Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-146
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-146
Submitted as: development and technical paper
11 Jul 2022
Submitted as: development and technical paper | 11 Jul 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Data-driven Global Subseasonal Forecast Model (GSFM v1.0) for intraseasonal oscillation components

Chuhan Lu1, Dingan Huang1, Yichen Shen1, and Fei Xin2 Chuhan Lu et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, China
  • 2Shanghai Climate Center, China

Abstract. As a challenge in the construction of a “seamless forecast” system, improving the prediction skills of subseasonal forecasts is a key issue for meteorologists. In view of the evolution characteristics of numerical models and recent deep learning models for subseasonal forecasts, as forecast times increase, forecast results tend to become intraseasonal low-frequency components, which are essential to the change in general circulation on the subseasonal timescale as well as persistent extreme weather. In this paper, the Global Subseasonal Forecast Model (GSFM v1.0) first extracted the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) components of atmospheric signals and used an improved deep learning model (SE-ResNet) to train and predict the ISO components of geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) and temperature at 850 hPa (T850). The results show that the 10–30 day prediction performance of the model used in this paper is better than that of the model trained directly with original data. Compared with other models/methods, the SE-ResNet model has a good ability to depict the subseasonal evolution of the ISO components of Z500 and T850. In particular, although the CFSv2 results have a better prediction performance through 10 days, the SE-ResNet model is substantially superior to CFSv2 through 10–30 day, especially in the middle and high latitudes. The SE-ResNet model also has a better effect in predicting 3–8 planetary waves, which leads to the difference in model prediction performance in extratropical areas. A case study shows that the SE-ResNet model depicted the phase change and propagation characteristics of planetary waves well. Thus, the application of data- driven subseasonal forecasts of atmospheric ISO components may shed light on improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.

Chuhan Lu et al.

Status: open (until 05 Sep 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-146', Chiem van Straaten, 08 Aug 2022 reply

Chuhan Lu et al.

Chuhan Lu et al.

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Short summary
As a challenge in the construction of a “seamless forecast” system, improving the prediction skills of subseasonal forecasts is a key issue for meteorologists. In this study, we developed a new subseasonal forecast model based on deep-learning. And this model performs better on the 10–30 day prediction of the intraseasonal oscillation components of meteorological elements than the CFSv2 subseasonal results to some extent.