Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3995-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3995-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
29 Jun 2021
Model evaluation paper |
| 29 Jun 2021
| 29 Jun 2021
Performance of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate component – a COAWST V3.3-based coupled atmosphere–ocean modelling suite: atmospheric dataset
Cléa Denamiel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I. Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
Ruđer Bošković Institute, Division for Marine and Environmental Research, Bijenička cesta 54, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Petra Pranić
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I. Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
Damir Ivanković
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I. Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
Iva Tojčić
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I. Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
Ivica Vilibić
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I. Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
Related authors
Petra Pranić, Cléa Denamiel, Ivica Janeković, and Ivica Vilibić
Ocean Sci., 19, 649–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse and compare the results of four different approaches in modelling bora-driven dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic. The study investigated the likely requirements for modelling the ocean circulation in the Adriatic and found that a 31-year run of a fine-resolution Adriatic climate model is able to outperform most aspects of the newest reanalysis product, a short-term hindcast and data-assimilated simulation, in reproducing the dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic Sea.
Cléa Denamiel and Ivica Vilibić
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-913, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new methodology using coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave models and demonstrate the feasibility to provide meter scale assessments of the impact of climate change on storm surge hazards. We show that sea level variations and distributions can be derived at the climate scale in the Adriatic Sea small lagoons and bays. We expect that the newly developed methodology could lead to more targeted adaptation strategies in regions of the world vulnerable to atmospherically driven extreme events.
Petra Pranić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5927–5955, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5927-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Adriatic Sea and Coast model was developed due to the need for higher-resolution climate models and longer-term simulations to capture coastal atmospheric and ocean processes at climate scales in the Adriatic Sea. The ocean results of a 31-year-long simulation were compared to the observational data. The evaluation revealed that the model is capable of reproducing the observed physical properties with good accuracy and can be further used to study the dynamics of the Adriatic–Ionian basin.
Iva Tojčić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2427–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations developed in order to help coastal communities prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in the eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
Ivica Vilibić, Petra Zemunik, Jadranka Šepić, Natalija Dunić, Oussama Marzouk, Hrvoje Mihanović, Clea Denamiel, Robert Precali, and Tamara Djakovac
Ocean Sci., 15, 1351–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1351-2019, 2019
Ivica Vilibić, Hrvoje Mihanović, Ivica Janeković, Cléa Denamiel, Pierre-Marie Poulain, Mirko Orlić, Natalija Dunić, Vlado Dadić, Mira Pasarić, Stipe Muslim, Riccardo Gerin, Frano Matić, Jadranka Šepić, Elena Mauri, Zoi Kokkini, Martina Tudor, Žarko Kovač, and Tomislav Džoić
Ocean Sci., 14, 237–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-237-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-237-2018, 2018
Petra Pranić, Cléa Denamiel, Ivica Janeković, and Ivica Vilibić
Ocean Sci., 19, 649–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse and compare the results of four different approaches in modelling bora-driven dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic. The study investigated the likely requirements for modelling the ocean circulation in the Adriatic and found that a 31-year run of a fine-resolution Adriatic climate model is able to outperform most aspects of the newest reanalysis product, a short-term hindcast and data-assimilated simulation, in reproducing the dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic Sea.
Cléa Denamiel and Ivica Vilibić
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-913, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new methodology using coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave models and demonstrate the feasibility to provide meter scale assessments of the impact of climate change on storm surge hazards. We show that sea level variations and distributions can be derived at the climate scale in the Adriatic Sea small lagoons and bays. We expect that the newly developed methodology could lead to more targeted adaptation strategies in regions of the world vulnerable to atmospherically driven extreme events.
Damir Ivankovic, Ivan Vučić, Dalibor Jelavić, and Anđela Jelinčić
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 5, 53, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-5-53-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-5-53-2022, 2022
Begoña Pérez Gómez, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić, Iva Međugorac, Matjaž Ličer, Laurent Testut, Claire Fraboul, Marta Marcos, Hassen Abdellaoui, Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Darko Barbalić, Benjamín Casas, Antonio Castaño-Tierno, Srđan Čupić, Aldo Drago, María Angeles Fraile, Daniele A. Galliano, Adam Gauci, Branislav Gloginja, Víctor Martín Guijarro, Maja Jeromel, Marcos Larrad Revuelto, Ayah Lazar, Ibrahim Haktan Keskin, Igor Medvedev, Abdelkader Menassri, Mohamed Aïssa Meslem, Hrvoje Mihanović, Sara Morucci, Dragos Niculescu, José Manuel Quijano de Benito, Josep Pascual, Atanas Palazov, Marco Picone, Fabio Raicich, Mohamed Said, Jordi Salat, Erdinc Sezen, Mehmet Simav, Georgios Sylaios, Elena Tel, Joaquín Tintoré, Klodian Zaimi, and George Zodiatis
Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This description and mapping of coastal sea level monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas reveals the existence of 240 presently operational tide gauges. Information is provided about the type of sensor, time sampling, data availability, and ancillary measurements. An assessment of the fit-for-purpose status of the network is also included, along with recommendations to mitigate existing bottlenecks and improve the network, in a context of sea level rise and increasing extremes.
Emma Reyes, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Vanessa Cardin, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Maria J. Fernandes, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Pablo Lorente, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Adèle Révelard, Catalina Reyes-Suárez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Alejandro Orfila
Ocean Sci., 18, 797–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work reviews the existing advanced and emerging scientific and societal applications using HFR data, developed to address the major challenges identified in Mediterranean coastal waters organized around three main topics: maritime safety, extreme hazards and environmental transport processes. It also includes a discussion and preliminary assessment of the capabilities of existing HFR applications, finally providing a set of recommendations towards setting out future prospects.
Pablo Lorente, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Alejandro Orfila, Adèle Révelard, Emma Reyes, Jorge Sánchez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Laura Ursella, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Vanessa Cardin
Ocean Sci., 18, 761–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High-frequency radar (HFR) is a land-based remote sensing technology that can provide maps of the surface circulation over broad coastal areas, along with wave and wind information. The main goal of this work is to showcase the current status of the Mediterranean HFR network as well as present and future applications of this sensor for societal benefit such as search and rescue operations, safe vessel navigation, tracking of marine pollutants, and the monitoring of extreme events.
Petra Pranić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5927–5955, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5927-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Adriatic Sea and Coast model was developed due to the need for higher-resolution climate models and longer-term simulations to capture coastal atmospheric and ocean processes at climate scales in the Adriatic Sea. The ocean results of a 31-year-long simulation were compared to the observational data. The evaluation revealed that the model is capable of reproducing the observed physical properties with good accuracy and can be further used to study the dynamics of the Adriatic–Ionian basin.
Petra Zemunik, Jadranka Šepić, Havu Pellikka, Leon Ćatipović, and Ivica Vilibić
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4121–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4121-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new global dataset – MISELA (Minute Sea-Level Analysis) – has been developed and contains quality-checked sea-level records from 331 tide gauges worldwide for a period from 2004 to 2019. The dataset is appropriate for research on atmospherically induced high-frequency sea-level oscillations. Research on these oscillations is important, as they can, like all sea-level extremes, seriously threaten coastal zone infrastructure and populations.
Iva Tojčić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2427–2446, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations developed in order to help coastal communities prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in the eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
Ivica Vilibić, Petra Zemunik, Jadranka Šepić, Natalija Dunić, Oussama Marzouk, Hrvoje Mihanović, Clea Denamiel, Robert Precali, and Tamara Djakovac
Ocean Sci., 15, 1351–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1351-2019, 2019
Ivica Vilibić, Hrvoje Mihanović, Ivica Janeković, Cléa Denamiel, Pierre-Marie Poulain, Mirko Orlić, Natalija Dunić, Vlado Dadić, Mira Pasarić, Stipe Muslim, Riccardo Gerin, Frano Matić, Jadranka Šepić, Elena Mauri, Zoi Kokkini, Martina Tudor, Žarko Kovač, and Tomislav Džoić
Ocean Sci., 14, 237–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-237-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-237-2018, 2018
H. Mihanović, I. Vilibić, S. Carniel, M. Tudor, A. Russo, A. Bergamasco, N. Bubić, Z. Ljubešić, D. Viličić, A. Boldrin, V. Malačič, M. Celio, C. Comici, and F. Raicich
Ocean Sci., 9, 561–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-561-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-561-2013, 2013
S. Pasquet, I. Vilibić, and J. Šepić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 473–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-473-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-473-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
Comparing the Performance of Julia on CPUs versus GPUs and Julia-MPI versus Fortran-MPI: a case study with MPAS-Ocean (Version 7.1)
All aboard! Earth system investigations with the CH2O-CHOO TRAIN v1.0
The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5.0.3)
The Teddy tool v1.1: temporal disaggregation of daily climate model data for climate impact analysis
Assimilation of the AMSU-A radiances using the CESM (v2.1.0) and the DART (v9.11.13)–RTTOV (v12.3)
Modernizing the open-source community Noah with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (version 5.0) with enhanced modularity, interoperability, and applicability
Simulated stable water isotopes during the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods using AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso
Rainbows and climate change: a tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization
ModE-Sim – a medium-sized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble to study climate variability during the modern era (1420 to 2009)
MESMAR v1: a new regional coupled climate model for downscaling, predictability, and data assimilation studies in the Mediterranean region
Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications
IceTFT v1.0.0: interpretable long-term prediction of Arctic sea ice extent with deep learning
The KNMI Large Ensemble Time Slice (KNMI–LENTIS)
ENSO statistics, teleconnections, and atmosphere–ocean coupling in the Taiwan Earth System Model version 1
Using probabilistic machine learning to better model temporal patterns in parameterizations: a case study with the Lorenz 96 model
The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)
DSCIM-Coastal v1.1: an open-source modeling platform for global impacts of sea level rise
TIMBER v0.1: a conceptual framework for emulating temperature responses to tree cover change
Recalibration of a three-dimensional water quality model with a newly developed autocalibration toolkit (EFDC-ACT v1.0.0): how much improvement will be achieved with a wider hydrological variability?
Description and evaluation of the JULES-ES set-up for ISIMIP2b
Simplified Kalman smoother and ensemble Kalman smoother for improving reanalyses
Modelling the terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus cycle in the UVic ESCM
Modeling river water temperature with limiting forcing data: Air2stream v1.0.0, machine learning and multiple regression
A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)
The fully coupled regionally refined model of E3SM version 2: overview of the atmosphere, land, and river results
The mixed-layer depth in the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP): impact of resolving mesoscale eddies
A new simplified parameterization of secondary organic aerosol in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2; CAM6.3)
Deep learning for stochastic precipitation generation – deep SPG v1.0
Developing spring wheat in the Noah-MP land surface model (v4.4) for growing season dynamics and responses to temperature stress
Robust 4D climate-optimal flight planning in structured airspace using parallelized simulation on GPUs: ROOST V1.0
The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 2: The global carbon cycle
SMLFire1.0: a stochastic machine learning (SML) model for wildfire activity in the western United States
LandInG 1.0: a toolbox to derive input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem modelling at variable resolutions from heterogeneous sources
Conservation of heat and mass in P-SKRIPS version 1: the coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model of the Ross Sea
Predicting the climate impact of aviation for en-route emissions: the algorithmic climate change function submodel ACCF 1.0 of EMAC 2.53
Implementation of a machine-learned gas optics parameterization in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System: RRTMGP-NN 2.0
Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling
Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales
Data-driven aeolian dust emission scheme for climate modelling evaluated with EMAC 2.55.2
Testing the reconstruction of modelled particulate organic carbon from surface ecosystem components using PlankTOM12 and machine learning
An improved method of the Globally Resolved Energy Balance model by the Bayesian networks
Assessing predicted cirrus ice properties between two deterministic ice formation parameterizations
Various ways of using empirical orthogonal functions for climate model evaluation
C-Coupler3.0: an integrated coupler infrastructure for Earth system modelling
FEOTS v0.0.0: a new offline code for the fast equilibration of tracers in the ocean
Pace v0.2: a Python-based performance-portable atmospheric model
Introducing a new floodplain scheme in ORCHIDEE (version 7885): validation and evaluation over the Pantanal wetlands
Earth System Model Aerosol-Cloud Diagnostics Package (ESMAC Diags) Version 2: Assessments of Aerosols, Clouds and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Through Field Campaign and Long-Term Observations
Hydrological modelling on atmospheric grids: using graphs of sub-grid elements to transport energy and water
The sea level simulator v1.0: a model for integration of mean sea level change and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework
Siddhartha Bishnu, Robert R. Strauss, and Mark R. Petersen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5539–5559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5539-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5539-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we test Julia, a relatively new programming language, which is designed to be simple to write, but also fast on advanced computer architectures. We found that Julia is both convenient and fast, but there is no free lunch. Our first attempt to develop an ocean model in Julia was relatively easy, but the code was slow. After several months of further development, we created a Julia code that is as fast on supercomputers as a Fortran ocean model.
Tyler Kukla, Daniel E. Ibarra, Kimberly V. Lau, and Jeremy K. C. Rugenstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5515–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5515-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The CH2O-CHOO TRAIN model can simulate how climate and the long-term carbon cycle interact across millions of years on a standard PC. While efficient, the model accounts for many factors including the location of land masses, the spatial pattern of the water cycle, and fundamental climate feedbacks. The model is a powerful tool for investigating how short-term climate processes can affect long-term changes in the Earth system.
Jason Neil Steven Cole, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, John Scinocca, David Plummer, Vivek Arora, Norman McFarlane, Michael Lazare, Murray MacKay, and Diana Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5427–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5) is used to simulate on a global scale the climate of Earth's atmosphere, land, and lakes. We document changes to the physics in CanAM5 since the last major version of the model (CanAM4) and evaluate the climate simulated relative to observations and CanAM4. The climate simulated by CanAM5 is similar to CanAM4, but there are improvements, including better simulation of temperature and precipitation over the Amazon and better simulation of cloud.
Florian Zabel and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5383–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Today, most climate model data are provided at daily time steps. However, more and more models from different sectors, such as energy, water, agriculture, and health, require climate information at a sub-daily temporal resolution for a more robust and reliable climate impact assessment. Here we describe and validate the Teddy tool, a new model for the temporal disaggregation of daily climate model data for climate impact analysis.
Young-Chan Noh, Yonghan Choi, Hyo-Jong Song, Kevin Raeder, Joo-Hong Kim, and Youngchae Kwon
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5365–5382, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first attempt to assimilate the observations of microwave temperature sounders into the global climate forecast model in which the satellite observations have not been assimilated in the past. To do this, preprocessing schemes are developed to make the satellite observations suitable to be assimilated. In the assimilation experiments, the model analysis is significantly improved by assimilating the observations of microwave temperature sounders.
Cenlin He, Prasanth Valayamkunnath, Michael Barlage, Fei Chen, David Gochis, Ryan Cabell, Tim Schneider, Roy Rasmussen, Guo-Yue Niu, Zong-Liang Yang, Dev Niyogi, and Michael Ek
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5131–5151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5131-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Noah-MP is one of the most widely used open-source community land surface models in the world, designed for applications ranging from uncoupled land surface and ecohydrological process studies to coupled numerical weather prediction and decadal climate simulations. To facilitate model developments and applications, we modernize Noah-MP by adopting modern Fortran code and data structures and standards, which substantially enhance model modularity, interoperability, and applicability.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Andrew Gettelman
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4937–4956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A representation of rainbows is developed for a climate model. The diagnostic raises many common issues. Simulated rainbows are evaluated against limited observations. The pattern of rainbows in the model matches observations and theory about when and where rainbows are most common. The diagnostic is used to assess the past and future state of rainbows. Changes to clouds from climate change are expected to increase rainbows as cloud cover decreases in a warmer world.
Ralf Hand, Eric Samakinwa, Laura Lipfert, and Stefan Brönnimann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4853–4866, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4853-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
ModE-Sim is an ensemble of simulations with an atmosphere model. It uses observed sea surface temperatures, sea ice conditions, and volcanic aerosols for 1420 to 2009 as model input while accounting for uncertainties in these conditions. This generates several representations of the possible climate given these preconditions. Such a setup can be useful to understand the mechanisms that contribute to climate variability. This paper describes the setup of ModE-Sim and evaluates its performance.
Andrea Storto, Yassmin Hesham Essa, Vincenzo de Toma, Alessandro Anav, Gianmaria Sannino, Rosalia Santoleri, and Chunxue Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4811–4833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4811-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4811-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate models are a fundamental tool for a very large number of applications and are being increasingly used within climate services, together with other complementary approaches. Here, we introduce a new regional coupled model, intended to be later extended to a full Earth system model, for climate investigations within the Mediterranean region, coupled data assimilation experiments, and several downscaling exercises (reanalyses and long-range predictions).
Anna L. Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Vincent Humphrey, and Reto Knutti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4715–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models is unfeasible for many applications. We provide a subselection protocol that balances user needs for model independence, performance, and spread capturing CMIP’s projection uncertainty simultaneously. We show how sets of three to five models selected for European applications map to user priorities. An audit of model independence and its influence on equilibrium climate sensitivity uncertainty in CMIP is also presented.
Bin Mu, Xiaodan Luo, Shijin Yuan, and Xi Liang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4677–4697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4677-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4677-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the long-term forecast skill for sea ice extent (SIE), we introduce IceTFT, which directly predicts 12 months of averaged Arctic SIE. The results show that IceTFT has higher forecasting skill. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of the variables in the IceTFT model. These sensitivities can help researchers study the mechanisms of sea ice development, and they also provide useful references for the selection of variables in data assimilation or the input of deep learning models.
Laura Muntjewerf, Richard Bintanja, Thomas Reerink, and Karin van der Wiel
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4581-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4581-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The KNMI Large Ensemble Time Slice (KNMI–LENTIS) is a large ensemble of global climate model simulations with EC-Earth3. It covers two climate scenarios by focusing on two time slices: the present day (2000–2009) and a future +2 K climate (2075–2084 in the SSP2-4.5 scenario). We have 1600 simulated years for the two climates with (sub-)daily output frequency. The sampled climate variability allows for robust and in-depth research into (compound) extreme events such as heat waves and droughts.
Yi-Chi Wang, Wan-Ling Tseng, Yu-Luen Chen, Shih-Yu Lee, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Hsin-Chien Liang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4599–4616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4599-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4599-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on evaluating the performance of the Taiwan Earth System Model version 1 (TaiESM1) in simulating the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a significant tropical climate pattern with global impacts. Our findings reveal that TaiESM1 effectively captures several characteristics of ENSO, such as its seasonal variation and remote teleconnections. Its pronounced ENSO strength bias is also thoroughly investigated, aiming to gain insights to improve climate model performance.
Raghul Parthipan, Hannah M. Christensen, J. Scott Hosking, and Damon J. Wischik
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4501–4519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
How can we create better climate models? We tackle this by proposing a data-driven successor to the existing approach for capturing key temporal trends in climate models. We combine probability, allowing us to represent uncertainty, with machine learning, a technique to learn relationships from data which are undiscoverable to humans. Our model is often superior to existing baselines when tested in a simple atmospheric simulation.
Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Bjørn H. Samset, Massimo A. Bollasina, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Marianne T. Lund, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Declan O'Donnell, David J. Paynter, Geeta G. Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Toshihiko Takemura, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sabine Undorf, and Daniel M. Westervelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4451–4479, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional climate change. However, the size of these regional impacts and the way they arise are still uncertain. With large changes in aerosol emissions a possibility over the next few decades, it is important to better quantify the potential role of aerosol in future regional climate change. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project will deliver experiments designed to facilitate this.
Nicholas Depsky, Ian Bolliger, Daniel Allen, Jun Ho Choi, Michael Delgado, Michael Greenstone, Ali Hamidi, Trevor Houser, Robert E. Kopp, and Solomon Hsiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4331–4366, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4331-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a novel open-source modeling platform for evaluating future sea level rise (SLR) impacts. Using nearly 10 000 discrete coastline segments around the world, we estimate 21st-century costs for 230 SLR and socioeconomic scenarios. We find that annual end-of-century costs range from USD 100 billion under a 2 °C warming scenario with proactive adaptation to 7 trillion under a 4 °C warming scenario with minimal adaptation, illustrating the cost-effectiveness of coastal adaptation.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Chen Zhang and Tianyu Fu
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4315–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4315-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new automatic calibration toolkit was developed and implemented into the recalibration of a 3-D water quality model, with observations in a wider range of hydrological variability. Compared to the model calibrated with the original strategy, the recalibrated model performed significantly better in modeled total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, and dissolved oxygen. Our work indicates that hydrological variability in the calibration periods has a non-negligible impact on the water quality models.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Bo Dong, Ross Bannister, Yumeng Chen, Alison Fowler, and Keith Haines
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4233–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional Kalman smoothers are expensive to apply in large global ocean operational forecast and reanalysis systems. We develop a cost-efficient method to overcome the technical constraints and to improve the performance of existing reanalysis products.
Makcim L. De Sisto, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, and Sophia Antoniello
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4113–4136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4113-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4113-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a nitrogen and phosphorus cycle in an intermediate-complexity Earth system climate model. We found that the implementation of nutrient limitation in simulations has reduced the capacity of land to take up atmospheric carbon and has decreased the vegetation biomass, hence, improving the fidelity of the response of land to simulated atmospheric CO2 rise.
Manuel C. Almeida and Pedro S. Coelho
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4083–4112, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Water temperature (WT) datasets of low-order rivers are scarce. In this study, five different models are used to predict the WT of 83 rivers. Generally, the results show that the models' hyperparameter optimization is essential and that to minimize the prediction error it is relevant to apply all the models considered in this study. Results also show that there is a logarithmic correlation among the error of the predicted river WT and the watershed time of concentration.
Lingcheng Li, Yilin Fang, Zhonghua Zheng, Mingjie Shi, Marcos Longo, Charles D. Koven, Jennifer A. Holm, Rosie A. Fisher, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey Chambers, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4017–4040, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately modeling plant coexistence in vegetation demographic models like ELM-FATES is challenging. This study proposes a repeatable method that uses machine-learning-based surrogate models to optimize plant trait parameters in ELM-FATES. Our approach significantly improves plant coexistence modeling, thus reducing errors. It has important implications for modeling ecosystem dynamics in response to climate change.
Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Luke P. Van Roekel, Mark A. Taylor, Wuyin Lin, Benjamin R. Hillman, Paul A. Ullrich, Andrew M. Bradley, Oksana Guba, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Tian Zhou, Kai Zhang, Xue Zheng, Yunyan Zhang, Meng Zhang, Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Cheng Tao, Balwinder Singh, Alan M. Rhoades, Yi Qin, Hong-Yi Li, Yan Feng, Yuying Zhang, Chengzhu Zhang, Charles S. Zender, Shaocheng Xie, Erika L. Roesler, Andrew F. Roberts, Azamat Mametjanov, Mathew E. Maltrud, Noel D. Keen, Robert L. Jacob, Christiane Jablonowski, Owen K. Hughes, Ryan M. Forsyth, Alan V. Di Vittorio, Peter M. Caldwell, Gautam Bisht, Renata B. McCoy, L. Ruby Leung, and David C. Bader
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3953–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3953-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3953-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution simulations are superior to low-resolution ones in capturing regional climate changes and climate extremes. However, uniformly reducing the grid size of a global Earth system model is too computationally expensive. We provide an overview of the fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) of E3SMv2 and document a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM at an economic cost. The key to this success is our innovative hybrid time step method.
Anne Marie Treguier, Clement de Boyer Montégut, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Andy McC. Hogg, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrew E. Kiss, Julien Le Sommer, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Camille Lique, Hailong Liu, Guillaume Serazin, Dmitry Sidorenko, Qiang Wang, Xiaobio Xu, and Steve Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3849–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3849-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3849-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean mixed layer is the interface between the ocean interior and the atmosphere and plays a key role in climate variability. We evaluate the performance of the new generation of ocean models for climate studies, designed to resolve
ocean eddies, which are the largest source of ocean variability and modulate the mixed-layer properties. We find that the mixed-layer depth is better represented in eddy-rich models but, unfortunately, not uniformly across the globe and not in all models.
Duseong S. Jo, Simone Tilmes, Louisa K. Emmons, Siyuan Wang, and Francis Vitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3893–3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3893-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3893-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new simple secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme has been developed for the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) based on the complex SOA scheme in CAM with detailed chemistry (CAM-chem). The CAM with the new SOA scheme shows better agreements with CAM-chem in terms of aerosol concentrations and radiative fluxes, which ensures more consistent results between different compsets in the Community Earth System Model. The new SOA scheme also has technical advantages for future developments.
Leroy J. Bird, Matthew G. W. Walker, Greg E. Bodeker, Isaac H. Campbell, Guangzhong Liu, Swapna Josmi Sam, Jared Lewis, and Suzanne M. Rosier
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3785–3808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Deriving the statistics of expected future changes in extreme precipitation is challenging due to these events being rare. Regional climate models (RCMs) are computationally prohibitive for generating ensembles capable of capturing large numbers of extreme precipitation events with statistical robustness. Stochastic precipitation generators (SPGs) provide an alternative to RCMs. We describe a novel single-site SPG that learns the statistics of precipitation using a machine-learning approach.
Zhe Zhang, Yanping Li, Fei Chen, Phillip Harder, Warren Helgason, James Famiglietti, Prasanth Valayamkunnath, Cenlin He, and Zhenhua Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3809–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Crop models incorporated in Earth system models are essential to accurately simulate crop growth processes on Earth's surface and agricultural production. In this study, we aim to model the spring wheat in the Northern Great Plains, focusing on three aspects: (1) develop the wheat model at a point scale, (2) apply dynamic planting and harvest schedules, and (3) adopt a revised heat stress function. The results show substantial improvements and have great importance for agricultural production.
Abolfazl Simorgh, Manuel Soler, Daniel González-Arribas, Florian Linke, Benjamin Lührs, Maximilian M. Meuser, Simone Dietmüller, Sigrun Matthes, Hiroshi Yamashita, Feijia Yin, Federica Castino, Volker Grewe, and Sabine Baumann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3723–3748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper addresses the robust climate optimal trajectory planning problem under uncertain meteorological conditions within the structured airspace. Based on the optimization methodology, a Python library has been developed, which can be accessed using the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7121862. The developed tool is capable of providing robust trajectories taking into account all probable realizations of meteorological conditions provided by an EPS computationally very fast.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Jatan Buch, A. Park Williams, Caroline S. Juang, Winslow D. Hansen, and Pierre Gentine
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3407–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We leverage machine learning techniques to construct a statistical model of grid-scale fire frequencies and sizes using climate, vegetation, and human predictors. Our model reproduces the observed trends in fire activity across multiple regions and timescales. We provide uncertainty estimates to inform resource allocation plans for fuel treatment and fire management. Altogether the accuracy and efficiency of our model make it ideal for coupled use with large-scale dynamical vegetation models.
Sebastian Ostberg, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, and Sibyll Schaphoff
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3375–3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new toolbox for generating input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem models from diverse and partially conflicting data sources. The toolbox documents the sources and processing of data and is designed to make inconsistencies between source datasets transparent so that users can make their own decisions on how to resolve these should they not be content with our default assumptions. As an example, we use the toolbox to create input datasets at two different spatial resolutions.
Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Rui Sun, and Mario Krapp
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3355–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous modelling of ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere in coupled models is critical for understanding all of the processes that happen in the Antarctic. Here we have developed a coupled model for the Ross Sea, P-SKRIPS, that conserves heat and mass between the ocean and sea ice model (MITgcm) and the atmosphere model (PWRF). We have shown that our developments reduce the model drift, which is important for long-term simulations. P-SKRIPS shows good results in modelling coastal polynyas.
Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Federica Castino, Pratik Rao, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Simone Dietmüller, Christine Frömming, Hiroshi Yamashita, Patrick Peter, Emma Klingaman, Keith P. Shine, Benjamin Lührs, and Florian Linke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3313–3334, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a newly developed submodel ACCF V1.0 based on the MESSy 2.53.0 infrastructure. The ACCF V1.0 is based on the prototype algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) v1.0 to enable climate-optimized flight trajectories. One highlight of this paper is that we describe a consistent full set of aCCFs formulas with respect to fuel scenario and metrics. We demonstrate the usage of the ACCF submodel using AirTraf V2.0 to optimize trajectories for cost and climate impact.
Peter Ukkonen and Robin J. Hogan
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3241–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and weather models suffer from uncertainties resulting from approximated processes. Solar and thermal radiation is one example, as it is computationally too costly to simulate precisely. This has led to attempts to replace radiation codes based on physical equations with neural networks (NNs) that are faster but uncertain. In this paper we use global weather simulations to demonstrate that a middle-ground approach of using NNs only to predict optical properties is accurate and reliable.
Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3123–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Differential programming is a technique that enables the automatic computation of derivatives of the output of models with respect to model parameters. Applying these techniques to Earth system modeling leverages the increasing availability of high-quality data to improve the models themselves. This can be done by either using calibration techniques that use gradient-based optimization or incorporating machine learning methods that can learn previously unresolved influences directly from data.
Carolina Gallo, Jonathan M. Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Peter Z. Fulé, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, and Matthew Blackett
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3103–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study conducts the first global evaluation of the latest generation of global climate models to simulate a set of fire weather indicators from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. Models are shown to perform relatively strongly at the global scale, but they show substantial regional and seasonal differences. The results demonstrate the value of model evaluation and selection in producing reliable fire danger projections, ultimately to support decision-making and forest management.
Klaus Klingmüller and Jos Lelieveld
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3013–3028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3013-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3013-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust has significant impacts on climate, public health, infrastructure and ecosystems. An impact assessment requires numerical predictions, which are challenging because the dust emissions are not well known. We present a novel approach using satellite observations and machine learning to more accurately estimate the emissions and to improve the model simulations.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Rainer Kiko, Fabien Lombard, Lionel Guidi, and Corinne Le Quéré
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2995-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using outputs of global biogeochemical ocean model and machine learning methods, we demonstrate that it will be possible to identify linkages between surface environmental and ecosystem structure and the export of carbon to depth by sinking organic particles using real observations. It will be possible to use this knowledge to improve both our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and of their functional representation within models.
Zhenxia Liu, Zengjie Wang, Jian Wang, Zhengfang Zhang, Dongshuang Li, Zhaoyuan Yu, Linwang Yuan, and Wen Luo
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2939–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2939-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2939-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces an improved method of the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model by the Bayesian network. The improved method constructs a coarse–fine structure that combines a dynamical model with a statistical model based on employing the GREB model as the global framework and utilizing Bayesian networks as the local optimization. The results show that the improved model has better applicability and stability on a global scale and maintains good robustness on the timescale.
Colin Tully, David Neubauer, and Ulrike Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2957–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new method to simulate deterministic ice nucleation processes based on the differential activated fraction was evaluated against a cumulative approach. Box model simulations of heterogeneous-only ice nucleation within cirrus suggest that the latter approach likely underpredicts the ice crystal number concentration. Longer simulations with a GCM show that choosing between these two approaches impacts ice nucleation competition within cirrus but leads to small and insignificant climate effects.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Abdelkader Mezghani, Julia Lutz, Andreas Dobler, Kajsa M. Parding, and Oskar A. Landgren
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2899–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2899-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A mathematical method known as common EOFs is not widely used within the climate research community, but it offers innovative ways of evaluating climate models. We show how common EOFs can be used to evaluate large ensembles of global climate model simulations and distill information about their ability to reproduce salient features of the regional climate. We can say that they represent a kind of machine learning (ML) for dealing with big data.
Li Liu, Chao Sun, Xinzhu Yu, Hao Yu, Qingu Jiang, Xingliang Li, Ruizhe Li, Bin Wang, Xueshun Shen, and Guangwen Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2833–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2833-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
C-Coupler3.0 is an integrated coupler infrastructure with new features, i.e. a series of parallel-optimization technologies, a common halo-exchange library, a common module-integration framework, a common framework for conveniently developing a weakly coupled ensemble data assimilation system, and a common framework for flexibly inputting and outputting fields in parallel. It is able to handle coupling under much finer resolutions (e.g. more than 100 million horizontal grid cells).
Joseph Schoonover, Wilbert Weijer, and Jiaxu Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2795-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
FEOTS aims to enhance the value of data produced by state-of-the-art climate models by providing a framework to diagnose and use ocean transport operators for offline passive tracer simulations. We show that we can capture ocean transport operators from a validated climate model and employ these operators to estimate water mass budgets in an offline regional simulation, using a small fraction of the compute resources required to run a full climate simulation.
Johann Dahm, Eddie Davis, Florian Deconinck, Oliver Elbert, Rhea George, Jeremy McGibbon, Tobias Wicky, Elynn Wu, Christopher Kung, Tal Ben-Nun, Lucas Harris, Linus Groner, and Oliver Fuhrer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2719–2736, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is hard for scientists to write code which is efficient on different kinds of supercomputers. Python is popular for its user-friendliness. We converted a Fortran code, simulating Earth's atmosphere, into Python. This new code auto-converts to a faster language for processors or graphic cards. Our code runs 3.5–4 times faster on graphic cards than the original on processors in a specific supercomputer system.
Anthony Schrapffer, Jan Polcher, Anna Sörensson, and Lluís Fita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-549, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The present paper introduces a floodplains scheme for a high resolution Land Surface Model river routing. It was developed and evaluated over one of the world’s largest floodplains: the Pantanal in South America. This shows the impact of tropical floodplains on land surface conditions (soil moisture, temperature) and on land atmosphere fluxes and highlights the potential impact of floodplains on land-atmosphere interactions and the importance of integrating this module in coupled simulations.
Shuaiqi Tang, Adam C. Varble, Jerome D. Fast, Kai Zhang, Peng Wu, Xiquan Dong, Fan Mei, Mikhail Pekour, Joseph C. Hardin, and Po-Lun Ma
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-51, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
To assess the ability of Earth System Model (ESM) predictions, we developed a tool called ESMAC Diags to understand the details of how aerosols, clouds, and ACI are represented in ESMs, and this paper describes its version 2 functionality. We compared the model predictions with measurements taken by airplanes, ships, satellites, and ground instruments over four regions over the world. Results show that this new tool can help identify model problems and guide future development of ESMs.
Jan Polcher, Anthony Schrapffer, Eliott Dupont, Lucia Rinchiuso, Xudong Zhou, Olivier Boucher, Emmanuel Mouche, Catherine Ottlé, and Jérôme Servonnat
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2583–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2583-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2583-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The proposed graphs of hydrological sub-grid elements for atmospheric models allow us to integrate the topographical elements needed in land surface models for a realistic representation of horizontal water and energy transport. The study demonstrates the numerical properties of the automatically built graphs and the simulated water flows.
Magnus Hieronymus
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2343–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A statistical model called the sea level simulator is presented and made freely available. The sea level simulator integrates mean sea level rise and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework that is useful for flood risk estimation. These flood risk estimates are contingent on probabilities given to different emission scenarios and the length of the planning period. The model is also useful for uncertainty quantification and in decision and adaptation problems.
Cited articles
Amante, C. and Eakins, B. W.:
ETOPO1 1 arc-minute global relief model: procedures, data sources and analysis, NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, 2009.
Artegiani, A., Bregant, D., Paschini, E., Pinardi, N., Raicich, F., and Russo, A.:
The Adriatic Sea general circulation. Part I. Air–sea interactions and water mass structure,
J. Phys. Oceanogr.,
27, 1492–1514, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1492:TASGCP>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Atlas, R., Hoffman, R. N., Ardizzone, J., Leidner, S. M., Jusem, J. C., Smith, D. K., and Gombos, D.:
A cross-calibrated, multiplatform ocean surface wind velocity product for meteorological and oceanographic applications,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
92, 157–174, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2946.1, 2011.
Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H., Dee, D., Dutra, E., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Stockdale, T., and Vitart, F.: ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 389–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015, 2015.
Batistić, M., Garić, R., and Molinero, J. C.:
Interannual variations in Adriatic Sea zooplankton mirror shifts in circulation regimes in the Ionian Sea,
Clim. Res.,
61, 231–240, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01248, 2014.
Bauer, P., Auligné, T., Bell, W., Geer, A., Guidard, V., Heilliette, S., Kazumori, M., Kim, M.-J., Liu, E. H.-C., McNally, A. P., Macpherson, B., Okamoto, K., Renshaw, R., and Riishøjgaard, L.-P.:
Satellite cloud and precipitation assimilation at operational NWP centres,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
137, 1934–1951, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.905, 2011.
Belušić, D. and Klaić, Z. B.:
Estimation of bora wind gusts using a limited area model,
Tellus A,
56, 296–307. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00068.x, 2004.
Belušić, D., Hrastinski, M., Večenaj, Ž., and Grisogono, B.:
Wind regimes associated with a mountain gap at the northeastern Adriatic coast,
J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim.,
52, 2089–2105, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0306.1, 2013.
Belušić Vozila, A., Güttler, I., Ahrens, B., Obermann-Hellhund, A., and Telišman Prtenjak, M.:
Wind over the Adriatic region in CORDEX climate change scenarios,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
124, 110–130, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028552, 2019.
Bensi, M., Cardin, V., Rubino, A., Notarstefano, G., and Poulain, P.-M.:
Effects of winter convection on the deep layer of the Southern Adriatic Sea in 2012,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
118, 6064–6075, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009432, 2013.
Betts, A. K. and Harshvardhan:
Thermodynamic constraint on the cloud liquid water feedback in climate models,
J. Geophys. Res.,
92, 8483–8485, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD092iD07p08483, 1987.
Borzelli, G. L. E., Gačić, M., Cardin, V., and Civitarese, G.:
Eastern Mediterranean Transient and reversal of the Ionian Sea circulation,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
36, L15108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039261, 2009.
Bretherton, C. S. and Park, S.:
A new moist turbulence parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model,
J. Climate,
22, 3422–3448, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2556.1, 2009.
Brzovíć, N. and Strelec Mahović, N.:
Cyclonic activity and severe Jugo in the Adriatic,
Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. B,
24, 653–657, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(99)00061-1, 1999.
Cavaleri, L., Bertotti, L., Buizza, R., Buzzi, A., Masato, V., Umgiesser, G., and Zampieri, M.:
Predictability of extreme meteo-oceanographic events in the Adriatic Sea,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
136, 400–413, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.567, 2010.
Cavaleri, L., Abdalla, S., Benetazzo, A., Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J-R, Breivik, Ø., Carniel, S., Jensen, R. E., Portilla-Yandun, Rogers, W. E., Roland, A., Sanchez-Arcilla, A., Smith, J. M., Staneva, J., Toledo, Y., van Vledder, G. P., and van der Westhuysen, A. J.:
Wave modelling in coastal and inner seas,
Prog. Oceanogr.,
167, 164–233, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.03.010, 2018.
Chan, S. C., Kahana, R., Kendon, E. J., and Fowler, H. J.:
Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model,
Clim. Dynam.,
51, 3559–3577, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4096-4, 2018.
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.:
An ensemble version of the E-OBS temperature and precipitation data sets,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
123, 9391– 9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.
da Rocha, R. P., Reboita, M. S., Dutra, L. M. M., Llopart, M. P., and Coppola, E.:
Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain,
Climatic Change,
125, 95–109, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1119-y, 2014.
Davolio, S., Volonté, A., Manzato, A., Pucillo, A., Cicogna, A., and Ferrario, M. E.:
Mechanisms producing different precipitation patterns over North-Eastern Italy: insights from hymex-SOP1 and previous events,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 188–205, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2731, 2016.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.:
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: confguration and performance of the data assimilation system,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Denamiel, C.: AdriSC Climate Model: evaluation run, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/ZB3CM, 2021a.
Denamiel, C.: Evaluation of the AdriSC climate model: atmospheric part, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/B2CKT, 2021b.
Denamiel, C., Šepić, J., Ivanković, D., and Vilibić, I.:
The Adriatic Sea and Coast modelling suite: Evaluation of the meteotsunami forecast component,
Ocean Model.,
135, 71–93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.02.003, 2019.
Denamiel, C., Pranić, P., Quentin, F., Mihanović, H., and Vilibić, I.:
Pseudo-global warming projections of extreme wave storms in complex coastal regions: the case of the Adriatic Sea,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 2483–2509, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05397-x, 2020a.
Denamiel, C., Tojčić, I., and Vilibić, I.:
Far future climate (2060–2100) of the northern Adriatic air–sea heat transfers associated with extreme bora events,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 3043–3066, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05435-8, 2020b.
Denamiel, C., Tojčić, I., and Vilibić, I.:
Balancing accuracy and efficiency of atmospheric models in the northern Adriatic during severe bora events,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
126, e2020JD033516, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033516, 2021.
Di Virgilio, G., Evans, J. P., Di Luca, A., Olson, R., Argüeso, D., Kala, J., Andrys, J., Hoffmann, P., Katzfey, J. J., and Rockel, B.:
Evaluating reanalysis-driven CORDEX regional climate models over Australia: model performance and errors,
Clim. Dynam.,
53, 2985–3005, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04672-w, 2019.
Drobinski, P., Silva, N. D., Panthou, G., Bastin, S., Muller, C., Ahrens, B., Borga, M., Conte, D., Fosser, G., Giorgi, F., Güttler, I., Kotroni, V., Li, L., Morin, E., Önol, B., Quintana-Segui, P., Romera R., and Zsolt Torma, C.:
Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios,
Clim. Dynam.,
51, 1237–1257, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3083-x, 2018.
Dudhia, J.:
Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model,
J. Atmos. Sci.,
46, 3077–3107, 1989.
Dudhia, J.: A Multi-Layer Soil Temperature Model for MM5, Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users’ Workshop, Boulder, 22–24 July 1996, 49–50, 1996.
Gačić, M., Civitarese, G., Miserocchi, S., Cardin, V., Crise, A., and Mauri, E.:
The open-ocean convection in the Southern Adriatic: a controlling mechanism of the spring phytoplankton bloom,
Cont. Shelf Res.,
22, 1897–1908, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(02)00050-X, 2002.
Gačić, M., Borzelli, G. L. E., Civitarese, G., Cardin, V., and Yari, S.:
Can internal processes sustain reversals of the ocean upper circulation? The Ionian Sea example,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
37, L09608, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043216, 2010.
García-Díez, M., Fernández, J., and Vautard, R.:
An RCM multi-physics ensemble over Europe: Multi-variable evaluation to avoid error compensation,
Clim. Dynam., 45, 3141–3156, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2529-x, 2015.
Giorgi, F., Jones, C., and Asrar, G. R.:
Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework,
WMO Bulletin,
58, 175–183, 2009.
Grisogono, B. and Belušić, D.:
A review of recent advances in understanding the meso- and microscale properties of the severe Bora wind,
Tellus A,
61, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00369.x, 2009.
Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.:
Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming,
J. Climate,
19, 5686–5699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1, 2006.
Huang, B., Polanski, S., and Cubasch, U.:
Assessment of precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-East Asia regional climate simulations,
Clim. Res.,
64, 141–158, https://doi.org/10.3354/CR01302, 2015.
Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., Wolff, D. B., Adler, R. F., Gu, G., Hong, Y., Bowman, K. P., and Stocker, E. F.:
The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales,
J. Hydrometeorol.,
8, 38–55, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM560.1, 2007.
Ivanković, D., Denamiel, C., and Jelavić, D.:
Web visualization of data from numerical models and real-time stations network in frame of Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) Meteotsunami Forecast,
OCEANS 2019, Marseille, France, 17–20 June 2019, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANSE.2019.8867225, 2019.
Janeković, I., Mihanović, H., Vilibić, I., and Tudor, M.:
Extreme cooling and dense water formation estimates in open and coastal regions of the Adriatic Sea during the winter of 2012,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
119, 3200–3218, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC009865, 2014.
Janjić, Z.:
The Step-Mountain eta Coordinate Model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes,
Mon. Weather Rev.,
122, 927–945, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Kain, J. S.:
The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update,
J. Appl. Meteorol.,
43, 170–181, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0170:TKCPAU>2.0.CO;2, 2004.
Kehler-Poljak, G., Telišman Prtenjak, M., Kvakić, M., Šariri, K., and Večenaj, Ž.:
Interaction of sea breeze and deep convection over the northeastern Adriatic Coast: An analysis of sensitivity experiments using a high-resolution mesoscale model,
Pure Appl. Geophys.,
174, 4197–4224, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1607-x, 2017.
Klaić, Z. B., Prodanov, A. D., and Belušić, D.:
Wind measurements in Senj – underestimation of true bora flows,
Geofizika,
26, 245–252, 2009.
Knist, S., Goergen, K., and Simmer, C.:
Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 325–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x, 2020.
Kolios, S. and Kalimeris, A.:
Evaluation of the TRMM rainfall product accuracy over the central Mediterranean during a 20-year period (1998–2017),
Theor. Appl. Climatol.,
139, 785–799, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03015-3, 2020.
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.
Kuzmić, M., Grisogono, B., Li, X., and Lehner, S.:
Examining deep and shallow Adriatic bora events,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
141, 3434–3438. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2578, 2015.
Laprise, R.:
The Euler Equations of motion with hydrostatic pressure as independent variable,
Mon. Weather Rev.,
120, 197–207, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0197:TEEOMW>2.0.CO;2, 1992.
Larson, J., Jacob, R., and Ong, E.:
The Model Coupling Toolkit: A New Fortran90 Toolkit for Building Multiphysics Parallel Coupled Models,
Int. J. High Perform. C.,
19, 277–292, https://doi.org/10.1177/1094342005056115, 2005.
Lawrence, M. G.:
The relationship between relative humidity and the dewpoint temperature in moist air: A simple conversion and applications,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
86, 225–234, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-2-225, 2005.
Li, Y., Li, Z., Zhang, Z., Chen, L., Kurkute, S., Scaff, L., and Pan, X.: High-resolution regional climate modeling and projection over western Canada using a weather research forecasting model with a pseudo-global warming approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4635–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4635-2019, 2019.
Massonnet, F., Bellprat, O., Guemas, V., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.:
Using climate models to estimate the quality of global observational data sets,
Science,
354, 452–455, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf6369, 2016.
Mears, C. A., Scott, J., Wentz, F. J., Ricciardulli, L., Leidner, S. M., Hoffman, R., and Atlas, R.:
A near-real-time version of the Cross-Calibrated Multiplatform (CCMP) ocean surface wind velocity data set,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
124, 6997–7010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015367, 2019.
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.:
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave,
J. Geophys. Res.,
102, 16663, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237, 1997.
Molcard, A., Pinardi, N., Iskandarani, M., and Haivogel, D. B.:
Wind driven general circulation of the Mediterranean Sea simulated with a Spectral Element Ocean Model,
Dynam. Atmos. Oceans,
35, 97–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0265(01)00080-X, 2002.
Mooney, P. A., Mulligan, F. J., and Fealy, R.:
Evaluation of the sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climates of Europe over the period 1990–95,
J. Climate,
26, 1002–1017, 2013.
Morrison, H., Curry, J. A., and Khvorostyanov, V. I.:
A new double-moment microphysics parameterization for application in cloud and climate models. Part I: Description,
J. Atmos. Sci.,
62, 1665–1677, 2005.
Nikulin, G., Jones, C., Giorgi, F., Asrar, G., Büchner, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., Bøssing Christensen, O., Déqué, M., Fernandez, J., Hänsler, A., van Meijgaard, E., Samuelsson, P., Bamba Sylla, M., and Sushama, L.:
Precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations,
J. Climate,
25, 6057–6078, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00375.1, 2012.
Orlić, M., Dadić, V., Grbec, B., Leder, N., Marki, A., Matić, F., Mihanović, H., Beg Paklar, G., Pasarić, M., Pasarić, Z., and Vilibić, I.:
Wintertime buoyancy forcing, changing seawater properties and two different circulation systems produced in the Adriatic,
J. Geophys. Res.,
111, C03S07, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003271, 2007.
Pasarić, Z., Belušić, D., and Klaić, Z. B.: Orographic influences on the Adriatic sirocco wind, Ann. Geophys., 25, 1263–1267, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-25-1263-2007, 2007.
Pinardi, N., Zavatarelli, M., Adani, M., Coppini, G., Fratianni, C., Oddo, P., Simoncelli, S., Tonani, M., Lyubartsev, V., Dobricic, S., and Bonaduce, A.:
Mediterranean Sea large-scale low-frequency ocean variability and water mass formation rates from 1987 to 2007: A retrospective analysis,
Prog. Oceanogr.,
132, 318–332, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.11.003, 2015.
Prein, A., Gobiet, A., Suklitsch, M., Truhetz, H., Awan, N., Keuler, K., and Georgievski, G.:
Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations,
Clim. Dynam.,
41, 2655–2677, 2013.
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S., Schmidli, J., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Leung, R.:
A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects and challenges,
Rev. Geophys.,
53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475, 2015.
Prtenjak, M. T., Viher, M., and Jurković, J.:
Sea-land breeze development during a summer bora event along the north-eastern Adriatic coast,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
136, 1554–1571, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.649, 2010.
Reale, M., Salon, S., Crise, A., Farneti, R., Mosetti, R., and Sannino, G.:
Unexpected covariant behavior of the Aegean and Ionian Seas in the period 1987–2008 by means of a nondimensional sea surface height index,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
122, 8020–8033, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012983, 2017.
Reale, M., Giorgi, F., Solidoro, C., Di Biagio, V., Di Sante, F., Mariotti, L., Farneti, R., and Sannino, G.:
The regional Earth system Model RegCM-ES: Evaluation of the Mediterranean climate and marine biogeochemistry,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
12, e2019MS001812, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001812, 2020.
Ricchi, A., Miglietta, M. M., Falco, P. P., Benetazzo, A., Bonaldo, D., Bergamasco, A., Sclavo, M., and Carniel, S.:
On the use of a coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave model during an extreme cold air outbreak over the Adriatic Sea,
Atmos. Res.,
172–173, 48–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.023, 2016.
Rinke, A. H., Matthes, J. H. Christensen, P., Kuhry, V., Romanovsky, and Dethloff, K.:
Arctic RCM simulations of temperature and precipitation derived indices relevant to future frozen ground conditions,
Global Planet. Change,
80–81,136-148, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.011, 2011.
Roether, W. and Schlitzer, R.:
Eastern Mediterranean deep water renewal on the basis of chlorofluoromethane and tritium data,
Dynam. Atmos. Oceans,
15, 333–354, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0265(91)90025-B, 1991.
Rubino, A., Gačić, M., Bensi, M., Kovačević, V., Malačič, V., Menna, M., Negretti, M. E., Sommeria, J., Zanchettin, D., Barreto, R. V., Ursella, L., Cardin, V., Civitarese, G., Orlić, M., Petelin, B., and Siena, G.:
Experimental evidence of long-term oceanic circulation reversals without wind influence in the North Ionian Sea,
Sci. Rep.-UK,
10, 1905, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57862-6, 2020.
Ruti, P., Somot, S., Giorgi, F., Dubois, C., Flaounas, E., Obermann, A., Dell'Aquila, A., Pisacane, G., Harzallah, A., Lombardi, E., Ahrens, B., Akhtar, N., Alias, A., Arsouze, T., Aznar, R., Bastin, S., Bartholy, J., Béranger, K., Beuvier, J., Bouffies-Cloché, S., Brauch, J., Cabos, W., Calmanti, S., Calvet, J.-C., Carillo, A., Conte, D., Coppola, E., Djurdjevic, V., Drobinski, P., Elizalde, A., Gaertner, M., Galan, P., Gallardo, C., Gualdi, S., Goncalves, M., Jorba, O., Jorda, G., Lheveder, B., Lebeaupin-Brossier, C., Li, L., Liguori, G., Lionello, P., Macias-Moy, D., Nabat, P., Onol, B., Rajkovic, B., Ramage, K., Sevault, F., Sannino, G., Struglia, M. V., Sanna, A., Torma, C., and Vervatis, V.:
MED-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
97, 1187–1208, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00176.1, 2016.
Schär, C., Frei, C., Luthi, D., and Davies, H. C.:
Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
23, 669–672, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL00265, 1996.
Sein, D. V., Gröger, M., Cabos, W., Alvarez-Garcia, F. J., Hagemann, S., Pinto, J. G., Izquierdo, A., de la Vara, A., Koldunov, N. V., Dvornikov, A. Y., Limareva, N., Alekseeva, E., Martinez-Lopez, B., and Jacob, D.:
Regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean-marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 2. Studying the climate change signal in the North Atlantic and Europe,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
12, e2019MS001646, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001646, 2020.
Sevault, F., Somot, S., Alias, A., Dubois, C., Lebeaupin-Brossier, C., Nabat, P., Adloff, F., Déqué, M., and Decharme, B.:
A fully coupled Mediterranean regional climate system model: design and evaluation of the ocean component for the 1980–2012 period,
Tellus A,
66, 23967, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.23967, 2014.
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.:
Correction and commentary for “Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the regional ocean modeling system” by Haidvogel et al., J. Comput. Phys., 227, pp. 3595–3624,
J. Comput. Phys.,
228, 8985–9000, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2009.09.002, 2009.
Simoncelli, S., Fratianni, C., Pinardi, N., Grandi, A., Drudi, M., Oddo, P., and Dobricic, S.:
Mediterranean Sea physical reanalysis (MEDREA 1987-2015) (Version 1),
Copernicus Monitoring Environment Marine Service (CMEMS), https://doi.org/10.25423/medsea_reanalysis_phys_006_004, 2014.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.:
A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2,. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-468+STR, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6DZ069T, 2005.
Somot, S., Sevault, F., and Déqué, M.:
Transient climate change scenario simulation of the Mediterranean Sea for the twenty-first century using a high-resolution ocean circulation model,
Clim. Dynam.,
27, 851–879, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0167-z, 2006.
Somot, S., Ruti, P., Ahrens, B., Coppola, E., Jordà, G., Sannino, G., and Solmon, F.:
Editorial for the Med-CORDEX special issue,
Clim. Dyn.,
51, 771–777, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4325-x, 2018.
Taylor, K. E.:
Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram,
J. Geophys. Res.,
106, 7183–7192, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719, 2001.
Varga, Á. J. and Breuer, H.:
Sensitivity of simulated temperature, precipitation, and global radiation to different WRF configurations over the Carpathian Basin for regional climate applications,
Clim. Dynam.,
55, 2849–2866, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05416-x, 2020.
Vilibić, I., Mihanović, H., Janeković, I., Denamiel, C., Poulain, P.-M., Orlić, M., Dunić, N., Dadić, V., Pasarić, M., Muslim, S., Gerin, R., Matić, F., Šepić, J., Mauri, E., Kokkini, Z., Tudor, M., Kovač, Ž., and Džoić, T.: Wintertime dynamics in the coastal northeastern Adriatic Sea: the NAdEx 2015 experiment, Ocean Sci., 14, 237–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-237-2018, 2018.
Warner, J. C., Armstrong, B., He, R., and Zambon, J. B.:
Development of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system,
Ocean Model.,
35, 230–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.07.010, 2010.
Warrach-Sagi, K., Schwitalla, T., Wulfmeyer, V., and Bauer, H.-S.:
Evaluation of a climate simulation in Europe based on the WRF-NOAH model system: precipitation in Germany,
Clim. Dynam.,
41, 755–774, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1727-7, 2013.
Weatherall, P., Marks, K. M., Jakobsson, M., Schmitt, T., Tani, S., Arndt, J. E., Rovere, M., Chayes, D., Ferrini, V., and Wigley, R.:
A new digital bathymetric model of the world's oceans,
Earth and Space Science,
2, 331–345, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EA000107, 2015.
Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., and Roberts, N. M.:
Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall,
Rev. Geophys., 52, 522–555, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000464, 2014.
Zou, L. and Zhou, T.:
Dynamical downscaling of East Asian winter monsoon changes with a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
143, 2245–2259, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3082, 2017.
Short summary
The atmospheric results of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate simulation (1987–2017) are evaluated against available observational datasets in the Adriatic region. Generally, the AdriSC model performs better than regional climate models that have resolutions that are 4 times more coarse, except concerning summer temperatures, which are systematically underestimated. High-resolution climate models may thus provide new insights about the local impacts of global warming in the Adriatic.
The atmospheric results of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate simulation (1987–2017)...
