Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
| 
01 Jun 2023
Model evaluation paper |
| 01 Jun 2023
| 01 Jun 2023
Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales
Carolina Gallo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry CV8 3LG, UK
Jonathan M. Eden
Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry CV8 3LG, UK
Bastien Dieppois
Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry CV8 3LG, UK
Igor Drobyshev
Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Alnarp 230 53, Sweden
Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), QC J9X 5E4, Québec, Canada
Forest Research Institute of the Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russia
Peter Z. Fulé
School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz
Disaster Risk Management Unit, Directorate for Space, Security and Mitigation, Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Ispra 21027, Italy
Matthew Blackett
Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry CV8 3LG, UK
School of Energy, Construction and Environment, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
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Cited
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- High-resolution projections of future FWI conditions for Portugal according to CMIP6 future climate scenarios S. Cardoso Pereira et al. 10.1007/s00704-024-05142-y
- Future enhanced threshold effects of wildfire drivers could increase burned areas in northern mid- and high latitudes H. Zhao et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02202-7
- Stronger Impact of Extreme Heat Event on Vegetation Temperature Sensitivity under Future Scenarios with High-Emission Intensity H. Yang et al. 10.3390/rs16193708
- Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways F. Jäger et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024
- Evaluation and Projection of Global Burned Area Based on Global Climate Models and Satellite Fire Product X. Wang et al. 10.3390/rs16244751
- Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather: Insight from CMIP6 ensembles and implications for probabilistic attribution to global warming Z. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104822
- The fire weather in Europe: large-scale trends towards higher danger J. Hetzer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b09
- Integrating geospatial, remote sensing, and machine learning for climate-induced forest fire susceptibility mapping in Similipal Tiger Reserve, India C. Singha et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.121729
- Will fire-smart landscape management buffer the effects of climate and land-use changes on fire regimes? Â. Sil et al. 10.1186/s13717-024-00535-3
- Developing user-informed fire weather projections for Canada L. Van Vliet et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100505
- Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate S. El Garroussi et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00575-8
- Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100 Y. Quilcaille et al. 10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- High-resolution projections of future FWI conditions for Portugal according to CMIP6 future climate scenarios S. Cardoso Pereira et al. 10.1007/s00704-024-05142-y
- Future enhanced threshold effects of wildfire drivers could increase burned areas in northern mid- and high latitudes H. Zhao et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02202-7
- Stronger Impact of Extreme Heat Event on Vegetation Temperature Sensitivity under Future Scenarios with High-Emission Intensity H. Yang et al. 10.3390/rs16193708
- Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways F. Jäger et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024
- Evaluation and Projection of Global Burned Area Based on Global Climate Models and Satellite Fire Product X. Wang et al. 10.3390/rs16244751
- Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather: Insight from CMIP6 ensembles and implications for probabilistic attribution to global warming Z. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104822
- The fire weather in Europe: large-scale trends towards higher danger J. Hetzer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b09
- Integrating geospatial, remote sensing, and machine learning for climate-induced forest fire susceptibility mapping in Similipal Tiger Reserve, India C. Singha et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.121729
- Will fire-smart landscape management buffer the effects of climate and land-use changes on fire regimes? Â. Sil et al. 10.1186/s13717-024-00535-3
- Developing user-informed fire weather projections for Canada L. Van Vliet et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100505
- Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate S. El Garroussi et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00575-8
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
This study conducts the first global evaluation of the latest generation of global climate models to simulate a set of fire weather indicators from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. Models are shown to perform relatively strongly at the global scale, but they show substantial regional and seasonal differences. The results demonstrate the value of model evaluation and selection in producing reliable fire danger projections, ultimately to support decision-making and forest management.
This study conducts the first global evaluation of the latest generation of global climate...
