Articles | Volume 10, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
22 Jun 2017
Development and technical paper |
| 22 Jun 2017
Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Bernd Funke
Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC), Granada, Spain
Monika E. Andersson
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Luke Barnard
University of Reading, Reading, UK
Jürg Beer
EAWAG, Dübendorf, Switzerland
Paul Charbonneau
University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada
Mark A. Clilverd
British Antarctic Survey (NERC), Cambridge, UK
Thierry Dudok de Wit
LPC2E, CNRS and University of Orléans, Orléans, France
Margit Haberreiter
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
Aaron Hendry
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Charles H. Jackman
Emeritus, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Matthieu Kretzschmar
LPC2E, CNRS and University of Orléans, Orléans, France
Tim Kruschke
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Markus Kunze
Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Ulrike Langematz
Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Daniel R. Marsh
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Amanda C. Maycock
University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Stergios Misios
Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Craig J. Rodger
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Adam A. Scaife
Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter, Devon, UK
Annika Seppälä
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Ming Shangguan
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Miriam Sinnhuber
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Kleareti Tourpali
Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Ilya Usoskin
Space Climate Research Unit and Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
Max van de Kamp
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Pekka T. Verronen
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Stefan Versick
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Related authors
Wenjuan Huo, Tobias Spiegl, Sebastian Wahl, Katja Matthes, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2589–2612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2589-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2589-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties of the solar signals in the middle atmosphere are assessed based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models. Our results demonstrate that the 11-year solar signals in the shortwave heating rate, temperature, and ozone anomalies are significant and robust. The simulated dynamical responses are model-dependent, and solar imprints in the polar night jet are influenced by biases in the model used.
Tabea Rahm, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Martje Hänsch, and Katja Matthes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-667, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime events that can impact surface weather. However, a distinct surface response is not observed for every SSW. Here, we classify SSWs that do and do not impact the troposphere in ERA5 reanalysis data. In addition, we evaluate the effects of two kinds of waves: planetary and synoptic-scale. Our findings emphasize that the lower stratosphere and synoptic-scale waves play crucial roles in coupling the SSW signal to the surface.
Annika Drews, Wenjuan Huo, Katja Matthes, Kunihiko Kodera, and Tim Kruschke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7893–7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, and Jan Harlaß
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 139–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recover during the twenty-first century. We separate the effects of ozone recovery and of greenhouse gases on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and we find that ozone recovery is generally reducing the impact of greenhouse gases, with the exception of certain regions of the stratosphere during spring, where the two effects reinforce each other.
Ioannis A. Daglis, Loren C. Chang, Sergio Dasso, Nat Gopalswamy, Olga V. Khabarova, Emilia Kilpua, Ramon Lopez, Daniel Marsh, Katja Matthes, Dibyendu Nandy, Annika Seppälä, Kazuo Shiokawa, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Qiugang Zong
Ann. Geophys., 39, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling), covering the period 2020 to 2024. PRESTO was defined by a dedicated committee established by SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). We review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Sabine Haase, Jaika Fricke, Tim Kruschke, Sebastian Wahl, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14043–14061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depletion over Antarctica was shown to influence the tropospheric jet in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the atmospheric response to ozone depletion comparing climate model ensembles with interactive and prescribed ozone fields. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry and model physics as well as including asymmetries in ozone leads to a strengthened ozone depletion signature in the stratosphere but does not significantly affect the tropospheric jet position.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11569–11592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rossby wave packet (RWP) dynamics are crucial for weather forecasting, climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Our study is a first attempt to describe RWP behavior in the UTLS with global coverage directly from observations, using GNSS-RO data. Our novel results show an interesting relation of RWP vertical propagation with sudden stratospheric warmings and provide very useful information to improve RWP diagnostics in models and reanalysis.
Julian Krüger, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Karl Bumke, and Katja Matthes
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-32, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the European heat wave occurrences of 2015 and 2018, this study evaluates the influence of cold North Atlantic SST anomalies on European heat waves by using the ERA-5 reanalysis product. Our findings show that widespread cold North Atlantic SST anomalies may be a precursor for a persistent jet stream pattern and are thus important for the onset of high European temperatures.
Markus Kunze, Tim Kruschke, Ulrike Langematz, Miriam Sinnhuber, Thomas Reddmann, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6991–7019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling the response of the atmosphere and its constituents to 11-year solar variations is subject to a certain uncertainty arising from the solar irradiance data set used in the chemistry–climate model (CCM) and the applied CCM itself.
This study reveals significant influences from both sources on the variations in the solar response in the stratosphere and mesosphere.
However, there are also regions where the random, unexplained part of the variations in the solar response is largest.
Haiyan Li, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6541–6561, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The QBO westerly phase was reversed by an unexpected easterly jet near 40 hPa and the westerly zonal wind lasted an unusually long time at 20 hPa during winter 2015/16. We find that quasi-stationary Rossby wave W1 and faster Rossby wave W2 propagating from the northern extratropics and a locally generated Rossby wave W3 were important contributors to the easterly jet at 40 hPa. Our results suggest that the unusual zonal wind structure at 20 hPa could be caused by enhanced Kelvin wave activity.
Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, Torge Martin, Tim Brücher, Annika Drews, Dana Ehlert, Klaus Getzlaff, Fritz Krüger, Willi Rath, Markus Scheinert, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Tobias Bayr, Hauke Schmidt, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2533–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced, consisting of a high-top atmosphere, an ocean model, sea-ice and land surface model components. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve small-scale oceanic features, for example, the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi)decadal scales and bridges the gap to coarse-resolution climate models.
Sabine Haase and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3417–3432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole influences surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Recent studies have shown that stratospheric ozone depletion in the Arctic can also affect the surface. We evaluate the importance of the direct and indirect representation of ozone variability in a climate model for this surface response. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry, radiation, and dynamics enhances and prolongs the surface response to Northern Hemisphere spring ozone depletion.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Vered Silverman, Nili Harnik, Katja Matthes, Sandro W. Lubis, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6637–6659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a quantified and mechanistic understanding of the radiative effects of ozone waves on the NH stratosphere. In particular, we find these effects to influence the seasonal evolution of the midlatitude QBO signal (Holton–Tan effect), which is important for getting realistic dynamical interactions in climate models. We also provide a synoptic view on the evolution of the seasonal development of the Holton–Tan effect by looking at the life cycle of upward-propagating waves.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4093–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4093-2017, 2017
Sandro W. Lubis, Vered Silverman, Katja Matthes, Nili Harnik, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2437–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Downward wave coupling (DWC) events impact high-latitude stratospheric ozone in two ways: (1) reduced dynamical transport of ozone from low to high latitudes during individual events and (2) enhanced springtime chemical destruction of ozone via the cumulative impact of DWC events on polar stratospheric temperatures. The results presented here broaden the scope of the impact of wave–mean flow interaction on stratospheric ozone by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.
Kunihiko Kodera, Rémi Thiéblemont, Seiji Yukimoto, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12925–12944, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial structure of the solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface is analysed to identify the mechanisms. Both tropical and extratropical solar surface signals can result from circulation changes in the upper stratosphere through (i) a downward migration of wave zonal mean flow interactions and (ii) changes in the stratospheric mean meridional circulation. Amplification of the solar signal also occurs through interaction with the ocean.
Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Detection and attribution of climate change is the process of determining the causes of observed climate changes, which has underpinned key conclusions on the role of human influence on climate in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper describes a coordinated set of climate model experiments that will form part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and will support improved attribution of climate change in the next IPCC report.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11617–11633, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11617-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11617-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a detailed overview of the daily variability of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the tropics, where TIL research had focused little. The vertical and horizontal structures of this atmospheric layer are described and linked to near-tropopause horizontal wind divergence, the QBO and especially to equatorial waves. Our results increase the knowledge about the observed properties of the tropical TIL, mainly using satellite GPS radio-occultation measurements.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Lon Hood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10021–10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of changes in incoming solar radiation on stratospheric ozone has important impacts on the atmosphere. Understanding this ozone response is crucial for constraining how solar activity affects climate. This study analyses the solar ozone response (SOR) in satellite datasets and shows that there are substantial differences in the magnitude and spatial structure across different records. In particular, the SOR in the new SAGE v7.0 mixing ratio data is smaller than in the previous v6.2.
Ming Shangguan, Katja Matthes, Wuke Wang, and Tae-Kwon Wee
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-248, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
A first validation of the COSMIC Radio Occultation (RO) water vapor data in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are presented in this paper. The COSMIC water vapor shows a good agreement with the Microwave limb Sounder (MLS) in both the spatial distribution and the seasonal to interannual variations. It is very valuable for studying the water vapor in the UTLS, thanks to its global coverage, all- weather aptitude and high vertical resolution.
W. Wang, K. Matthes, and T. Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5815–5826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5815-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5815-2015, 2015
I. Ermolli, K. Matthes, T. Dudok de Wit, N. A. Krivova, K. Tourpali, M. Weber, Y. C. Unruh, L. Gray, U. Langematz, P. Pilewskie, E. Rozanov, W. Schmutz, A. Shapiro, S. K. Solanki, and T. N. Woods
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013
Markus Kunze, Christoph Zülicke, Tarique A. Siddiqui, Claudia C. Stephan, Yosuke Yamazaki, Claudia Stolle, Sebastian Borchert, and Hauke Schmidt
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3359–3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3359-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model with an upper-atmospheric extension with the physics package for numerical weather prediction (UA-ICON(NWP)). We optimized the parameters for the gravity wave parameterizations and achieved realistic modeling of the thermal and dynamic states of the mesopause regions. UA-ICON(NWP) now shows a realistic frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings and well-represented solar tides in temperature.
Yvonne Anderson, Jacob Perez, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 595–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-595-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the North Atlantic jet stream is debated, with some linking changes to ice loss and others to natural variability. This study uses a new method to explore how future sea ice loss will affect the jet stream. In half of the models, the jet shifts equatorward, but its speed and tilt are unchanged. Some models also exhibit more jet splitting. The results suggest that future sea ice loss is unlikely to significantly weaken the jet stream or make it more variable.
Hannah E. Kessenich, Annika Seppälä, Dan Smale, Craig J. Rodger, and Mark Weber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-873, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We use observational data to track a mass of mesospheric air which descends into the Antarctic polar vortex each spring. The altitude of the air mass at the end of October is used to create a new diagnostic metric. The metric captures the dynamical conditions of the vortex and can be used to estimate the amount of poleward ozone transport in October. When used as a proxy for October polar total column ozone, the metric explains the majority (63%) of the observed variance from 2004–2024.
Tuomas Häkkilä, Maxime Grandin, Markus Battarbee, Monika E. Szeląg, Markku Alho, Leo Kotipalo, Niilo Kalakoski, Pekka T. Verronen, and Minna Palmroth
Ann. Geophys., 43, 217–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-217-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-217-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We study the atmospheric impact of auroral electron precipitation through the novel combination of both magnetospheric modelling and atmospheric modelling. We first simulate fluxes of auroral electrons and then use these fluxes to model their atmospheric impact. We find an increase of more than 200 % in thermospheric odd nitrogen and a corresponding decrease in stratospheric ozone of around 0.8 %. The produced auroral electron precipitation is realistic and shows potential for future studies.
Pekka T. Verronen, Akira Mizuno, Yoshizumi Miyoshi, Sandeep Kumar, Taku Nakajima, Shin-Ichiro Oyama, Tomoo Nagahama, Satonori Nozawa, Monika E. Szelag, Tuomas Häkkilä, Niilo Kalakoski, Antti Kero, Esa Turunen, Satoshi Kasahara, Shoichiro Yokota, Kunihiro Keika, Tomoaki Hori, Takefumi Mitani, Takeshi Takashima, and Iku Shinohara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1691, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Annales Geophysicae (ANGEO).
Short summary
Short summary
We use NO column density data from the Syowa station in Antarctica from 2012–2017. We compare these ground-based radiometer observations with results from a global atmosphere model to understand the year-to-year and day-to-day variability, shortcomings of current electron forcing, and how geomagnetic storms are driving the variability of NO. Our results demonstrate an underestimation in the magnitude of day-to-day variability in simulations, which calls for improved electron forcing in models.
Gregory Cooke, Dan Marsh, Catherine Walsh, Felix Sainsbury-Martinez, and Marrick Braam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1133, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
During the Archean eon (4–2.4 Gyr ago), Earth's atmosphere lacked oxygen (O2) but contained nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and methane. As cyanobacteria evolved, they produced O2, while hydrogen (H) escaped, making Earth more oxidized. Around 2.4 billion years ago, oxygen levels rose, limiting hydrogen loss. Using 3D computer simulations, we found that oxygen concentrations affect the upward diffusion of water vapor (H2O). We therefore quantify the rate of hydrogen escape as O2 changes.
Cecilia Tirelli, Simone Ceccherini, Samuele Del Bianco, Bernd Funke, Michael Höpfner, Ugo Cortesi, and Piera Raspollini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1283, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
The Complete Data Fusion is an a posteriori method to combine remote sensing products from independent observations of the same air mass. In this study, we extended the algorithm’s applicability to two-dimensional products, testing it with simulated ozone datasets from nadir and limb measurements. We demonstrated that the exploitation of the tomographic capabilities of future atmospheric sensors maximizes the information extracted from complementary datasets.
Hiroaki Naoe, Jorge L. Garcia-Franco, Chang-Hyun Park, Mario Rodrigo, Froila M. Palmeiro, Federico Serva, Masakazu Taguchi, Kohei Yoshida, James A. Anstey, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Seok-Woo Son, Yoshio Kawatani, Neal Butchart, Kevin Hamilton, Chih-Chieh Chen, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Francois Lott, Clara Orbe, Scott Osprey, Mijeong Park, Jadwiga H. Richter, Stefan Versick, and Shingo Watanabe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1148, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines links between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and large-scale atmospheric circulations in the tropics, subtropics, and polar regions. The QBO teleconnections and their modulation by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated through a series of climate model experiments. While QBO teleconnections are qualitatively reproduced by the multi-model ensemble, they are not consistent due to modelled QBO bias and other systematic model biases.
Florian Voet, Felix Ploeger, Johannes Laube, Peter Preusse, Paul Konopka, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Jörn Ungermann, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Michael Höpfner, Bernd Funke, Gerald Wetzel, Sören Johansson, Gabriele Stiller, Eric Ray, and Michaela I. Hegglin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3541–3565, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study refines estimates of the stratospheric “age of air”, a measure of how long air circulates in the stratosphere. By analyzing correlations between trace gases measurable by satellites, the research introduces a method that reduces uncertainties and detects small-scale atmospheric features. This improved understanding of stratospheric circulation is crucial for better climate models and predictions, enhancing our ability to assess the impacts of climate change on the atmosphere.
Lena Feld, Pablo Schmid, Marios Mermigkas, Dimitrios Balis, Jochen Gross, Darko Dubravica, Carlos Alberti, Benedikt Herkommer, Stefan Versick, Roland Ruhnke, Frank Hase, and Peter Braesicke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-639, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our goal is to measure CO2 emissions from cities, to verify and improve our knowledge of reported anthropogenic emissions. We use atmospheric measurements and simulations of CO2 transport to find an independent estimate. This study investigates the CO2 emissions of the city of Thessaloniki, where the reported emissions differ. The data we collected indicates that the emissions are larger than stated by the ODIAC inventory, which we used for our simulations.
Anna Moustaka, Stelios Kazadzis, Emmanouil Proestakis, Anton Lopatin, Oleg Dubovik, Kleareti Tourpali, Christos Zerefos, Vassilis Amiridis, and Antonis Gkikas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-888, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
North Africa and the Middle East are home to the world’s most active dust sources, but accurately monitoring airborne dust remains challenging. We refine satellite-based dust retrievals by improving the lidar ratio, a key parameter in aerosol observations, using data from multiple sensors. Our findings reveal regional variations in dust optical depth (DOD), leading to improved climatological assessments. These results enhance climate models and air quality studies.
Amanda C. Maycock, Christine M. McKenna, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Jacob Perez, and Julia F. Lockwood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1131, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Winter North Atlantic storms cause significant financial losses and damage in Europe. This study shows that modes of seasonal large-scale climate variability called the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern modulate the exposure to cyclone related extreme wind, precipitation and storm surge hazards across many parts of Europe. The results have the potential to be combined with skilful seasonal climate forecasts of climate modes to inform the insurance sector.
Weronika Osmolska, Charles Chemel, Amanda Maycock, and Paul Field
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1014, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme cold temperatures have widespread impacts on health, agriculture, infrastructures and the economy. We develop for the first time a methodology to build a catalogue of cold spell events, tracked in space and time. This catalogue is used to examine the behaviour of cold spells and its climatology. The results reveal specific pathways through which cold air affect midlatitudes.
Wenjuan Huo, Tobias Spiegl, Sebastian Wahl, Katja Matthes, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2589–2612, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2589-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2589-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainties of the solar signals in the middle atmosphere are assessed based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models. Our results demonstrate that the 11-year solar signals in the shortwave heating rate, temperature, and ozone anomalies are significant and robust. The simulated dynamical responses are model-dependent, and solar imprints in the polar night jet are influenced by biases in the model used.
Norbert Glatthor, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Sylvia Kellmann, and Andrea Linden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1175–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1175-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1175-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present global upper-tropospheric distributions of the pollutants HCN, CO, C2H2, C2H6, PAN, and HCOOH, observed between 2002 and 2012 by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the Environmental Satellite (Envisat). By comparing the spatial distributions of their volume mixing ratios and by global correlation and regression analyses, we draw conclusions on their sources, such as biomass burning, anthropogenic sources, and biogenic release.
Maryam Ramezani Ziarani, Miriam Sinnhuber, Thomas Reddmann, Bernd Funke, Stefan Bender, and Michael Prather
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-227, 2025
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Our study aims to present a new method for incorporating top-down solar forcing into stratospheric ozone relying on linearized ozone scheme. The addition of geomagnetic forcing led to significant ozone losses in the polar upper stratosphere of both hemispheres due to the catalytic cycles involving NOy. In addition to the particle precipitation effect, accounting for solar UV variability in the ICON-ART model leads to the changes in ozone in the tropical stratosphere.
Dillon Elsbury, Federico Serva, Julie M. Caron, Seung-Yoon Back, Clara Orbe, Jadwiga H. Richter, James A. Anstey, Neal Butchart, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Yoshio Kawatani, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Francois Lott, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott Osprey, Froila M. Palmeiro, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3950, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a major tropical weather pattern, is influenced by persistent El Niño or La Niña sea surface temperature conditions during winter. Using a coordinated set of climate model experiments, we find that El Niño strengthens Kelvin waves, speeding up MJO propagation, while La Niña strengthens Rossby waves, slowing it down. Better understanding these interactions between the MJO and ocean helps us better understand natural climate variability.
Marc Hansen, Daniela Banyś, Mark Clilverd, David Wenzel, Tero Raita, and Mohammed Mainul Hoque
Ann. Geophys., 43, 55–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-55-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-43-55-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The amplitude of subionospheric very low-frequency (VLF) radio signals does not show a symmetrical behavior over the year, which would be expected from its dependency on the solar position. The VLF amplitude rather shows a distinctive sharp decrease around October, which is hence called the "October effect". This study is the first to systematically investigate this October effect, which shows a clear latitudinal dependency.
Weiyu Zhang, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril J. Morcrette, Wuhu Feng, Kalli Furtado, Paul R. Field, Chih-Chieh Chen, Andrew Gettelman, Piers M. Forster, Daniel R. Marsh, and Alexandru Rap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Contrail cirrus is the largest, but also most uncertain, contribution of aviation to global warming. We evaluate, for the first time, the impact of the host climate model on contrail cirrus properties. Substantial differences exist between contrail cirrus formation, persistence, and radiative effects in the host climate models. Reliable contrail cirrus simulations require advanced representation of cloud optical properties and microphysics, which should be better constrained by observations.
Viktoria F. Sofieva, Alexei Rozanov, Monika Szelag, John P. Burrows, Christian Retscher, Robert Damadeo, Doug Degenstein, Landon A. Rieger, and Adam Bourassa
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5227–5241, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5227-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-related studies need information about the distribution of stratospheric aerosols, which influence the energy balance of the Earth’s atmosphere. In this work, we present a merged dataset of vertically resolved stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficients, which is derived from data of six limb and occultation satellite instruments. The created aerosol climate record covers the period from October 1984 to December 2023. It can be used in various climate-related studies.
Jianfei Wu, Wuhu Feng, Xianghui Xue, Daniel Robert Marsh, and John Maurice Campbell Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12133–12141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Metal layers occur in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region 80–120 km from the ablation of cosmic dust. Nonmigrating diurnal tides are persistent global oscillations. We investigate nonmigrating diurnal tidal variations in metal layers using satellite observations and global climate model simulations; these have not been studied previously due to the limitations of measurements. The nonmigrating diurnal tides in temperature are strongly linked to the corresponding change in metal layers.
Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Shingo Watanabe, James A. Anstey, Jadwiga H. Richter, Neal Butchart, Clara Orbe, Scott M. Osprey, Hiroaki Naoe, Dillon Elsbury, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier García-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Tobias Kerzenmacher, François Lott, Froila M. Palmerio, Mijeong Park, Federico Serva, Masakazu Taguchi, Stefan Versick, and Kohei Yoshioda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3270, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratospheric mean winds has been relatively steady over the 7 decades it has been observed, but there are always cycle-to-cycle variations. This study used several global atmospheric models to investigate systematic modulation of the QBO by the El Niño/La Niña cycle. All models simulated shorter periods during El Niño, in agreement with observations. By contrast, the models disagreed even on the sign of the El Niño effect on QBO amplitude.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a simple yet effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Anja Lindenthal, Claudia Hinrichs, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Tim Kruschke, Priidik Lagemaa, Eefke M. van der Lee, Ilja Maljutenko, Helen E. Morrison, Tabea R. Panteleit, and Urmas Raudsepp
State Planet, 4-osr8, 16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-16-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, large parts of the Baltic Sea experienced the third-warmest to warmest summer and autumn temperatures since 1997 and several marine heatwaves (MHWs). Using remote sensing, reanalysis, and in situ data, this study characterizes regional differences in MHW properties in the Baltic Sea in 2022. Furthermore, it presents an analysis of long-term trends and the relationship between atmospheric warming and MHW occurrences, including their propagation into deeper layers.
Connor J. Clayton, Daniel R. Marsh, Steven T. Turnock, Ailish M. Graham, Kirsty J. Pringle, Carly L. Reddington, Rajesh Kumar, and James B. McQuaid
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10717–10740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate that strong climate mitigation could improve air quality in Europe; however, less ambitious mitigation does not result in these co-benefits. We use a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model. This allows us to demonstrate how this varies across European countries and analyse the underlying chemistry. This may help policy-facing researchers understand which sectors and regions need to be prioritised to achieve strong air quality co-benefits of climate mitigation.
Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh
Ann. Geophys., 42, 395–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term change in the ionosphere are expected due to increases in greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. Empirical formulae are used to estimate height. Through comparison with independent data we show that there are seasonal and long-term biases introduced by the empirical model. We conclude that estimates of long-term changes in ionospheric height need to account for these biases.
Jacob Perez, Amanda C. Maycock, Stephen D. Griffiths, Steven C. Hardiman, and Christine M. McKenna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1061–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1061-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterisation. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Lesley J. Gray, Stergios Misios, Scott Osprey, and Hedi Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2487, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study has examined a set of reanalyses, both modern and 20th Century, to evaluate the robustness of the signatures of the 11-yr solar cycle in the North Atlantic climate. We find a robust response to the 11-yr solar cycle over the North Atlantic sector with a positive SLP anomaly north of the Azores region at lags of +2–3 years following solar maximum. An ocean reanalysis dataset shows that thermal inertia of the ocean could explain the lag in the SC response.
Matthias Nützel, Laura Stecher, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Michael Ponater, Phoebe Graf, and Markus Kunze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We extended the infrastructure of our modelling system to enable the use of an additional radiation scheme. After calibrating the model setups to the old and the new radiation scheme, we find that the simulation with the new scheme shows considerable improvements, e.g. concerning the cold-point temperature and stratospheric water vapour. Furthermore, perturbations of radiative fluxes associated with greenhouse gas changes, e.g. of methane, tend to be improved when the new scheme is employed.
Miriam Sinnhuber, Christina Arras, Stefan Bender, Bernd Funke, Hanli Liu, Daniel R. Marsh, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Timofei Sukhodolov, Monika E. Szelag, and Jan Maik Wissing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2256, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Formation of nitric oxide NO in the upper atmosphere varies with solar activity. Observations show that it starts a chain of processes in the entire atmosphere affecting the ozone layer and climate system. This is often underestimated in models. We compare five models which show large differences in simulated NO. Analysis of results point out problems related to the oxygen balance, and to the impact of atmospheric waves on dynamics. Both must be modeled well to reproduce the downward coupling.
Rémy Bonnet, Christine M. McKenna, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 913–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models underestimate multidecadal winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Understanding the origin of this weak variability is important for making reliable climate projections. We use multi-model climate simulations to explore statistical relationships with drivers that may contribute to NAO variability. We find a relationship between modelled stratosphere–troposphere coupling and multidecadal NAO variability, offering an avenue to improve the simulation of NAO variability.
Manuel López-Puertas, Federico Fabiano, Victor Fomichev, Bernd Funke, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4401–4432, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The radiative infrared cooling of CO2 in the middle atmosphere is crucial for computing its thermal structure. It requires one however to include non-local thermodynamic equilibrium processes which are computationally very expensive, which cannot be afforded by climate models. In this work, we present an updated, efficient, accurate and very fast (~50 µs) parameterization of that cooling able to cope with CO2 abundances from half the pre-industrial values to 10 times the current abundance.
Viktoria F. Sofieva, Monika Szelag, Johanna Tamminen, Didier Fussen, Christine Bingen, Filip Vanhellemont, Nina Mateshvili, Alexei Rozanov, and Christine Pohl
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3085–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3085-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3085-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed the new multi-wavelength dataset of aerosol extinction profiles, which are retrieved from the averaged transmittance spectra by the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars instrument aboard Envisat. The retrieved aerosol extinction profiles are provided in the altitude range 10–40 km at 400, 440, 452, 470, 500, 525, 550, 672 and 750 nm for the period 2002–2012. FMI-GOMOSaero aerosol profiles have improved quality; they are in good agreement with other datasets.
Norbert Glatthor, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Udo Grabowski, Michael Höpfner, Sylvia Kellmann, Michael Kiefer, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Manuel López-Puertas, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2849–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2849-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2849-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present global atmospheric methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) distributions retrieved from measurements of the MIPAS instrument on board the Environmental Satellite (Envisat) during 2002 to 2012. Monitoring of these gases is of scientific interest because both of them are strong greenhouse gases. We analyze the latest, improved version of calibrated MIPAS measurements. Further, we apply a new retrieval scheme leading to an improved CH4 and N2O data product .
Lisa Degenhardt, Gregor C. Leckebusch, and Adam A. Scaife
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 587–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how dynamical factors that are known to influence cyclone or windstorm development and strengthening also influence the seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorms. This study shows which factors are well represented in the seasonal forecast model, the Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), and which might need improvement to refine the forecast of severe winter windstorms.
Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Michael Kiefer, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, and Manuel López-Puertas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1759–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CFC-11, CFC-12, and HCFC-22 contribute to the depletion of ozone and are potent greenhouse gases. They have been banned by the Montreal protocol. With MIPAS on Envisat the atmospheric composition could be observed between 2002 and 2012. We present here the retrieval of their atmospheric distributions for the final data version 8. We characterise the derived data by their error budget and their spatial resolution. An additional representation for direct comparison to models is also provided.
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g. 100 year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations, to get more accurate information on 5–10 year time scales. Reliable information on these time scales is very important, especially for water management experts to know how much meltwater to expect, for rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
Tabea Rahm, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Martje Hänsch, and Katja Matthes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-667, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime events that can impact surface weather. However, a distinct surface response is not observed for every SSW. Here, we classify SSWs that do and do not impact the troposphere in ERA5 reanalysis data. In addition, we evaluate the effects of two kinds of waves: planetary and synoptic-scale. Our findings emphasize that the lower stratosphere and synoptic-scale waves play crucial roles in coupling the SSW signal to the surface.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes to sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific are driven partly by patterns of local atmospheric circulation, such as the Aleutian Low. We show that an intensification of the Aleutian Low could contribute to small changes in temperatures across the equatorial Pacific via the initiation of two mechanisms. The effect, although significant, is unlikely to explain fully the recently observed multi-year shift of a pattern of climate variability across the wider Pacific.
Bernd Funke, Thierry Dudok de Wit, Ilaria Ermolli, Margit Haberreiter, Doug Kinnison, Daniel Marsh, Hilde Nesse, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1217–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We outline a road map for the preparation of a solar forcing dataset for the upcoming Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), considering the latest scientific advances made in the reconstruction of solar forcing and in the understanding of climate response while also addressing the issues that were raised during CMIP6.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Manuel López-Puertas, Maya García-Comas, Bernd Funke, Thomas von Clarmann, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Michael Kiefer, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5609–5645, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new version (V8) of ozone data from MIPAS middle-atmosphere spectra. The dataset comprises high-quality ozone profiles from 20 to 100 km, with pole-to-pole latitude coverage for the day- and nighttime, spanning 2005 until 2012. An exhaustive treatment of errors has been performed. Compared to other satellite instruments, MIPAS ozone shows a positive bias of 5 %–8 % below 70 km. In the upper mesosphere, this new version agrees much better than previous ones (within 10 %).
Maya García-Comas, Bernd Funke, Manuel López-Puertas, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Michael Kiefer, Andrea Linden, Belén Martínez-Mondéjar, Gabriele P. Stiller, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5357–5386, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have released version 8 of MIPAS IMK–IAA temperatures and pointing information retrieved from MIPAS Middle and Upper Atmosphere mode version 8.03 calibrated spectra, covering 20–115 km altitude. We considered non-local thermodynamic equilibrium emission explicitly for each limb scan, essential to retrieve accurate temperatures above the mid-mesosphere. Comparisons of this temperature dataset with SABER measurements show excellent agreement, improving those of previous MIPAS versions.
John M. C. Plane, Jörg Gumbel, Konstantinos S. Kalogerakis, Daniel R. Marsh, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13255–13282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mesosphere or lower thermosphere region of the atmosphere borders the edge of space. It is subject to extreme ultraviolet photons and charged particles from the Sun and atmospheric gravity waves from below, which tend to break in this region. The pressure is very low, which facilitates chemistry involving species in excited states, and this is also the region where cosmic dust ablates and injects various metals. The result is a unique and exotic chemistry.
Monali Borthakur, Miriam Sinnhuber, Alexandra Laeng, Thomas Reddmann, Peter Braesicke, Gabriele Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Ilya Usoskin, Jan Maik Wissing, and Olesya Yakovchuk
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12985–13013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12985-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12985-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reduced ozone levels resulting from ozone depletion mean more exposure to UV radiation, which has various effects on human health. We analysed solar events to see what influence it has on the chemistry of Earth's atmosphere and how this atmospheric chemistry change can affect the ozone. To do this, we used an atmospheric model considering only chemistry and compared it with satellite data. The focus was mainly on the contribution of chlorine, and we found about 10 %–20 % ozone loss due to that.
Tobias C. Spiegl, Ulrike Langematz, Holger Pohlmann, and Jürgen Kröger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the role of the solar cycle in atmospheric domains with the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model in high resolution (MPI-ESM-HR). We focus on the tropical upper stratosphere, Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter dynamics and potential surface imprints. We found robust solar signals at the tropical stratopause and a weak dynamical response in the NH during winter. However, we cannot confirm the importance of the 11-year solar cycle for decadal variability in the troposphere.
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, and Piers M. Forster
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 817–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There are many possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different places. Complex models can study these impacts but take a long time to run, even on powerful computers. Simple methods can be used to reduce this time by estimating the complex model output, but these are not perfect. This study looks at the accuracy of one of these techniques, showing that there are limitations to its use, especially for low-emission future scenarios.
Thomas Reddmann, Miriam Sinnhuber, Jan Maik Wissing, Olesya Yakovchuk, and Ilya Usoskin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6989–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6989-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent analyses of isotopic records of ice cores and sediments have shown that very strong explosions may occur on the Sun, perhaps about one such explosion every 1000 years. Such explosions pose a real threat to humankind. It is therefore of great interest to study the impact of such explosions on Earth. We analyzed how the explosions would affect the chemistry of the middle atmosphere and show that the related ozone loss is not dramatic and that the atmosphere will recover within 1 year.
Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Michael Kiefer, Andrea Linden, Manuel López-Puertas, Gabriele P. Stiller, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2167–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
New global nitric oxide (NO) volume-mixing-ratio and lower-thermospheric temperature data products, retrieved from Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) spectra with the IMK-IAA MIPAS data processor, have been released. The dataset covers the entire Envisat mission lifetime and includes retrieval results from all MIPAS observation modes. The data are based on ESA version 8 calibration and were processed using an improved retrieval approach.
Viktoria F. Sofieva, Monika Szelag, Johanna Tamminen, Carlo Arosio, Alexei Rozanov, Mark Weber, Doug Degenstein, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Michael Kiefer, Alexandra Laeng, Kaley A. Walker, Patrick Sheese, Daan Hubert, Michel van Roozendael, Christian Retscher, Robert Damadeo, and Jerry D. Lumpe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1881–1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1881-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1881-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the updated SAGE-CCI-OMPS+ climate data record of monthly zonal mean ozone profiles. This dataset covers the stratosphere and combines measurements by nine limb and occultation satellite instruments (SAGE II, OSIRIS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, ACE-FTS, OMPS-LP, POAM III, and SAGE III/ISS). The update includes new versions of MIPAS, ACE-FTS, and OSIRIS datasets and introduces data from additional sensors (POAM III and SAGE III/ISS) and retrieval processors (OMPS-LP).
Michael Kiefer, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Michael Höpfner, Sylvia Kellmann, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Manuel López-Puertas, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 1443–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-1443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new ozone data set, derived from radiation measurements of the space-borne instrument MIPAS, is presented. It consists of more than 2 million single ozone profiles from 2002–2012, covering virtually all latitudes and altitudes between 5 and 70 km. Progress in data calibration and processing methods allowed for significant improvement of the data quality, compared to previous data versions. Hence, the data set will help to better understand e.g. the time evolution of ozone in the stratosphere.
Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Steven C. Hardiman, Hazel E. Thornton, Xiaocen Shen, Lin Wang, and Bo Pang
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 213–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden-stratospheric-warming (SSW) events can severely affect the subsequent weather at the surface. We use a large ensemble of climate model hindcasts to investigate features of the climate that make strong impacts more likely through negative NAO conditions. This allows a more robust assessment than using observations alone. Air pressure over the Arctic prior to an SSW and the zonal-mean zonal wind in the lower stratosphere have the strongest relationship with the subsequent NAO response.
Thomas von Clarmann, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Bernd Funke, Michael Kiefer, Anne Kleinert, Gabriele P. Stiller, Andrea Linden, and Sylvia Kellmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 6991–7018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6991-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6991-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Errors of profiles of temperature and mixing ratios retrieved from spectra recorded with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding are estimated. All known and quantified sources of uncertainty are considered. Some ongoing uncertaities contribute to both the random and to the systematic errors. In some cases, one source of uncertainty propagates onto the error budget via multiple pathways. Problems arise when the correlations of errors to be propagated are unknown.
Gerald Wetzel, Michael Höpfner, Hermann Oelhaf, Felix Friedl-Vallon, Anne Kleinert, Guido Maucher, Miriam Sinnhuber, Janna Abalichin, Angelika Dehn, and Piera Raspollini
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 6669–6704, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6669-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-6669-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite measurements of stratospheric trace gases are essential for monitoring distributions and trends of these species on a global scale. Here, we compare the final MIPAS ESA Level 2 version 8 data (temperature and trace gases) with measurements obtained with the balloon version of MIPAS in terms of data agreement of both sensors, including combined errors. For most gases, we find a 5 % to 20 % agreement of the retrieved vertical profiles of both MIPAS instruments in the lower stratosphere.
Wuke Wang, Jin Hong, Ming Shangguan, Hongyue Wang, Wei Jiang, and Shuyun Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13695–13711, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13695-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13695-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ozone layer protects the life on the Earth by absorbing the ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Beside the long-term trend, there are strong interannual fluctuations in stratospheric ozone. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is an important interannual mode in the stratosphere. We show some new zonally asymmetric features of its impacts on stratospheric ozone using satellite data, ERA5 reanalysis, and model simulations, which is helpful for predicting the regional UV radiation at the surface.
Kostas Eleftheratos, John Kapsomenakis, Ilias Fountoulakis, Christos S. Zerefos, Patrick Jöckel, Martin Dameris, Alkiviadis F. Bais, Germar Bernhard, Dimitra Kouklaki, Kleareti Tourpali, Scott Stierle, J. Ben Liley, Colette Brogniez, Frédérique Auriol, Henri Diémoz, Stana Simic, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Kaisa Lakkala, and Kostas Douvis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12827–12855, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12827-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12827-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the future evolution of DNA-active ultraviolet (UV) radiation in view of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and decreasing ozone depleting substances (ODSs). It is shown that DNA-active UV radiation might increase after 2050 between 50° N–50° S due to GHG-induced reductions in clouds and ozone, something that is likely not to happen at high latitudes, where DNA-active UV radiation will continue its downward trend mainly due to stratospheric ozone recovery from the reduction in ODSs.
Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Niramson Azouz, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Daan Hubert, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Peter Effertz, Gérard Ancellet, Doug A. Degenstein, Daniel Zawada, Lucien Froidevaux, Stacey Frith, Jeannette Wild, Sean Davis, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Thierry Leblanc, Richard Querel, Kleareti Tourpali, Robert Damadeo, Eliane Maillard Barras, René Stübi, Corinne Vigouroux, Carlo Arosio, Gerald Nedoluha, Ian Boyd, Roeland Van Malderen, Emmanuel Mahieu, Dan Smale, and Ralf Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11657–11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An updated evaluation up to 2020 of stratospheric ozone profile long-term trends at extrapolar latitudes based on satellite and ground-based records is presented. Ozone increase in the upper stratosphere is confirmed, with significant trends at most latitudes. In this altitude region, a very good agreement is found with trends derived from chemistry–climate model simulations. Observed and modelled trends diverge in the lower stratosphere, but the differences are non-significant.
Bingkun Yu, Xianghui Xue, Christopher J. Scott, Mingjiao Jia, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Daniel R. Marsh, Jonas Hedin, Jörg Gumbel, and Xiankang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11485–11504, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11485-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a study on the climatology of the metal sodium layer in the upper atmosphere from the ground-based measurements obtained from a lidar network, the Odin satellite measurements, and a global model of meteoric sodium in the atmosphere. Comprehensively, comparisons show good agreement and some discrepancies between ground-based observations, satellite measurements, and global model simulations.
Carsten Baumann, Antti Kero, Shikha Raizada, Markus Rapp, Michael P. Sulzer, Pekka T. Verronen, and Juha Vierinen
Ann. Geophys., 40, 519–530, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-40-519-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Arecibo radar was used to probe free electrons of the ionized atmosphere between 70 and 100 km altitude. This is also the altitude region were meteors evaporate and form secondary particulate matter, the so-called meteor smoke particles (MSPs). Free electrons attach to these MSPs when the sun is below the horizon and cause a drop in the number of free electrons, which are the subject of these measurements. We also identified a different number of free electrons during sunset and sunrise.
Stergios Misios, Ioannis Logothetis, Mads F. Knudsen, Christoffer Karoff, Vassilis Amiridis, and Kleareti Tourpali
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of strong volcanic eruptions on the northerly Etesian winds blowing in the eastern Mediterranean. Μodel simulations of the last millennium demonstrate a robust reduction in the total number of days with Etesian winds in the post-eruption summers. The decline in the Etesian winds is attributed to a weakened Indian summer monsoon in the post-eruption summer. These findings could improve seasonal predictions of the wind circulation in the eastern Mediterranean.
Ming Shangguan and Wuke Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9499–9511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Skilful predictions of weather and climate on subseasonal to seasonal scales are valuable for decision makers. Here we show the global spatiotemporal variation of the temperature SAO in the UTLS with GNSS RO and reanalysis data. The formation of the SAO is explained by an energy budget analysis. The results show that the SAO in the UTLS is partly modified by the SSTs according to model simulations. The results may provide an important source for seasonal predictions of the surface weather.
Ville Maliniemi, Pavle Arsenovic, Annika Seppälä, and Hilde Nesse Tyssøy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8137–8149, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) on Antarctic stratospheric ozone chemistry over the whole 20th century. We find a significant increase of reactive nitrogen due to EP, which can deplete ozone via a catalytic reaction. Furthermore, significant modulation of active chlorine is obtained related to EPP, which impacts ozone depletion by both active chlorine and EPP. Our results show that EPP has been a significant modulator of ozone chemistry during the CFC era.
Annika Drews, Wenjuan Huo, Katja Matthes, Kunihiko Kodera, and Tim Kruschke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7893–7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Solar irradiance varies with a period of approximately 11 years. Using a unique large chemistry–climate model dataset, we investigate the solar surface signal in the North Atlantic and European region and find that it changes over time, depending on the strength of the solar cycle. For the first time, we estimate the potential predictability associated with including realistic solar forcing in a model. These results may improve seasonal to decadal predictions of European climate.
Viktoria F. Sofieva, Risto Hänninen, Mikhail Sofiev, Monika Szeląg, Hei Shing Lee, Johanna Tamminen, and Christian Retscher
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3193–3212, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3193-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3193-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present tropospheric ozone column datasets that have been created using combinations of total ozone column from OMI and TROPOMI with stratospheric ozone column datasets from several available limb-viewing instruments (MLS, OSIRIS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, OMPS-LP, GOMOS). The main results are (i) several methodological developments, (ii) new tropospheric ozone column datasets from OMI and TROPOMI, and (iii) a new high-resolution dataset of ozone profiles from limb satellite instruments.
Mark Weber, Carlo Arosio, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Vitali E. Fioletov, Stacey M. Frith, Jeannette D. Wild, Kleareti Tourpali, John P. Burrows, and Diego Loyola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6843–6859, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6843-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in column ozone have been determined from five merged total ozone datasets spanning the period 1978–2020. We show that ozone recovery due to the decline in stratospheric halogens after the 1990s (as regulated by the Montreal Protocol) is evident outside the tropical region and amounts to half a percent per decade. The ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere is however compensated for by the negative long-term trend contribution from atmospheric dynamics since the year 2000.
Irina Mironova, Miriam Sinnhuber, Galina Bazilevskaya, Mark Clilverd, Bernd Funke, Vladimir Makhmutov, Eugene Rozanov, Michelle L. Santee, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Thomas Ulich
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6703–6716, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6703-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
From balloon measurements, we detected unprecedented, extremely powerful, electron precipitation over the middle latitudes. The robustness of this event is confirmed by satellite observations of electron fluxes and chemical composition, as well as by ground-based observations of the radio signal propagation. The applied chemistry–climate model shows the almost complete destruction of ozone in the mesosphere over the region where high-energy electrons were observed.
David A. Newnham, Mark A. Clilverd, William D. J. Clark, Michael Kosch, Pekka T. Verronen, and Alan E. E. Rogers
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2361–2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone (O3) is an important trace gas in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), affecting heating rates and chemistry. O3 profiles measured by the Ny-Ålesund Ozone in the Mesosphere Instrument agree with Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) for winter night-time, but autumn twilight SABER abundances are up to 50 % higher. O3 abundances in the MLT from two different SABER channels also show significant differences for both autumn twilight and summer daytime.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, and Jan Harlaß
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 139–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, while the Antarctic ozone hole is expected to recover during the twenty-first century. We separate the effects of ozone recovery and of greenhouse gases on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and we find that ozone recovery is generally reducing the impact of greenhouse gases, with the exception of certain regions of the stratosphere during spring, where the two effects reinforce each other.
Sheena Loeffel, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Reddmann, Frauke Fritsch, Stefan Versick, Gabriele Stiller, and Florian Haenel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1175–1193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1175-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
SF6-derived trends of stratospheric AoA from observations and model simulations disagree in sign. SF6 experiences chemical degradation, which we explicitly integrate in a global climate model. In our simulations, the AoA trend changes sign when SF6 sinks are considered; thus, the process has the potential to reconcile simulated with observed AoA trends. We show that the positive AoA trend is due to the SF6 sinks themselves and provide a first approach for a correction to account for SF6 loss.
Kseniia Golubenko, Eugene Rozanov, Gennady Kovaltsov, Ari-Pekka Leppänen, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Ilya Usoskin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7605–7620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7605-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new full 3-D time-dependent model, based on SOCOL-AERv2, of beryllium atmospheric production, transport, and deposition has been developed and validated using directly measured data. The model is recommended to be used in studies related to, e.g., atmospheric dynamical patterns, extreme solar particle storms, long-term solar activity reconstruction from cosmogenic proxy data, and solar–terrestrial relations.
Ioannis A. Daglis, Loren C. Chang, Sergio Dasso, Nat Gopalswamy, Olga V. Khabarova, Emilia Kilpua, Ramon Lopez, Daniel Marsh, Katja Matthes, Dibyendu Nandy, Annika Seppälä, Kazuo Shiokawa, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Qiugang Zong
Ann. Geophys., 39, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed account of the science programme PRESTO (PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling), covering the period 2020 to 2024. PRESTO was defined by a dedicated committee established by SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). We review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.
Jianfei Wu, Wuhu Feng, Han-Li Liu, Xianghui Xue, Daniel Robert Marsh, and John Maurice Campbell Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15619–15630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15619-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Metal layers occur in the MLT region (80–120 km) from the ablation of cosmic dust. The latest lidar observations show these metals can reach a height approaching 200 km, which is challenging to explain. We have developed the first global simulation incorporating the full life cycle of metal atoms and ions. The model results compare well with lidar and satellite observations of the seasonal and diurnal variation of the metals and demonstrate the importance of ion mass and ion-neutral coupling.
Pekka T. Verronen, Antti Kero, Noora Partamies, Monika E. Szeląg, Shin-Ichiro Oyama, Yoshizumi Miyoshi, and Esa Turunen
Ann. Geophys., 39, 883–897, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-883-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-883-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is the first to simulate and analyse the pulsating aurorae impact on middle atmosphere on monthly/seasonal timescales. We find that pulsating aurorae have the potential to make a considerable contribution to the total energetic particle forcing and increase the impact on upper stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone in the polar regions. Thus, it should be considered in atmospheric and climate simulations.
Viktoria J. Nordström and Annika Seppälä
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12835–12853, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12835-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12835-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The winter winds over Antarctica form a stable vortex. However, in 2019 the vortex was disrupted and the temperature in the polar stratosphere rose by 50°C. This event, called a sudden stratospheric warming, is a rare event in the Southern Hemisphere, with the only known major event having taken place in 2002. The 2019 event helps us unravel its causes, which are largely unknown. We have discovered a unique behaviour of the equatorial winds in 2002 and 2019 that may signal an impending SH SSW.
Klaus Wyser, Torben Koenigk, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Mehdi Pasha Karami, and Tim Kruschke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4781–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4781-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the large ensemble done by SMHI with the EC-Earth3 climate model. The ensemble comprises 50 realizations for each of the historical experiments after 1970 and four different future projections for CMIP6. We describe the creation of the initial states for the ensemble and the reduced set of output variables. A first look at the results illustrates the changes in the climate during this century and puts them in relation to the uncertainty from the model's internal variability.
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Ville Maliniemi, Hilde Nesse Tyssøy, Christine Smith-Johnsen, Pavle Arsenovic, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11041–11052, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate ozone variability over the 21st century with different greenhouse gas scenarios. Our results highlight a novel mechanism of additional reactive nitrogen species descending to the Antarctic stratosphere from the thermosphere/upper mesosphere due to the accelerated residual circulation under climate change. This excess descending NOx can potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.
Tian Tian, Shuting Yang, Mehdi Pasha Karami, François Massonnet, Tim Kruschke, and Torben Koenigk
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4283–4305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Three decadal prediction experiments with EC-Earth3 are performed to investigate the impact of ocean, sea ice concentration and thickness initialization, respectively. We find that the persistence of perennial thick ice in the central Arctic can affect the sea ice predictability in its adjacent waters via advection process or wind, despite those regions being seasonally ice free during two recent decades. This has implications for the coming decades as the thinning of Arctic sea ice continues.
Michael Kiefer, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Anne Kleinert, Alexandra Laeng, Andrea Linden, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, and Gabriele P. Stiller
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4111–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4111-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An improved dataset of vertical temperature profiles of the Earth's atmosphere in the altitude range 5–70 km is presented. These profiles are derived from measurements of the MIPAS instrument onboard ESA's Envisat satellite. The overall improvements are based on upgrades in the input data and several improvements in the data processing approach. Both of these are discussed, and an extensive error discussion is included. Enhancements of the new dataset are demonstrated by means of examples.
Michaela I. Hegglin, Susann Tegtmeier, John Anderson, Adam E. Bourassa, Samuel Brohede, Doug Degenstein, Lucien Froidevaux, Bernd Funke, John Gille, Yasuko Kasai, Erkki T. Kyrölä, Jerry Lumpe, Donal Murtagh, Jessica L. Neu, Kristell Pérot, Ellis E. Remsberg, Alexei Rozanov, Matthew Toohey, Joachim Urban, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, Hsiang-Jui Wang, Carlo Arosio, Robert Damadeo, Ryan A. Fuller, Gretchen Lingenfelser, Christopher McLinden, Diane Pendlebury, Chris Roth, Niall J. Ryan, Christopher Sioris, Lesley Smith, and Katja Weigel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1855–1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1855-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1855-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An overview of the SPARC Data Initiative is presented, to date the most comprehensive assessment of stratospheric composition measurements spanning 1979–2018. Measurements of 26 chemical constituents obtained from an international suite of space-based limb sounders were compiled into vertically resolved, zonal monthly mean time series. The quality and consistency of these gridded datasets are then evaluated using a climatological validation approach and a range of diagnostics.
Viktoria F. Sofieva, Monika Szeląg, Johanna Tamminen, Erkki Kyrölä, Doug Degenstein, Chris Roth, Daniel Zawada, Alexei Rozanov, Carlo Arosio, John P. Burrows, Mark Weber, Alexandra Laeng, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Lucien Froidevaux, Nathaniel Livesey, Michel van Roozendael, and Christian Retscher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6707–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6707-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6707-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The MErged GRIdded Dataset of Ozone Profiles is a long-term (2001–2018) stratospheric ozone profile climate data record with resolved longitudinal structure that combines the data from six limb satellite instruments. The dataset can be used for various analyses, some of which are discussed in the paper. In particular, regionally and vertically resolved ozone trends are evaluated, including trends in the polar regions.
Ioana Ivanciu, Katja Matthes, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, and Arne Biastoch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5777–5806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole has driven substantial dynamical changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere over the past decades. This study separates the historical impacts of ozone depletion from those of rising levels of greenhouse gases and investigates how these impacts are captured in two types of climate models: one using interactive atmospheric chemistry and one prescribing the CMIP6 ozone field. The effects of ozone depletion are more pronounced in the model with interactive chemistry.
Christopher J. Scott, Shannon Jones, and Luke A. Barnard
Ann. Geophys., 39, 309–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-309-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The composition of the upper atmosphere has been difficult to measure with localised observations relying on spacecraft, suborbital rockets or measurements of airglow from ground-based observatories. The height profile of ionisation within the neutral upper atmosphere is influenced by the composition of the neutral gas. We present a method for determining the neutral upper-atmosphere composition from measurements of the ionisation profile and compare these with spacecraft measurements.
Bingkun Yu, Xianghui Xue, Christopher J. Scott, Jianfei Wu, Xinan Yue, Wuhu Feng, Yutian Chi, Daniel R. Marsh, Hanli Liu, Xiankang Dou, and John M. C. Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4219–4230, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A long-standing mystery of metal ions within Es layers in the Earth's upper atmosphere is the marked seasonal dependence, with a summer maximum and a winter minimum. We report a large-scale winter-to-summer transport of metal ions from 6-year multi-satellite observations and worldwide ground-based stations. A global atmospheric circulation is responsible for the phenomenon. Our results emphasise the effect of this atmospheric circulation on the transport of composition in the upper atmosphere.
Minna Palmroth, Maxime Grandin, Theodoros Sarris, Eelco Doornbos, Stelios Tourgaidis, Anita Aikio, Stephan Buchert, Mark A. Clilverd, Iannis Dandouras, Roderick Heelis, Alex Hoffmann, Nickolay Ivchenko, Guram Kervalishvili, David J. Knudsen, Anna Kotova, Han-Li Liu, David M. Malaspina, Günther March, Aurélie Marchaudon, Octav Marghitu, Tomoko Matsuo, Wojciech J. Miloch, Therese Moretto-Jørgensen, Dimitris Mpaloukidis, Nils Olsen, Konstantinos Papadakis, Robert Pfaff, Panagiotis Pirnaris, Christian Siemes, Claudia Stolle, Jonas Suni, Jose van den IJssel, Pekka T. Verronen, Pieter Visser, and Masatoshi Yamauchi
Ann. Geophys., 39, 189–237, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-39-189-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This is a review paper that summarises the current understanding of the lower thermosphere–ionosphere (LTI) in terms of measurements and modelling. The LTI is the transition region between space and the atmosphere and as such of tremendous importance to both the domains of space and atmosphere. The paper also serves as the background for European Space Agency Earth Explorer 10 candidate mission Daedalus.
Emily M. Gordon, Annika Seppälä, Bernd Funke, Johanna Tamminen, and Kaley A. Walker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2819–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is the rain of solar energetic particles into the Earth's atmosphere. EPP is known to deplete O3 in the polar mesosphere–upper stratosphere via the formation of NOx. NOx also causes chlorine deactivation in the lower stratosphere and has, thus, been proposed to potentially result in reduced ozone depletion in the spring. We provide the first evidence to show that NOx formed by EPP is able to remove active chlorine, resulting in enhanced total ozone column.
Jacob W. Smith, Peter H. Haynes, Amanda C. Maycock, Neal Butchart, and Andrew C. Bushell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2469–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2469-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper informs realistic simulation of stratospheric water vapour by clearly attributing each of the two key influences on water vapour entry to the stratosphere. Presenting modified trajectory models, the results of this paper show temperatures dominate on annual and inter-annual variations; however, transport has a significant effect in reducing the annual cycle maximum. Furthermore, sub-seasonal variations in temperature have an important overall influence.
Laura Stecher, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Michael Ponater, and Markus Kunze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of strongly increased atmospheric methane mixing ratios on the Earth's climate. An interactive model system including atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and a mixed-layer ocean model is used to analyse the effect of doubled and quintupled methane mixing ratios. We assess feedbacks on atmospheric chemistry and changes in the stratospheric circulation, focusing on the impact of tropospheric warming, and their relevance for the model's climate sensitivity.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Eugene Rozanov, Ales Kuchar, William Ball, Pavle Arsenovic, Ellis Remsberg, Patrick Jöckel, Markus Kunze, David A. Plummer, Andrea Stenke, Daniel Marsh, Doug Kinnison, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 201–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The solar signal in the mesospheric H2O and CO was extracted from the CCMI-1 model simulations and satellite observations using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. MLR analysis shows a pronounced and statistically robust solar signal in both H2O and CO. The model results show a general agreement with observations reproducing a negative/positive solar signal in H2O/CO. The pattern of the solar signal varies among the considered models, reflecting some differences in the model setup.
Tuomas Häkkilä, Pekka T. Verronen, Luis Millán, Monika E. Szeląg, Niilo Kalakoski, and Antti Kero
Ann. Geophys., 38, 1299–1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric impacts of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) can be useful in understanding the uncertainties of measuring the precipitation. Hence, information on how strong of an EPP flux has observable atmospheric impacts is needed. In this study, we find such threshold flux values using odd hydrogen concentrations from both satellite observations and model simulations. We consider the effects of solar proton events and radiation belt electron precipitation in the middle atmosphere.
Jia Jia, Antti Kero, Niilo Kalakoski, Monika E. Szeląg, and Pekka T. Verronen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14969–14982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14969-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14969-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have reported up to a 10 % average decrease of lower stratospheric ozone at 20 km altitude following solar proton events (SPEs). Our study uses 49 events that occurred after the launch of Aura MLS (July 2004–now) and 177 events that occurred in the WACCM-D simulation period (Jan 1989–Dec 2012) to evaluate ozone changes following SPEs. The statistical and case-by-case studies show no solid evidence of SPE's direct impact on the lower stratospheric ozone.
Sabine Haase, Jaika Fricke, Tim Kruschke, Sebastian Wahl, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14043–14061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depletion over Antarctica was shown to influence the tropospheric jet in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the atmospheric response to ozone depletion comparing climate model ensembles with interactive and prescribed ozone fields. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry and model physics as well as including asymmetries in ozone leads to a strengthened ozone depletion signature in the stratosphere but does not significantly affect the tropospheric jet position.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11569–11592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11569-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rossby wave packet (RWP) dynamics are crucial for weather forecasting, climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interactions. Our study is a first attempt to describe RWP behavior in the UTLS with global coverage directly from observations, using GNSS-RO data. Our novel results show an interesting relation of RWP vertical propagation with sudden stratospheric warmings and provide very useful information to improve RWP diagnostics in models and reanalysis.
Francesco Grieco, Kristell Pérot, Donal Murtagh, Patrick Eriksson, Peter Forkman, Bengt Rydberg, Bernd Funke, Kaley A. Walker, and Hugh C. Pumphrey
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 5013–5031, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a unique – by time extension and geographical coverage – dataset of satellite observations of carbon monoxide (CO) in the mesosphere which will allow us to study dynamical processes, since CO is a very good tracer of circulation in the mesosphere. Previously, the dataset was unusable due to instrumental artefacts that affected the measurements. We identify the cause of the artefacts, eliminate them and prove the quality of the results by comparing with other instrument measurements.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
Thomas von Clarmann, Douglas A. Degenstein, Nathaniel J. Livesey, Stefan Bender, Amy Braverman, André Butz, Steven Compernolle, Robert Damadeo, Seth Dueck, Patrick Eriksson, Bernd Funke, Margaret C. Johnson, Yasuko Kasai, Arno Keppens, Anne Kleinert, Natalya A. Kramarova, Alexandra Laeng, Bavo Langerock, Vivienne H. Payne, Alexei Rozanov, Tomohiro O. Sato, Matthias Schneider, Patrick Sheese, Viktoria Sofieva, Gabriele P. Stiller, Christian von Savigny, and Daniel Zawada
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4393–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4393-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Remote sensing of atmospheric state variables typically relies on the inverse solution of the radiative transfer equation. An adequately characterized retrieval provides information on the uncertainties of the estimated state variables as well as on how any constraint or a priori assumption affects the estimate. This paper summarizes related techniques and provides recommendations for unified error reporting.
Julian Krüger, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Karl Bumke, and Katja Matthes
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-32, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the European heat wave occurrences of 2015 and 2018, this study evaluates the influence of cold North Atlantic SST anomalies on European heat waves by using the ERA-5 reanalysis product. Our findings show that widespread cold North Atlantic SST anomalies may be a precursor for a persistent jet stream pattern and are thus important for the onset of high European temperatures.
Niilo Kalakoski, Pekka T. Verronen, Annika Seppälä, Monika E. Szeląg, Antti Kero, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8923–8938, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8923-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8923-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on middle atmosphere chemistry were studied using the WACCM-D chemistry–climate model, including an improved representation of lower ionosphere ion chemistry. This study includes 66 events in the years 1989–2012 and uses a statistical approach to determine the impact of the improved chemistry scheme. The differences shown highlight the importance of ion chemistry in models used to study energetic particle precipitation.
Pekka T. Verronen, Daniel R. Marsh, Monika E. Szeląg, and Niilo Kalakoski
Ann. Geophys., 38, 833–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-833-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is the first to study how the representation of the magnetic-local-time (MLT) dependency of electron precipitation impacts middle-atmospheric-ozone response on monthly timescales. We use a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model with detailed lower-ionospheric chemistry for an advanced representation of atmospheric impacts of electron forcing. We find that the use of daily zonal-mean electron forcing will provide an accurate ozone response in long-term climate simulations.
Monika E. Szeląg, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Doug Degenstein, Chris Roth, Sean Davis, and Lucien Froidevaux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 7035–7047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7035-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7035-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze seasonal dependence of stratospheric ozone trends over 2000–2018. We demonstrate that the mid-latitude upper stratospheric ozone recovery maximizes during local winters and equinoxes. In the tropics, a very strong seasonal dependence of ozone trends is observed at all altitudes. We found hemispheric asymmetry of summertime ozone trend patterns below 35 km. The seasonal dependence of ozone trends and stratospheric temperature trends shows a clear inter-relation of the trend patterns.
Markus Kunze, Tim Kruschke, Ulrike Langematz, Miriam Sinnhuber, Thomas Reddmann, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6991–7019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling the response of the atmosphere and its constituents to 11-year solar variations is subject to a certain uncertainty arising from the solar irradiance data set used in the chemistry–climate model (CCM) and the applied CCM itself.
This study reveals significant influences from both sources on the variations in the solar response in the stratosphere and mesosphere.
However, there are also regions where the random, unexplained part of the variations in the solar response is largest.
Haiyan Li, Robin Pilch Kedzierski, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6541–6561, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6541-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6541-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The QBO westerly phase was reversed by an unexpected easterly jet near 40 hPa and the westerly zonal wind lasted an unusually long time at 20 hPa during winter 2015/16. We find that quasi-stationary Rossby wave W1 and faster Rossby wave W2 propagating from the northern extratropics and a locally generated Rossby wave W3 were important contributors to the easterly jet at 40 hPa. Our results suggest that the unusual zonal wind structure at 20 hPa could be caused by enhanced Kelvin wave activity.
Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, Torge Martin, Tim Brücher, Annika Drews, Dana Ehlert, Klaus Getzlaff, Fritz Krüger, Willi Rath, Markus Scheinert, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Tobias Bayr, Hauke Schmidt, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2533–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced, consisting of a high-top atmosphere, an ocean model, sea-ice and land surface model components. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve small-scale oceanic features, for example, the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi)decadal scales and bridges the gap to coarse-resolution climate models.
Emily M. Gordon, Annika Seppälä, and Johanna Tamminen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6259–6271, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6259-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6259-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Sun constantly emits high-energy charged particles that produce the ozone destroying chemical NOx in the polar atmosphere. NOx is transported to the stratosphere, where the ozone layer is. Satellite observations show that the NOx gases remain in the atmosphere longer than previously reported. This is influenced by the strength of atmospheric large-scale dynamics, suggesting that there are specific times when this type of solar influence on the Antarctic atmosphere becomes more pronounced.
Theodoros E. Sarris, Elsayed R. Talaat, Minna Palmroth, Iannis Dandouras, Errico Armandillo, Guram Kervalishvili, Stephan Buchert, Stylianos Tourgaidis, David M. Malaspina, Allison N. Jaynes, Nikolaos Paschalidis, John Sample, Jasper Halekas, Eelco Doornbos, Vaios Lappas, Therese Moretto Jørgensen, Claudia Stolle, Mark Clilverd, Qian Wu, Ingmar Sandberg, Panagiotis Pirnaris, and Anita Aikio
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 9, 153–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-153-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Daedalus aims to measure the largely unexplored area between Eart's atmosphere and space, the Earth's
ignorosphere. Here, intriguing and complex processes govern the deposition and transport of energy. The aim is to quantify this energy by measuring effects caused by electrodynamic processes in this region. The concept is based on a mother satellite that carries a suite of instruments, along with smaller satellites carrying a subset of instruments that are released into the atmosphere.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 155–174, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-155-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We perform 50-year-long time-slice experiments using the Met Office HadGEM3 global climate model in order to decompose the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 in three distinct components, (a) the rapid adjustment, associated with CO2 radiative effects; (b) a global uniform sea surface temperature warming; and (c) sea surface temperature patterns. This demonstrates a potential for fast and slow timescales of the response of the BDC to greenhouse gas forcing.
Andreas Chrysanthou, Amanda C. Maycock, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sandip Dhomse, Hella Garny, Douglas Kinnison, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Makoto Deushi, Rolando R. Garcia, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Daniele Visioni, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11559–11586, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11559-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We perform the first multi-model comparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation (RC) in chemistry–climate models. Nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of RC compared to free-running simulations, and despite the lack of agreement in the mean circulation, nudging tightly constrains the inter-annual variability in the tropical upward mass flux in the lower stratosphere. In summary, nudging strongly affects the representation of RC.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Braesicke, Paul J. Telford, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9833–9846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9833-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric response to the amplitude of 11-year solar cycle in UM-UKCA is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates, and the results compared with a control case with both effects included. We find that while the tropical responses are largely additive, this is not necessarily the case in the high latitudes. We suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle.
Pavle Arsenovic, Alessandro Damiani, Eugene Rozanov, Bernd Funke, Andrea Stenke, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9485–9494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9485-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Low-energy electrons (LEE) are the dominant source of odd nitrogen, which destroys ozone, in the mesosphere and stratosphere in polar winter in the geomagnetically active periods. However, the observed stratospheric ozone anomalies can be reproduced only when accounting for both low- and middle-range energy electrons (MEE) in the chemistry-climate model. Ozone changes may induce further dynamical and thermal changes in the atmosphere. We recommend including both LEE and MEE in climate models.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Froila M. Palmeiro, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Ulrike Langematz, and Kiyotaka Shibata
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9469–9484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9469-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are abrupt rises in the wintertime polar stratosphere that also affect the troposphere. Their study is hampered by the limited observations in the stratosphere and mostly relies on reanalyses, i.e., models that include observations. Here we compare the representation of SSWs by the most used reanalyses. SSW results are consistent across reanalyses but some differences are found, in particular before the satellite era.
Mark E. Hervig, Benjamin T. Marshall, Scott M. Bailey, David E. Siskind, James M. Russell III, Charles G. Bardeen, Kaley A. Walker, and Bernd Funke
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3111–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3111-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3111-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) has measured nitric oxide (NO) from satellite since 2007. The observations are validated through error analysis and comparisons with other satellite observations. Calculated SOFIE NO uncertainties are less than 50 % for altitudes from 40 to 140 km. SOFIE agrees with other measurements to within 50 % for altitudes from roughly 50 to 105 km for spacecraft sunrise and 50 to 140 km for sunsets.
Ming Shangguan, Wuke Wang, and Shuanggen Jin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6659–6679, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6659-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6659-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A significant warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere are found in satellite measurements (2002–2017). The newest ERA5 data are first used for analyzing temperature and ozone trends in the UTLS and show the best quality compared to other reanalyses. According to model simulations, the temperature increase in the troposphere and ozone decrease in the NH stratosphere are mainly connected to a surface warming of the ocean and subsequent changes in atmospheric circulation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, Paul J. Telford, Peter Braesicke, N. Luke Abraham, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5209–5233, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5209-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Following model improvements, the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing simulated in the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model is discussed for the first time. In contrast to most previous studies in the literature, we compare the results diagnosed using both a composite and a MLR methodology, and we show that apparently different signals can be diagnosed in the troposphere. In addition, we look at the role of internal atmospheric variability for the detection of the solar response.
Tao Yuan, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3769–3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3769-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3769-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Na layer in the upper atmosphere is very sensitive to solar radiation and varies considerably during sunrise and sunset. In this paper, we use the lidar observations and an advanced model to investigate this process. We found that the variation is mostly due to the changes in several photochemical reactions involving Na compounds, especially NaHCO3. We also reveal that the Fe layer in the same region changes more quickly than the Na layer due to a faster reaction rate of FeOH to sunlight.
Sabine Haase and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3417–3432, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3417-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ozone hole influences surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Recent studies have shown that stratospheric ozone depletion in the Arctic can also affect the surface. We evaluate the importance of the direct and indirect representation of ozone variability in a climate model for this surface response. We show that allowing feedbacks between ozone chemistry, radiation, and dynamics enhances and prolongs the surface response to Northern Hemisphere spring ozone depletion.
David A. Newnham, Mark A. Clilverd, Michael Kosch, Annika Seppälä, and Pekka T. Verronen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1375-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A simulation study has been carried out to investigate the potential for observing ozone and hydroxyl radical abundances in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere using ground-based passive microwave radiometry. In the polar middle atmosphere these chemical species respond strongly to geomagnetic activity associated with space weather. The results show that measuring diurnal variations in ozone and hydroxyl from high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and Antarctic locations would be possible.
Stefan Bender, Miriam Sinnhuber, Patrick J. Espy, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2135–2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2135-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present an empirical model for nitric oxide (NO) in the mesosphere (60–90 km) derived from SCIAMACHY limb scan data. Our model relates the daily (longitudinally) averaged NO number densities from SCIAMACHY as a function of geomagnetic latitude to the solar Lyman-alpha and the geomagnetic AE indices. We use a non-linear regression model, incorporating a finite and seasonally varying lifetime for the geomagnetically induced NO.
Tilo Fytterer, Christian von Savigny, Martin Mlynczak, and Miriam Sinnhuber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1835–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1835-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1835-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A model was developed to derive night-time atomic oxygen (O(3P)) and atomic hydrogen (H) from satellite observations in the altitude region between 75 km and 100 km. Comparisons between the
best-fit modeland the measurements suggest that chemical reactions involving O2 and O(3P) might occur differently than is usually assumed in literature. This considerably affects the derived abundances of O(3P) and H, which in turn might influence air temperature and winds of the whole atmosphere.
David E. Siskind, McArthur Jones Jr., Douglas P. Drob, John P. McCormack, Mark E. Hervig, Daniel R. Marsh, Martin G. Mlynczak, Scott M. Bailey, Astrid Maute, and Nicholas J. Mitchell
Ann. Geophys., 37, 37–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-37-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-37-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use data from two NASA satellites and a general circulation model of the upper atmosphere to elucidate the key factors governing the abundance and diurnal variation of nitric oxide (NO) at near-solar minimum conditions and low latitudes. This has been difficult to do previously, because NO data are typically taken from satellites in sun-synchronous orbits, meaning that they only acquire data in fixed local times. We overcome this limitation through model simulations of the NO diurnal cycle.
Tao Li, Chao Ban, Xin Fang, Jing Li, Zhaopeng Wu, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Jiangang Xiong, Daniel R. Marsh, Michael J. Mills, and Xiankang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11683–11695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11683-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 154 nights of observations by the USTC Na temperature and wind lidar (32° N, 117° E) suggest significant seasonal variability in the mesopause. Chemistry plays an important role in Na atom formation. More than half of the observed gravity wave (GW) momentum flux (MF), whose divergence determines the GW forcing, is induced by short-period (10 min–2 h) waves. The anticorrelation between MF and zonal wind (U) suggests strong filtering of short-period GWs by semiannual oscillation U.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11323–11343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11323-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The 11-year solar cycle is an important driver of climate variability. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation affect atmospheric ozone, which in turn influences atmospheric temperatures. Constraining the impact of the solar cycle on ozone is therefore important for understanding climate variability. This study examines the representation of the solar influence on ozone in numerical models used to simulate past and future climate. We highlight important differences among model datasets.
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Steven C. Hardiman, Patrick Jöckel, Andrew Klekociuk, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David A. Plummer, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are natural major disruptions of the polar stratospheric circulation that also affect surface weather. In the literature there are conflicting claims as to whether SSWs will change in the future. The confusion comes from studies using different models and methods. Here we settle the question by analysing 12 models with a consistent methodology, to show that no robust changes in frequency and other features are expected over the 21st century.
Alexandra Laeng, Ellen Eckert, Thomas von Clarmann, Michael Kiefer, Daan Hubert, Gabriele Stiller, Norbert Glatthor, Manuel López-Puertas, Bernd Funke, Udo Grabowski, Johannes Plieninger, Sylvia Kellmann, Andrea Linden, Stefan Lossow, Arne Babenhauserheide, Lucien Froidevaux, and Kaley Walker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 4693–4705, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-4693-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
MIPAS was an IR limb emission spectrometer on the Envisat platform. From 2002 to 2012, it performed pole-to-pole measurements of ozone during day and night. ESA recently released the new version 7 of Level 1 MIPAS spectra, which is expected to reduce the long-term drift of the MIPAS Level 2 data. We evaluate the long-term stability of ozone Level 2 data from the KIT IMK processor. Our results indicate that MIPAS data are now even more suited for trend studies, alone or as part of merged data.
Koen Hendrickx, Linda Megner, Daniel R. Marsh, and Christine Smith-Johnsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9075–9089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9075-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9075-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The mechanisms that produce, destroy and transport nitric oxide (NO) in the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere are investigated in AIM-SOFIE satellite observations and compared to SD-WACCM simulations. During winter, NO concentrations are most similar while the altitude of maximum NO number densities is most separated. Even though the rate of descent is similar in both datasets, the simulated descending NO flux is too low in concentration, which reflects a missing source of NO.
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Stefanie Meul, Ulrike Langematz, Philipp Kröger, Sophie Oberländer-Hayn, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7721–7738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7721-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7721-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Using a chemistry--climate model future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux, their drivers, and the future distribution of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere are investigated. In an extreme greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario, the global influx of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere is projected to grow between 2000 and 2100 by 53%. The increase is due to the recovery of stratospheric ozone owing to declining halogens and GHG induced circulation and temperature changes.
Vered Silverman, Nili Harnik, Katja Matthes, Sandro W. Lubis, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6637–6659, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6637-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a quantified and mechanistic understanding of the radiative effects of ozone waves on the NH stratosphere. In particular, we find these effects to influence the seasonal evolution of the midlatitude QBO signal (Holton–Tan effect), which is important for getting realistic dynamical interactions in climate models. We also provide a synoptic view on the evolution of the seasonal development of the Holton–Tan effect by looking at the life cycle of upward-propagating waves.
Christos Zerefos, John Kapsomenakis, Kostas Eleftheratos, Kleareti Tourpali, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Daan Hubert, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Stacey Frith, Viktoria Sofieva, and Birgit Hassler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6427–6440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6427-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6427-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We point out the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations in the middle/upper stratosphere. We examine the contribution of chemistry and natural proxies to ozone profile trends. Above 10 hPa an “inflection point” between 1997–99 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period of positive ozone change in 1998–2015. Below 15 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become insignificant as we move to 2015.
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Douglas E. Kinnison, Alexandru Rap, Amanda C. Maycock, Oliver Wild, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6121–6139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores future ozone radiative forcing (RF) and the relative contribution due to different drivers. Climate-induced ozone RF is largely the result of the interplay between lightning-produced ozone and enhanced ozone destruction in a warmer and wetter atmosphere. These results demonstrate the importance of stratospheric–tropospheric interactions and the stratosphere as a key region controlling a large fraction of the tropospheric ozone RF.
Manuel López-Puertas, Maya García-Comas, Bernd Funke, Angela Gardini, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Norbert Glatthor, Alexandra Laeng, Martin Kaufmann, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Lucien Froidevaux, Kaley A. Walker, and Masato Shiotani
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2187–2212, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2187-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the inversion of O3 data from MIPAS middle atmosphere spectra which requires non-LTE. The O3 dataset comprises from 20 to 100 km, has a pole-to-pole latitude coverage, day and nighttime, and span from 2005 until 2012. A validation of the data against other satellite measurements and an overall description of O3 is also presented. This is an important dataset for the community and describes the major characteristics of stratospheric and mesospheric O3.
Erkki Kyrölä, Monika E. Andersson, Pekka T. Verronen, Marko Laine, Simo Tukiainen, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5001–5019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5001-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5001-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we compare three key constituents of the middle atmosphere (ozone, NO2, and NO3) from the GOMOS satellite instrument with the WACCM model. We find that in the stratosphere (below 50 km) ozone differences are very small, but in the mesosphere large deviations are found. GOMOS and WACCM NO2 agree reasonably well except in the polar areas. These differences can be connected to the solar particle storms. For NO3, WACCM results agree with GOMOS with a very high correlation.
Stefan Liersch, Julia Tecklenburg, Henning Rust, Andreas Dobler, Madlen Fischer, Tim Kruschke, Hagen Koch, and Fred Fokko Hattermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2163–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Application-oriented regional impact studies require accurate simulations of future climate variables and water availability. We analyse the quality of global and regional climate projections and discuss potentials of correction methods that partly overcome this quality issue. The model ensemble used in this study projects increasing average annual discharges and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.
Neal Butchart, James A. Anstey, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Charles McLandress, Andrew C. Bushell, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Martin Andrews, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Mikhail Dobrynin, Rolando R. Garcia, Javier Garcia-Serrano, Lesley J. Gray, Laura Holt, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Hiroaki Naoe, Holger Pohlmann, Jadwiga H. Richter, Adam A. Scaife, Verena Schenzinger, Federico Serva, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, and Seiji Yukimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the numerical experiments to be used in phase 1 of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi), which was set up to improve the representation of the QBO and tropical stratospheric variability in global climate models.
Antara Banerjee, Amanda C. Maycock, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2899–2911, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the radiative forcing (RF) of future ozone changes. Under climate change, even the sign of the ozone RF can change depending on the greenhouse gas emissions scenario followed. Stratosphere–troposphere exchange plays an important role in driving ozone RF due to reductions in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and increases in methane abundance. These could negate the ozone-derived climate benefits of air-quality controls on non-methane ozone precursor emissions.
Kristian Förster, Florian Hanzer, Elena Stoll, Adam A. Scaife, Craig MacLachlan, Johannes Schöber, Matthias Huttenlau, Stefan Achleitner, and Ulrich Strasser
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1157–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents predictability analyses of snow accumulation for the upcoming winter season. The results achieved using two coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models and a water balance model show that the tendency of snow water equivalent anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in up to 11 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal predictions may be capable of predicting tendencies of hydrological model storages in parts of Europe.
Miriam Sinnhuber, Uwe Berger, Bernd Funke, Holger Nieder, Thomas Reddmann, Gabriele Stiller, Stefan Versick, Thomas von Clarmann, and Jan Maik Wissing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1115–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1115-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Results from global models are used to analyze the impact of energetic particle precipitation on the middle atmosphere (10–80 km). Model results agree well with observations, and show strong enhancements of NOy, long-lasting ozone loss, and a net heating in the uppermost stratosphere (~35–45 km) during polar winter which changes sign in spring. Energetic particle precipitation therefore has the potential to impact atmospheric dynamics, starting from a warmer winter-time upper stratosphere.
Amirmahdi Zarboo, Stefan Bender, John P. Burrows, Johannes Orphal, and Miriam Sinnhuber
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 473–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-473-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-473-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present the retrieved volume emission rates (VERs) from the airglow of both the daytime and twilight O2(1Σ) band and O2(1Δ) band emissions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). We have investigated the daily mean latitudinal distributions and the time series of the retrieved VER in the altitude range from 53 to 149 km. These observations provide information about the chemistry and dynamics and can be used to infer ozone, solar heating rates, and temperature in the MLT.
James Keeble, Ewa M. Bednarz, Antara Banerjee, N. Luke Abraham, Neil R. P. Harris, Amanda C. Maycock, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13801–13818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13801-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we explore the chemical and transport processes controlling ozone abundances in different altitude regions in the tropics for the present day and how these processes may change in the future in order to determine when total-column ozone values in the tropics will recover to pre-1980s values following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments, which imposed bans on the use and emissions of CFCs.
Margarita Yela, Manuel Gil-Ojeda, Mónica Navarro-Comas, David Gonzalez-Bartolomé, Olga Puentedura, Bernd Funke, Javier Iglesias, Santiago Rodríguez, Omaira García, Héctor Ochoa, and Guillermo Deferrari
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13373–13389, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13373-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13373-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on stratospheric trends of NO2, a species involved in the ozone equilibrium, using data from four NDACC stations. The global stratospheric NO2 trend has not yet been established conclusively. We analyse DOAS data from stations in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere during 1993–2014. The most relevant finding is the hemispheric asymmetry found in the sign of the NO2 trend, providing further evidence of changes in the stratosphere dynamics on the global scale.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Gabriele P. Stiller, Federico Fierli, Felix Ploeger, Chiara Cagnazzo, Bernd Funke, Florian J. Haenel, Thomas Reddmann, Martin Riese, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11177–11192, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11177-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11177-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The discrepancy between modelled and observed 25-year trends of the strength of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is still not resolved. With our paper we trace the observed hemispheric dipole structure of age of air trends back to natural variability in shorter-term (decadal) time frames. Beyond this we demonstrate that after correction for the decadal natural variability the remaining trend for the first decade of the 21st century is consistent with model simulations.
Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Alison L. Kay, Anca Brookshaw, and Adam A. Scaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4681–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence.
Martin P. Langowski, Christian von Savigny, John P. Burrows, Didier Fussen, Erin C. M. Dawkins, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, and Daniel R. Marsh
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2989–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2989-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2989-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Meteoric metals form metal layers in the upper atmosphere anandplay a role in the formation of middle-atmospheric clouds and aerosols. However, the total metal influx rate is not well known. Global Na datasets from measurements and a model are available, which had not been compared yet on a global scale until this paper. Overall the agreement is good, and many differences between measurements are also found in the model simulations. However, the modeled layer altitude is too low.
Ellen Eckert, Thomas von Clarmann, Alexandra Laeng, Gabriele P. Stiller, Bernd Funke, Norbert Glatthor, Udo Grabowski, Sylvia Kellmann, Michael Kiefer, Andrea Linden, Arne Babenhauserheide, Gerald Wetzel, Christopher Boone, Andreas Engel, Jeremy J. Harrison, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, and Peter F. Bernath
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2727–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2727-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2727-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We retrieved vertical profiles of CCl4 from MIPAS Envisat IMK/IAA data. A detailed description of all characteristics is included in the paper as well as comparisons with historical measurements and comparisons with collocated measurements of instruments covering the same time span as MIPAS Envisat. A particular focus also lies on the usage of a new CCl4 spectroscopic dataset introduced recently, which leads to more realistic CCl4 volume mixing ratios.
Cristen Adams, Adam E. Bourassa, Chris A. McLinden, Chris E. Sioris, Thomas von Clarmann, Bernd Funke, Landon A. Rieger, and Douglas A. Degenstein
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8063–8080, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8063-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8063-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We measured the relationship between volcanic aerosol and trace gases in the stratosphere using the OSIRIS and MIPAS satellite instruments between 2002 and 2014. We found that levels of stratospheric NO2 and N2O5 both decreased significantly in the presence of volcanic aerosol. These decreases were consistent with the modeling results.
Alison Ming, Amanda C. Maycock, Peter Hitchcock, and Peter Haynes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5677–5701, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5677-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work quantifies the contribution of the seasonal changes in ozone and water vapour to the temperature cycle in a region of the atmosphere about ~ 18 km up in the tropics (the lower stratosphere). This region is important because most of the air entering the stratosphere does so through this region and temperature fluctuations there influence how much water vapour enters the stratosphere and hence the properties of the stratosphere.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4093–4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4093-2017, 2017
Bernd Funke, William Ball, Stefan Bender, Angela Gardini, V. Lynn Harvey, Alyn Lambert, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, Katharina Meraner, Holger Nieder, Sanna-Mari Päivärinta, Kristell Pérot, Cora E. Randall, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Hauke Schmidt, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriele P. Stiller, Natalia D. Tsvetkova, Pekka T. Verronen, Stefan Versick, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, and Vladimir Yushkov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3573–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations from eight atmospheric models have been compared to tracer and temperature observations from seven satellite instruments in order to evaluate the energetic particle indirect effect (EPP IE) during the perturbed northern hemispheric (NH) winter 2008/2009. Models are capable to reproduce the EPP IE in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The results emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events.
Grant M. Raisbeck, Alexandre Cauquoin, Jean Jouzel, Amaelle Landais, Jean-Robert Petit, Vladimir Y. Lipenkov, Juerg Beer, Hans-Arno Synal, Hans Oerter, Sigfus J. Johnsen, Jorgen P. Steffensen, Anders Svensson, and Françoise Yiou
Clim. Past, 13, 217–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-217-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-217-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Using records of a long-lived radioactive nuclide (10Be) that is formed globally in the atmosphere and deposited within a few years to the earth’s surface, we have synchronized three Antarctic ice cores to one from Greenland. This permits the climate and other environmental parameters registered in these ice cores to be put on a common timescale with a precision of a few decades, thus allowing different models and mechanisms associated with these parameters to be tested with the same precision.
Sandro W. Lubis, Vered Silverman, Katja Matthes, Nili Harnik, Nour-Eddine Omrani, and Sebastian Wahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2437–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2437-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Downward wave coupling (DWC) events impact high-latitude stratospheric ozone in two ways: (1) reduced dynamical transport of ozone from low to high latitudes during individual events and (2) enhanced springtime chemical destruction of ozone via the cumulative impact of DWC events on polar stratospheric temperatures. The results presented here broaden the scope of the impact of wave–mean flow interaction on stratospheric ozone by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Tamás Kovács, Wuhu Feng, Anna Totterdill, John M. C. Plane, Sandip Dhomse, Juan Carlos Gómez-Martín, Gabriele P. Stiller, Florian J. Haenel, Christopher Smith, Piers M. Forster, Rolando R. García, Daniel R. Marsh, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 883–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a very potent greenhouse gas, which is present in the atmosphere only through its industrial use, for example as an electrical insulator. To estimate accurately the impact of SF6 emissions on climate we need to know how long it persists in the atmosphere before being removed. Previous estimates of the SF6 lifetime indicate a large degree of uncertainty. Here we use a detailed atmospheric model to calculate a current best estimate of the SF6 lifetime.
Stefan Bender, Miriam Sinnhuber, Martin Langowski, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 209–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-209-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the retrieval of NO number densities from 60 km to 85 km from measurements of SCIAMACHY/Envisat in its nominal limb mode (0–91 km). We derive the densities from the NO gamma bands (230–300 nm). Using prior input reduces the incorrect attribution of NO from the lower thermosphere. The SCIAMACHY nominal limb scans provide almost 10 years of daily NO data in this altitude range, a unique data record to constrain NO in the mesosphere for testing and validating chemistry climate models.
Á. Aythami Jurado-Navarro, Manuel López-Puertas, Bernd Funke, Maya García-Comas, Angela Gardini, Francisco González-Galindo, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Udo Grabowski, and Andrea Linden
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 6081–6100, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-6081-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-6081-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present global distributions of CO2 concentrations in the upper atmosphere (70–140 km) derived from high-resolution 4.3 µm MIPAS spectra from 2005 to 2012. CO2 relative abundances have been measured at 120–140 km for the first time. The data have an unprecedented accuracy. CO2 shows a strong seasonal behaviour. CO2 largely controls the temperature of the upper atmosphere and its measurement is very important for understanding the impact of climate change in this region.
Ulrike Langematz, Franziska Schmidt, Markus Kunze, Gregory E. Bodeker, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15619–15627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15619-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The extent of anthropogenically driven Antarctic ozone depletion prior to 1980 is examined using transient chemistry–climate model simulations from 1960 to 2000 with prescribed changes of ozone depleting substances in conjunction with observations. All models show a long-term, halogen-induced negative trend in Antarctic ozone from 1960 to 1980, ranging between 26 and 50 % of the total anthropogenic ozone depletion from 1960 to 2000. A stronger ozone decline of 56 % was estimated from observation.
Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, Chris A. McLinden, Peter F. Bernath, Adam E. Bourassa, John P. Burrows, Doug A. Degenstein, Bernd Funke, Didier Fussen, Gloria L. Manney, C. Thomas McElroy, Donal Murtagh, Cora E. Randall, Piera Raspollini, Alexei Rozanov, James M. Russell III, Makoto Suzuki, Masato Shiotani, Joachim Urban, Thomas von Clarmann, and Joseph M. Zawodny
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5781–5810, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5781-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5781-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study validates version 3.5 of the ACE-FTS NOy species data sets by comparing diurnally scaled ACE-FTS data to correlative data from 11 other satellite limb sounders. For all five species examined (NO, NO2, HNO3, N2O5, and ClONO2), there is good agreement between ACE-FTS and the other data sets in various regions of the atmosphere. In these validated regions, these NOy data products can be used for further investigation into the composition, dynamics, and climate of the stratosphere.
Tobias Pardowitz, Robert Osinski, Tim Kruschke, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2391–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an approach to derive probabilistic predictions of local winter storm damage occurrences. Such predictions are subject to large uncertainty due to meteorological forecast uncertainty and uncertainties in modelling weather impacts. The paper aims to quantify these uncertainties and demonstrate that valuable predictions can be made on the district level several days ahead.
Kunihiko Kodera, Rémi Thiéblemont, Seiji Yukimoto, and Katja Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12925–12944, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12925-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The spatial structure of the solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface is analysed to identify the mechanisms. Both tropical and extratropical solar surface signals can result from circulation changes in the upper stratosphere through (i) a downward migration of wave zonal mean flow interactions and (ii) changes in the stratospheric mean meridional circulation. Amplification of the solar signal also occurs through interaction with the ocean.
Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Detection and attribution of climate change is the process of determining the causes of observed climate changes, which has underpinned key conclusions on the role of human influence on climate in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper describes a coordinated set of climate model experiments that will form part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and will support improved attribution of climate change in the next IPCC report.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Amanda C. Maycock, N. Luke Abraham, Peter Braesicke, Olivier Dessens, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12159–12176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Future trends in springtime Arctic ozone, and its chemical dynamical and radiative drivers, are analysed using a 7-member ensemble of chemistry–climate model integrations, allowing for a detailed assessment of interannual variability. Despite the future long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, there is large interannual variability and episodic reductions in springtime Arctic column ozone. Halogen chemistry will become a smaller but non-negligible driver of Arctic ozone variability over the century.
Robin Pilch Kedzierski, Katja Matthes, and Karl Bumke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11617–11633, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11617-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11617-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a detailed overview of the daily variability of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the tropics, where TIL research had focused little. The vertical and horizontal structures of this atmospheric layer are described and linked to near-tropopause horizontal wind divergence, the QBO and especially to equatorial waves. Our results increase the knowledge about the observed properties of the tropical TIL, mainly using satellite GPS radio-occultation measurements.
Tamás Kovács, John M. C. Plane, Wuhu Feng, Tibor Nagy, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Pekka T. Verronen, Monika E. Andersson, David A. Newnham, Mark A. Clilverd, and Daniel R. Marsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3123–3136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3123-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3123-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study was completed on D-region atmospheric model development. The sophisticated 3-D Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the 1-D Sodynkalä Ion and Neutral Chemistry Model (SIC) were combined in order to provide a detailed, accurate model (WACCM-SIC) that considers the processes taking place in solar proton events. The original SIC model was reduced by mechanism reduction, which provided an accurate sub-mechanism (rSIC, WACCM-rSIC) of the original model.
Maya García-Comas, Francisco González-Galindo, Bernd Funke, Angela Gardini, Aythami Jurado-Navarro, Manuel López-Puertas, and William E. Ward
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11019–11041, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11019-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11019-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, for the first time, temperature longitudinal oscillations are derived from 20 to 150 km from a single instrument. A climatology of amplitudes and phases of zonal waves with odd daily frequencies is presented on a global scale. The interannual variability in amplitudes of the migrating modes shows a QBO in the MLT, which is probably originated in the stratosphere. The results are useful for testing general circulation models considering tidal effects in the MLT region.
Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Rémi Thiéblemont, and Lon Hood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10021–10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of changes in incoming solar radiation on stratospheric ozone has important impacts on the atmosphere. Understanding this ozone response is crucial for constraining how solar activity affects climate. This study analyses the solar ozone response (SOR) in satellite datasets and shows that there are substantial differences in the magnitude and spatial structure across different records. In particular, the SOR in the new SAGE v7.0 mixing ratio data is smaller than in the previous v6.2.
E. Eckert, A. Laeng, S. Lossow, S. Kellmann, G. Stiller, T. von Clarmann, N. Glatthor, M. Höpfner, M. Kiefer, H. Oelhaf, J. Orphal, B. Funke, U. Grabowski, F. Haenel, A. Linden, G. Wetzel, W. Woiwode, P. F. Bernath, C. Boone, G. S. Dutton, J. W. Elkins, A. Engel, J. C. Gille, F. Kolonjari, T. Sugita, G. C. Toon, and K. A. Walker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3355–3389, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3355-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3355-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the accuracy, precision and long-term stability of the MIPAS Envisat IMK/IAA CFC-11 (CCl3F) and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) products.
For comparisons we use several data products from satellite, airplane and balloon-borne instruments as well as ground-based data.
MIPAS Envisat CFC-11 has a slight high bias at the lower end of the profile.
CFC-12 agrees well with other data products.
The temporal stability is good up to ~ 30 km, but still leaves room for improvement.
Ming Shangguan, Katja Matthes, Wuke Wang, and Tae-Kwon Wee
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2016-248, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
A first validation of the COSMIC Radio Occultation (RO) water vapor data in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are presented in this paper. The COSMIC water vapor shows a good agreement with the Microwave limb Sounder (MLS) in both the spatial distribution and the seasonal to interannual variations. It is very valuable for studying the water vapor in the UTLS, thanks to its global coverage, all- weather aptitude and high vertical resolution.
Markus Kunze, Peter Braesicke, Ulrike Langematz, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8695–8714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8695-2016, 2016
Bernd Funke, Manuel López-Puertas, Gabriele P. Stiller, Stefan Versick, and Thomas von Clarmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8667–8693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8667-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8667-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a semi-empirical model for the reconstruction of polar winter descent of reactive nitrogen (NOy) produced by energetic particle precipitation (EPP) into the stratosphere. It can be used to prescribe NOy in chemistry climate models with an upper lid below the EPP source region. We also found a significant reduction of the EPP-generated NOy during the last 30 years, likely affecting the long-term NOy trend by counteracting the expected increase caused by growing N2O emission.
Khalil Karami, Peter Braesicke, Miriam Sinnhuber, and Stefan Versick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8447–8460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8447-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8447-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a diagnostic tool to assess in a climatological framework the optimal propagation conditions for stationary planetary waves. Analyzing 50 winters using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data we demonstrate several problematic features of the refractive index of Rossby waves. We introduced the Rossby waves membership value function to calculate the optimal propagation conditions for Rossby waves. Sensitivity of our diagnostic tool to strong and weak vortex regimes are examined.
Simone Dietmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Markus Kunze, Catrin Gellhorn, Sabine Brinkop, Christine Frömming, Michael Ponater, Benedikt Steil, Axel Lauer, and Johannes Hendricks
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2209–2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Four new radiation related submodels (RAD, AEROPT, CLOUDOPT, and ORBIT) are available within the MESSy framework now. They are largely based on the original radiation scheme of ECHAM5. RAD simulates radiative transfer, AEROPT calculates aerosol optical properties, CLOUDOPT calculates cloud optical properties, and ORBIT is responsible for Earth orbit calculations. Multiple diagnostic calls of the radiation routine are possible, so radiative forcing can be calculated during the model simulation.
Maya García-Comas, Manuel López-Puertas, Bernd Funke, Á. Aythami Jurado-Navarro, Angela Gardini, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, and Michael Höpfner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6701–6719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have analysed IR measurements of PMCs in the NH and SH from 2005 to 2012. This technique is sensitive to the total ice volume independent of particle size. For the first time, we have measured the total ice volume from the midlatitudes to the poles. The data indicate a layer of ice from 81 to 89 km and from the poles to 50–60º in each hemisphere, increasing near the poles. The ice density is larger in the NH than in the SH and located 1 km lower. PMCs also show a diurnal variation.
Simone Tilmes, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Louisa K. Emmons, Doug E. Kinnison, Dan Marsh, Rolando R. Garcia, Anne K. Smith, Ryan R. Neely, Andrew Conley, Francis Vitt, Maria Val Martin, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Isobel Simpson, Don R. Blake, and Nicola Blake
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1853–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The state of the art Community Earth System Model, CESM1 CAM4-chem has been used to perform reference and sensitivity simulations as part of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifics of the model and details regarding the setup of the simulations are described. In additions, the main behavior of the model, including selected chemical species have been evaluated with climatological datasets. This paper is therefore a references for studies that use the provided model results.
Charles H. Jackman, Daniel R. Marsh, Douglas E. Kinnison, Christopher J. Mertens, and Eric L. Fleming
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5853–5866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Two global models were used to investigate the impact of galactic cosmic ray (GCRs) on the atmosphere over the 1960-2010 time period. The primary impact of the naturally occurring GCRs on ozone was found to be due to their production of NOx and this impact varies with the atmospheric chlorine loading, sulfate aerosol loading, and solar cycle variation. GCR-caused decreases of annual average global total ozone were computed to be 0.2 % or less.
K. Kauristie, M. V. Uspensky, N. G. Kleimenova, O. V. Kozyreva, M. M. J. L. Van De Kamp, S. V. Dubyagin, and S. Massetti
Ann. Geophys., 34, 379–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-379-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-379-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents some example events in which sudden changes in the auroral activity at midnight sector seem to have an impact on the intensity of morning-sector magnetic pulsations. Mechanisms which could link these two separate regions are discussed in the paper. Sudden changes in the solar wind properties and fast westward-propagating electrons are suggested to explain the coupling between midnight-sector and morning-sector phenomena.
Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Andrea Pozzer, Markus Kunze, Oliver Kirner, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, Sabine Brinkop, Duy S. Cai, Christoph Dyroff, Johannes Eckstein, Franziska Frank, Hella Garny, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Astrid Kerkweg, Bastian Kern, Sigrun Matthes, Mariano Mertens, Stefanie Meul, Marco Neumaier, Matthias Nützel, Sophie Oberländer-Hayn, Roland Ruhnke, Theresa Runde, Rolf Sander, Dieter Scharffe, and Andreas Zahn
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1153–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
With an advanced numerical global chemistry climate model (CCM) we performed several detailed
combined hind-cast and projection simulations of the period 1950 to 2100 to assess the
past, present, and potential future dynamical and chemical state of the Earth atmosphere.
The manuscript documents the model and the various applied model set-ups and provides
a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective as a quality check of the data.
Antara Banerjee, Amanda C. Maycock, Alexander T. Archibald, N. Luke Abraham, Paul Telford, Peter Braesicke, and John A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2727–2746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2727-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2727-2016, 2016
Ilias Fountoulakis, Alkiviadis F. Bais, Konstantinos Fragkos, Charickleia Meleti, Kleareti Tourpali, and Melina Maria Zempila
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2493–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2493-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Short- and long-term variability of spectral UV irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece, is discussed in association with changes in total ozone column, aerosols and cloudiness. The UV data set from two Brewer spectrophotometers is used for the analysis. For the entire period 1994–2014, positive, statistically significant increases of UV irradiance were found, mainly attributable to changes in aerosols. UV irradiance is mainly increased from 1994 to 2006 and remains relatively stable thereafter.
S. Tegtmeier, M. I. Hegglin, J. Anderson, B. Funke, J. Gille, A. Jones, L. Smith, T. von Clarmann, and K. A. Walker
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 61–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-61-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-61-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The first comprehensive intercomparison of CFC-11, CFC-12, HF, and SF6 satellite data was performed as part of the SPARC Data Initiative following a new "top-down" concept of satellite measurement validation and thus providing a global picture of the data characteristics. The comparisons will provide basic information on quality and consistency of the various data sets and will serve as a guide for their use in empirical studies of climate and variability, and in model-measurement comparisons.
M. P. Langowski, C. von Savigny, J. P. Burrows, V. V. Rozanov, T. Dunker, U.-P. Hoppe, M. Sinnhuber, and A. C. Aikin
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 295–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-295-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-295-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An algorithm has been developed for the retrieval of sodium atom (Na) number density on a latitude and altitude grid from SCIAMACHY limb measurements of the Na resonance fluorescence (multiannual means 2008–2012). The Na layer peaks at 90 to 93 km altitude and has a FWHM of 5 to 15 km. A summer minimum in peak density and width is observed at high latitudes. At low latitudes, a semiannual oscillation is found. The results are compared with other measurements and models and agree well with these.
F. J. Haenel, G. P. Stiller, T. von Clarmann, B. Funke, E. Eckert, N. Glatthor, U. Grabowski, S. Kellmann, M. Kiefer, A. Linden, and T. Reddmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13161–13176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13161-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13161-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric circulation is thought to change as a consequence of climate change. Empirical evidence, however, is sparse. In this paper we present latitude- and altitude-resolved trends of the mean age of stratospheric air as derived from SF6 measurements performed by the MIPAS satellite instrument. The mean of the age of stratospheric air is a measure of the intensity of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In this paper we discuss differences with respect to a preceding analysis by Stiller et al.
K. Karami, P. Braesicke, M. Kunze, U. Langematz, M. Sinnhuber, and S. Versick
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33283-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-33283-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
S. Bender, M. Sinnhuber, T. von Clarmann, G. Stiller, B. Funke, M. López-Puertas, J. Urban, K. Pérot, K. A. Walker, and J. P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 4171–4195, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-4171-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-4171-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the nitric oxide (NO) daily zonal mean number density data sets in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT, 60km to 150km) from four instruments: ACE-FTS (2004--2010), MIPAS (2005--2012), SCIAMACHY (2008--2012), and SMR (2003--2012). We find that these data sets from different instruments consistently constrain NO in the MLT. Thus, they offer reliable forcing inputs for climate and chemistry climate models as an initial step to include solar and geomagnetic activity.
N. R. P. Harris, B. Hassler, F. Tummon, G. E. Bodeker, D. Hubert, I. Petropavlovskikh, W. Steinbrecht, J. Anderson, P. K. Bhartia, C. D. Boone, A. Bourassa, S. M. Davis, D. Degenstein, A. Delcloo, S. M. Frith, L. Froidevaux, S. Godin-Beekmann, N. Jones, M. J. Kurylo, E. Kyrölä, M. Laine, S. T. Leblanc, J.-C. Lambert, B. Liley, E. Mahieu, A. Maycock, M. de Mazière, A. Parrish, R. Querel, K. H. Rosenlof, C. Roth, C. Sioris, J. Staehelin, R. S. Stolarski, R. Stübi, J. Tamminen, C. Vigouroux, K. A. Walker, H. J. Wang, J. Wild, and J. M. Zawodny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9965–9982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9965-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9965-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported for new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere peaked in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the trends before and after that peak to see if any change in trend is discernible. The previously reported decreases are confirmed. Furthermore, the downward trend in upper stratospheric ozone has not continued. The possible significance of any increase is discussed in detail.
C. McLandress, T. G. Shepherd, A. I. Jonsson, T. von Clarmann, and B. Funke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9271–9284, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9271-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9271-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first paper of its kind describing a method for merging the long-term satellite records of global stratospheric temperature from SSU and AMSU to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present (and beyond). Since global-mean stratospheric temperature is close to radiative equilibrium, our "extended" SSU data set is an important climate record for the detection and attribution of anthropogenic influence.
M. Höpfner, C. D. Boone, B. Funke, N. Glatthor, U. Grabowski, A. Günther, S. Kellmann, M. Kiefer, A. Linden, S. Lossow, H. C. Pumphrey, W. G. Read, A. Roiger, G. Stiller, H. Schlager, T. von Clarmann, and K. Wissmüller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7017–7037, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7017-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7017-2015, 2015
S. Meul, S. Oberländer-Hayn, J. Abalichin, and U. Langematz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6897–6911, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6897-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6897-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The attribution of stratospheric ozone (O3) loss in the recent past to increasing ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) is important to verify the success of the Montreal Protocol. So far, nonlinearity in the O3 response to ODS and GHG changes has been mostly neglected. In this study we explicitly account for nonlinear O3 changes and aim to clarify their relevance in the past. We show that both O3 chemistry and transport are significantly affected by nonlinearity.
W. Wang, K. Matthes, and T. Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5815–5826, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5815-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5815-2015, 2015
T. Fytterer, M. G. Mlynczak, H. Nieder, K. Pérot, M. Sinnhuber, G. Stiller, and J. Urban
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3327–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3327-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Energetic particles from the sun produce NOx (=N+NO+NO2) in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere. The NOx can be transported downward in the stratosphere during polar winter where NOx eventually depletes O3. This entire chain is the so-called energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect.
Here we show downward propagating negative stratospheric O3 anomalies during Antarctic polar winter. The O3 anomalies are caused by geomagnetic activity and show strong hints of the EPP indirect effect.
P. T. Verronen, M. E. Andersson, A. Kero, C.-F. Enell, J. M. Wissing, E. R. Talaat, K. Kauristie, M. Palmroth, T. E. Sarris, and E. Armandillo
Ann. Geophys., 33, 381–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-381-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-381-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Electron concentrations observed by EISCAT radars can be reasonable well represented using AIMOS v1.2 satellite-data-based ionization model and SIC D-region ion chemistry model. SIC-EISCAT difference varies from event to event, probably because the statistical nature of AIMOS ionization is not capturing all the spatio-temporal fine structure of electron precipitation. Below 90km, AIMOS overestimates electron ionization because of proton contamination of the satellite electron detectors.
N. Glatthor, M. Höpfner, G. P. Stiller, T. von Clarmann, B. Funke, S. Lossow, E. Eckert, U. Grabowski, S. Kellmann, A. Linden, K. A. Walker, and A. Wiegele
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 563–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-563-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-563-2015, 2015
M. Shangguan, S. Heise, M. Bender, G. Dick, M. Ramatschi, and J. Wickert
Ann. Geophys., 33, 55–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-55-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-55-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present validation results covering 184 days of SIWV (slant-integrated water vapor) observed by a ground-based GPS receiver and a WVR (water vapor radiometer). SIWV data from GPS and WVR generally show good agreement, and the relation between their differences and possible influential factors are analyzed. The differences in SIWV show a relative elevation dependence. Besides the elevation, dependencies between the atmospheric humidity conditions, temperature and differences in SIWV are found.
M. P. Langowski, C. von Savigny, J. P. Burrows, W. Feng, J. M. C. Plane, D. R. Marsh, D. Janches, M. Sinnhuber, A. C. Aikin, and P. Liebing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 273–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-273-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Global concentration fields of Mg and Mg+ in the Earth's upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (70-150km) are presented. These are retrieved from SCIAMACHY/Envisat satellite grating spectrometer measurements in limb viewing geometry between 2008 and 2012.
These were compared with WACCM-Mg model results and a large fraction of the available measurement results for these species, and an interpretation of the results is done. The variation of these species during NLC presence is discussed.
M. García-Comas, B. Funke, A. Gardini, M. López-Puertas, A. Jurado-Navarro, T. von Clarmann, G. Stiller, M. Kiefer, C. D. Boone, T. Leblanc, B. T. Marshall, M. J. Schwartz, and P. E. Sheese
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3633–3651, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3633-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3633-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
We present the new vM21 MIPAS temperatures from 20 to 102km for all of its 2005-2012 MA, UA and NLC measurements. The main upgrades are the update of ESA L1b spectra, spectroscopic database and O and CO2 climatologies, and improvement in Tk-gradient and offset regularizations and apodization accuracy. The vM21 Tk's correct the main systematic errors of previous versions and lead to remarkable improvement in their comparisons with ACE-FTS, MLS, OSIRIS, SABER and SOFIE and the MLO and TMF lidars.
S. Muthers, J. G. Anet, A. Stenke, C. C. Raible, E. Rozanov, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter, F. X. Arfeuille, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2157–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2157-2014, 2014
A. Banerjee, A. T. Archibald, A. C. Maycock, P. Telford, N. L. Abraham, X. Yang, P. Braesicke, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9871–9881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9871-2014, 2014
C. S. Zerefos, K. Tourpali, P. Zanis, K. Eleftheratos, C. Repapis, A. Goodman, D. Wuebbles, I. S. A. Isaksen, and J. Luterbacher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7705–7720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7705-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7705-2014, 2014
M. Sinnhuber, B. Funke, T. von Clarmann, M. Lopez-Puertas, G. P. Stiller, and A. Seppälä
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7681–7692, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7681-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7681-2014, 2014
G. Chiodo, D. R. Marsh, R. Garcia-Herrera, N. Calvo, and J. A. García
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5251–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5251-2014, 2014
A. C. Kren, D. R. Marsh, A. K. Smith, and P. Pilewskie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4843–4856, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4843-2014, 2014
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. V. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, W. Schmutz, and T. Peter
Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014
F. Friederich, M. Sinnhuber, B. Funke, T. von Clarmann, and J. Orphal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4055–4064, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4055-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4055-2014, 2014
M. Lockwood, H. Nevanlinna, M. Vokhmyanin, D. Ponyavin, S. Sokolov, L. Barnard, M. J. Owens, R. G. Harrison, A. P. Rouillard, and C. J. Scott
Ann. Geophys., 32, 367–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-367-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-367-2014, 2014
M. Lockwood, H. Nevanlinna, L. Barnard, M. J. Owens, R. G. Harrison, A. P. Rouillard, and C. J. Scott
Ann. Geophys., 32, 383–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-383-2014, 2014
S. Meul, U. Langematz, S. Oberländer, H. Garny, and P. Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2959–2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2959-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2959-2014, 2014
M. E. Andersson, P. T. Verronen, C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd, and S. Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1095–1105, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1095-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1095-2014, 2014
C. H. Jackman, C. E. Randall, V. L. Harvey, S. Wang, E. L. Fleming, M. López-Puertas, B. Funke, and P. F. Bernath
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1025–1038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1025-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1025-2014, 2014
M. Langowski, M. Sinnhuber, A. C. Aikin, C. von Savigny, and J. P. Burrows
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 29–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-29-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-29-2014, 2014
M. Lockwood, L. Barnard, H. Nevanlinna, M. J. Owens, R. G. Harrison, A. P. Rouillard, and C. J. Davis
Ann. Geophys., 31, 1957–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1957-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1957-2013, 2013
M. Lockwood, L. Barnard, H. Nevanlinna, M. J. Owens, R. G. Harrison, A. P. Rouillard, and C. J. Davis
Ann. Geophys., 31, 1979–1992, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1979-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1979-2013, 2013
J. G. Anet, S. Muthers, E. Rozanov, C. C. Raible, T. Peter, A. Stenke, A. I. Shapiro, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, S. Brönnimann, F. Arfeuille, Y. Brugnara, and W. Schmutz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013
M. Höpfner, N. Glatthor, U. Grabowski, S. Kellmann, M. Kiefer, A. Linden, J. Orphal, G. Stiller, T. von Clarmann, B. Funke, and C. D. Boone
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10405–10423, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10405-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10405-2013, 2013
S. Bender, M. Sinnhuber, J. P. Burrows, M. Langowski, B. Funke, and M. López-Puertas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2521–2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2521-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2521-2013, 2013
M. Shangguan, M. Bender, M. Ramatschi, G. Dick, J. Wickert, A. Raabe, and R. Galas
Ann. Geophys., 31, 1491–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1491-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1491-2013, 2013
I. A. Mironova and I. G. Usoskin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8543–8550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8543-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8543-2013, 2013
P. T. Verronen and R. Lehmann
Ann. Geophys., 31, 909–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-909-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-909-2013, 2013
I. Ermolli, K. Matthes, T. Dudok de Wit, N. A. Krivova, K. Tourpali, M. Weber, Y. C. Unruh, L. Gray, U. Langematz, P. Pilewskie, E. Rozanov, W. Schmutz, A. Shapiro, S. K. Solanki, and T. N. Woods
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013
F. Friederich, T. von Clarmann, B. Funke, H. Nieder, J. Orphal, M. Sinnhuber, G. P. Stiller, and J. M. Wissing
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2531–2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2531-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2531-2013, 2013
S. Kellmann, T. von Clarmann, G. P. Stiller, E. Eckert, N. Glatthor, M. Höpfner, M. Kiefer, J. Orphal, B. Funke, U. Grabowski, A. Linden, G. S. Dutton, and J. W. Elkins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11857–11875, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11857-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11857-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
Reducing time and computing costs in EC-Earth: an automatic load-balancing approach for coupled Earth system models
FLAME 1.0: a novel approach for modelling burned area in the Brazilian biomes using the maximum entropy concept
SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios
NMH-CS 3.0: a C# programming language and Windows-system-based ecohydrological model derived from Noah-MP
A method for quantifying uncertainty in spatially interpolated meteorological data with application to daily maximum air temperature
Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling
PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data
The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
ZEMBA v1.0: an energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2
TemDeep: a self-supervised framework for temporal downscaling of atmospheric fields at arbitrary time resolutions
The ensemble consistency test: from CESM to MPAS and beyond
Presentation, calibration and testing of the DCESS II Earth system model of intermediate complexity (version 1.0)
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0
Historical trends and controlling factors of isoprene emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data
From weather data to river runoff: using spatiotemporal convolutional networks for discharge forecasting
A Fortran–Python interface for integrating machine learning parameterization into earth system models
ROCKE-3D 2.0: An updated general circulation model for simulating the climates of rocky planets
A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales
WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions
Modeling commercial-scale CO2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
DiuSST: a conceptual model of diurnal warm layers for idealized atmospheric simulations with interactive sea surface temperature
High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
T&C-CROP: representing mechanistic crop growth with a terrestrial biosphere model (T&C, v1.5) – model formulation and validation
An updated non-intrusive, multi-scale, and flexible coupling interface in WRF 4.6.0
Monitoring and benchmarking Earth system model simulations with ESMValTool v2.12.0
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK 0.14.0.11): a Python library for research and teaching
CropSuite v1.0 – a comprehensive open-source crop suitability model considering climate variability for climate impact assessment
ICON ComIn – the ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models
A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models
The real challenges for climate and weather modelling on its way to sustained exascale performance: a case study using ICON (v2.6.6)
COSP-RTTOV-1.0: Flexible radiation diagnostics to enable new science applications in model evaluation, climate change detection, and satellite mission design
Impact of spatial resolution on CMIP6-driven Mediterranean climate simulations: a focus on precipitation distribution over Italy
Improving the representation of major Indian crops in the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5) using site-scale crop data
Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2
Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
Amending the algorithm of aerosol–radiation interactions in WRF-Chem (v4.4)
The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator (ISO_simulator)
Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach
Advanced climate model evaluation with ESMValTool v2.11.0 using parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing
Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4
Features of mid- and high-latitude low-level clouds and their relation to strong aerosol effects in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2)
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
Sergi Palomas, Mario C. Acosta, Gladys Utrera, and Etienne Tourigny
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3661–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3661-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present an automatic tool that optimizes resource distribution in coupled climate models, enhancing speed and reducing computational costs without requiring expert knowledge. Users can set energy/time criteria or limit resource usage. Tested on various European Community Earth System Model (EC-Earth) configurations and high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, it achieved up to 34 % faster simulations with fewer resources.
Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Igor J. M. Ferreira, Renata Moura da Veiga, Anna Bradley, Paulo Guilherme Molin, and Liana O. Anderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As fire seasons in Brazil become increasingly severe, confidently understanding the factors driving fires is more critical than ever. To address this challenge, we developed FLAME (Fire Landscape Analysis using Maximum Entropy), a new model designed to predict fires and to analyse the spatial influence of both environmental and human factors while accounting for uncertainties. By adapting the model to different regions, we can enhance fire management strategies, making FLAME a powerful tool for protecting landscapes in Brazil and beyond.
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3081–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Yong-He Liu and Zong-Liang Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3157–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3157-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
NMH-CS 3.0 is a C#-based ecohydrological model reconstructed from the WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP model by translating the Fortran code of WRF-Hydro 3.0 and integrating a parallel river routing module. It enables efficient execution on multi-core personal computers. Simulations in the Yellow River basin demonstrate its consistency with WRF-Hydro outputs, providing a reliable alternative to the original Noah-MP model.
Conor T. Doherty, Weile Wang, Hirofumi Hashimoto, and Ian G. Brosnan
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3003–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3003-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present, analyze, and validate a methodology for quantifying uncertainty in gridded meteorological data products produced by spatial interpolation. In a validation case study using daily maximum near-surface air temperature (Tmax), the method works well and produces predictive distributions with closely matching theoretical versus actual coverage levels. Application of the method reveals that the magnitude of uncertainty in interpolated Tmax varies significantly in both space and time.
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used variables from Earth system models based on an assessment of data publication and download records from the largest archive of global climate projects.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
PaleoSTeHM v1.0 is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo-records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a novel deep learning approach called "TemDeep" for downscaling atmospheric variables at arbitrary time resolutions based on temporal coherence. Results show that our method can accurately recover evolution details superior to other methods, reaching 53.7 % in the restoration rate. Our findings are important for advancing weather forecasting models and enabling more precise and reliable predictions to support disaster preparedness, agriculture, and sustainable development.
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ensemble consistency test (ECT) and its ultrafast variant (UF-ECT) have become powerful tools in the development community for the identification of unwanted changes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We develop a generalized setup framework to enable easy adoption of the ECT approach for other model developers and communities. This framework specifies test parameters to accurately characterize model variability and balance test sensitivity and computational cost.
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe, calibrate and test the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) II model, a new, broad, adaptable and fast Earth system model. DCESS II is designed for global simulations over timescales of years to millions of years using limited computer resources like a personal computer. With its flexibility and comprehensive treatment of the global carbon cycle, DCESS II is a useful, computationally friendly tool for simulations of past climates as well as for future Earth system projections.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Kostas Tsigaridis, Andrew S. Ackerman, Igor Aleinov, Mark A. Chandler, Thomas L. Clune, Christopher M. Colose, Anthony D. Del Genio, Maxwell Kelley, Nancy Y. Kiang, Anthony Leboissetier, Jan P. Perlwitz, Reto A. Ruedy, Gary L. Russell, Linda E. Sohl, Michael J. Way, and Eric T. Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-925, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D, a generalized 3-dimensional model for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Jonah K. Shaw, Dustin J. Swales, Sergio DeSouza-Machado, David D. Turner, Jennifer E. Kay, and David P. Schneider
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-169, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Satellites have observed earth's emission of infrared radiation since the 1970s. Because infrared wavelengths interact with the atmosphere in distinct ways, these observations contain information about the earth and atmosphere. We present a tool that runs alongside global climate models and produces output that can be directly compared with satellite measurements of infrared radiation. We then use this tool for climate model evaluation, climate change detection, and satellite mission design.
Maria Vittoria Struglia, Alessandro Anav, Marta Antonelli, Sandro Calmanti, Franco Catalano, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Emanuela Pichelli, and Giovanna Pisacane
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-387, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of downscaling global climate projections for the Mediterranean and Italian regions aiming to produce high-resolution climate information for the assessment of climate change signals, focusing on extreme events. A general warming is foreseen by the end of century with a mean precipitation reduction accompanied, over Italian Peninsula, by a strong increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation events, particularly relevant for the high emissions scenario during autumn
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone, and greenhouse gases alone, among others, are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies, and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Hui Wan, Abhishek Yenpure, Berk Geveci, Richard C. Easter, Philip J. Rasch, Kai Zhang, and Xubin Zeng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4020, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In E3SMv2 and many other global climate models, the simulated anthropogenic aerosol influence on the Earth's energy balance is sensitive to the presence of clouds with very low droplet number concentrations. Numerical experiments conducted in this study suggest that mid- and high-latitude low-level stratus occurring under weak turbulence is an important cloud regime for understanding the causes of very low cloud droplet number concentrations in global climate simulations.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Cited articles
Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Tobias, S. M., and Weiss, N. O.: For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 20109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035442, 2008.
Alley, R. B., Berntsen, T., and Bindoff, N. L.: Climate Change 2007 – The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
Amblard, P., Moussaoui, S., Dudok de Wit, T., Aboudarham, J., Kretzschmar, M., Lilensten, J., and Auchère, F.: The EUV Sun as the superposition of elementary Suns, Astron. Astrophys., 487, L13–L16, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:200809588, 2008.
Andersson, M. E., Verronen, P. T., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Seppälä, A.: Missing driver in the Sun–Earth connection from energetic electron precipitation impacts mesospheric ozone, Nature Commun., 5, 5197, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6197, 2014a.
Andersson, M. E., Verronen, P. T., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Wang, S.: Longitudinal hotspots in the mesospheric OH variations due to energetic electron precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1095–1105, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1095-2014, 2014b.
Anet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Shapiro, A. I., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., and Schmutz, W. K.: Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4420–4425, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806, 2013.
Aubert, J.: Geomagnetic forecasts driven by thermal wind dynamics in the Earth's core, Geophys. J. Int., 203, 1738–1751, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv394, 2015.
Austin, J., Tourpali, K., Rozanov, E., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Bodeker, G., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Deushi, M., Fomichev, V. I., Giorgetta, M. A., Gray, L., Kodera, K., Lott, F., Manzini, E., Marsh, D., Matthes, K., Nagashima, T., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R. S., Struthers, H., and Tian, W.: Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of the solar cycle in ozone and temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D11306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009391, 2008.
Ball, W. T., Unruh, Y. C., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S., Wenzler, T., Mortlock, D. J., and Jaffe, A. H.: Reconstruction of total solar irradiance 1974-2009, Astron. Astrophys., 541, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201118702, 2012.
Ball, W. T., Haigh, J. D., Rozanov, E. V., Kuchar, A., Sukhodolov, T., Tummon, F., Shapiro, A. V., and Schmutz, W.: High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations, Nat. Geosci., 9, 206–209, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2640, 2016.
Barnard, L., Lockwood, M., Hapgood, M. A., Owens, M. J., Davis, C. J., and Steinhilber, F.: Predicting space climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048489, 2011.
Bartels, J.: The standardized index, Ks, and the planetary index, Kp, IATME Bulletin, 12b, 97 pp., 1949.
Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Jöckel, P., and Brühl, C.: Energetic particle precipitation in ECHAM5/MESSy1 – Part 1: Downward transport of upper atmospheric NOx produced by low energy electrons, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2729–2740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-2729-2009, 2009.
Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Seppälä, A., Jöckel, P., and Clilverd, M. A.: Geomagnetic activity related NOx enhancements and polar surface air temperature variability in a chemistry climate model: modulation of the NAM index, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4521–4531, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4521-2011, 2011.
Beer, J., McCracken, K., and von Steiger, R.: Cosmogenic Radionuclides, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 2012.
Bolduc, C., Charbonneau, P., Barnabé, R., and Bourqui, M. S.: A Reconstruction of Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance During the Maunder Minimum, Sol. Phys., 289, 2891–2906, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0503-0, 2014.
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., and Ljung, G. M.: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Wiley, 5th Edn., 2015.
Brockwell, P. J. and Davis, R. A.: Introduction to time series and forecasting, Springer Texts in Statistics, Springer, Berlin, 2nd Edn., 2010.
Bushby, P. J.: Zonal flows and grand minima in a solar dynamo model, Monthly Not. Royal Astron. Soc., 371, 772–780, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2006.10706.x, 2006.
Caballero-Lopez, R. A. and Moraal, H.: Limitations of the force field equation to describe cosmic ray modulation, J. Geophys. Res., 109, a01101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JA010098,2004.
Calisto, M., Usoskin, I., Rozanov, E., and Peter, T.: Influence of Galactic Cosmic Rays on atmospheric composition and dynamics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4547–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4547-2011, 2011.
Callis, L. B., Boughner, R. E., Baker, D. N., Mewaldt, R. A., Bernard Blake, J., Selesnick, R. S., Cummings, J. R., Natarajan, M., Mason, G. M., and Mazur, J. E.: Precipitating electrons: Evidence for effects on mesospheric odd nitrogen, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1901–1904, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL01787, 1996.
Cameron, R. H., Dasi-Espuig, M., Jiang, J., Işık, E., Schmitt, D., and Schüssler, M.: Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes, Astron. Astrophys., 557, A141, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201321981, 2013.
Charbonneau, P.: Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle, Living Reviews in Sol. Phys., 7, 3 pp., https://doi.org/10.12942/lrsp-2010-3, 2010.
Charbonneau, P.: Solar Dynamo Theory, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astr., 52, 251–290, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-astro-081913-040012, 2014.
Chiodo, G., Calvo, N., Marsh, D. R., and Garcia-Herrera, R.: The 11 year solar cycle signal in transient simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D06109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016393, 2012.
Chiodo, G., Garcia-Herrera, R., Calvo, N., Vaquero, J. M., Añel, J. A., Barriopedro, D., and Matthes, K.: The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 034015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015, 2016.
Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Lamarque, J. F., Randel, W. J., Stevenson, D. S., Wu, F., Bodeker, G. E., Shepherd, T. G., Shindell, D. T., and Waugh, D. W.: Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11267–11292, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11267-2011, 2011.
Clette, F., Svalgaard, L., Vaquero, J. M., and Cliver, E. W.: Revisiting the Sunspot Number, Space Sci. Rev., 186, 35–103, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-014-0074-2, 2014.
Cliver, E. W., Boriakoff, V., and Bounar, K. H.: Geomagnetic activity and the solar wind during the Maunder Minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 897–900, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL00500, 1998.
Coddington, O., Lean, J. L., Pilewskie, P., Snow, M., and Lindholm, D.: A Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1265, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00265.1, 2016.
Codrescu, M. V., Fuller-Rowell, T. J., Roble, R. G., and Evans, D. S.: Medium energy particle precipitation influences on the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 19977–19987, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JA01728, 1997.
Collins, W. D.: A global signature of enhanced shortwave absorption by clouds, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 31669–31679, 1998.
Cooke, D. J., Humble, J. E., Shea, M. A., Smart, D. F., Lund, N., Rasmussen, I. L., Byrnak, B., Goret, P., and Petrou, N.: On cosmic-ray cut-off terminology, Il Nuovo Cimento C, 14, 213–234, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02509357, 1991.
Damiani, A., Storini, M., Laurenza, M., and Rafanelli, C.: Solar particle effects on minor components of the Polar atmosphere, Ann. Geophys., 26, 361–370, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-26-361-2008, 2008.
Damiani, A., Funke, B., Marsh, D. R., López-Puertas, M., Santee, M. L., Froidevaux, L., Wang, S., Jackman, C. H., von Clarmann, T., Gardini, A., Cordero, R. R., and Storini, M.: Impact of January 2005 solar proton events on chlorine species, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 4159–4179, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-4159-2012, 2012.
Damiani, A., Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Santee, M. L., Cordero, R. R., Laurenza, M., and Watanabe, S.: Energetic particle precipitation: a major driver of the ozone budget in the Antarctic upper stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3554–3562, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068279, 2016.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hølm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Desorgher, L., Flückiger, E. O., Gurtner, M., Moser, M. R., and Bütikofer, R.: Atmocosmics: a Geant 4 Code for Computing the Interaction of Cosmic Rays with the Earth's Atmosphere, Int. J. Modern Phys. A, 20, 6802–6804, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217751X05030132, 2005.
Dietmüller, S., Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Kunze, M., Gellhorn, C., Brinkop, S., Frömming, C., Ponater, M., Steil, B., Lauer, A., and Hendricks, J.: A new radiation infrastructure for the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, based on version 2.51), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2209–2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, 2016.
Dudok de Wit, T.: A method for filling gaps in solar irradiance and solar proxy data, Astron. Astrophys., 533, A29, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201117024, 2011.
Dudok de Wit, T., Kopp, G., Fröhlich, C., and Schöll, M.: Methodology to create a new Total Solar Irradiance record: Making a composite out of multiple data records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 1196–1203, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071866, 2017.
Dunne, E. M., Gordon, H., Kürten, A., Almeida, J., Duplissy, J., Williamson, C., Ortega, I. K., Pringle, K. J., Adamov, A., Baltensperger, U., Barmet, P., Benduhn, F., Bianchi, F., Breitenlechner, M., Clarke, A., Curtius, J., Dommen, J., Donahue, N. M., Ehrhart, S., Flagan, R. C., Franchin, A., Guida, R., Hakala, J., Hansel, A., Heinritzi, M., Jokinen, T., Kangasluoma, J., Kirkby, J., Kulmala, M., Kupc, A., Lawler, M. J., Lehtipalo, K., Makhmutov, V., Mann, G., Mathot, S., Merikanto, J., Miettinen, P., Nenes, A., Onnela, A., Rap, A., Reddington, C. L. S., Riccobono, F., Richards, N. A. D., Rissanen, M. P., Rondo, L., Sarnela, N., Schobesberger, S., Sengupta, K., Simon, M., Sipilä, M., Smith, J. N., Stozkhov, Y., Tomé, A., Tröstl, J., Wagner, P. E., Wimmer, D., Winkler, P. M., Worsnop, D. R., and Carslaw, K. S.: Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements, Science, 354, 1119–1124, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf2649, 2016.
Ermolli, I., Matthes, K., Dudok de Wit, T., Krivova, N. A., Tourpali, K., Weber, M., Unruh, Y. C., Gray, L., Langematz, U., Pilewskie, P., Rozanov, E., Schmutz, W., Shapiro, A., Solanki, S. K., and Woods, T. N.: Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013, 2013.
Evans, D. and Greer, M.: Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite Space Environment Monitor – 2: Instrument Descriptions and Archive Data Documentation, NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR version 1.4 SEC-93, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Laboratories, Space Environment Center, Boulder, Colorado, 2000.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fang, X., Randall, C., Lummerzheim, D., Solomon, S., Mills, M., Marsh, D., Jackman, C., Wang, W., and Lu, G.: Electron impact ionization: A new parameterization for 100 eV to 1 MeV electrons, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A09311, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA013384, 2008.
Fang, X., Randall, C. E., Lummerzheim, D., Wang, W., Lu, G., Solomon, S. C., and Frahm, R. A.: Parameterization of monoenergetic electron impact ionization, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045406, 2010.
Feulner, G. and Rahmstorf, S.: On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042710, 2010.
Fligge, M., Solanki, S. K., and Unruh, Y. C.: Modelling irradiance variations from the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field, Astron. Astrophys., 353, 380–388, 2000.
Forster, P. M., Fomichev, V. I., Rozanov, E., Cagnazzo, C., Jonsson, A. I., Langematz, U., Fomin, B., Iacono, M. J., Mayer, B., Mlawer, E., Myhre, G., Portmann, R. W., Akiyoshi, H., Falaleeva, V., Gillett, N., Karpechko, A., Li, J., Lemennais, P., Morgenstern, O., Oberländer, S., Sigmond, M., and Shibata, K.: Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 116, 2156–2202, 2011.
Fouquart, Y. and Bonnel, B.: Computations of solar heating of the Earth's atmosphere: A new parameterization, Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 53, 35–62, 1980.
Frahm, R. A., Winningham, J. D., Sharber, J. R., Link, R., Crowley, G., Gaines, E. E., Chenette, D. L., Anderson, B. J., and Potemra, T. A.: The diffuse aurora: A significant source of ionization in the middle atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 28203–28214, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD02430, 1997.
Frederick, J. E.: Solar corpuscular emission and neutral chemistry in the Earth's middle atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 81, 3179–3186, https://doi.org/10.1029/JA081i019p03179, 1976.
Friederich, F., von Clarmann, T., Funke, B., Nieder, H., Orphal, J., Sinnhuber, M., Stiller, G. P., and Wissing, J. M.: Lifetime and production rate of NOx in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere in the polar spring/summer after the solar proton event in October–November 2003, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2531–2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2531-2013, 2013.
Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Gil-López, S., von Clarmann, T., Stiller, G. P., Fischer, H., and Kellmann, S.: Downward transport of upper atmospheric NOx into the polar stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the Antarctic 2003 and Arctic 2002/2003 winters, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006463, 2005.
Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Garcia-Comas, M., Stiller, G. P., von Clarmann, T., and Glatthor, N.: Mesospheric N2O enhancements as observed by MIPAS on Envisat during the polar winters in 2002–2004, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5787–5800, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-5787-2008, 2008.
Funke, B., Baumgaertner, A., Calisto, M., Egorova, T., Jackman, C. H., Kieser, J., Krivolutsky, A., López-Puertas, M., Marsh, D. R., Reddmann, T., Rozanov, E., Salmi, S.-M., Sinnhuber, M., Stiller, G. P., Verronen, P. T., Versick, S., von Clarmann, T., Vyushkova, T. Y., Wieters, N., and Wissing, J. M.: Composition changes after the “Halloween” solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 9089–9139, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-9089-2011, 2011.
Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Stiller, G. P., and von Clarmann, T.: Mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation during 2002–2012, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 4429–4446, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021404, 2014a.
Funke, B., Puertas, M. L., Holt, L., Randall, C. E., Stiller, G. P., and von Clarmann, T.: Hemispheric distributions and interannual variability of NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation in 2002–2012, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 13565–13582, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022423, 2014b.
Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Stiller, G. P., Versick, S., and von Clarmann, T.: A semi-empirical model for mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8667–8693, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8667-2016, 2016.
Fytterer, T., Mlynczak, M. G., Nieder, H., Pérot, K., Sinnhuber, M., Stiller, G., and Urban, J.: Energetic particle induced intra-seasonal variability of ozone inside the Antarctic polar vortex observed in satellite data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3327–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3327-2015, 2015a.
Fytterer, T., Santee, M. L., Sinnhuber, M., and Wang, S.: The 27day solar rotational effect on mesospheric nighttime OH and O3 observations induced by geomagnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 7926–7936, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021183, 2015b.
Giorgetta, M. A. and Bengtsson, L.: Potential role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange as found in water vapor in general circulation model experiments, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 6003–6019, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200112, 1999.
Gray, L., Scaife, A., Mitchell, D., Osprey, S., Ineson, S., Hardiman, S., Butchart, N., Knight, J., Sutton, R., and Kodera, K.: A Lagged Response to the 11-year Solar Cycle in Observed Winter Atlantic/European Weather Patterns, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 1–16, 2013.
Gray, L. J., Rumbold, S., and Shine, K. P.: Stratospheric temperatures and radiative forcing response to 11-year solar cycle changes in irradiance and ozone, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2402–2417, 2009.
Gray, L. J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J. D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K., Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl, G. A., Shindell, D., van Geel, B., and White, W.: Solar influences on climate, Rev. Geophys., 48, 1–53, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000282, 2010.
Haberreiter, M., Schöll, M., Dudok de Wit, T., Kretzschmar, M., Misios, S., Tourpali, K., and Schmutz, W.: , A new observational solar irradiance composite, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023492, 2017.
Haigh, J.: The impact of solar variability on climate, Science, 272, 981–984, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.272.5264.981, 1996.
Haigh, J. D.: The Role of Stratospheric Ozone in Modulating the Solar Radiative Forcing of Climate, Nature, 370, 544–546, https://doi.org/10.1038/370544a0, 1994.
Harder, J. W., Lawrence, G., Fontenla, J., Rottman, G., and Woods, T.: The Spectral Irradiance Monitor: Scientific Requirements, Instrument Design, and Operation Modes, Sol. Phys., 230, 141–167, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-5007-5, 2005.
Harder, J. W., Fontenla, J. M., Pilewskie, P., Richard, E. C., and Woods, T. N.: Trends in solar spectral irradiance variability in the visible and infrared, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036797, 2009.
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J.: The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Springer, New York, 2nd Edn., 2009.
Heath, D. F., Krueger, A. J., and Crutzen, P. J.: Solar proton event: influence on stratospheric ozone, Science, 197, 886–889, 1977.
Hegglin, M. I., Kinnison, D., Plummer, D., et al.: Historical and future ozone database (1850–2100) in support of CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., in preparation, 2017.
Hendrickx, K., Megner, L., Gumbel, J., Siskind, D. E., Orsolini, Y. J., Tyssøy, H. N., and Hervig, M.: Observation of 27 day solar cycles in the production and mesospheric descent of EPP-produced NO, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 8978–8988, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021441, 2015.
Holt, L. A., Randall, C. E., Peck, E. D., Marsh, D. R., Smith, A. K., and Lynn Harvey, V.: The influence of major sudden stratospheric warming and elevated stratopause events on the effects of energetic particle precipitation in WACCM, J. Geophys. Res., 11636–11646, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020294, 2013.
Hood, L. L., Misios, S., Mitchell, D. M., Rozanov, E., Gray, L. J., Tourpali, K., Matthes, K., Schmidt, H., Chiodo, G., Thiéblemont, R., Shindell, D., and Krivolutsky, A.: Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: The ozone response, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2670–2689, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2553, 2015.
Horne, R., Lam, M., and Green, J.: Energetic electron precipitation from the outer radiation belt during geomagnetic storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040236, 2009.
Hoyt, D. V. and Schatten, K. H.: Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Solar Activity Reconstruction, Sol. Phys., 181, 491–491, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005056326158, 1998.
Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J. F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P., Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J., and Marshall, S.: The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339–1360, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00121.1, 2013.
Inceoglu, F., Simoniello, R., Knudsen, M. F., Karoff, C., Olsen, J., and Turck-Chièze, S.: On the Current Solar Magnetic Activity in the Light of Its Behaviour During the Holocene, Sol. Phys., 291, 303–315, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0805-x, 2016.
Ineson, S., Scaife, A. A., Knight, J. R., Manners, J. C., Dunstone, N. J., Gray, L. J., and Haigh, J. D.: Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nat. Geosci., 4, 753–757, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1282, 2011.
Ineson, S., Maycock, A. C., Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Dunstone, N. J., Harder, J. W., Knight, J. R., Lockwood, M., Manners, J. C., and Wood, R. A.: Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum, Nature Communications, 6, 7535, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8535, 2015.
Jackman, C. H. and McPeters, R. D.: The Effect of solar proton events on ozone and other constituents, Solar Variability and its Effects on Climate, Geophys. Monogr., 141, 305–319, 2004.
Jackman, C. H., Frederick, J. E., and Stolarski, R. S.: Production of odd nitrogen in the stratosphere and mesosphere: An intercomparison of source strengths, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 7495–7505, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC085iC12p07495, 1980.
Jackman, C. H., Douglass, A. R., Rood, R. B., McPeters, R. D., and Meade, P. E.: Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 7417–7428, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD095iD06p07417, 1990.
Jackman, C. H., Cerniglia, M. C., Nielsen, J. E., Allen, D. J., Zawodny, J. M., McPeters, R. D., Douglass, A. R., Rosenfield, J. E., and Rood, R. B.: Two-dimensional and three-dimensional model simulations, measurements, and interpretation of the influence of the October 1989 solar proton events on the middle atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 11641–11660, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD00369, 1995.
Jackman, C. H., McPeters, R. D., Labow, G. J., Fleming, E. L., Praderas, C. J., and Russell, J. M.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric effects due to the July 2000 solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2883–2886, 2001.
Jackman, C. H., DeLand, M. T., Labow, G. J., Fleming, E. L., Weisenstein, D. K., Ko, M. K. W., Sinnhuber, M., Anderson, J., and Russell, J. M.: The Influence of the Several Very Large Solar Proton Events in Years 2000-2003 on the Neutral Middle Atmosphere, Adv. Space Res., 35, 445–450, 2005a.
Jackman, C. H., DeLand, M. T., Labow, G. J., Fleming, E. L., Weisenstein, D. K., Ko, M. K. W., Sinnhuber, M., and Russell, J. M.: Neutral atmospheric influences of the solar proton events in October–November 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S27, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JA010888, 2005b.
Jackman, C. H., Marsh, D. R., Vitt, F. M., Garcia, R. R., Fleming, E. L., Labow, G. J., Randall, C. E., López-Puertas, M., Funke, B., von Clarmann, T., and Stiller, G. P.: Short- and medium-term atmospheric constituent effects of very large solar proton events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 765–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-765-2008, 2008.
Jackman, C. H., Marsh, D. R., Vitt, F. M., Roble, R. G., Randall, C. E., Bernath, P. F., Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Versick, S., Stiller, G. P., Tylka, A. J., and Fleming, E. L.: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric influence of the solar proton events and ground level enhancement in January 2005, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 6153–6166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-6153-2011, 2011.
Jackman, C. H., Randall, C. E., Harvey, V. L., Wang, S., Fleming, E. L., López-Puertas, M., Funke, B., and Bernath, P. F.: Middle atmospheric changes caused by the January and March 2012 solar proton events, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1025–1038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1025-2014, 2014.
Jackman, C. H., Marsh, D. R., Kinnison, D. E., Mertens, C. J., and Fleming, E. L.: Atmospheric changes caused by galactic cosmic rays over the period 1960–2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5853–5866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016, 2016.
Jackson, A., Jonkers, A. R. T., and Walker, M. R.: Four centuries of geomagnetic secular variation from historical records, Philos. T. R. Soc. Lond. A, 358, 957–990, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2000.0569, 2000.
Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010.
Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Pozzer, A., Kunze, M., Kirner, O., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Brinkop, S., Cai, D. S., Dyroff, C., Eckstein, J., Frank, F., Garny, H., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Graf, P., Grewe, V., Kerkweg, A., Kern, B., Matthes, S., Mertens, M., Meul, S., Neumaier, M., Nützel, M., Oberländer-Hayn, S., Ruhnke, R., Runde, T., Sander, R., Scharffe, D., and Zahn, A.: Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1153–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, 2016.
Jones, A., Qin, G., Strong, K., Walker, K. A., McLinden, C. A., Toohey, M., Kerzenmacher, T., Bernath, P. F., and Boone, C. D.: A global inventory of stratospheric NOy from ACE-FTS, J. Geophys. Res., 116, d17304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015465,2011.
Jungclaus, J. H., Bard, E., Baroni, M., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Chini, L. P., Egorova, T., Evans, M., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Hurtt, G. C., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Khodri, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Krivova, N., LeGrande, A. N., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Man, W., Meinshausen, M., Moberg, A., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. I., Phipps, S. J., Pongratz, J., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, G. A., Schmidt, H., Schmutz, W., Schurer, A., Shapiro, A. I., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solanki, S. K., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Usoskin, I. G., Wagner, S., Wu, C.-Y., Yeo, K. L., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, Q., and Zorita, E.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: the Last Millennium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-278, in review, 2016.
Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M., Jungclaus, J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Brierley, C., Crucifix, M., Dolan, A., Fernandez-Donado, L., Fischer, H., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Peltier, W. R., Phipps, S. J., Roche, D. M., Schmidt, G. A., Tarasov, L., Valdes, P. J., Zhang, Q., and Zhou, T.: PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-106, in review, 2016.
Kinnison, D. E., Brasseur, G. P., Walters, S., Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Sassi, F., Harvey, V. L., Randall, C. E., Emmons, L., Lamarque, J. F., Hess, P., Orlando, J. J., Tie, X. X., Randel, W., Pan, L. L., Gettelman, A., Granier, C., Diehl, T., Niemeier, U., and Simmons, A. J.: Sensitivity of chemical tracers to meteorological parameters in the MOZART-3 chemical transport model, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D20302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007879, 2007.
Kodera, K.: Solar cycle modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: Implication in the spatial structure of the NAO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 59-1–59-4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014557, 2002.
Kopp, G. and Lean, J. L.: A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L01706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045777, 2011.
Kopp, G., Lawrence, G., and Rottman, G.: The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Science Results, Sol. Phys., 230, 129–139, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-7433-9, 2005.
Kopp, G., Krivova, N., Lean, J., and Wu, C. J.: The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions, Sol. Phys., 291, 2951–2965, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-016-0853-x, 2016.
Kremliovsky, M.: Limits of Predictability of Solar Activity, Solar Phys., 159, 371–380, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00686538, 1995.
Krivolutsky, A., Bazilevskaya, G., Vyushkova, T., and Knyazeva, G.: Influence of cosmic rays on chemical composition of the atmosphere: data analysis and photochemical modelling, Phys. Chem. Earth, Parts A/B/C, 27, 471–476, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-7065(02)00028-1, 2002.
Krivolutsky, A. A., Kuminov, A. A., Kukoleva, A. A., Repnev, A. I., Pereyaslova, N. K., and Nazarova, M. N.: Solar proton activity during cycle 23 and changes in the ozonosphere: Numerical simulation and analysis of observational data, Geomagn. Aeronomy, 48, 432–445, https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793208040038, 2008.
Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., Fligge, M., and Unruh, Y. C.: Reconstruction of solar irradiance variations in cycle 23: Is solar surface magnetism the cause?, Astron. Astrophys., 399, L1–L4, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20030029, 2003.
Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E. A., and Solanki, S. K.: Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 115, A12112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015431, 2010.
Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., and Unruh, Y. C.: Towards a long-term record of solar total and spectral irradiance, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phy., 73, 223–234, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2009.11.013, 2011.
Kunze, M., Godolt, M., Langematz, U., Grenfell, J., Hamann-Reinus, A., and Rauer, H.: Investigating the early Earth faint young Sun problem with a general circulation model, Planet. Space Sci., 98, 77–92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2013.09.011, 2014.
Laken, B. A. and Čalogović, J.: Composite analysis with Monte Carlo methods: an example with cosmic rays and clouds, J. Space Weather Space Climate, 3, A29, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2013051, 2013.
Lam, M. M., Horne, R. B., Meredith, N. P., Glauert, S. A., Moffat-Griffin, T., and Green, J. C.: Origin of energetic electron precipitation > 30 keV into the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 115, A00F08, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JA014619, 2010.
Langematz, U., Kubin, A., Brühl, C., Baumgaertner, A., Cubasch, U., and Spangehl, T.: Solar effects on chemistry and climate including ocean interactions in Climate And Weather of the Sun-Earth System (CAWSES): Highlights from a Priority Program, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands,541–571, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4348-9, 2013.
Lean, J. L.: The Sun's Variable Radiation and Its Relevance For Earth, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astrophys., 35, 33–67, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.astro.35.1.33, 1997.
Lean, J. L.: Evolution of the Sun's spectral irradiance since the Maunder Minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2425–2428, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL000043, 2000.
Lean, J. L. and DeLand, M. T.: How Does the Sun's Spectrum Vary?, J. Climate, 25, 2555–2560, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00571.1, 2012.
Lean, J. L. and Rind, D. H.: How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034864, 2008.
Lean, J. L. and Rind, D. H.: How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, 15708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038932, 2009.
Lean, J. L., Cook, J., Marquette, W., and Johannesson, A.: Magnetic Sources of the Solar Irradiance Cycle, Astron. J., 492, 390–401, https://doi.org/10.1086/305015, 1998.
Lean, J. L., Woods, T. N., Eparvier, F. G., Meier, R. R., Strickland, D. J., Correira, J. T., and Evans, J. S.: Solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance: Present, past, and future, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 116, A01102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015901, 2011.
Lilensten, J., Dudok de Wit, T., and Matthes, K. (Eds.): Earth's climate response to a changing Sun, EDP Sciences, Paris, 2015.
Ljung, L.: System Identification: Theory for the User, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 2nd Edn., 1997.
Lockwood, M., Harrison, R. G., Woollings, T., and Solanki, S.: Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 024001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001, 2010.
Lockwood, M., Barnard, L., Nevanlinna, H., Owens, M. J., Harrison, R. G., Rouillard, A. P., and Davis, C. J.: Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 1: A new geomagnetic data composite, Ann. Geophys., 31, 1957–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-1957-2013, 2013.
Lockwood, M., Nevanlinna, H., Barnard, L., Owens, M. J., Harrison, R. G., Rouillard, A. P., and Scott, C. J.: Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux, Ann. Geophys., 32, 383–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-383-2014, 2014.
López-Puertas, M., Funke, B., Gil-López, S., von Clarmann, T., Stiller, G. P., Höpfner, M., Kellmann, S., Fischer, H., and Jackman, C. H.: Observation of NOx Enhancement and Ozone Depletion in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres after the October–November 2003 Solar Proton Events, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S43, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011050, 2005a.
López-Puertas, M., Funke, B., Gil-López, S., von Clarmann, T., Stiller, G. P., Höpfner, M., Kellmann, S., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Fischer, H., and Jackman, C. H.: HNO3, N2O5 and ClONO2 Enhancements after the October–November 2003 Solar Proton Events, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S44, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011051, 2005b.
Maliniemi, V., Asikainen, T., and Mursula, K.: Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 9752–9764, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021343, 2014.
Marsh, D. R., Solomon, S. C., and Reynolds, A. E.: Empirical model of nitric oxide in the lower thermosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 109, A07301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JA010199, 2004.
Marsh, D. R., Garcia, R. R., Kinnison, D. E., Boville, B. A., Sassi, F., Solomon, S. C., and Matthes, K.: Modeling the whole atmosphere response to solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D23306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008306, 2007.
Marsh, D. R., Mills, M. J., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Calvo, N., and Polvani, L. M.: Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM), J. Climate, 26, 7372–7391, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00558.1, 2013.
Matthes, K., Kodera, K., Haigh, J., Shindell, D., Shibata, K., Langematz, U., Rozanov, E., and Kuroda, Y.: GRIPS solar experiments intercomparison project: Initial results, Pap. Meteoro. Geophys., 54, 71–90, 2003.
Matthes, K., Kuroda, Y., Kodera, K., and Langematz, U.: Transfer of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere: Northern winter, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006283, 2006.
Matthes, K., Marsh, D. R., Garcia, R. R., Kinnison, D. E., Sassi, F., and Walters, S.: Role of the QBO in modulating the influence of the 11 year solar cycle on the atmosphere using constant forcings, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013020, 2010.
Mayaud, P.: The aa indices: A 100-year series characterizing the magnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 77, 6870–6874, https://doi.org/10.1029/JA077i034p06870, 1972.
Mayaud, P.-N.: Derivation, Meaning, and Use of Geomagnetic Indices, Geophysical Monograph AGU, Washington DC, 22, 1980.
Maycock, A. C., Ineson, S., Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Anstey, J. A., Lockwood, M., Butchart, N., Hardiman, S. C., Mitchell, D. M., and Osprey, S. M.: Possible impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 9043–9058, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022022, 2015.
Maycock, A. C., Matthes, K., Tegtmeier, S., Thiéblemont, R., and Hood, L.: The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone – Part 1: A comparison of recently updated satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10021–10043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016, 2016.
Maycock, A. C., Matthes, K., Tegtmeier, S., Schmidt, H., Thiéblemont, R., Hood, L., Bekki, S., Deushi, M., Jöckel, P., Kirner, O., Kunze, M., Marchand, M., Marsh, D. R., Michou, M., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Yamashita, Y., and Yoshida, K.: The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-477, in review, 2017.
Mayer, B. and Kylling, A.: Technical note: The libRadtran software package for radiative transfer calculations – description and examples of use, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1855-1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-1855-2005, 2005.
McClintock, W. E., Rottman, G. J., and Woods, T. N.: Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment II (Solstice II): Instrument Concept and Design, Sol. Phys., 230, 225–258, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-7432-x, 2005.
McCracken, K. G., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., and Abreu, J.: A Phenomenological Study of the Cosmic Ray Variations over the Past 9400 Years, and Their Implications Regarding Solar Activity and the Solar Dynamo, Sol. Phys., 286, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-013-0265-0, 2013.
McIlwain, C. E.: Coordinates for Mapping the Distribution of Magnetically Trapped Particles, J. Geophys. Res., 66, 3681–3691, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ066i011p03681, 1961.
McPeters, R. D.: A nitric oxide increase observed following the July 1982 solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 13, 667–670, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL013i007p00667, 1986.
McPeters, R. D. and Jackman, C. H.: The response of ozone to solar proton events during solar cycle 21: The observations, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 7945–7954, https://doi.org/10.1029/JD090iD05p07945, 1985.
McPeters, R. D., Jackman, C. H., and Stassinopoulos, E. G.: Observations of ozone depletion associated with solar proton events, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 12071–12081, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC086iC12p12071, 1981.
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., and Marsh, D. R.: Could a future “Grand Solar Minimum” like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1789–1793, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50361, 2013.
Mewaldt, R. A., Cohen, C. M. S., Labrador, A. W., Leske, R. A., Mason, G. M., Desai, M. I., Looper, M. D., Mazur, J. E., Selesnick, R. S., and Haggerty, D. K.: Proton, helium and electron spectra during the large solar particle events of October–November 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011038, 2005.
Mironova, I. A., Aplin, K. L., Arnold, F., Bazilevskaya, G. A., Harrison, R. G., Krivolutsky, A. A., Nicoll, K. A., Rozanov, E. V., Turunen, E., and Usoskin, I. G.: Energetic Particle Influence on the Earth's Atmosphere, Space Sci. Rev., 194, 1–96, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-015-0185-4, 2015.
Misios, S., Mitchell, D. M., Gray, L. J., Tourpali, K., Matthes, K., Hood, L. L., Schmidt, H., Chiodo, G., Thiéblemont, R., Rozanov, E., and Krivolutsky, A.: Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: effects of atmosphere–ocean coupling, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 928–941, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2695, 2016.
Mitchell, D. M., Gray, L. J., Fujiwara, M., Hibino, T., Anstey, J., Harada, Y., Long, C., Misios, S., Stott, P. A., and Tan, D.: Signatures of naturally induced variability in the atmosphere using multiple reanalysis datasets., Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2011–2031, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2492, 2015a.
Mitchell, D. M., Misios, S., Gray, L. J., Tourpali, K., Matthes, K., Hood, L. L., Schmidt, H., Chiodo, G., Thiéblemont, R., Rozanov, E., Shindell, D., and Krivolutsky, A.: Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the stratospheric pathway, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 2390–2403, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2530, 2015b.
Morley, S. K., Friedel, R. H. W., Cayton, T. E., and Noveroske, E.: A rapid, global and prolonged electron radiation belt dropout observed with the Global Positioning System constellation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042772, 2010.
Muñoz-Jaramillo, A., Dasi-Espuig, M., Balmaceda, L. A., and DeLuca, E. E.: Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies, Astrophys. J., 767, L25, https://doi.org/10.1088/2041-8205/767/2/L25, 2013.
Neal, J. J., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., Thomson, N. R., Raita, T., and Ulich, T.: Long-term determination of energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere from AARDDVARK subionospheric VLF observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 120, 2194–2211, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020689, 2015.
Neale, R. B., Richter, J., Park, S., Lauritzen, P. H., Vavrus, S. J., Rasch, P. J., and Zhang, M.: The Mean Climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments, J. Climate, 26, 5150–5168, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00236.1, 2013.
Nevanlinna, H.: Results of the Helsinki magnetic observatory 1844-1912, Ann. Geophys., 22, 1691–1704, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-22-1691-2004, 2004.
Nieder, H., Winkler, H., Marsh, D., and Sinnhuber, M.: NOx production due to energetic particle precipitation in the MLT region: Results from ion chemistry model studies, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 2137–2148, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019044, 2014.
Nissen, K. M., Matthes, K., Langematz, U., and Mayer, B.: Towards a better representation of the solar cycle in general circulation models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5391–5400, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5391-2007, 2007.
Passos, D., Charbonneau, P., and Beaudoin, P.: An Exploration of Non-kinematic Effects in Flux Transport Dynamos, Sol. Phys., 279, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-9971-2, 2012.
Pesnell, W. D.: Solar Cycle Predictions, Sol. Phys., 281, 507–532, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-9997-5, 2012.
Petrovay, K.: Solar Cycle Prediction, Living Rev. Solar Phys., 7, https://doi.org/10.12942/lrsp-2010-6, 2010.
Picone, J. M., Hedin, A. E., Drob, D. P., and Aikin, A. C.: NRLMSISE-00 empirical model of the atmosphere: Statistical comparisons and scientific issues, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 107, 1468, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JA009430, 2002.
Porter, H. S., Jackman, C. H., and Green, A. E. S.: Efficiencies for production of atomic nitrogen and oxygen by relativistic proton impact in air, J. Chem. Phys., 65, 154–167, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.432812, 1976.
Prša, A., Harmanec, P., Torres, G., Mamajek, E., Asplund, M., Capitaine, N., Christensen-Dalsgaard, J., Depagne, É., Haberreiter, M., Hekker, S., Hilton, J., Kopp, G., Kostov, V., Kurtz, D. W., Laskar, J., Mason, B. D., Milone, E. F., Montgomery, M., Richards, M., Schmutz, W., Schou, J., and Stewart, S. G.: Nominal Values for Selected Solar and Planetary Quantities: IAU 2015 Resolution B3, Astron. J., 152, 41, https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-6256/152/2/41, 2016.
Randall, C. E., Rusch, D. W., Bevilacqua, R. M., Hoppel, K. W., and Lumpe, J. D.: Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) II stratospheric NO2, 1993–1996, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 28361–28371, 1998.
Randall, C. E., Siskind, D. E., and Bevilacqua, R. M.: Stratospheric NOx enhancements in the southern hemisphere vortex in winter/spring of 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2385–2388, 2001.
Randall, C. E., Harvey, V. L., Singleton, C. S., Bailey, S. M., Bernath, P. F., Codrescu, M., Nakajima, H., and Russell III, J. M.: Energetic particle precipitation effects on the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere in 1992–2005, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D08308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007696, 2007.
Randall, C. E., Harvey, V. L., Siskind, D. E., France, J., Bernath, P. F., Boone, C. D., and Walker, K. A.: NOx descent in the Arctic middle atmosphere in early 2009, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18811, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039706, 2009.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
Reames, D.: Particle Acceleration at the Sun and in the Heliosphere, Space Sci. Rev., 90, 413–491, 1999.
Reddmann, T., Ruhnke, R., Versick, S., and Kouker, W.: Modeling disturbed stratospheric chemistry during solar-induced NOx enhancements observed with MIPAS/ENVISAT, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00I11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012569, 2010.
Rees, M. H.: Physics and chemistry of the upper atmosphere, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511573118, 1989.
Reeves, G. D., McAdams, K. L., Friedel, R. H. W., and O'Brien, T. P.: Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1529, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016513, 2003.
Richardson, I. and Cane, H.: Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 23 (1996–2009): Catalog and Summary of Properties, Sol. Phys., 264, 189–237, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-010-9568-6, 2010.
Rienecker, M. M., Suarez, M. J., Gelaro, R., Todling, R., Bacmeister, J., Liu, E., Bosilovich, M. G., Schubert, S. D., Takacs, L., Kim, G.-K., Bloom, S., Chen, J., Collins, D., Conaty, A., da Silva, A., Gu, W., Joiner, J., Koster, R. D., Lucchesi, R., Molod, A., Owens, T., Pawson, S., Pegion, P., Redder, C. R., Reichle, R., Robertson, F. R., Ruddick, A. G., Sienkiewicz, M., and Woollen, J.: MERRA: NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, J. Climate, 24, 3624–3648, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00015.1, 2011.
Rind, D., Lean, J., Lerner, J., Lonergan, P., and Leboissitier, A.: Exploring the stratospheric/tropospheric response to solar forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D24103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010114, 2008.
Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., Green, J. C., and Lam, M. M.: Use of POES SEM-2 observations to examine radiation belt dynamics and energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A04202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA014023, 2010.
Rodger, C. J., Kavanagh, A. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Marple, S. R.: Comparison between POES energetic electron precipitation observations and riometer absorptions: Implications for determining true precipitation fluxes, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 118, 7810–7821, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019439, 2013.
Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, Hagemann, S., Kirchner, I., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Rhodin, A., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U., and Tompkins, A.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5, Part I, Tech. Rep. No. 349, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, 2003.
Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Horizontal and Vertical Resolution in the ECHAM5 Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 19, 3771–3791, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3824.1, 2006.
Rohen, G. J., von Savigny, C., Sinnhuber, M., Llewellyn, E. J., Kaiser, J. W., Jackman, C. H., Kallenrode, M.-B., Schrőter, J., Eichmann, K.-U., Bovensmann, H., and Burrows, J. P.: Ozone depletion during the solar proton events of October/November 2003 as seen by SCIAMACHY, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JA010984, 2005.
Rottman, G.: The SORCE Mission, Sol. Phys., 230, 7–25, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-8112-6, 2005.
Rozanov, E., Calisto, M., Egorova, T., Peter, T., and Schmutz, W.: Influence of the Precipitating Energetic Particles on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate, Surv. Geophys., 33, 483–501, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9192-0, 2012.
Rusch, D. W., Gérard, J.-C., Solomon, S., Crutzen, P. J., and Reid, G. C.: The effect of particle precipitation events on the neutral and ion chemistry of the middle atmosphere. I – Odd nitrogen, Planet. Space Sci., 29, 767–774, 1981.
Salmi, S.-M., Verronen, P. T., Thölix, L., Kyrölä, E., Backman, L., Karpechko, A. Yu., and Seppälä, A.: Mesosphere-to-stratosphere descent of odd nitrogen in February–March 2009 after sudden stratospheric warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4645–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-4645-2011, 2011.
Sander, R., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., Harder, H., Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Kubistin, D., Regelin, E., Riede, H., Sandu, A., Taraborrelli, D., Tost, H., and Xie, Z.-Q.: The atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA-3.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 373–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-373-2011, 2011.
Sander, R., Jöckel, P., Kirner, O., Kunert, A. T., Landgraf, J., and Pozzer, A.: The photolysis module JVAL-14, compatible with the MESSy standard, and the JVal PreProcessor (JVPP), Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2653–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2653-2014, 2014.
Sander, S. P., Abbatt, J., Barker, J. R., Burkholder, J. B., Friedl, R. R., Golden, D. M., Huie, R. E., Kolb, C. E., Kurylo, M. J., Moortgat, G. K., Orkin, V. L., and Wine, P. H.: Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies, Tech. Rep. Evaluation No. 17, JPL Publication 10-6, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, available at: http://jpldataeval.jpl.nasa.gov, 2011.
Scaife, A. A., Ineson, S., Knight, J. R., Gray, L., Kodera, K., and Smith, D. M.: A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 434–439, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50099, 2013.
Schmidt, H., Brasseur, G., Charron, M., Manzini, E., Giorgetta, M., Diehl, T., Formichev, V., Kinnison, D., Marsh, D., and Walters, S.: The HAMMONIA chemistry climate model: sensitivity of the mesopause region to the 11-year solar cycle and CO2 doubling, J. Climate, 19, 3903–3931, 2006.
Schmutz, W., Fehlmann, A., Finsterle, W., Kopp, G., and Thuillier, G.: Total solar irradiance measurements with PREMOS/PICARD, in: AIP conference proceedings, vol. 1531 of American Institute of Physics Conference Series, p. 624, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4804847, 2013.
Schöll, M., de Wit, T. D., Kretzschmar, M., and Haberreiter, M.: Making of a solar spectral irradiance dataset I: observations, uncertainties, and methods, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 6, A14, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2016007, 2016.
Semeniuk, K., Fomichev, V. I., McConnell, J. C., Fu, C., Melo, S. M. L., and Usoskin, I. G.: Middle atmosphere response to the solar cycle in irradiance and ionizing particle precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5045–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-5045-2011, 2011.
Seppälä, A. and Clilverd, M. A.: Energetic Particle Forcing of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere: Comparison to solar irradiance forcing, Frontiers in Physics, 2, 25, https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025, 2014.
Seppälä, A., Verronen, P. T., Sofieva, V. F., Tamminen, J., Kyrölä, E., Rodger, C. J., and Clilverd, M. A.: Destruction of the tertiary ozone maximum during a solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025571, 2006.
Seppälä, A., Randall, C. E., Clilverd, M. A., Rozanov, E., and Rodger, C. J.: Geomagnetic activity and polar surface air temperature variability, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A10312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JA014029, 2009.
Seppälä, A., Matthes, K., Randall, C. E., and Mironova, I. A.: What is the solar influence on climate? Overview of activities during CAWSES-II, Prog. Earth Planet. Sc., 1, 24, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-014-0024-3, 2014.
Shibata, K. and Kodera, K.: Simulation of radiative and dynamical responses of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 67, 125–143, 2005.
Shindell, D. T., Schmidt, G. A., Mann, M. E., Rind, D., and Waple, A.: Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, 2149–2152, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064363, 2001.
Sinnhuber, M., Kazeminejad, S., and Wissing, J.-M.: Interannual variation of NOx from the lower thermosphere to the upper stratosphere in the years 1991–2005, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A02312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA015825, 2011.
Sinnhuber, M., Nieder, H., and Wieters, N.: Energetic particle precipitation and the chemistry of the mesosphere / lower thermosphere, Surv. Geophys., 33, 1281–1334, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9201-3, 2012.
Sinnhuber, M., Friederich, F., Bender, S., and Burrows, J.: The response of mesospheric NO to geomagnetic forcing in 2002–2012 as seen by SCIAMACHY, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 121, 1281–1334, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA022284, 2016.
Siskind, D. E.: Atmospheric science across the Stratopause, vol. 123 of Geophysical Monograph, chapt. On the coupling between middle and upper atmospheric odd nitrogen, 101–116, American Geophysical Union, 2000.
Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Guemas, V., Hawkins, E., Hazeleger, W., Hermanson, L., Ho, C. K., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Lean, J., Matei, D., Merryfield, W. J., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, A., Wouters, B., and Wyser, K.: Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2875–2888, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0, 2013.
Solanki, S., Usoskin, I., Kromer, B., Schüssler, M., and Beer, J.: Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years, Nature, 431, 1084–1087, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02995, 2004.
Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Haigh, J. D.: Solar Irradiance Variability and Climate, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astr., 51, 311–351, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-astro-082812-141007, 2013.
Solomon, S., Rusch, D. W., Gérard, J.-C., Reid, G. C., and Crutzen, P. J.: The effect of particle precipitation events on the neutral and ion chemistry of the middle atmosphere. II - Odd hydrogen, Planet. Space Sci., 29, 885–892, 1981.
Solomon, S., Crutzen, P. J., and Roble, R. G.: Photochemical coupling of the thermosphere and the lower atmosphere 1. Odd nitrogen from 50 to 120 km, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 7206–7220, 1982.
Solomon, S. C. and Qian, L.: Solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance for general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A10306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011160, 2005.
Steinhilber, F. and Beer, J.: Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 118, 1861–1867, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgra.50210, 2013.
St-Jean, C. and Charbonneau, P.: Solar cycle modelling using spatiotemporal decomposition schemes, J. Computat. Phys., 223, 50–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2006.08.010, 2007.
Steinhilber, F., Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., Brunner, I., Christl, M., Fischer, H., Heikkilä, U., Kubik, P. W., Mann, M., McCracken, K. G., Miller, H., Miyahara, H., Oerter, H., and Wilhelms, F.: 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 5967–5971, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1118965109, 2012.
Stott, P., Jones, G. S., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?, J. Climate, 16, 4070–4093, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4079:DMUTSC>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Summers, D., Ni, B., and Meredith, N. P.: Timescales for radiation belt electron acceleration and loss due to resonant wave-particle interactions: 1. Theory, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 112, A04206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JA011801, 2007.
Swider, W. and Keneshea, T.: Decrease of ozone and atomic oxygen in the lower mesosphere during a PCA event, Planet. Space Sci., 21, 1969–1973, https://doi.org/10.1016/0032-0633(73)90126-8, 1973.
Tapping, K. F.: The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), Space Weather, 11, 394–406, https://doi.org/10.1002/swe.20064, 2013.
Thébault, E.: International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the 12th generation, Earth Planet. Space, 67, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-015-0228-9, 2015.
Thieblemont, R., Matthes, K., Omrani, N.-E., Kodera, K., and Hansen, F.: Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability, Nature Commun., 6, 8268, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9268, 2015.
Thomas, R. J., Barth, C. A., Rottman, G. J., Rusch, D. W., Mount, G. H., Lawrence, G. M., Sanders, R. W., Thomas, G. E., and Clemens, L. E.: Mesospheric ozone depletion during the Solar Proton Event of July 13, 1982 Part I Measurement, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10, 253–255, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL010i004p00253, 1983.
Tobias, S. M.: The solar cycle: parity interactions and amplitude modulation., Astron. Astrophys., 322, 1007–1017, 1997.
Turunen, E., Verronen, P. T., Seppälä, A., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., Tamminen, J., Enell, C.-F., and Ulich, T.: Impact of different precipitation energies on NOx generation during geomagnetic storms, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 71, 1176–1189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.07.005, 2009.
Unruh, Y. C., Solanki, S. K., and Fligge, M.: The spectral dependence of facular contrast and solar irradiance variations, Astron. Astrophys., 345, 635–642, 1999.
Usoskin, I. G.: A History of Solar Activity over Millennia, Living Rev. Solar Phys., 10, 3603–3620, https://doi.org/10.12942/lrsp-2013-1, 2013.
Usoskin, I. G. and Kovaltsov, G. A.: Cosmic ray induced ionization in the atmosphere: Full modeling and practical applications, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D21206, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007150, 2006.
Usoskin, I. G., Alanko-Huotari, K., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Mursula, K.: Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays: Monthly reconstruction for 1951–2004, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A12108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011250, 2005.
Usoskin, I. G., Desorgher, L., Velinov, P., Storini, M., Flückiger, E. O., Bütikofer, R., and Kovaltsov, G. A.: Ionization of the earth's atmosphere by solar and galactic cosmic rays, Acta Geophys., 57, 88–101, https://doi.org/10.2478/s11600-008-0019-9, 2009.
Usoskin, I. G., Kovaltsov, G. A., and Mironova, I. A.: Cosmic ray induced ionization model CRAC:CRII: An extension to the upper atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D10302, 2010.
Usoskin, I. G., Bazilevskaya, G. A., and Kovaltsov, G. A.: Solar modulation parameter for cosmic rays since 1936 reconstructed from ground-based neutron monitors and ionization chambers, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A02104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA016105, 2011.
Usoskin, I. G., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov, G. A., Thébault, E., and Khokhlov, A.: Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity, Astron. Astrophys., 562, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423391, 2014.
Van Allen, J. A. and Frank, L. A.: Radiation Around the Earth to a Radial Distance of 107,400 km, Nature, 183, 430–434, https://doi.org/10.1038/183430a0, 1959.
van de Kamp, M., Seppälä, A., Clilverd, M. A., Rodger, C. J., Verronen, P. T., and Whittaker, I. C.: A model providing long-term datasets of energetic electron precipitation during geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 12520–12540, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024212, 2016.
Verronen, P. T. and Lehmann, R.: Analysis and parameterisation of ionic reactions affecting middle atmospheric HOx and NOy during solar proton events, Ann. Geophys., 31, 909–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-909-2013, 2013.
Verronen, P. T., Seppälä, A., Kyrölä, E., Tamminen, J., Pickett, H. M., and Turunen, E.: Production of odd hydrogen in the mesosphere during the January 2005 solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24811, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028115, 2006.
Verronen, P. T., Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Stiller, G. P., von Clarmann, T., Enell, C.-F., Turunen, E., and Tamminen, J.: About the Increase of HNO3 in the Stratopause Region During the Halloween 2003 Solar Proton Event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20809, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035312, 2008.
Verronen, P. T., Santee, M. L., Manney, G. L., Lehmann, R., Salmi, S.-M., and Seppälä, A.: Nitric acid enhancements in the mesosphere during the January 2005 and December 2006 solar proton events, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D17301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016075, 2011a.
Verronen, P. T., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Wang, S.: First evidence of mesospheric hydroxyl response to electron precipitation from the radiation belts, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D07307, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014965, 2011b.
Vieira, L. E. A. and Solanki, S. K.: Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to millenia, Astron. Astrophys., 509, A100, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/200913276, 2010.
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, L10, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011.
Viereck, R., Puga, L., McMullin, D., Judge, D., Weber, M., and Tobiska, W. K.: The Mg II index: A proxy for solar EUV, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1343–1346, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012551, 2001.
Vitt, F. M. and Jackman, C. H.: A comparison of sources of odd nitrogen production from 1974 through 1993 in the Earth's middle atmosphere as calculated using a two-dimensional model, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 6729–6739, 1996.
von Clarmann, T., Glatthor, N., Höpfner, M., Kellmann, S., Ruhnke, R., Stiller, G. P., Fischer, H., Funke, B., Gil-López, S., and López-Puertas, M.: Experimental Evidence of Perturbed Odd Hydrogen and Chlorine Chemistry After the October 2003 Solar Proton Events, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S45, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011053, 2005.
von Clarmann, T., Funke, B., López-Puertas, M., Kellmann, S., Linden, A., Stiller, G. P., Jackman, C. H., and Harvey, V. L.: The Solar Proton Events in 2012 as Observed by MIPAS, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50119, 2013.
Wang, Y.-M., Lean, J. L., and Sheeley, Jr., N. R.: Modeling the Sun's Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713, Astrophys. J., 625, 522–538, https://doi.org/10.1086/429689, 2005.
Watkins, N. W., Credgington, D., Hnat, B., Chapman, S. C., Freeman, M. P., and Greenhough, J.: Towards Synthesis of Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Scaling Exponents: A Fractional Lévy Motion Model, Space Sci. Rev., 121, 271–284, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-006-4578-2, 2005.
Weeks, L. H., Cuikay, R. S., and Corbin, J. R.: Ozone Measurements in the Mesosphere During The Solar Proton Event of 2 November 1969, J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1138–1142, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<1138:OMITMD>2.0.CO;2, 1972.
Wenzler, T., Solanki, S. K., and Krivova, N. A.: Can surface magnetic fields reproduce solar irradiance variations in cycles 22 and 23?, Astron. Astrophys., 432, 1057–1061, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20041956, 2005.
Whittaker, I. C., Gamble, R. J., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Sauvaud, J.-A.: Determining the spectra of radiation belt electron losses: Fitting DEMETER electron flux observations for typical and storm times, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 118, 7611–7623, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019228, 2013.
Whittaker, I. C., Clilverd, M. A., and Rodger, C. J.: Characteristics of precipitating energetic electron fluxes relative to the plasmapause during geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 119, 8784–8800, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020446, 2014a.
Whittaker, I. C., Rodger, C. J., Clilverd, M. A., and Sauvaud, J.-A.: The effects and correction of the geometric factor for the POES/MEPED electron flux instrument using a multisatellite comparison, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 119, 6386–6404, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020021, 2014b.
Winkler, H., Kazeminejad, S., Sinnhuber, M., Kallenrode, M.-B., and Notholt, J.: Conversion of mesospheric HCl into active chlorine during the solar proton event in July 2000 in the northern polar region, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00I03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011587, 2009.
Woods, T. N., Tobiska, W. K., Rottman, G. J., and Worden, J. R.: Improved solar Lyman α irradiance modeling from 1947 through 1999 based on UARS observations, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 27195–27216, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JA000051, 2000.
Woods, T. N., Eparvier, F. G., Bailey, S. M., Chamberlin, P. C., Lean, J., Rottman, G. J., Solomon, S. C., Tobiska, W. K., and Woodraska, D. L.: Solar EUV Experiment (SEE): Mission overview and first results, J. Geophys. Res.-Space, 110, A01312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JA010765, 2005.
Woollings, T., Lockwood, M., Masato, G., Bell, C., and Gray, L.: Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, A6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044601, 2010.
Yando, K., Millan, R. M., Green, J. C., and Evans, D. S.: A Monte Carlo simulation of the NOAA POES Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector instrument, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A10231, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JA016671, 2011.
Yeates, A. R., Nandy, D., and Mackay, D. H.: Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection- versus Diffusion-dominated Solar Convection Zones, Astrophys. J., 673, 544–556, https://doi.org/10.1086/524352, 2008.
Yeo, K. L., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., and Glassmeier, K. H.: Reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance from 1974 to 2013 based on KPVT, SoHO/MDI and SDO/HMI observations, Astron. Astrophys., 570, A85, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201423628, 2014.
Yeo, K. L., Ball, W. T., Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., Unruh, Y. C., and Morrill, J.: UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 6055–6070, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021277, 2015.
Zadorozhny, A., Tuchkov, G., Kikhtenko, V., Laštovičcka, J., Boška, J., and Novák, A.: Nitric oxide and lower ionosphere quantities during solar particle events of October 1989 after rocket and ground-based measurements, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 54, 183–192, https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9169(92)90127-7, 1992.
Zadorozhny, A. M., Kikhtenko, V. N., Kokin, G. A., Tuchkov, G. A., Tyutin, A. A., Chizhov, A. F., and Shtirkov, O. V.: Middle atmosphere response to the solar proton events of October 1989 using the results of rocket measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 21059–21069, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JD03194, 1994.
Short summary
The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report is described. This dataset provides the radiative and particle input of solar variability on a daily basis from 1850 through to 2300. With this dataset a better representation of natural climate variability with respect to the output of the Sun is provided which provides the most sophisticated and comprehensive respresentation of solar variability that has been used in climate model simulations so far.
The solar forcing dataset for climate model experiments performed for the upcoming IPCC report...
