Articles | Volume 17, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627
Guillaume Marie
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ UP Saclay, 91191 Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Faculty of Science, A-LIFE, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 BT Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Hervé Jactel
INRAE, University of Bordeaux, UMR Biogeco, 33612 Cestas, France
Gunnar Petter
ETH Zürich, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
Maxime Cailleret
INRAE, Aix-Marseille Univ, UMR RECOVER, 13182 Aix-en-Provence, France
Matthew J. McGrath
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ UP Saclay, 91191 Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Vladislav Bastrikov
Science Partner, Paris, France
Josefine Ghattas
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace – Sciences du climat (IPSL), 75105 Jussieu, Paris, France
Bertrand Guenet
Laboratoire de Géologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS, PSL Research University, IPSL, 75005 Paris, France
Anne Sofie Lansø
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus Universitet, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
Kim Naudts
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Aude Valade
Eco & Sols, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, 34060 Institut Agro, IRD, Montpellier, France
Chao Yue
State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, Xianyang, China
Faculty of Science, A-LIFE, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 BT Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Related authors
Guillaume Marie, B. Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Cecile Dardel, Thuy Le Toan, Alexandre Bouvet, Stéphane Mermoz, Ludovic Villard, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2599–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most Earth system models make use of vegetation maps to initialize a simulation at global scale. Satellite-based biomass map estimates for Africa were used to estimate cover fractions for the 15 land cover classes. This study successfully demonstrates that satellite-based biomass maps can be used to better constrain vegetation maps. Applying this approach at the global scale would increase confidence in assessments of present-day biomass stocks.
Lucía Caudillo, Birte Rörup, Martin Heinritzi, Guillaume Marie, Mario Simon, Andrea C. Wagner, Tatjana Müller, Manuel Granzin, Antonio Amorim, Farnoush Ataei, Rima Baalbaki, Barbara Bertozzi, Zoé Brasseur, Randall Chiu, Biwu Chu, Lubna Dada, Jonathan Duplissy, Henning Finkenzeller, Loïc Gonzalez Carracedo, Xu-Cheng He, Victoria Hofbauer, Weimeng Kong, Houssni Lamkaddam, Chuan P. Lee, Brandon Lopez, Naser G. A. Mahfouz, Vladimir Makhmutov, Hanna E. Manninen, Ruby Marten, Dario Massabò, Roy L. Mauldin, Bernhard Mentler, Ugo Molteni, Antti Onnela, Joschka Pfeifer, Maxim Philippov, Ana A. Piedehierro, Meredith Schervish, Wiebke Scholz, Benjamin Schulze, Jiali Shen, Dominik Stolzenburg, Yuri Stozhkov, Mihnea Surdu, Christian Tauber, Yee Jun Tham, Ping Tian, António Tomé, Steffen Vogt, Mingyi Wang, Dongyu S. Wang, Stefan K. Weber, André Welti, Wang Yonghong, Wu Yusheng, Marcel Zauner-Wieczorek, Urs Baltensperger, Imad El Haddad, Richard C. Flagan, Armin Hansel, Kristina Höhler, Jasper Kirkby, Markku Kulmala, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Ottmar Möhler, Harald Saathoff, Rainer Volkamer, Paul M. Winkler, Neil M. Donahue, Andreas Kürten, and Joachim Curtius
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17099–17114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We performed experiments in the CLOUD chamber at CERN at low temperatures to simulate new particle formation in the upper free troposphere (at −30 ºC and −50 ºC). We measured the particle and gas phase and found that most of the compounds present in the gas phase are detected as well in the particle phase. The major compounds in the particles are C8–10 and C18–20. Specifically, we showed that C5 and C15 compounds are detected in a mixed system with isoprene and α-pinene at −30 ºC, 20 % RH.
Lei Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Yitong Yao, Daniel Goll, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Isabel Martínez Cano, Arthur Fendrich, Laurent Li, Hui Yang, Sassan Saatchi, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4915–4933, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4915-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study enhances the accuracy of modeling the carbon dynamics of the Amazon rainforest by optimizing key model parameters based on satellite data. Using spatially varying parameters for tree mortality and photosynthesis, we improved predictions of biomass, productivity, and tree mortality. Our findings highlight the critical role of wood density and water availability in forest processes, offering insights to use in refining global carbon cycle models.
Rubaya Pervin, Scott Robeson, Mallory Barnes, Stephen Sitch, Anthony Walker, Ben Poulter, Fabienne Maignan, Qing Sun, Thomas Colligan, Sönke Zaehle, Kashif Mahmud, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Vladislav Bastrikov, Liam Bogucki, Bertrand Decharme, Christine Delire, Stefanie Falk, Akihiko Ito, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Michael O’Sullivan, Wenping Yuan, and Natasha MacBean
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2841, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Drylands contribute more than a third of the global vegetation productivity. Yet, these regions are not well represented in global vegetation models. Here, we tested how well 15 global models capture annual changes in dryland vegetation productivity. Models that didn’t have vegetation change over time or fire have lower variability in vegetation productivity. Models need better representation of grass cover types and their coverage. Our work highlights where and how these models need to improve.
Elodie Salmon, Bertrand Guenet, and Agnès Ducharne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3511, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Soil organic carbon stockage is a key process to mitigate climate change and is intertwined with soil temperature and moisture and of other secondary soil properties. This study shows the significance of secondary drivers in the relationship between soil moisture and microbial efficiency in soil organic carbon degradation. Using empirical relationships in a global ecosystem model enhanced significantly the heterogeneous spatial pattern of soil organic carbon stock and carbon dioxide fluxes.
Espoir Koudjo Gaglo, Emeline Chaste, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Olivier Roupsard, Christophe Jourdan, Sidy Sow, Nadeige Vandewalle, Frédéric Do, Daouda Ngom, and Aude Valade
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1102, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Agroforestry in the Sahel help store carbon and support food production, but land surface models struggle to capture their dynamics. We adapted the ORCHIDEE model to simulate Faidherbia albida, a tree that taps deep groundwater. This work highlights the need to integrate deep water uptake in land surface models for groundwater-dependent ecosystems, as it could enhance predictions, helping to sustain agroforestry in a changing climate.
Mathew Williams, David T. Milodowski, T. Luke Smallman, Kyle G. Dexter, Gabi C. Hegerl, Iain M. McNicol, Michael O'Sullivan, Carla M. Roesch, Casey M. Ryan, Stephen Sitch, and Aude Valade
Biogeosciences, 22, 1597–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1597-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1597-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Southern African woodlands are important in both regional and global carbon cycles. A new carbon analysis created by combining satellite data with ecosystem modelling shows that the region has a neutral C balance overall but with important spatial variations. Patterns of biomass and C balance across the region are the outcome of climate controls on production and vegetation–fire interactions, which determine the mortality of vegetation and spatial variations in vegetation function.
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, and Josefine Ghattas
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-41, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of irrigation under climate change is analyzed between 1950 and 2100. Results indicate that the influence of irrigation on evapotranspiration in irrigated areas increases in the future (compared to an historical period). Also, the effect of irrigation on water resources is also higher in the future than in the historical period. Finally, we identify areas where future hydroclimate conditions can limit irrigation, or areas where irrigation can increase tensions around water use.
Boris Ťupek, Aleksi Lehtonen, Stefano Manzoni, Elisa Bruni, Petr Baldrian, Etienne Richy, Bartosz Adamczyk, Bertrand Guenet, and Raisa Mäkipää
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3813, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explored soil microbial respiration (Rh) kinetics of low-dose and long-term N fertilization in N-limited boreal forest in connection to CH₄, and N₂O fluxes, soil, and tree C sinks. The insights show that N fertilization effects C retention in boreal forest soils through modifying Rh sensitivities to soil temperature and moisture. The key findings reveal that N-enriched soils exhibited reduced sensitivity of Rh to moisture, which on annual level contributes to enhanced soil C sequestration.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Boris Ťupek, Aleksi Lehtonen, Alla Yurova, Rose Abramoff, Bertrand Guenet, Elisa Bruni, Samuli Launiainen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Shoji Hashimoto, Xianglin Tian, Juha Heikkinen, Kari Minkkinen, and Raisa Mäkipää
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5349–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Updating the Yasso07 soil C model's dependency on decomposition with a hump-shaped Ricker moisture function improved modelled soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a catena of mineral and organic soils in boreal forest. The Ricker function, set to peak at a rate of 1 and calibrated against SOC and CO2 data using a Bayesian approach, showed a maximum in well-drained soils. Using SOC and CO2 data together with the moisture only from the topsoil humus was crucial for accurate model estimates.
Mery Ingrid Guimarães de Alencar, Rafael D. Guariento, Bertrand Guenet, Luciana S. Carneiro, Eduardo L. Voigt, and Adriano Caliman
Biogeosciences, 21, 3165–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flowers are ephemeral organs for reproduction, and their litter is functionally different from leaf litter. Flowers can affect decomposition and interact with leaf litter, influencing decomposition non-additively. We show that mixing flower and leaf litter from the Tabebuia aurea tree creates reciprocal synergistic effects on decomposition in both terrestrial and aquatic environments. We highlight that flower litter input can generate biogeochemical hotspots in terrestrial ecosystems.
Laura Sereni, Julie-Maï Paris, Isabelle Lamy, and Bertrand Guenet
SOIL, 10, 367–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the tendencies of copper (Cu) export in freshwater or accumulation in soils in Europe for the 21st century and highlight areas of importance for environmental monitoring. We develop a method combining computations of Cu partitioning coefficients between solid and solution phases with runoff data. The surfaces with potential for export or accumulation are roughly constant over the century, but the accumulation potential of Cu increases while leaching potential decreases for 2000–2095.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Peter Hoffmann, Vanessa Reinhart, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Edouard L. Davin, Christina Asmus, Benjamin Bechtel, Jürgen Böhner, Eleni Katragkou, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3819–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the new high-resolution land use and land cover change dataset LUCAS LUC for Europe (version 1.1), tailored for use in regional climate models. Historical and projected future land use change information from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset is translated into annual plant functional type changes from 1950 to 2015 and 2016 to 2100, respectively, by employing a newly developed land use translator.
Nina Raoult, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, and Vladislav Bastrikov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2705–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice sheet melting due to global warming could significantly impact global sea-level rise. The ice sheet's albedo, i.e. how reflective the surface is, affects the melting speed. The ORCHIDEE computer model is used to simulate albedo and snowmelt to make predictions. However, the albedo in ORCHIDEE is lower than that observed using satellites. To correct this, we change model parameters (e.g. the rate of snow decay) to reduce the difference between simulated and observed values.
Kandice L. Harper, Céline Lamarche, Andrew Hartley, Philippe Peylin, Catherine Ottlé, Vladislav Bastrikov, Rodrigo San Martín, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Grit Kirches, Martin Boettcher, Roman Shevchuk, Carsten Brockmann, and Pierre Defourny
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1465–1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We built a spatially explicit annual plant-functional-type (PFT) dataset for 1992–2020 exhibiting intra-class spatial variability in PFT fractional cover at 300 m. For each year, 14 maps of percentage cover are produced: bare soil, water, permanent snow/ice, built, managed grasses, natural grasses, and trees and shrubs, each split into leaf type and seasonality. Model simulations indicate significant differences in simulated carbon, water, and energy fluxes in some regions using this new set.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Yi-Ying Chen and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-349-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones are typically assumed to be associated with ecosystem damage. This study challenges this assumption and suggests that instead of reducing leaf area, cyclones in East Asia may increase leaf area by alleviating water stress.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Yitong Yao, Emilie Joetzjer, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Jerome Chave, Lawren Sack, Megan Bartlett, Patrick Meir, Rosie Fisher, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7809–7833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate more mechanistic modeling of drought effects on forest dynamics, our study implements a hydraulic module to simulate the vertical water flow, change in water storage and percentage loss of stem conductance (PLC). With the relationship between PLC and tree mortality, our model can successfully reproduce the large biomass drop observed under throughfall exclusion. Our hydraulic module provides promising avenues benefiting the prediction for mortality under future drought events.
Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich, Philippe Ciais, Emanuele Lugato, Marco Carozzi, Bertrand Guenet, Pasquale Borrelli, Victoria Naipal, Matthew McGrath, Philippe Martin, and Panos Panagos
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7835–7857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Currently, spatially explicit models for soil carbon stock can simulate the impacts of several changes. However, they do not incorporate the erosion, lateral transport, and deposition (ETD) of soil material. The present work developed ETD formulation, illustrated model calibration and validation for Europe, and presented the results for a depositional site. We expect that our work advances ETD models' description and facilitates their reproduction and incorporation in land surface models.
Brendan Byrne, Junjie Liu, Yonghong Yi, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sourish Basu, Rui Cheng, Russell Doughty, Frédéric Chevallier, Kevin W. Bowman, Nicholas C. Parazoo, David Crisp, Xing Li, Jingfeng Xiao, Stephen Sitch, Bertrand Guenet, Feng Deng, Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, Patrick C. McGuire, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 19, 4779–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Plants draw CO2 from the atmosphere during the growing season, while respiration releases CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year, driving seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 that can be observed by satellites, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). Using OCO-2 XCO2 data and space-based constraints on plant growth, we show that permafrost-rich northeast Eurasia has a strong seasonal release of CO2 during the autumn, hinting at an unexpectedly large respiration signal from soils.
Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Philippe Ciais, Kristof Van Oost, Victoria Naipal, Bertrand Guenet, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1119–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a land surface model which can simulate the complete lateral transfer of sediment and carbon from land to ocean through rivers. Our model captures the water, sediment, and organic carbon discharges in European rivers well. Application of our model in Europe indicates that lateral carbon transfer can strongly change regional land carbon budgets by affecting organic carbon distribution and soil moisture.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Laura Sereni, Bertrand Guenet, Charlotte Blasi, Olivier Crouzet, Jean-Christophe Lata, and Isabelle Lamy
Biogeosciences, 19, 2953–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2953-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study focused on the modellisation of two important drivers of soil greenhouse gas emissions: soil contamination and soil moisture change. The aim was to include a Cu function in the soil biogeochemical model DNDC for different soil moisture conditions and then to estimate variation in N2O, NO2 or NOx emissions. Our results show a larger effect of Cu on N2 and N2O emissions than on the other nitrogen species and a higher effect for the soils incubated under constant constant moisture.
Elodie Salmon, Fabrice Jégou, Bertrand Guenet, Line Jourdain, Chunjing Qiu, Vladislav Bastrikov, Christophe Guimbaud, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Peylin, Sébastien Gogo, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Mika Aurela, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Jiquan Chen, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Housen Chu, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, David Holl, Janina Klatt, Olaf Kolle, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Annalea Lohila, Lutz Merbold, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Torsten Sachs, and Klaudia Ziemblińska
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2813–2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A methane model that features methane production and transport by plants, the ebullition process and diffusion in soil, oxidation to CO2, and CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere has been embedded in the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model, which includes an explicit representation of northern peatlands. This model, ORCHIDEE-PCH4, was calibrated and evaluated on 14 peatland sites. Results show that the model is sensitive to temperature and substrate availability over the top 75 cm of soil depth.
Guillaume Marie, B. Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Cecile Dardel, Thuy Le Toan, Alexandre Bouvet, Stéphane Mermoz, Ludovic Villard, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2599–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most Earth system models make use of vegetation maps to initialize a simulation at global scale. Satellite-based biomass map estimates for Africa were used to estimate cover fractions for the 15 land cover classes. This study successfully demonstrates that satellite-based biomass maps can be used to better constrain vegetation maps. Applying this approach at the global scale would increase confidence in assessments of present-day biomass stocks.
Céline Gommet, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Haicheng Zhang, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 393–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils into river networks is an important component of the land carbon (C) budget, but its spatiotemporal variation is not yet fully constrained. We use a land surface model to simulate the present-day land C budget at the European scale, including leaching of DOC from the soil. We found average leaching of 14.3 Tg C yr−1 (0.6 % of terrestrial net primary production) with seasonal variations. We determine runoff and temperature to be the main drivers.
Lucía Caudillo, Birte Rörup, Martin Heinritzi, Guillaume Marie, Mario Simon, Andrea C. Wagner, Tatjana Müller, Manuel Granzin, Antonio Amorim, Farnoush Ataei, Rima Baalbaki, Barbara Bertozzi, Zoé Brasseur, Randall Chiu, Biwu Chu, Lubna Dada, Jonathan Duplissy, Henning Finkenzeller, Loïc Gonzalez Carracedo, Xu-Cheng He, Victoria Hofbauer, Weimeng Kong, Houssni Lamkaddam, Chuan P. Lee, Brandon Lopez, Naser G. A. Mahfouz, Vladimir Makhmutov, Hanna E. Manninen, Ruby Marten, Dario Massabò, Roy L. Mauldin, Bernhard Mentler, Ugo Molteni, Antti Onnela, Joschka Pfeifer, Maxim Philippov, Ana A. Piedehierro, Meredith Schervish, Wiebke Scholz, Benjamin Schulze, Jiali Shen, Dominik Stolzenburg, Yuri Stozhkov, Mihnea Surdu, Christian Tauber, Yee Jun Tham, Ping Tian, António Tomé, Steffen Vogt, Mingyi Wang, Dongyu S. Wang, Stefan K. Weber, André Welti, Wang Yonghong, Wu Yusheng, Marcel Zauner-Wieczorek, Urs Baltensperger, Imad El Haddad, Richard C. Flagan, Armin Hansel, Kristina Höhler, Jasper Kirkby, Markku Kulmala, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Ottmar Möhler, Harald Saathoff, Rainer Volkamer, Paul M. Winkler, Neil M. Donahue, Andreas Kürten, and Joachim Curtius
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17099–17114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17099-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We performed experiments in the CLOUD chamber at CERN at low temperatures to simulate new particle formation in the upper free troposphere (at −30 ºC and −50 ºC). We measured the particle and gas phase and found that most of the compounds present in the gas phase are detected as well in the particle phase. The major compounds in the particles are C8–10 and C18–20. Specifically, we showed that C5 and C15 compounds are detected in a mixed system with isoprene and α-pinene at −30 ºC, 20 % RH.
Jina Jeong, Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Vanessa Haverd, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Nicolas Vuichard, Michael Neil Evans, Flurin Babst, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5891–5913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have proposed and evaluated the use of four benchmarks that leverage tree-ring width observations to provide more nuanced verification targets for land-surface models (LSMs), which currently lack a long-term benchmark for forest ecosystem functioning. Using relatively unbiased European biomass network datasets, we identify the extent to which presumed biases in the much larger International Tree-Ring Data Bank might degrade the validation of LSMs.
Peter Hoffmann, Vanessa Reinhart, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Edouard L. Davin, Christina Asmus, Benjamin Bechtel, Jürgen Böhner, Eleni Katragkou, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-252, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the new high-resolution land-use land-cover change dataset LUCAS LUC historical and future land use and land cover change dataset (Version 1.0), tailored for use in regional climate models. Historical and projected future land use change information from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset is translated into annual plant functional type changes from 1950 to 2015 and 2016 to 2100, respectively, by employing a newly developed land use translator.
Thomas Janssen, Ype van der Velde, Florian Hofhansl, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Kim Naudts, Bart Driessen, Katrin Fleischer, and Han Dolman
Biogeosciences, 18, 4445–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite images show that the Amazon forest has greened up during past droughts. Measurements of tree stem growth and leaf litterfall upscaled using machine-learning algorithms show that leaf flushing at the onset of a drought results in canopy rejuvenation and green-up during drought while simultaneously trees excessively shed older leaves and tree stem growth declines. Canopy green-up during drought therefore does not necessarily point to enhanced tree growth and improved forest health.
Elisa Bruni, Bertrand Guenet, Yuanyuan Huang, Hugues Clivot, Iñigo Virto, Roberta Farina, Thomas Kätterer, Philippe Ciais, Manuel Martin, and Claire Chenu
Biogeosciences, 18, 3981–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3981-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is beneficial for climate change mitigation and food security. One way to enhance SOC stocks is to increase carbon input to the soil. We estimate the amount of carbon input required to reach a 4 % annual increase in SOC stocks in 14 long-term agricultural experiments around Europe. We found that annual carbon input should increase by 43 % under current temperature conditions, by 54 % for a 1 °C warming scenario and by 120 % for a 5 °C warming scenario.
Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Thomas Launois, Valerie Daux, Camille Risi, Jina Jeong, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 18, 3781–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3781-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The width and the chemical signals of tree rings have the potential to test and improve the physiological responses simulated by global land surface models, which are at the core of future climate projections. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of tree-ring width and carbon and oxygen stable isotopes to evaluate the representation of tree growth and physiology in a global land surface model at temporal scales beyond experimentation and direct observation.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Hiroki Mizuochi, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, Josefine Ghattas, Amen Al-Yaari, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Vladislav Bastrikov, Philippe Peylin, Fabienne Maignan, and Nicolas Vuichard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2199–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, 2021
Yan Sun, Daniel S. Goll, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Betrand Guenet, Julian Helfenstein, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Fabienne Maignan, Victoria Naipal, Yilong Wang, Hui Yang, and Haicheng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1987–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the performance of the nutrient-enabled version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP v1.2 against remote sensing, ground-based measurement networks and ecological databases. The simulated carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes among different spatial scales are generally in good agreement with data-driven estimates. However, the recent carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere is substantially underestimated. Potential causes and model development priorities are discussed.
Cited articles
Abramowitz, G., Leuning, R., Clark, M., and Pitman, A.: Evaluating the Performance of Land Surface Models, J. Climate, 21, 5468–5481, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2378.1, 2008.
Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., and McDowell, N. G.: On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene, Ecosphere, 6, art129, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1, 2015.
Andrus, R. A., Hart, S. J., and Veblen, T. T.: Forest recovery following synchronous outbreaks of spruce and western balsam bark beetle is slowed by ungulate browsing, Ecology, 101, e02998, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2998, 2020.
Angers, V. A., Drapeau, P., and Bergeron, Y.: Mineralization rates and factors influencing snag decay in four North American boreal tree species, Can. J. For. Res., 42, 157–166, https://doi.org/10.1139/x11-167, 2012.
Arthur, G., Jonathan, L., Juliette, C., Latte, N., Piedallu, C., and Claessens, H.: Spatial and remote sensing monitoring shows the end of the bark beetle outbreak on Belgian and north-eastern France Norway spruce (Picea abies) stands, Environ. Monit. Assess., 196, 226, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12372-0, 2024.
Bakke, A.: The recent Ips typographus outbreak in Norway – experiences from a control program, Ecography, 12, 515–519, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.1989.tb00930.x, 1989.
Ballard, R. G., Walsh, M. A., and Cole, W. E.: Blue-stain fungi in xylem of lodgepole pine: a light-microscope study on extent of hyphal distribution, Can. J. Bot., 60, 2334–2341, https://doi.org/10.1139/b82-285, 1982.
Bentz, B. J., Régnière, J., Fettig, C. J., Hansen, E. M., Hayes, J. L., Hicke, J. A., Kelsey, R. G., Negrón, J. F., and Seybold, S. J.: Climate Change and Bark Beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and Indirect Effects, BioScience, 60, 602–613, https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.6, 2010.
Berner, L. T., Law, B. E., Meddens, A. J. H., and Hicke, J. A.: Tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest during a hot and dry decade in the western United States (2003–2012), Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 065005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f94, 2017.
Berryman, A. A.: Population Cycles: The Case for Trophic Interactions, Oxford University Press, 207 pp., 2002.
Biedermann, P. H. W., Müller, J., Grégoire, J.-C., Gruppe, A., Hagge, J., Hammerbacher, A., Hofstetter, R. W., Kandasamy, D., Kolarik, M., Kostovcik, M., Krokene, P., Sallé, A., Six, D. L., Turrini, T., Vanderpool, D., Wingfield, M. J., and Bässler, C.: Bark Beetle Population Dynamics in the Anthropocene: Challenges and Solutions, Trends Ecol. Evol., 34, 914–924, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2019.06.002, 2019.
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., Lavergne, C. de, Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, L., E., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020.
Bugmann, H. K. M.: A Simplified Forest Model to Study Species Composition Along Climate Gradients, Ecology, 77, 2055–2074, https://doi.org/10.2307/2265700, 1996.
Buma, B.: Disturbance interactions: characterization, prediction, and the potential for cascading effects, Ecosphere, 6, art70, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00058.1, 2015.
Chapin, F. S., Woodwell, G. M., Randerson, J. T., Rastetter, E. B., Lovett, G. M., Baldocchi, D. D., Clark, D. A., Harmon, M. E., Schimel, D. S., Valentini, R., Wirth, C., Aber, J. D., Cole, J. J., Goulden, M. L., Harden, J. W., Heimann, M., Howarth, R. W., Matson, P. A., McGuire, A. D., Melillo, J. M., Mooney, H. A., Neff, J. C., Houghton, R. A., Pace, M. L., Ryan, M. G., Running, S. W., Sala, O. E., Schlesinger, W. H., and Schulze, E.-D.: Reconciling Carbon-cycle Concepts, Terminology, and Methods. Ecosystems 9, 1041–1050, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-005-0105-7, 2006.
Chen, Y., Ryder, J., Bastrikov, V., McGrath, M. J., Naudts, K., Otto, J., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Polcher, J., Valade, A., Black, A., Elbers, J. A., Moors, E., Foken, T., van Gorsel, E., Haverd, V., Heinesch, B., Tiedemann, F., Knohl, A., Launiainen, S., Loustau, D., Ogée, J., Vessala, T., and Luyssaert, S.: Evaluating the performance of land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN v1.0 on water and energy flux estimation with a single- and multi-layer energy budget scheme, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2951–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2951-2016, 2016.
Chen, Y.-Y., Gardiner, B., Pasztor, F., Blennow, K., Ryder, J., Valade, A., Naudts, K., Otto, J., McGrath, M. J., Planque, C., and Luyssaert, S.: Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 771–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-771-2018, 2018.
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., De Noblet, N., Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T., and Valentini, R.: Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 437, 529–533, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972, 2005.
Copernicus: European State of the Climate, https://climate.copernicus.eu/ESOTC, last access: 25 March 2024.
Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A., and Totterdell, I. J.: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184–187, https://doi.org/10.1038/35041539, 2000.
Custer, G. F., van Diepen, L. T. A., and Stump, W. L.: Structural and Functional Dynamics of Soil Microbes following Spruce Beetle Infestation, Appl. Environ. Microbiol., 86, e01984-19, https://doi.org/10.1128/AEM.01984-19, 2020.
Das, A. J., Stephenson, N. L., and Davis, K. P.: Why do trees die? Characterizing the drivers of background tree mortality, Ecology, 97, 2616–2627, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1497, 2016.
Deleuze, C., Pain, O., Dhôte, J.-F., and Hervé, J.-C.: A flexible radial increment model for individual trees in pure even-aged stands, Ann. For. Sci., 61, 327–335, https://doi.org/10.1051/forest:2004026, 2004.
Edburg, S. L., Hicke, J. A., Brooks, P. D., Pendall, E. G., Ewers, B. E., Norton, U., Gochis, D., Gutmann, E. D., and Meddens, A. J.: Cascading impacts of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on coupled biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes, Front. Ecol. Environ., 10, 416–424, https://doi.org/10.1890/110173, 2012.
Faccoli, M. and Stergulc, F.: A practical method for predicting the short-time trend of bivoltine populations of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytidae), J. Appl. Entomol., 130, 61–66, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0418.2005.01019.x, 2006.
Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., Bloh, W. von, Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., Bala, G., John, J., Jones, C., Joos, F., Kato, T., Kawamiya, M., Knorr, W., Lindsay, K., Matthews, H. D., Raddatz, T., Rayner, P., Reick, C., Roeckner, E., Schnitzler, K.-G., Schnur, R., Strassmann, K., Weaver, A. J., Yoshikawa, C., and Zeng, N.: Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison, J. Climate, 19, 3337–3353, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3800.1, 2006.
Grimm, V. and Wissel, C.: Babel, or the ecological stability discussions: an inventory and analysis of terminology and a guide for avoiding confusion, Oecologia, 109, 323–334, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004420050090, 1997.
Havašová, M., Ferenčík, J., and Jakuš, R.: Interactions between windthrow, bark beetles and forest management in the Tatra national parks, For. Ecol. Manag., 391, 349–361, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.01.009, 2017.
Haverd, V., Lovell, J. L., Cuntz, M., Jupp, D. L. B., Newnham, G. J., and Sea, W.: The Canopy Semi-analytic Pgap And Radiative Transfer (CanSPART) model: Formulation and application, Agric. For. Meteorol., 160, 14–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.01.018, 2012.
Hicke, J. A., Allen, C. D., Desai, A. R., Dietze, M. C., Hall, R. J., Hogg, E. H., Kashian, D. M., Moore, D., Raffa, K. F., Sturrock, R. N., and Vogelmann, J.: Effects of biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling in the United States and Canada, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 7–34, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02543.x, 2012.
Hlásny, T., König, L., Krokene, P., Lindner, M., Montagné-Huck, C., Müller, J., Qin, H., Raffa, K. F., Schelhaas, M.-J., Svoboda, M., Viiri, H., and Seidl, R.: Bark Beetle Outbreaks in Europe: State of Knowledge and Ways Forward for Management, Curr. For. Rep., 7, 138–165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-021-00142-x, 2021a.
Hlásny, T., Zimová, S., Merganičová, K., Štěpánek, P., Modlinger, R., and Turčáni, M.: Devastating outbreak of bark beetles in the Czech Republic: Drivers, impacts, and management implications, For. Ecol. Manag., 490, 119075, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119075, 2021b.
Huang, J., Kautz, M., Trowbridge, A. M., Hammerbacher, A., Raffa, K. F., Adams, H. D., Goodsman, D. W., Xu, C., Meddens, A. J. H., Kandasamy, D., Gershenzon, J., Seidl, R., and Hartmann, H.: Tree defence and bark beetles in a drying world: carbon partitioning, functioning and modelling, New Phytol., 225, 26–36, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16173, 2020.
IPSL Data Catalog: ORCHIDEE_Bark_beetles_outbreak_gmd_2024, IPSL Data Catalog [code], https://doi.org/10.14768/08ca9318-b663-40e3-90e6-6baee0475ba0, 2024.
Jonášová, M. and Prach, K.: Central-European mountain spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests: regeneration of tree species after a bark beetle outbreak, Ecol. Eng., 23, 15–27, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2004.06.010
Jönsson, A. M., Appelberg, G., Harding, S., and Bärring, L.: Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 486–499, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01742.x, 2009.
Jönsson, A. M., Harding, S., Krokene, P., Lange, H., Lindelöw, Å., Økland, B., Ravn, H. P., and Schroeder, L. M.: Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause, Clim. Change, 109, 695–718, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0038-4, 2011.
Jönsson, A. M., Schroeder, L. M., Lagergren, F., Anderbrant, O., and Smith, B.: Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating spruce bark beetle outbreaks, Agric. For. Meteorol., 166–167, 188–200, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012, 2012.
Kärvemo, S. and Schroeder, L. M.: A comparison of outbreak dynamics of the spruce bark beetle in Sweden and the mountain pine beetle in Canada (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) [En jämförelse av utbrottsdynamiken mellan granbarkborre i Sverige och contortabast-borre i Kanada (Curculionidae: Scolytinae)], Entomologisk Tidskrift, 131, 215–224, 2010.
Kautz, M., Anthoni, P., Meddens, A. J. H., Pugh, T. A. M., and Arneth, A.: Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 2079–2092, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13974, 2018.
Komonen, A., Schroeder, L. M., and Weslien, J.: Ips typographus population development after a severe storm in a nature reserve in southern Sweden, J. Appl. Entomol., 135, 132–141, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0418.2010.01520.x, 2011.
Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system: DVGM FOR COUPLED CLIMATE STUDIES, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB1015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005.
Kurz, W. A., Dymond, C. C., Stinson, G., Rampley, G. J., Neilson, E. T., Carroll, A. L., Ebata, T., and Safranyik, L.: Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change, Nature, 452, 987–990, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06777, 2008a.
Kurz, W. A., Stinson, G., Rampley, G. J., Dymond, C. C., and Neilson, E. T.: Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 1551–1555, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0708133105, 2008b.
Lasslop, G., Thonicke, K., and Kloster, S.: SPITFIRE within the MPI Earth system model: Model development and evaluation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 6, 740–755, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000284, 2014.
Lausch, A., Fahse, L., and Heurich, M.: Factors affecting the spatio-temporal dispersion of Ips typographus (L.) in Bavarian Forest National Park: A long-term quantitative landscape-level analysis, For. Ecol. Manag., 261, 233–245, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.10.012, 2011.
Levins, R.: The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology, Am. Sci., 54, 421–431, 1966.
Lieutier, F.: Mechanisms of Resistance in Conifers and Bark beetle Attack Strategies, in: Mechanisms and Deployment of Resistance in Trees to Insects, edited by: Wagner, M. R., Clancy, K. M., Lieutier, F., and Paine, T. D., Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 31–77, https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47596-0_2, 2002.
Lombardero, M. J., Ayres, M. P., Ayres, B. D., and Reeve, J. D.: Cold Tolerance of Four Species of Bark Beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) in North America, Environ. Entomol., 29, 421–432, https://doi.org/10.1603/0046-225X-29.3.421, 2000.
Luyssaert, S., Marie, G., Valade, A., Chen, Y.-Y., Njakou Djomo, S., Ryder, J., Otto, J., Naudts, K., Lansø, A. S., Ghattas, J., and McGrath, M. J.: Trade-offs in using European forests to meet climate objectives, Nature, 562, 259–262, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0577-1, 2018.
Marie, G.: Bark Beetle outbreak module dev into ORCHIDEE – simulation results and quantitative evaluation, Zenodo [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12806280, 2024.
Marini, L., Økland, B., Jönsson, A. M., Bentz, B., Carroll, A., Forster, B., Grégoire, J.-C., Hurling, R., Nageleisen, L. M., Netherer, S., Ravn, H. P., Weed, A., and Schroeder, M.: Climate drivers of bark beetle outbreak dynamics in Norway spruce forests, Ecography, 40, 1426–1435, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02769, 2017.
Mezei, P., Grodzki, W., Blaženec, M., and Jakuš, R.: Factors influencing the wind–bark beetles' disturbance system in the course of an Ips typographus outbreak in the Tatra Mountains, For. Ecol. Manag., 312, 67–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.10.020, 2014.
Mezei, P., Jakuš, R., Pennerstorfer, J., Havašová, M., Škvarenina, J., Ferenčík, J., Slivinský, J., Bičárová, S., Bilčík, D., Blaženec, M., and Netherer, S.: Storms, temperature maxima and the Eurasian spruce bark beetle Ips typographus – An infernal trio in Norway spruce forests of the Central European High Tatra Mountains, Agric. For. Meteorol., 242, 85–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.04.004, 2017.
Migliavacca, M., Dosio, A., Kloster, S., Ward, D. S., Camia, A., Houborg, R., Houston Durrant, T., Khabarov, N., Krasovskii, A. A., San Miguel-Ayanz, J., and Cescatti, A.: Modeling burned area in Europe with the Community Land Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118, 265–279, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20026, 2013.
Migliavacca, M., Musavi, T., Mahecha, M. D., Nelson, J. A., Knauer, J., Baldocchi, D. D., Perez-Priego, O., Christiansen, R., Peters, J., Anderson, K., Bahn, M., Black, T. A., Blanken, P. D., Bonal, D., Buchmann, N., Caldararu, S., Carrara, A., Carvalhais, N., Cescatti, A., Chen, J., Cleverly, J., Cremonese, E., Desai, A. R., El-Madany, T. S., Farella, M. M., Fernández-Martínez, M., Filippa, G., Forkel, M., Galvagno, M., Gomarasca, U., Gough, C. M., Göckede, M., Ibrom, A., Ikawa, H., Janssens, I. A., Jung, M., Kattge, J., Keenan, T. F., Knohl, A., Kobayashi, H., Kraemer, G., Law, B. E., Liddell, M. J., Ma, X., Mammarella, I., Martini, D., Macfarlane, C., Matteucci, G., Montagnani, L., Pabon-Moreno, D. E., Panigada, C., Papale, D., Pendall, E., Penuelas, J., Phillips, R. P., Reich, P. B., Rossini, M., Rotenberg, E., Scott, R. L., Stahl, C., Weber, U., Wohlfahrt, G., Wolf, S., Wright, I. J., Yakir, D., Zaehle, S., and Reichstein, M.: The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function, Nature, 598, 468–472, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03939-9, 2021.
Millar, C. I. and Stephenson, N. L.: Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance, Science, 349, 823–826, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa9933, 2015.
Morehouse, K., Johns, T., Kaye, J., and Kaye, M.: Carbon and nitrogen cycling immediately following bark beetle outbreaks in southwestern ponderosa pine forests, For. Ecol. Manag., 255, 2698–2708, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.01.050, 2008.
Nardi, D., Jactel, H., Pagot, E., Samalens, J.-C., and Marini, L.: Drought and stand susceptibility to attacks by the European spruce bark beetle: A remote sensing approach, Agric. For. Entomol., 25, 119–129, https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12536, 2023.
Naudts, K., Ryder, J., McGrath, M. J., Otto, J., Chen, Y., Valade, A., Bellasen, V., Berhongaray, G., Bönisch, G., Campioli, M., Ghattas, J., De Groote, T., Haverd, V., Kattge, J., MacBean, N., Maignan, F., Merilä, P., Penuelas, J., Peylin, P., Pinty, B., Pretzsch, H., Schulze, E. D., Solyga, D., Vuichard, N., Yan, Y., and Luyssaert, S.: A vertically discretised canopy description for ORCHIDEE (SVN r2290) and the modifications to the energy, water and carbon fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2035–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2035-2015, 2015.
Naudts, K., Chen, Y., McGrath, M. J., Ryder, J., Valade, A., Otto, J., and Luyssaert, S.: Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming, Science, 351, 597–600, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad7270, 2016.
Netherer, S., Matthews, B., Katzensteiner, K., Blackwell, E., Henschke, P., Hietz, P., Pennerstorfer, J., Rosner, S., Kikuta, S., Schume, H., and Schopf, A.: Do water-limiting conditions predispose Norway spruce to bark beetle attack?, New Phytol., 205, 1128–1141, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.13166, 2015.
Ogris, N., Ferlan, M., Hauptman, T., Pavlin, R., Kavčič, A., Jurc, M., and de Groot, M.: RITY – A phenology model of Ips typographus as a tool for optimization of its monitoring, Ecol. Model., 410, 108775, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108775, 2019.
Pastorello, G., Trotta, C., Canfora, E., Chu, H., Christianson, D., Cheah, Y.-W., Poindexter, C., Chen, J., Elbashandy, A., Humphrey, M., Isaac, P., Polidori, D., Reichstein, M., Ribeca, A., van Ingen, C., Vuichard, N., Zhang, L., Amiro, B., Ammann, C., Arain, M. A., Ardö, J., Arkebauer, T., Arndt, S. K., Arriga, N., Aubinet, M., Aurela, M., Baldocchi, D., Barr, A., Beamesderfer, E., Marchesini, L. B., Bergeron, O., Beringer, J., Bernhofer, C., Berveiller, D., Billesbach, D., Black, T. A., Blanken, P. D., Bohrer, G., Boike, J., Bolstad, P. V., Bonal, D., Bonnefond, J.-M., Bowling, D. R., Bracho, R., Brodeur, J., Brümmer, C., Buchmann, N., Burban, B., Burns, S. P., Buysse, P., Cale, P., Cavagna, M., Cellier, P., Chen, S., Chini, I., Christensen, T. R., Cleverly, J., Collalti, A., Consalvo, C., Cook, B. D., Cook, D., Coursolle, C., Cremonese, E., Curtis, P. S., D'Andrea, E., da Rocha, H., Dai, X., Davis, K. J., Cinti, B. D., Grandcourt, A. de, Ligne, A. D., De Oliveira, R. C., Delpierre, N., Desai, A. R., Di Bella, C. M., Tommasi, P. di, Dolman, H., Domingo, F., Dong, G., Dore, S., Duce, P., Dufrêne, E., Dunn, A., Dušek, J., Eamus, D., Eichelmann, U., ElKhidir, H. A. M., Eugster, W., Ewenz, C. M., Ewers, B., Famulari, D., Fares, S., Feigenwinter, I., Feitz, A., Fensholt, R., Filippa, G., Fischer, M., Frank, J., Galvagno, M., et al.: The FLUXNET2015 dataset and the ONEFlux processing pipeline for eddy covariance data, Sci. Data, 7, 225, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0534-3, 2020.
Pasztor, F., Matulla, C., Rammer, W., and Lexer, M. J.: Drivers of the bark beetle disturbance regime in Alpine forests in Austria, For. Ecol. Manag., 318, 349–358, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2014.01.044, 2014.
Pfeifer, E. M., Hicke, J. A., and Meddens, A. J. H.: Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02226.x, 2011.
Pineau, X., David, G., Peter, Z., Sallé, A., Baude, M., Lieutier, F., and Jactel, H.: Effect of temperature on the reproductive success, developmental rate and brood characteristics of Ips sexdentatus (Boern.), Agric. For. Entomol., 19, 23–33, https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12177, 2017.
Preisler, H. K., Hicke, J. A., Ager, A. A., and Hayes, J. L.: Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon, Ecology, 93, 2421–2434, https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1412.1, 2012.
Pugh, T. A. M., Jones, C. D., Huntingford, C., Burton, C., Arneth, A., Brovkin, V., Ciais, P., Lomas, M., Robertson, E., and Piao, S. L.: A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics, Earths Future, 6, 1413–1432, 2017.
Quillet, A., Peng, C., and Garneau, M.: Toward dynamic global vegetation models for simulating vegetation–climate interactions and feedbacks: recent developments, limitations, and future challenges, Environ. Rev., 18, 333–353, https://doi.org/10.1139/A10-016, 2010.
Raffa, K. F., Aukema, B. H., Bentz, B. J., Carroll, A. L., Hicke, J. A., Turner, M. G., and Romme, W. H.: Cross-scale Drivers of Natural Disturbances Prone to Anthropogenic Amplification: The Dynamics of Bark Beetle Eruptions, BioScience, 58, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.1641/B580607, 2008.
Rhoades, C. C.: Soil Nitrogen Leaching in Logged Beetle-Killed Forests and Implications for Riparian Fuel Reduction, J. Environ. Qual., 48, 305–313, https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2018.04.0169, 2019.
Ryder, J., Polcher, J., Peylin, P., Ottlé, C., Chen, Y., van Gorsel, E., Haverd, V., McGrath, M. J., Naudts, K., Otto, J., Valade, A., and Luyssaert, S.: A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 223–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-223-2016, 2016.
Schlyter, F., Birgersson, G., and Leufvén, A.: Inhibition of attraction to aggregation pheromone by verbenone and ipsenol, J. Chem. Ecol., 15, 2263–2277, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01014114, 1989.
Schumacher, S.: The role of large-scale disturbances and climate for the dynamics of forested landscapes in the European Alps, Doctoral Thesis, ETH Zurich, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-004818825, 2004.
Seidl, R. and Rammer, W.: Climate change amplifies the interactions between wind and bark beetle disturbances in forest landscapes, Landsc. Ecol., 32, 1485–1498, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0396-4, 2016.
Seidl, R., Fernandes, P. M., Fonseca, T. F., Gillet, F., Jönsson, A. M., Merganičová, K., Netherer, S., Arpaci, A., Bontemps, J.-D., Bugmann, H., González-Olabarria, J. R., Lasch, P., Meredieu, C., Moreira, F., Schelhaas, M.-J., and Mohren, F.: Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review, Ecol. Model., 222, 903–924, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.040, 2011.
Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M.-J., Rammer, W., and Verkerk, P. J.: Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 806–810, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2318, 2014.
Seidl, R., Thom, D., Kautz, M., Martin-Benito, D., Peltoniemi, M., Vacchiano, G., Wild, J., Ascoli, D., Petr, M., Honkaniemi, J., Lexer, M. J., Trotsiuk, V., Mairota, P., Svoboda, M., Fabrika, M., Nagel, T. A., and Reyer, C. P. O.: Forest disturbances under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 395–402, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3303, 2017.
Seidl, R., Klonner, G., Rammer, W., Essl, F., Moreno, A., Neumann, M., and Dullinger, S.: Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests, Nat. Commun., 9, 1626, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04096-w, 2018.
Senf, C., Pflugmacher, D., Hostert, P., and Seidl, R.: Using Landsat time series for characterizing forest disturbance dynamics in the coupled human and natural systems of Central Europe, ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens., 130, 453–463, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.07.004, 2017.
Storaunet, K. O., Rolstad, J., Gjerde, I., and Gundersen, V. S.:Historical logging, productivity, and structural characteristics of boreal coniferous forests in Norway. Silva Fenn., 39, 429–442, 2005.
Temperli, C., Bugmann, H., and Elkin, C.: Cross-scale interactions among bark beetles, climate change, and wind disturbances: a landscape modeling approach, Ecol. Monogr., 83, 383–402, https://doi.org/10.1890/12-1503.1, 2013.
Thurner, M., Beer, C., Ciais, P., Friend, A. D., Ito, A., Kleidon, A., Lomas, M. R., Quegan, S., Rademacher, T. T., Schaphoff, S., Tum, M., Wiltshire, A., and Carvalhais, N.: Evaluation of climate-related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 3076–3091, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13660, 2017.
Van Meerbeek, K., Jucker, T., and Svenning, J.-C.: Unifying the concepts of stability and resilience in ecology, J. Ecol., 109, 3114–3132, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13651, 2021.
Vuichard, N., Messina, P., Luyssaert, S., Guenet, B., Zaehle, S., Ghattas, J., Bastrikov, V., and Peylin, P.: Accounting for carbon and nitrogen interactions in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE (trunk version, rev 4999): multi-scale evaluation of gross primary production, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4751–4779, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4751-2019, 2019.
Wermelinger, B.: Ecology and management of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus – a review of recent research, For. Ecol. Manag., 202, 67–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2004.07.018, 2004.
Wichmann, L. and Ravn, H. P.: The spread of Ips typographus (L.) (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) attacks following heavy windthrow in Denmark, analysed using GIS, For. Ecol. Manag., 148, 31–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00477-1, 2001.
Yao, Y., Joetzjer, E., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Cresto Aleina, F., Chave, J., Sack, L., Bartlett, M., Meir, P., Fisher, R., and Luyssaert, S.: Forest fluxes and mortality response to drought: model description (ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA r7236) and evaluation at the Caxiuanã drought experiment, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7809–7833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, 2022.
Yue, C., Ciais, P., Cadule, P., Thonicke, K., Archibald, S., Poulter, B., Hao, W. M., Hantson, S., Mouillot, F., Friedlingstein, P., Maignan, F., and Viovy, N.: Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE – Part 1: simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014.
Zaehle, S. and Dalmonech, D.: Carbon–nitrogen interactions on land at global scales: current understanding in modelling climate biosphere feedbacks, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 3, 311–320, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2011.08.008, 2011.
Zaehle, S. and Friend, A. D.: Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 1. Model description, site-scale evaluation, and sensitivity to parameter estimates, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB1005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003521, 2010.
Zhang, Q.-H. and Schlyter, F.: Olfactory recognition and behavioural avoidance of angiosperm nonhost volatiles by conifer-inhabiting bark beetles, Agric. For. Entomol., 6, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-9555.2004.00202.x, 2004.
Zscheischler, J., Westra, S., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Ward, P. J., Pitman, A., AghaKouchak, A., Bresch, D. N., Leonard, M., Wahl, T., and Zhang, X.: Future climate risk from compound events, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 469–477, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3, 2018.
Short summary
This research looks at how climate change influences forests, and particularly how altered wind and insect activities could make forests emit instead of absorb carbon. We have updated a land surface model called ORCHIDEE to better examine the effect of bark beetles on forest health. Our findings suggest that sudden events, such as insect outbreaks, can dramatically affect carbon storage, offering crucial insights into tackling climate change.
This research looks at how climate change influences forests, and particularly how altered wind...