An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves

Stegehuis, A. I.; Vautard, R.; Ciais, P.; Teuling, A. J.; Miralles, D. G.; Wild, M.

doi:10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015

Articles | Volume 8, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 8, issue 7

Methods for assessment of models

|

29 Jul 2015

Methods for assessment of models |

| 29 Jul 2015

An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves

A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild

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Views and downloads (calculated since 19 Nov 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2014	55	41	2	98
Dec 2014	19	14	2	35
Jan 2015	5	24	1	30
Feb 2015	12	4	4	20
Mar 2015	14	8	0	22
Apr 2015	19	9	3	31
May 2015	3	2	0	5
Jun 2015	6	2	2	10
Jul 2015	53	37	2	92
Aug 2015	54	66	1	121
Sep 2015	24	14	1	39
Oct 2015	30	16	1	47
Nov 2015	27	7	3	37
Dec 2015	4	9	2	15
Jan 2016	42	15	0	57
Feb 2016	31	11	1	43
Mar 2016	27	14	0	41
Apr 2016	17	8	0	25
May 2016	19	14	7	40
Jun 2016	14	6	3	23
Jul 2016	18	16	7	41
Aug 2016	15	8	3	26
Sep 2016	10	12	3	25
Oct 2016	15	10	5	30
Nov 2016	12	3	1	16
Dec 2016	5	3	2	10
Jan 2017	20	8	2	30
Feb 2017	27	14	6	47
Mar 2017	35	16	5	56
Apr 2017	101	13	8	122
May 2017	51	20	6	77
Jun 2017	44	15	8	67
Jul 2017	23	4	2	29
Aug 2017	6	10	0	16
Sep 2017	10	7	0	17
Oct 2017	12	10	1	23
Nov 2017	12	8	2	22
Dec 2017	11	7	0	18
Jan 2018	9	13	0	22
Feb 2018	22	4	0	26
Mar 2018	24	5	0	29
Apr 2018	29	4	0	33
May 2018	25	10	2	37
Jun 2018	31	8	0	39
Jul 2018	30	12	0	42
Aug 2018	33	7	0	40
Sep 2018	30	10	0	40
Oct 2018	36	9	0	45
Nov 2018	59	12	2	73
Dec 2018	30	7	0	37
Jan 2019	32	12	0	44
Feb 2019	32	9	0	41
Mar 2019	21	8	0	29
Apr 2019	18	15	1	34
May 2019	18	3	0	21
Jun 2019	22	11	0	33
Jul 2019	30	10	0	40
Aug 2019	34	6	0	40
Sep 2019	14	10	0	24
Oct 2019	21	8	0	29
Nov 2019	15	11	0	26
Dec 2019	28	7	0	35
Jan 2020	40	6	1	47
Feb 2020	16	4	1	21
Mar 2020	22	8	0	30
Apr 2020	14	10	0	24
May 2020	23	10	0	33
Jun 2020	24	8	0	32
Jul 2020	50	32	29	111
Aug 2020	10	1	2	13
Sep 2020	19	8	0	27
Oct 2020	21	3	0	24
Nov 2020	26	5	0	31
Dec 2020	31	9	0	40
Jan 2021	47	11	0	58
Feb 2021	10	11	0	21
Mar 2021	13	6	0	19
Apr 2021	12	13	0	25
May 2021	9	10	1	20
Jun 2021	9	3	0	12
Jul 2021	15	9	1	25
Aug 2021	23	9	1	33
Sep 2021	13	11	0	24
Oct 2021	12	36	0	48
Nov 2021	25	38	0	63
Dec 2021	21	9	1	31
Jan 2022	27	16	1	44
Feb 2022	18	7	1	26
Mar 2022	15	8	1	24
Apr 2022	43	12	2	57
May 2022	48	7	1	56
Jun 2022	37	5	0	42
Jul 2022	32	11	0	43
Aug 2022	53	15	1	69
Sep 2022	43	10	2	55
Oct 2022	47	7	1	55
Nov 2022	50	7	1	58
Dec 2022	43	7	0	50
Jan 2023	41	16	0	57
Feb 2023	37	12	0	49
Mar 2023	49	8	0	57
Apr 2023	43	8	1	52
May 2023	41	13	1	55
Jun 2023	43	13	0	56
Jul 2023	47	8	0	55
Aug 2023	44	5	2	51
Sep 2023	39	8	1	48
Oct 2023	52	15	5	72
Nov 2023	28	5	0	33
Dec 2023	44	12	3	59
Jan 2024	39	4	0	43
Feb 2024	44	13	2	59
Mar 2024	56	14	3	73
Apr 2024	55	9	1	65
May 2024	30	14	12	56
Jun 2024	48	11	3	62
Jul 2024	15	7	3	25
Aug 2024	27	2	3	32
Sep 2024	9	6	0	15
Oct 2024	11	4	1	16
Nov 2024	13	6	2	21
Dec 2024	22	10	1	33
Jan 2025	21	7	3	31
Feb 2025	25	6	3	34
Mar 2025	28	10	0	38
Apr 2025	23	8	1	32
May 2025	19	6	0	25
Jun 2025	43	17	0	60
Jul 2025	34	20	2	56
Aug 2025	43	17	2	62
Sep 2025	78	22	3	103
Oct 2025	31	26	2	59
Nov 2025	41	25	8	74
Dec 2025	28	27	1	56
Jan 2026	17	3	2	22

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 19 Nov 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2014	55	41	2	98
Dec 2014	19	14	2	35
Jan 2015	5	24	1	30
Feb 2015	12	4	4	20
Mar 2015	14	8	0	22
Apr 2015	19	9	3	31
May 2015	3	2	0	5
Jun 2015	6	2	2	10
Jul 2015	53	37	2	92
Aug 2015	54	66	1	121
Sep 2015	24	14	1	39
Oct 2015	30	16	1	47
Nov 2015	27	7	3	37
Dec 2015	4	9	2	15
Jan 2016	42	15	0	57
Feb 2016	31	11	1	43
Mar 2016	27	14	0	41
Apr 2016	17	8	0	25
May 2016	19	14	7	40
Jun 2016	14	6	3	23
Jul 2016	18	16	7	41
Aug 2016	15	8	3	26
Sep 2016	10	12	3	25
Oct 2016	15	10	5	30
Nov 2016	12	3	1	16
Dec 2016	5	3	2	10
Jan 2017	20	8	2	30
Feb 2017	27	14	6	47
Mar 2017	35	16	5	56
Apr 2017	101	13	8	122
May 2017	51	20	6	77
Jun 2017	44	15	8	67
Jul 2017	23	4	2	29
Aug 2017	6	10	0	16
Sep 2017	10	7	0	17
Oct 2017	12	10	1	23
Nov 2017	12	8	2	22
Dec 2017	11	7	0	18
Jan 2018	9	13	0	22
Feb 2018	22	4	0	26
Mar 2018	24	5	0	29
Apr 2018	29	4	0	33
May 2018	25	10	2	37
Jun 2018	31	8	0	39
Jul 2018	30	12	0	42
Aug 2018	33	7	0	40
Sep 2018	30	10	0	40
Oct 2018	36	9	0	45
Nov 2018	59	12	2	73
Dec 2018	30	7	0	37
Jan 2019	32	12	0	44
Feb 2019	32	9	0	41
Mar 2019	21	8	0	29
Apr 2019	18	15	1	34
May 2019	18	3	0	21
Jun 2019	22	11	0	33
Jul 2019	30	10	0	40
Aug 2019	34	6	0	40
Sep 2019	14	10	0	24
Oct 2019	21	8	0	29
Nov 2019	15	11	0	26
Dec 2019	28	7	0	35
Jan 2020	40	6	1	47
Feb 2020	16	4	1	21
Mar 2020	22	8	0	30
Apr 2020	14	10	0	24
May 2020	23	10	0	33
Jun 2020	24	8	0	32
Jul 2020	50	32	29	111
Aug 2020	10	1	2	13
Sep 2020	19	8	0	27
Oct 2020	21	3	0	24
Nov 2020	26	5	0	31
Dec 2020	31	9	0	40
Jan 2021	47	11	0	58
Feb 2021	10	11	0	21
Mar 2021	13	6	0	19
Apr 2021	12	13	0	25
May 2021	9	10	1	20
Jun 2021	9	3	0	12
Jul 2021	15	9	1	25
Aug 2021	23	9	1	33
Sep 2021	13	11	0	24
Oct 2021	12	36	0	48
Nov 2021	25	38	0	63
Dec 2021	21	9	1	31
Jan 2022	27	16	1	44
Feb 2022	18	7	1	26
Mar 2022	15	8	1	24
Apr 2022	43	12	2	57
May 2022	48	7	1	56
Jun 2022	37	5	0	42
Jul 2022	32	11	0	43
Aug 2022	53	15	1	69
Sep 2022	43	10	2	55
Oct 2022	47	7	1	55
Nov 2022	50	7	1	58
Dec 2022	43	7	0	50
Jan 2023	41	16	0	57
Feb 2023	37	12	0	49
Mar 2023	49	8	0	57
Apr 2023	43	8	1	52
May 2023	41	13	1	55
Jun 2023	43	13	0	56
Jul 2023	47	8	0	55
Aug 2023	44	5	2	51
Sep 2023	39	8	1	48
Oct 2023	52	15	5	72
Nov 2023	28	5	0	33
Dec 2023	44	12	3	59
Jan 2024	39	4	0	43
Feb 2024	44	13	2	59
Mar 2024	56	14	3	73
Apr 2024	55	9	1	65
May 2024	30	14	12	56
Jun 2024	48	11	3	62
Jul 2024	15	7	3	25
Aug 2024	27	2	3	32
Sep 2024	9	6	0	15
Oct 2024	11	4	1	16
Nov 2024	13	6	2	21
Dec 2024	22	10	1	33
Jan 2025	21	7	3	31
Feb 2025	25	6	3	34
Mar 2025	28	10	0	38
Apr 2025	23	8	1	32
May 2025	19	6	0	25
Jun 2025	43	17	0	60
Jul 2025	34	20	2	56
Aug 2025	43	17	2	62
Sep 2025	78	22	3	103
Oct 2025	31	26	2	59
Nov 2025	41	25	8	74
Dec 2025	28	27	1	56
Jan 2026	17	3	2	22

Latest update: 10 Jan 2026

Short summary

Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes such as heat wave conditions. We use a regional climate model with different atmospheric physics schemes to simulate the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. The five best-performing and diverse physics scheme combinations may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change in summer in Europe.