Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration
Nicholas J. Leach
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Stuart Jenkins
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Zebedee Nicholls
Australian–German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Christopher J. Smith
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
John Lynch
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Michelle Cain
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Tristram Walsh
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Bill Wu
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Junichi Tsutsui
Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan
Myles R. Allen
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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- Feedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0 L. Ramme et al.
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- The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy S. Jenkins et al.
- The Social Cost of Ozone‐Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions E. McDuffie et al.
- Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon M. Burke et al.
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- Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C S. Jenkins et al.
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- Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty M. Chim et al.
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- Quantifying Climate Change Loss and Damage Consistent with a Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases M. Burke et al.
- Why addressing methane emissions is a non-negotiable part of effective climate policy A. Reisinger
- Modeling the non-CO2 contribution to climate change C. Smith & T. Gasser
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- Using reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol and climate models to produce large ensemble simulations of Holocene temperature M. Verkerk et al.
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- Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C A. Reisinger et al.
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- Temporary carbon dioxide removals to offset methane emissions F. Venmans et al.
- Net Zero: Science, Origins, and Implications M. Allen et al.
- How much methane removal is required to avoid overshooting 1.5 ∘C? C. Smith & C. Mathison
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- Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot G. Munday et al.
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris
- Considering sectoral warming and cooling emissions and their lifetimes can improve climate change mitigation policies B. Buma et al.
- Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP S. Fiedler et al.
- Emulators of Climate Model Output C. Tebaldi et al.
- Assessing alternative methane emission metrics conducive to quantifying global warming and setting near-term climate goals J. Miller et al.
- AgriFoodPy: a package for modelling food systems J. Cordero et al.
- Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social cost of carbon C. Smith et al.
- Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model J. Brown et al.
- Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals M. Cain et al.
- A top-down approach for climate change mitigation strategies C. Marchesi et al.
- An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields G. Geogdzhayev et al.
- Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2 K. Rennert et al.
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al.
- Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for Paris climate goals C. Brunner et al.
- Chemistry-albedo feedbacks offset up to a third of forestation’s CO 2 removal benefits J. Weber et al.
- Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections A. Ribes et al.
- The climate opportunities and risks of contrail avoidance J. Smith et al.
- Enhancing Carbon Sequestration: A Systematic Literature Review of Spatial Decision Support Tools E. Tarasova et al.
103 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A note on effects of fossil fuel reduction policies on atmospheric carbon dioxide buildup and global warming B. Alagoz et al.
- An overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans W. Schoenberg et al.
- Feedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0 L. Ramme et al.
- Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled Z. Nicholls et al.
- Modified cost-risk analysis as a bridge between target-based and trade-off-based decision-making frameworks V. Avakumović & B. Blanz
- The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy S. Jenkins et al.
- The Social Cost of Ozone‐Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions E. McDuffie et al.
- Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon M. Burke et al.
- Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks M. Allen et al.
- NewTools: a novel collaboration across the Norwegian food system with the aim of developing tools for food system transformation H. Meltzer et al.
- Global methane action pays for itself at least six times over T. Stoerk et al.
- The social costs of aviation CO2 and contrail cirrus D. Johansson et al.
- Long run emulator calibration increases warming and sea-level rise projections C. Wells et al.
- Global agricultural N2O emission reduction strategies deliver climate benefits with minimal impact on stratospheric O3 recovery J. Weber et al.
- Building Interpretable Climate Emulators for Economics A. Eftekhari et al.
- The utility of novel environmental impact metrics in UK ruminant mitigation J. Zionts et al.
- Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems V. Srikrishnan et al.
- The social costs of hydrofluorocarbons and the benefits from their expedited phase-down T. Tan et al.
- High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble M. Sarofim et al.
- Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China’s net-zero pathway J. Zhong et al.
- Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C S. Jenkins et al.
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al.
- From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3) L. Beusch et al.
- Emulating long-term CMIP6 projections of sterodynamic sea-level change using a three-layer energy balance model V. Malagón-Santos et al.
- FRIDA-Clim v1.0.1: a simple climate model with process-based carbon cycle used in the integrated assessment model FRIDAv2.1 C. Wells et al.
- Path analysis for controlling climate change in global aviation Q. Cui et al.
- China Can Achieve Carbon Neutrality in Line with the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C Target: Navigating Global Emissions Scenarios, Warming Levels, and Extreme Event Projections X. Zhang et al.
- Benefit Analysis of Geological Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Based on Social Benefit A. Miyagi et al.
- Mitigating Carbon Leakage in China’s Carbon Neutrality Through Coordinated Greenhouse Gas Reductions and Increased Natural Carbon Uptake R. Su et al.
- Protocol to calculate the climate effects of the global aviation industry using the Aviation-FAIR model Q. Cui & Y. Zhou
- High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw J. Deutloff et al.
- Pathways to global hydrogen production within planetary boundaries M. Lejeune et al.
- Within-country inequality and the shaping of a just global climate policy M. Young-Brun et al.
- Fixed climate feedback assumptions systematically underestimate policy-relevant economic risks: Implications for climate resilience W. SHEN et al.
- Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6 M. Rypdal et al.
- Climate sensitivity from radiative-convective equilibrium: A chalkboard approach N. Jeevanjee
- Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty M. Chim et al.
- A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation C. Womack et al.
- Peak shaving with solar radiation modification would shorten global temperature overshoot L. Boselius et al.
- International Welfare Gains from Sharing Climate-Risk F. Kubler
- Sustainable aviation in the context of the Paris Agreement: A review of prospective scenarios and their technological mitigation levers S. Delbecq et al.
- Carbon budget concept and its deviation through the pulse response lens V. Avakumović
- National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850 M. Jones et al.
- Quantifying Climate Change Loss and Damage Consistent with a Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases M. Burke et al.
- Why addressing methane emissions is a non-negotiable part of effective climate policy A. Reisinger
- Modeling the non-CO2 contribution to climate change C. Smith & T. Gasser
- Analysis of an opinion dynamics model coupled with an external environmental dynamics A. Couthures et al.
- Comment on ‘National temperature neutrality, agricultural methane and climate policy: reinforcing inequality in the global food system’ J. Wheatley
- Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models A. Romero-Prieto et al.
- Score‐Based Generative Emulation of Impact‐Relevant Earth System Model Outputs S. Bouabid et al.
- Using reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol and climate models to produce large ensemble simulations of Holocene temperature M. Verkerk et al.
- Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model K. Dorheim et al.
- Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability C. Callahan & J. Mankin
- fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections C. Smith et al.
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al.
- OMPS-LP aerosol extinction coefficients and their applicability in GloSSAC M. Kovilakam et al.
- SuCCESs – a global IAM for exploring the interactions between energy, materials, land use, and climate systems in long-term scenarios (model version 2024-10-23) T. Ekholm et al.
- Global-to-local-to-global interactions and climate change U. Baldos et al.
- Overshoot: A Conceptual Review of Exceeding and Returning to Global Warming of 1.5°C A. Reisinger et al.
- Origins of a Relatively Tight Lower Bound on Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Forcing from Bayesian Analysis of Historical Observations A. Albright et al.
- emIAM v1.0: an emulator for integrated assessment models using marginal abatement cost curves W. Xiong et al.
- Evaluating temporal trade-offs in climate effects from carbon dioxide removal strategies across different metrics: a case study on wetland restoration S. Sartzetakis et al.
- Response function analysis of carbon dioxide and climate using the Padé-Laplace technique I. Enting
- Reducing the large short-lived impact of methane emissions with temporary carbon removals F. Venmans et al.
- Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation L. Corre et al.
- Reducing uncertainty in local temperature projections S. Qasmi & A. Ribes
- Climate tipping points and their potential impact on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe P. van Thienen et al.
- Analyzing climate scenarios using dynamic mode decomposition with control N. Mankovich et al.
- Carbon storage portfolios for the transition to net zero C. Hickey et al.
- Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon B. Bastien-Olvera et al.
- Scaling up gas and electric cooking in low- and middle-income countries: climate threat or mitigation strategy with co-benefits? E. Floess et al.
- Global carbon cycle: model complexity and BIBO stability E. Canuto et al.
- IPCC and the effectiveness of carbon sinks C. Azar & D. Johansson
- The key role of propane in a sustainable cooling sector P. Purohit et al.
- The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures J. Kikstra et al.
- The Montreal Protocol is delaying the occurrence of the first ice-free Arctic summer M. England & L. Polvani
- Temporary carbon dioxide removals to offset methane emissions F. Venmans et al.
- Net Zero: Science, Origins, and Implications M. Allen et al.
- How much methane removal is required to avoid overshooting 1.5 ∘C? C. Smith & C. Mathison
- Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate S. Arriolabengoa et al.
- Weakening AMOC reduces ocean carbon uptake and increases the social cost of carbon F. Schaumann & E. Alastrué de Asenjo
- The social cost of methane C. Azar et al.
- Opinion: The role of AerChemMIP in advancing climate and air quality research P. Griffiths et al.
- Meta-modelling paths of simple climate models using neural networks and dirichlet polynomials: an application to DICE E. Gobet et al.
- Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot G. Munday et al.
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris
- Considering sectoral warming and cooling emissions and their lifetimes can improve climate change mitigation policies B. Buma et al.
- Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP S. Fiedler et al.
- Emulators of Climate Model Output C. Tebaldi et al.
- Assessing alternative methane emission metrics conducive to quantifying global warming and setting near-term climate goals J. Miller et al.
- AgriFoodPy: a package for modelling food systems J. Cordero et al.
- Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social cost of carbon C. Smith et al.
- Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model J. Brown et al.
- Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals M. Cain et al.
- A top-down approach for climate change mitigation strategies C. Marchesi et al.
- An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields G. Geogdzhayev et al.
- Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2 K. Rennert et al.
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al.
- Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for Paris climate goals C. Brunner et al.
- Chemistry-albedo feedbacks offset up to a third of forestation’s CO 2 removal benefits J. Weber et al.
- Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections A. Ribes et al.
- The climate opportunities and risks of contrail avoidance J. Smith et al.
- Enhancing Carbon Sequestration: A Systematic Literature Review of Spatial Decision Support Tools E. Tarasova et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 May 2026
Short summary
This paper presents an update of the FaIR simple climate model, which can estimate the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions on the global climate. This update aims to significantly increase the structural simplicity of the model, making it more understandable and transparent. This simplicity allows it to be implemented in a wide range of environments, including Excel. We suggest that it could be used widely in academia, corporate research, and education.
This paper presents an update of the FaIR simple climate model, which can estimate the impact of...