Articles | Volume 18, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8679-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8679-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
18 Nov 2025
Development and technical paper |
| 18 Nov 2025
| 18 Nov 2025
A computationally efficient method to model similar and alternate stratospheric aerosol injection experiments using prescribed aerosols in a lower-complexity version of the same model: a case study using CESM(CAM) and CESM(WACCM)
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Daniel Pflüger
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Simone Lingbeek
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Claudia E. Wieners
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Michiel L. J. Baatsen
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
René R. Wijngaard
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Meike de Nooij, Jasper de Jong, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Claudia Elisabeth Wieners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4133, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Winter storms outside the tropics dominate extreme wind and precipitation events in the so-called storm track regions. Under global warming, storm tracks can shift location. In general, wind extremes in storm tracks become less frequent under global warming, but precipitation extremes more frequent. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SA), a possible tool to artificially reduce global warming, reverts the overall trend on extremes, but not perfectly: regional shifts remain.
Jasper de Jong, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Aarnout J. van Delden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1259, 2023
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Tropical cyclones often embed a ring-shaped vorticity tower, instead of a centre maximum. Inspired to identify mechanisms in the conservation of such a vorticity structure, we examined the vorticity budget in a simulation of hurricane Irma (2017) near lifetime-peak intensity. Hurricane Irma persisted as a category five hurricane for three consecutive days. We find that vertical exchange of momentum by diabatic heating compensates the advective vorticity loss and eddy activity plays a minor role.
Aris Kwadijk, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Faezeh M. Nick, Joseph M. Shea, Jakob F. Steiner, René R. Wijngaard, and Walter W. Immerzeel
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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The Himalayas supply water to millions of people downstream, yet high-altitude rainfall remains poorly understood. Using thirteen years of data from weather stations across Nepal's Langtang Valley, we found that during the monsoon the moist atmosphere causes rainfall to be highly sensitive to topography. We show how precipitation-elevation gradients shift during the day. This shift is captured in a numerical relation, that can serve to validate weather models.
Meike de Nooij, Jasper de Jong, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Claudia Elisabeth Wieners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4133, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Winter storms outside the tropics dominate extreme wind and precipitation events in the so-called storm track regions. Under global warming, storm tracks can shift location. In general, wind extremes in storm tracks become less frequent under global warming, but precipitation extremes more frequent. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SA), a possible tool to artificially reduce global warming, reverts the overall trend on extremes, but not perfectly: regional shifts remain.
Daniel J. Lunt, Nicky M. Wright, Bram Vaes, Ulrich Salzmann, James W. B. Rae, Thomas Hickler, David K. Hutchinson, Julia Brugger, Jiang Zhu, Sebastian Steinig, A. Nele Meckler, Gordon N. Inglis, David Evans, Agatha M. de Boer, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Natalie Burls, Yurui Zhang, Appy Sluijs, Tammo Reichgelt, Igor Niezgodzki, Katrin Meissner, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Fanni D. Kelemen, Matthew Huber, David R. Greenwood, Mattias Green, Flavia Boscolo-Galazzo, Manuel Tobias Blau, and Michiel Baatsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6143–6166, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6143-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6143-2026, 2026
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The early Eocene, about 50 million years ago, was a super-warm period of Earth's history, with high concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Here, we provide a framework and experimental design for climate modellers to carry out a coordinated project, simulating this period. This is the second phase of this project, and here we provide updated maps of the Earth's mountains and ocean floor, and vegetation, to enable more accurate modelling.
Aleksandr M. Fedorov, M. Femke De Jong, Claudia E. Wieners, Elodie Duyck, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 22, 1819–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1819-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1819-2026, 2026
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Deep ocean mixing in the North Atlantic helps power major currents, but it is weakening as the surface warms. We used a high-resolution ocean model and separate experiments that added either extra heat loss, extra wind, or both during Greenland storm events. Extra heat loss caused most of the deep mixing, but strong winds also helped by mixing salty water upward and removing the fresh surface layer early in winter. This wind effect may modulate the future decline of deep mixing.
Aniket Mitra, Steven Goderis, Niels J. de Winter, Michiel Baatsen, Béatrice A. Ledésert, Guillaume Dupont-Nivet, Philippe Claeys, and Inigo A. Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1393, 2026
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South Asian Monsoon affects more than 2 billion people and regional biodiversity but may be vulnerable to rising CO2. This study reconstructs seasonally resolved climate at ~38 Ma, linked to early monsoon development, using oyster shells from western India and climate modelling. Results show year-round high temperature with weak seasonality and rainfall extending beyond summer into post-monsoon and winter months. Regional seasonality of tropical climate was likely influenced by palaeogeography.
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
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We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
Marjolein Ribberink, Hylke de Vries, Nadia Bloemendaal, Michiel Baatsen, and Erik van Meijgaard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 37–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-37-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-37-2026, 2026
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Hurricane Ophelia of October 2017 is a rare example of a strong post-tropical cyclone impacting Europe, an event that is expected to occur more frequently as our climate warms. This study examines the changes in structure, behaviour, and extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia under alternate climate forcing using a regional model. We find that in warmer climates the storm becomes stronger, larger, and maintains the characteristics of a tropical cyclone for longer than in cooler climates.
René R. Wijngaard, Willem Jan van de Berg, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Adam R. Herrington, and Xavier J. Levine
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1241–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1241-2025, 2025
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We used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate present-day and future Arctic temperature and precipitation extremes using global grids (~111 km) with and without regional refinement (~28 km) and a storyline approach. Refined grids generally perform better for precipitation extremes, while unrefined grids perform better for temperature extremes. Future projections show increases in high temperature and wet precipitation extremes and decreases in low temperature extremes.
Gideon Futerman, Mira Adhikari, Alistair Duffey, Yuanchao Fan, Jessica Gurevitch, Peter Irvine, and Claudia Wieners
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 939–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, 2025
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Francesco Guardamagna, Claudia Wieners, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 201–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-201-2025, 2025
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Artificial intelligence (AI) has recently shown promising results in ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) forecasting, outperforming traditional models. Yet AI models deliver accurate predictions without showing the underlying mechanisms. Our study examines a specific AI model, the reservoir computer (RC). Our results show that the RC is less sensitive to initial perturbations than the traditional Zebiak–Cane (ZC) model. This reduced sensitivity can explain the RC's superior skills.
Jonna van Mourik, Hylke de Vries, and Michiel Baatsen
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 413–429, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-413-2025, 2025
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Dennis H. A. Vermeulen, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Clim. Past, 21, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-95-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-95-2025, 2025
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Late Eocene summers, 34 million years ago, were hot on Antarctica, with temperatures up to 30 °C. We also know that during this period the first Antarctic ice sheet formed. Since climate models do not show the transition from this warm climate to ice sheet formation accurately, we imposed regional ice sheets onto the continent in a realistic climate and show that these ice sheets do not melt away. This suggests that the initiation of ice sheet growth might have happened during warmer periods.
Claudia Elisabeth Wieners and Guðmundur Hálfdanarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2971–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, 2024
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After the 1783 Laki eruption, excess mortality in Iceland was one-sixth of the population, traditionally explained by famine due to livestock loss. Since 1970, it has been suggested that 1) fluorine poisoning may have contributed to mortality in Iceland and 2) air pollution might have caused excess deaths in both Iceland and Europe. Reviewing contemporary Icelandic demographic data, air pollution simulations, and medical records on fluorosis, we show that evidence for both hypotheses is weak.
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
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While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Arthur Merlijn Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Frank M. Selten, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1037–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024, 2024
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We might be able to constrain uncertainty in future climate projections by investigating variations in the climate of the past. In this study, we investigate the interactions of climate variability between the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and the North Pacific in a warm past climate – the mid-Pliocene, a period roughly 3 million years ago. Using model simulations, we find that, although the variability in El Niño was reduced, the variability in the North Pacific atmosphere was not.
Arthur Merlijn Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Aarnout J. van Delden, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 395–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024, 2024
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The mid-Pliocene, a geological period around 3 million years ago, is sometimes considered the best analogue for near-future climate. It saw similar CO2 concentrations to the present-day but also a slightly different geography. In this study, we use climate model simulations and find that the Northern Hemisphere winter responds very differently to increased CO2 or to the mid-Pliocene geography. Our results weaken the potential of the mid-Pliocene as a future climate analogue.
Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 20, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-77-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-77-2024, 2024
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This work introduces the possibility and consequences of monsoons on Antarctica in the warm Eocene climate. We suggest that such a monsoonal climate can be important to understand conditions in Antarctica prior to large-scale glaciation. We can explain seemingly contradictory indications of ice and vegetation on the continent through regional variability. In addition, we provide a new mechanism through which most of Antarctica remained ice-free through a wide range of global climatic changes.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
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We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Jasper de Jong, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Aarnout J. van Delden
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1259, 2023
Preprint archived
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Tropical cyclones often embed a ring-shaped vorticity tower, instead of a centre maximum. Inspired to identify mechanisms in the conservation of such a vorticity structure, we examined the vorticity budget in a simulation of hurricane Irma (2017) near lifetime-peak intensity. Hurricane Irma persisted as a category five hurricane for three consecutive days. We find that vertical exchange of momentum by diabatic heating compensates the advective vorticity loss and eddy activity plays a minor role.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
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We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michael A. Kliphuis, Arthur M. Oldeman, and Julia E. Weiffenbach
Clim. Past, 18, 657–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-657-2022, 2022
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The Pliocene was a period during which atmospheric CO2 was similar to today (i.e. ~ 400 ppm). We present the results of model simulations carried out within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) using the CESM 1.0.5. We find a climate that is much warmer than today, with augmented polar warming, increased precipitation, and strongly reduced sea ice cover. In addition, several leading modes of variability in temperature show an altered behaviour.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
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Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
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Short summary
Injection of reflective sulfate aerosols high in the atmosphere is a proposed method to mitigate global warming. Climate simulations with injection are more expensive than standard future projections. We propose a method that dynamically scales the forcing fields based on pre-existing full-complexity data. This opens up possibilities for ensemble generation, new scenarios and higher resolution runs. We show that our method works for multiple model versions, injection scenarios and resolutions.
Injection of reflective sulfate aerosols high in the atmosphere is a proposed method to mitigate...
