Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-232
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-232
Submitted as: model description paper
 | 
23 Jan 2025
Submitted as: model description paper |  | 23 Jan 2025
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Projecting management-relevant change of undeveloped coastal barriers with the Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) v1.0

Ian R. B. Reeves, Andrew D. Ashton, Erika E. Lentz, Christopher R. Sherwood, Davina L. Passeri, and Sara L. Zeigler

Abstract. Models of coastal barrier geomorphic and ecologic change are valuable tools for understanding and predicting when, where, and how barriers evolve and transition between ecogeomorphic states. Few existing models of barrier systems are designed to operate over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices (i.e., decades/kilometers, referred to herein as “mesoscales”), incorporate important ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and provide probabilistic projections of future change. Here, we present a new numerical model designed to address these gaps by explicitly yet efficiently simulating coupled aeolian, marine, vegetation, and shoreline components of barrier evolution over spatiotemporal scales relevant to management. The Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) simulates subaerial ecomorphologic change of undeveloped barrier systems over kilometers and decades using meter-scale spatial resolution and weekly time step. MEEB applies simplified parameterizations to represent and couple key ecogeomorphic processes: dune growth, vegetation expansion and mortality, beach and foredune erosion, barrier overwash, and shoreline and shoreface change. The model is parameterized and calibrated with observed elevation, vegetation, and water level data for a case study site of North Core Banks, NC, USA; simulated ecogeomorphic change in model hindcasts agrees well with observations, demonstrating both favorable skill scores and qualitatively correct behavior. We also describe an additional model framework for producing probabilistic projections that account for uncertainties related to future forcing conditions and intrinsic stochastic dynamics and demonstrate the probabilistic framework’s utility with example forecast simulations. As a mesoscale model, MEEB is designed to investigate questions about future barrier ecogeomorphic change of moderate complexity, offering semi-qualitative predictions and semi-quantitative explanations. For example, MEEB can be used to investigate how climate-induced shifts in ecological composition may alter the likelihood of morphologic impacts or to generate probabilistic projections of ecogeomorphic state change.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Share
Ian R. B. Reeves, Andrew D. Ashton, Erika E. Lentz, Christopher R. Sherwood, Davina L. Passeri, and Sara L. Zeigler

Status: open (until 20 Mar 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CEC1: 'Comment on gmd-2024-232 - No compliance with the policy of the journal', Juan Antonio Añel, 12 Feb 2025 reply
    • EC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Andy Wickert, 18 Feb 2025 reply
      • CEC2: 'Reply on EC1', Juan Antonio Añel, 18 Feb 2025 reply
Ian R. B. Reeves, Andrew D. Ashton, Erika E. Lentz, Christopher R. Sherwood, Davina L. Passeri, and Sara L. Zeigler

Model code and software

Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier Model (MEEB) v1.0 Ian R. B. Reeves https://doi.org/10.5066/P13N6RHA

Ian R. B. Reeves, Andrew D. Ashton, Erika E. Lentz, Christopher R. Sherwood, Davina L. Passeri, and Sara L. Zeigler

Viewed

Total article views: 143 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
108 24 11 143 5 6
  • HTML: 108
  • PDF: 24
  • XML: 11
  • Total: 143
  • BibTeX: 5
  • EndNote: 6
Views and downloads (calculated since 23 Jan 2025)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 23 Jan 2025)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 137 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 137 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 22 Feb 2025
Download
Short summary
We describe a new model of coastal barrier ecogeomorphic change that operates over spatiotemporal scales congruous with effective management practices, incorporates key ecogeomorphic feedbacks, and provides probabilistic projections. The model skillfully captures important barrier dynamics through robust data integration and calibration of relatively simple model parameterizations, and can be used to understand and predict when, where, and how barriers evolve to inform decision-making processes.
Share