecast System (GFS) v17.
Tobias Tesch, Stefan Kollet, and Jochen Garcke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2149–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023, 2023
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A recent statistical approach for studying relations in the Earth system is to train deep learning (DL) models to predict Earth system variables given one or several others and use interpretable DL to analyze the relations learned by the models. Here, we propose to combine the approach with a theorem from causality research to ensure that the deep learning model learns causal rather than spurious relations. As an example, we apply the method to study soil-moisture–precipitation coupling.
Yao Hu, Chirantan Ghosh, and Siamak Malakpour-Estalaki
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1925-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1925-2023, 2023
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Data-driven models (DDMs) gain popularity in earth and environmental systems, thanks in large part to advancements in data collection techniques and artificial intelligence (AI). The performance of these models is determined by the underlying machine learning (ML) algorithms. In this study, we develop a framework to improve the model performance by optimizing ML algorithms and demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework using a DDM to predict edge-of-field runoff in the Maumee domain, USA.
Ruidong Li, Ting Sun, Fuqiang Tian, and Guang-Heng Ni
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 751–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-751-2023, 2023
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We developed SHAFTS (Simultaneous building Height And FootprinT extraction from Sentinel imagery), a multi-task deep-learning-based Python package, to estimate average building height and footprint from Sentinel imagery. Evaluation in 46 cities worldwide shows that SHAFTS achieves significant improvement over existing machine-learning-based methods.
Feng Yin, Philip E. Lewis, and Jose L. Gómez-Dans
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7933–7976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7933-2022, 2022
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The proposed SIAC atmospheric correction method provides consistent surface reflectance estimations from medium spatial-resolution satellites (Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8) with per-pixel uncertainty information. The outputs from SIAC have been validated against a wide range of ground measurements, and it shows that SIAC can provide accurate estimations of both surface reflectance and atmospheric parameters, with meaningful uncertainty information.
Martina Stockhause and Michael Lautenschlager
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6047–6058, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6047-2022, 2022
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The Data Distribution Centre (DDC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) celebrates its 25th anniversary in 2022. DDC Partner DKRZ has supported the IPCC Assessments and preserved the quality-assured, citable climate model data underpinning the Assessment Reports over these years over the long term. With the introduction of the IPCC FAIR Guidelines into the current AR6, the value of DDC services has been recognized. However, DDC sustainability remains unresolved.
Daiane Iglesia Dolci, Felipe A. G. Silva, Pedro S. Peixoto, and Ernani V. Volpe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5857–5881, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5857-2022, 2022
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We investigate and compare the theoretical and computational characteristics of several absorbing boundary conditions (ABCs) for the full-waveform inversion (FWI) problem. The different ABCs are implemented in an optimized computational framework called Devito. The computational efficiency and memory requirements of the ABC methods are evaluated in the forward and adjoint wave propagators, from simple to realistic velocity models.
Mauro Rossi, Txomin Bornaetxea, and Paola Reichenbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5651–5666, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5651-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5651-2022, 2022
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LAND-SUITE is a software package designed to support landslide susceptibility zonation. The software integrates, extends, and completes LAND-SE (Rossi et al., 2010; Rossi and Reichenbach, 2016). The software is implemented in R, a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics, and gives expert users the possibility to perform easier, more flexible, and more informed statistically based landslide susceptibility applications and zonations.
Ashesh Chattopadhyay, Mustafa Mustafa, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Eviatar Bach, and Karthik Kashinath
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2221–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2221-2022, 2022
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There is growing interest in data-driven weather forecasting, i.e., to predict the weather by using a deep neural network that learns from the evolution of past atmospheric patterns. Here, we propose three components to add to the current data-driven weather forecast models to improve their performance. These components involve a feature that incorporates physics into the neural network, a method to add data assimilation, and an algorithm to use several different time intervals in the forecast.
Paul F. Baumeister and Lars Hoffmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1855–1874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1855-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1855-2022, 2022
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The efficiency of the numerical simulation of radiative transport is shown on modern server-class graphics cards (GPUs). The low-cost prefactor on GPUs compared to general-purpose processors (CPUs) enables future large retrieval campaigns for multi-channel data from infrared sounders aboard low-orbit satellites. The validated research software JURASSIC is available in the public domain.
Gregory E. Tucker, Eric W. H. Hutton, Mark D. Piper, Benjamin Campforts, Tian Gan, Katherine R. Barnhart, Albert J. Kettner, Irina Overeem, Scott D. Peckham, Lynn McCready, and Jaia Syvitski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1413–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1413-2022, 2022
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Scientists use computer simulation models to understand how Earth surface processes work, including floods, landslides, soil erosion, river channel migration, ocean sedimentation, and coastal change. Research benefits when the software for simulation modeling is open, shared, and coordinated. The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) is a US-based facility that supports research by providing community support, computing tools and guidelines, and educational resources.
Danilo César de Mello, Gustavo Vieira Veloso, Marcos Guedes de Lana, Fellipe Alcantara de Oliveira Mello, Raul Roberto Poppiel, Diego Ribeiro Oquendo Cabrero, Luis Augusto Di Loreto Di Raimo, Carlos Ernesto Gonçalves Reynaud Schaefer, Elpídio Inácio Fernandes Filho, Emilson Pereira Leite, and José Alexandre Melo Demattê
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1219–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1219-2022, 2022
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We used soil parent material, terrain attributes, and geophysical data from the soil surface to test and compare different and unprecedented geophysical sensor combination, as well as different machine learning algorithms to model and predict several soil attributes. Also, we analyzed the importance of pedoenvironmental variables. The soil attributes were modeled throughout different machine learning algorithms and related to different geophysical sensor combinations.
Duncan Watson-Parris, Andrew Williams, Lucia Deaconu, and Philip Stier
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7659–7672, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7659-2021, 2021
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The Earth System Emulator (ESEm) provides a fast and flexible framework for emulating a wide variety of Earth science datasets and tools for constraining (or tuning) models of any complexity. Three distinct use cases are presented that demonstrate the utility of ESEm and provide some insight into the use of machine learning for emulation in these different settings. The open-source Python package is freely available so that it might become a valuable tool for the community.
Chongyang Wang, Li Wang, Danni Wang, Dan Li, Chenghu Zhou, Hao Jiang, Qiong Zheng, Shuisen Chen, Kai Jia, Yangxiaoyue Liu, Ji Yang, Xia Zhou, and Yong Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6833–6846, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6833-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6833-2021, 2021
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The turbidity maximum zone (TMZ) is a special phenomenon in estuaries worldwide. However, the extraction methods and criteria used to describe the TMZ vary significantly both spatially and temporally. This study proposes an new index, the turbidity maximum zone index, based on the corresponding relationship of total suspended solid concentration and Chl a concentration, which could better extract TMZs in different estuaries and on different dates.
Ranee Joshi, Kavitha Madaiah, Mark Jessell, Mark Lindsay, and Guillaume Pirot
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6711–6740, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6711-2021, 2021
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We have developed a software that allows the user to extract and standardize drill hole information from legacy datasets and/or different drilling campaigns. It also provides functionality to upscale the lithological information. These functionalities were possible by developing thesauri to identify and group geological terminologies together.
Mark Jessell, Vitaliy Ogarko, Yohan de Rose, Mark Lindsay, Ranee Joshi, Agnieszka Piechocka, Lachlan Grose, Miguel de la Varga, Laurent Ailleres, and Guillaume Pirot
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5063–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5063-2021, 2021
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We have developed software that allows the user to extract sufficient information from unmodified digital maps and associated datasets that we are able to use to automatically build 3D geological models. By automating the process we are able to remove human bias from the procedure, which makes the workflow reproducible.
Martí Bosch, Maxence Locatelli, Perrine Hamel, Roy P. Remme, Jérôme Chenal, and Stéphane Joost
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3521–3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3521-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3521-2021, 2021
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The article presents a novel approach to simulate urban heat mitigation from land use/land cover data based on three biophysical mechanisms: tree shade, evapotranspiration and albedo. An automated procedure is proposed to calibrate the model parameters to best fit temperature observations from monitoring stations. A case study in Lausanne, Switzerland, shows that the approach outperforms regressions based on satellite data and provides valuable insights into design heat mitigation policies.
Quang-Van Doan, Hiroyuki Kusaka, Takuto Sato, and Fei Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2097–2111, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2097-2021, 2021
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This study proposes a novel structural self-organizing map (S-SOM) algorithm. The superiority of S-SOM is that it can better recognize the difference (or similarity) among spatial (or temporal) data used for training and thus improve the clustering quality compared to traditional SOM algorithms.
Batunacun, Ralf Wieland, Tobia Lakes, and Claas Nendel
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1493–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1493-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1493-2021, 2021
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Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) can provide alternative insights that conventional land-use models are unable to generate. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) can interpret the results of the purely data-driven approach. XGBoost achieved similar and robust simulation results. SHAP values were useful for analysing the complex relationship between the different drivers of grassland degradation.
Juan A. Añel, Michael García-Rodríguez, and Javier Rodeiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 923–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-923-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-923-2021, 2021
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This work shows that it continues to be hard, if not impossible, to obtain some of the most used climate models worldwide. We reach this conclusion through a systematic study and encourage all development teams and research centres to make public the models they use to produce scientific results.
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Short summary
A major limitation in training machine-learning emulators is often caused by the lack of data. This paper presents a cheap way to increase the size of training datasets using statistical techniques and thereby improve the performance of machine-learning emulators.
A major limitation in training machine-learning emulators is often caused by the lack of data....
