Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 18, issue 21
Articles | Volume 18, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8071-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8071-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 21
Development and technical paper
 | 
30 Oct 2025
Development and technical paper |  | 30 Oct 2025

Combining empirical and mechanistic understanding of spruce bark beetle outbreak dynamics in the LPJ-GUESS (v4.1, r13130) vegetation model

Fredrik Lagergren, Anna Maria Jönsson, Mats Lindeskog, and Thomas A. M. Pugh

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Short summary
The European spruce bark beetle (SBB) has, in recent years, been the most important disturbance agent in many European forests. We implemented a SBB module in a dynamic vegetation model and calibrated it against observations from Sweden, Switzerland, Austria and France. The start and duration of outbreaks triggered by storm damage and the increased damage driven by recent warm and dry periods were reasonably well simulated, although the spread was reflected in uncertain parameter estimates.
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