Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-317
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-317

Submitted as: model description paper 17 Feb 2020

Submitted as: model description paper | 17 Feb 2020

Review status: this preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

UFlow 1.0: A Computer Model for Projections of Urban Sprawl

André Koscianski André Koscianski
  • UTFPR, Federal Technological University of Paraná, Av. Monteiro Lobato km 4, Ponta Grossa, Paraná, Brazil

Abstract. Cities concentrate most of the world’s population and are the stage of difficult problems around logistics, economy, or quality of life, to enumerate just a few. As an object of research on itself, a urban agglomeration is difficult to characterize; it is both an ensemble of various disconnected heterogeneous elements, and the product of numerous actions and effects between those elements. Studies of the structure and the functioning of cities date back to one century ago, with an increased interest in the last decades on the phenomenon of expansion and all of its impacts.

Models of city growth face the complex nature of this system and are approximative. Different representations seek to balance characteristics as data availability, level of detail of internal processes, or precision. The uflow model approaches the problem with the metaphor of an abstract field, which evolves over time and signals the conversion from empty to urban cells. The procedure for calibration adjusts parameters according to the history of the region under study, and is able to capture local conditions. The implementation takes advantage of parallel hardware, and the simulation can be performed in reverse mode, a feature that can be useful to verify the adaptation of the tool to a given scenario, or to compute approximations of the past state of a region.

Tests confirmed the expected behaviour of the algorithms, and good agreement with actual data. The flexibility of the concept of intensity of urbanization is open to the integration of different data sources into the model, and the possibility of simulating their evolution over time.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

André Koscianski

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

André Koscianski

Model code and software

UFlow 1.0 (code, makefile, data) A. Koscianski https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3532951

André Koscianski

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This preprint has been withdrawn.

Short summary
Urban sprawl is driven by an ensemble of forces and variables that compose a complex system, difficult to predict. This paper introduces the UFlow 1.0 simulator, based on a diffusion model and a Cellular Automata structure. A procedure adjusts a matrix of coefficients, making the model sensitive to local differences of growth speed. The software can also compute reverse predictions, and the paper indicates possible adaptations with different types of input data, metrics and algorithmic rules.