Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-17-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-17-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
02 Jan 2023
Development and technical paper |
| 02 Jan 2023
| 02 Jan 2023
Accelerated photosynthesis routine in LPJmL4
Jenny Niebsch
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
RICAM, Altenbergerstr. 69, 4040 Linz, Austria
Werner von Bloh
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Kirsten Thonicke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Ronny Ramlau
RICAM, Altenbergerstr. 69, 4040 Linz, Austria
Related authors
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Marie Brunel, Stephen Wirth, Markus Drüke, Kirsten Thonicke, Henrique Barbosa, Jens Heinke, and Susanne Rolinski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-922, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Farmers often use fire to clear dead pasture biomass, impacting vegetation and soil nutrients. This study integrates fire management into a DGVM to assess its effects, focusing on Brazil. The results show that combining grazing and fire management reduces vegetation carbon and soil nitrogen over time. The research highlights the need to include these practices in models to improve pasture management assessments and calls for better data on fire usage and its long-term effects.
Luke Oberhagemann, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Matthew Forrest, Simon P. K. Bowring, Jessica Hetzer, Jaime Ribalaygua Batalla, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2021–2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2021-2025, 2025
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Under climate change, the conditions necessary for wildfires to form are occurring more frequently in many parts of the world. To help predict how wildfires will change in future, global fire models are being developed. We analyze and further develop one such model, SPITFIRE. Our work identifies and corrects sources of substantial bias in the model that are important to the global fire modelling field. With this analysis and these developments, we help to provide a basis for future improvements.
Matthew Forrest, Jessica Hetzer, Maik Billing, Simon P. K. Bowring, Eric Kosczor, Luke Oberhagemann, Oliver Perkins, Dan Warren, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Kirsten Thonicke, and Thomas Hickler
Biogeosciences, 21, 5539–5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5539-2024, 2024
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Climate change is causing an increase in extreme wildfires in Europe, but drivers of fire are not well understood, especially across different land cover types. We used statistical models with satellite data, climate data, and socioeconomic data to determine what affects burning in cropland and non-cropland areas of Europe. We found different drivers of burning in cropland burning vs. non-cropland to the point that some variables, e.g. population density, had the complete opposite effects.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
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Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Markus Drüke, Wolfgang Lucht, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Arne Tobian, Sina Loriani, Sibyll Schaphoff, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 467–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, 2024
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The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization of the Earth system. We use the comprehensive Earth system model POEM to study the impact of the interacting boundaries for climate change and land system change. Our study shows the importance of long-term effects on carbon dynamics and climate, as well as the need to investigate both boundaries simultaneously and to generally keep both boundaries within acceptable ranges to avoid a catastrophic scenario for humanity.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
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In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Phillip Papastefanou, Christian S. Zang, Zlatan Angelov, Aline Anderson de Castro, Juan Carlos Jimenez, Luiz Felipe Campos De Rezende, Romina C. Ruscica, Boris Sakschewski, Anna A. Sörensson, Kirsten Thonicke, Carolina Vera, Nicolas Viovy, Celso Von Randow, and Anja Rammig
Biogeosciences, 19, 3843–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3843-2022, 2022
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The Amazon rainforest has been hit by multiple severe drought events. In this study, we assess the severity and spatial extent of the extreme drought years 2005, 2010 and 2015/16 in the Amazon. Using nine different precipitation datasets and three drought indicators we find large differences in drought stress across the Amazon region. We conclude that future studies should use multiple rainfall datasets and drought indicators when estimating the impact of drought stress in the Amazon region.
Boris Sakschewski, Werner von Bloh, Markus Drüke, Anna Amelia Sörensson, Romina Ruscica, Fanny Langerwisch, Maik Billing, Sarah Bereswill, Marina Hirota, Rafael Silva Oliveira, Jens Heinke, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 18, 4091–4116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4091-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4091-2021, 2021
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This study shows how local adaptations of tree roots across tropical and sub-tropical South America explain patterns of biome distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration on this continent. By allowing for high diversity of tree rooting strategies in a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), we are able to mechanistically explain patterns of mean rooting depth and the effects on ecosystem functions. The approach can advance DGVMs and Earth system models.
Markus Drüke, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Willem Huiskamp, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4117–4141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, 2021
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In this study, we couple the well-established and comprehensively validated state-of-the-art dynamic LPJmL5 global vegetation model to the CM2Mc coupled climate model (CM2Mc-LPJmL v.1.0). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. The new climate model is able to capture important biospheric processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling and the the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation).
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
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Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Markus Drüke, Matthias Forkel, Werner von Bloh, Boris Sakschewski, Manoel Cardoso, Mercedes Bustamante, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5029–5054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5029-2019, 2019
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This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the implementation of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model. We have demonstrated a major improvement in the fire representation within LPJmL4-SPITFIRE in terms of the spatial pattern and the interannual variability of burned area in South America as well as in the modelling of biomass and the distribution of plant types.
Kirsten Thonicke, Fanny Langerwisch, Matthias Baumann, Pedro J. Leitão, Tomáš Václavík, Ane Alencar, Margareth Simões, Simon Scheiter, Liam Langan, Mercedes Bustamante, Ignacio Gasparri, Marina Hirota, Jan Börner, Raoni Rajao, Britaldo Soares-Filho, Alberto Yanosky, José-Manuel Ochoa-Quinteiro, Lucas Seghezzo, Georgina Conti, and Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-221, 2019
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Tropical dry forests and savannas harbor unique biodiversity and provide critical ecosystem services (ES), yet they are under severe pressure globally. We need to improve our understanding of how and when this pressure provokes tipping points in biodiversity and the associated social-ecological systems. We propose an approach to investigate how drivers leading to natural vegetation decline trigger biodiversity tipping and illustrate it using the example of the Dry Diagonal in South America.
Femke Lutz, Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2419–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2419-2019, 2019
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Tillage practices are under-represented in global biogeochemical models so that assessments of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and climate mitigation options are hampered. We describe the implementation of tillage modules into the model LPJmL5.0, including multiple feedbacks between soil water, nitrogen, and productivity. By comparing simulation results with observational data, we show that the model can reproduce reported tillage effects on carbon and water dynamics and crop yields.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
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We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Katharina Waha, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2789–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle are of central importance for Earth system science. Nutrient limitations, especially from nitrogen, are important constraints on vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon cycle. We extended the well-established global vegetation, hydrology, and crop model LPJmL with a nitrogen cycle. We find significant improvement in global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity can now be largely reproduced by the model.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Christoph Müller, Jürgen Knauer, Werner von Bloh, Dieter Gerten, Jonas Jägermeyr, Wolfgang Lucht, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1377–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the now launched version 4.0 of the LPJmL biosphere, water, and agricultural model. The article is the second part to a comprehensive description of the LPJmL4 model. We have evaluated the model against various datasets of satellite observations, agricultural statistics, and in situ measurements by applying a range of metrics. We are able to show that the LPJmL4 model simulates many parameters and relations reasonably.
Susanne Rolinski, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, Isabelle Weindl, Anne Biewald, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Alberte Bondeau, Eltje R. Boons-Prins, Alexander F. Bouwman, Peter A. Leffelaar, Johnny A. te Roller, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 429–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-429-2018, 2018
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One-third of the global land area is covered with grasslands which are grazed by or mowed for livestock feed. These areas contribute significantly to the carbon capture from the atmosphere when managed sensibly. To assess the effect of this management, we included different options of grazing and mowing into the global model LPJmL 3.6. We found in polar regions even low grazing pressure leads to soil carbon loss whereas in temperate regions up to 1.4 livestock units per hectare can be sustained.
Matthias Forkel, Wouter Dorigo, Gitta Lasslop, Irene Teubner, Emilio Chuvieco, and Kirsten Thonicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4443–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, 2017
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Wildfires affect infrastructures, vegetation, and the atmosphere. However, it is unclear how fires should be accurately represented in global vegetation models. We introduce here a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach that allows us to explore sensitivities of burned areas to satellite and climate datasets. Our results suggest combining observations with data-driven and process-oriented fire models to better understand the role of fires in the Earth system.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Finn Müller-Hansen, Maja Schlüter, Michael Mäs, Jonathan F. Donges, Jakob J. Kolb, Kirsten Thonicke, and Jobst Heitzig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 977–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, 2017
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Today, human interactions with the Earth system lead to complex feedbacks between social and ecological dynamics. Modeling such feedbacks explicitly in Earth system models (ESMs) requires making assumptions about individual decision making and behavior, social interaction, and their aggregation. In this overview paper, we compare different modeling approaches and techniques and highlight important consequences of modeling assumptions. We illustrate them with examples from land-use modeling.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Finn Müller-Hansen, Manoel F. Cardoso, Eloi L. Dalla-Nora, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, 2017
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Deforestation and subsequent land uses in the Brazilian Amazon have huge impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, local climate and biodiversity. To better understand these land-cover changes, we apply complex systems methods uncovering spatial patterns in regional transition probabilities between land-cover types, which we estimate using maps derived from satellite imagery. The results show clusters of similar land-cover dynamics and thus complement studies at the local scale.
Fanny Langerwisch, Ariane Walz, Anja Rammig, Britta Tietjen, Kirsten Thonicke, and Wolfgang Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 953–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016, 2016
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Amazonia is heavily impacted by climate change and deforestation. During annual flooding terrigenous material is imported to the river, converted and finally exported to the ocean or the atmosphere. Changes in the vegetation alter therefore riverine carbon dynamics. Our results show that due to deforestation organic carbon amount will strongly decrease both in the river and exported to the ocean, while inorganic carbon amounts will increase, in the river as well as exported to the atmosphere.
F. Langerwisch, A. Walz, A. Rammig, B. Tietjen, K. Thonicke, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 559–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, 2016
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In Amazonia, carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding. We applied the newly developed model RivCM to several climate change scenarios to estimate potential changes in riverine carbon. We find that climate change causes substantial changes in riverine organic and inorganic carbon, as well as changes in carbon exported to the atmosphere and ocean. Such changes could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
M. Fader, S. Shi, W. von Bloh, A. Bondeau, and W. Cramer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 953–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-953-2016, 2016
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At present, the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems (EICS). By 2080–2090 the region may face an increase in gross irrigation requirements (IRs) of up to 74 % due to climate change and population growth. EICS may be able to compensate to some degree these increases. Most countries in the northern and eastern Mediterranean have a high risk of not being able to meet future IRs due to water scarcity.
S. Sippel, F. E. L. Otto, M. Forkel, M. R. Allen, B. P. Guillod, M. Heimann, M. Reichstein, S. I. Seneviratne, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, 2016
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We introduce a novel technique to bias correct climate model output for impact simulations that preserves its physical consistency and multivariate structure. The methodology considerably improves the representation of extremes in climatic variables relative to conventional bias correction strategies. Illustrative simulations of biosphere–atmosphere carbon and water fluxes with a biosphere model (LPJmL) show that the novel technique can be usefully applied to drive climate impact models.
M. Fader, W. von Bloh, S. Shi, A. Bondeau, and W. Cramer
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3545–3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3545-2015, 2015
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This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses.
The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With this development presented, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, and T. T. van Leeuwen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1321–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, 2015
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We conducted parallel simulations using a global land surface model, with and without fires being included, respectively. When the anthropogenic land cover change fire is excluded, we find that natural wildfires have reduced the global land carbon uptake by 0.3Pg C per year over 1901-2012. This is equivalent to 20% of the land carbon uptake in a world without fire. This fire-induced reduction in carbon uptake could be partly explained by climate variability, in particular the ENSO events.
S. Rolinski, A. Rammig, A. Walz, W. von Bloh, M. van Oijen, and K. Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 12, 1813–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015, 2015
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Extreme weather events can but do not have to cause extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions.
We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment and apply it to terrestrial ecosystems, defining a hazard as negative net biome productivity. In Europe, ecosystems are vulnerable to drought in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas vulnerability in Scandinavia is not caused by water shortages.
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
M. Forkel, N. Carvalhais, S. Schaphoff, W. v. Bloh, M. Migliavacca, M. Thurner, and K. Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 11, 7025–7050, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7025-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7025-2014, 2014
M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, 2014
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We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, S. Archibald, B. Poulter, W. M. Hao, S. Hantson, F. Mouillot, P. Friedlingstein, F. Maignan, and N. Viovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014
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ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model could moderately capture the decadal trend and variation of burned area during the 20th century, and the spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary vegetation fires. The model has a better performance in simulating fires for regions dominated by climate-driven fires, such as boreal forests. However, it has limited capability to reproduce the infrequent but important large fires in different ecosystems, where urgent model improvement is needed in the future.
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Climate and Earth system modeling
Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling
PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data
The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)
ZEMBA v1.0: an energy and moisture balance climate model to investigate Quaternary climate
Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2
TemDeep: a self-supervised framework for temporal downscaling of atmospheric fields at arbitrary time resolutions
The ensemble consistency test: from CESM to MPAS and beyond
Presentation, calibration and testing of the DCESS II Earth system model of intermediate complexity (version 1.0)
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0
Historical trends and controlling factors of isoprene emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data
From weather data to river runoff: using spatiotemporal convolutional networks for discharge forecasting
A Fortran–Python interface for integrating machine learning parameterization into earth system models
A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
The DOE E3SM version 2.1: overview and assessment of the impacts of parameterized ocean submesoscales
WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions
Modeling commercial-scale CO2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0
DiuSST: a conceptual model of diurnal warm layers for idealized atmospheric simulations with interactive sea surface temperature
High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
T&C-CROP: representing mechanistic crop growth with a terrestrial biosphere model (T&C, v1.5) – model formulation and validation
An updated non-intrusive, multi-scale, and flexible coupling interface in WRF 4.6.0
Monitoring and benchmarking Earth system model simulations with ESMValTool v2.12.0
The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK 0.14.0.11): a Python library for research and teaching
CropSuite v1.0 – a comprehensive open-source crop suitability model considering climate variability for climate impact assessment
ICON ComIn – the ICON Community Interface (ComIn version 0.1.0, with ICON version 2024.01-01)
Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models
A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models
The real challenges for climate and weather modelling on its way to sustained exascale performance: a case study using ICON (v2.6.6)
Improving the representation of major Indian crops in the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5) using site-scale crop data
Evaluation of CORDEX ERA5-forced NARCliM2.0 regional climate models over Australia using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.1.2
Design, evaluation, and future projections of the NARCliM2.0 CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia regional climate ensemble
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7
Amending the algorithm of aerosol–radiation interactions in WRF-Chem (v4.4)
The very-high-resolution configuration of the EC-Earth global model for HighResMIP
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts
Virtual Integration of Satellite and In-situ Observation Networks (VISION) v1.0: In-Situ Observations Simulator (ISO_simulator)
Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach
Advanced climate model evaluation with ESMValTool v2.11.0 using parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing
Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4
Subsurface hydrological controls on the short-term effects of hurricanes on nitrate–nitrogen runoff loading: a case study of Hurricane Ida using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (v2.1)
CARIB12: a regional Community Earth System Model/Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration of the Caribbean Sea
Process-based modeling framework for sustainable irrigation management at the regional scale: Integrating rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions
Architectural insights into and training methodology optimization of Pangu-Weather
Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances
Software sustainability of global impact models
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections
ISOM 1.0: a fully mesoscale-resolving idealized Southern Ocean model and the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions
A computationally lightweight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazards: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1
Martin Juckes, Karl E. Taylor, Fabrizio Antonio, David Brayshaw, Carlo Buontempo, Jian Cao, Paul J. Durack, Michio Kawamiya, Hyungjun Kim, Tomas Lovato, Chloe Mackallah, Matthew Mizielinski, Alessandra Nuzzo, Martina Stockhause, Daniele Visioni, Jeremy Walton, Briony Turner, Eleanor O'Rourke, and Beth Dingley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025, 2025
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The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used variables from Earth system models based on an assessment of data publication and download records from the largest archive of global climate projects.
Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Alexander Reedy, Matteo Turilli, Shantenu Jha, and Erica L. Ashe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2609–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2609-2025, 2025
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PaleoSTeHM v1.0 is a state-of-the-art framework designed to reconstruct past environmental conditions using geological data. Built on modern machine learning techniques, it efficiently handles the sparse and noisy nature of paleo-records, allowing scientists to make accurate and scalable inferences about past environmental change. By using flexible statistical models, PaleoSTeHM separates different sources of uncertainty, improving the precision of historical climate reconstructions.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
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Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, and Bin Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2443–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2443-2025, 2025
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Improving climate predictions has significant socio-economic impacts. In this study, we develop and apply a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system to a coupled climate model. The WCODA system improves simulations of ocean temperature and salinity across many global regions. This system is meant to advance our understanding of the ocean's role in climate predictability.
Liwen Wang, Qian Li, Qi Lv, Xuan Peng, and Wei You
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2427–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2427-2025, 2025
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Our research presents a novel deep learning approach called "TemDeep" for downscaling atmospheric variables at arbitrary time resolutions based on temporal coherence. Results show that our method can accurately recover evolution details superior to other methods, reaching 53.7 % in the restoration rate. Our findings are important for advancing weather forecasting models and enabling more precise and reliable predictions to support disaster preparedness, agriculture, and sustainable development.
Teo Price-Broncucia, Allison Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Michael Duda, and Rebecca Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2349–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2349-2025, 2025
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The ensemble consistency test (ECT) and its ultrafast variant (UF-ECT) have become powerful tools in the development community for the identification of unwanted changes in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We develop a generalized setup framework to enable easy adoption of the ECT approach for other model developers and communities. This framework specifies test parameters to accurately characterize model variability and balance test sensitivity and computational cost.
Esteban Fernández Villanueva and Gary Shaffer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2161–2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2161-2025, 2025
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We describe, calibrate and test the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) II model, a new, broad, adaptable and fast Earth system model. DCESS II is designed for global simulations over timescales of years to millions of years using limited computer resources like a personal computer. With its flexibility and comprehensive treatment of the global carbon cycle, DCESS II is a useful, computationally friendly tool for simulations of past climates as well as for future Earth system projections.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
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Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
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Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tao Zhang, Cyril Morcrette, Meng Zhang, Wuyin Lin, Shaocheng Xie, Ye Liu, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Joana Rodrigues
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1917–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1917-2025, 2025
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Earth system models (ESMs) struggle with the uncertainties associated with parameterizing subgrid physics. Machine learning (ML) algorithms offer a solution by learning the important relationships and features from high-resolution models. To incorporate ML parameterizations into ESMs, we develop a Fortran–Python interface that allows for calling Python functions within Fortran-based ESMs. Through two case studies, this interface demonstrates its feasibility, modularity, and effectiveness.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Katherine M. Smith, Alice M. Barthel, LeAnn M. Conlon, Luke P. Van Roekel, Anthony Bartoletti, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Chengzhu Zhang, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, James J. Benedict, Gautam Bisht, Yan Feng, Walter Hannah, Bryce E. Harrop, Nicole Jeffery, Wuyin Lin, Po-Lun Ma, Mathew E. Maltrud, Mark R. Petersen, Balwinder Singh, Qi Tang, Teklu Tesfa, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Shaocheng Xie, Xue Zheng, Karthik Balaguru, Oluwayemi Garuba, Peter Gleckler, Aixue Hu, Jiwoo Lee, Ben Moore-Maley, and Ana C. Ordoñez
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1613–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1613-2025, 2025
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Version 2.1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) adds the Fox-Kemper et al. (2011) mixed-layer eddy parameterization, which restratifies the ocean surface layer through an overturning streamfunction. Results include surface layer bias reduction in temperature, salinity, and sea ice extent in the North Atlantic; a small strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and improvements to many atmospheric climatological variables.
Huilin Huang, Yun Qian, Gautam Bisht, Jiali Wang, Tirthankar Chakraborty, Dalei Hao, Jianfeng Li, Travis Thurber, Balwinder Singh, Zhao Yang, Ye Liu, Pengfei Xue, William J. Sacks, Ethan Coon, and Robert Hetland
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1427-2025, 2025
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We integrate the E3SM Land Model (ELM) with the WRF model through the Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This framework includes a top-level driver, LILAC, for variable communication between WRF and ELM and ESMF caps for ELM initialization, execution, and finalization. The LILAC–ESMF framework maintains the integrity of the ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future ELM model developments to WRF-ELM.
Michael Nole, Jonah Bartrand, Fawz Naim, and Glenn Hammond
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1413–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1413-2025, 2025
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Safe carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most severe effects of climate change. We present a simulation framework for modeling CO2 storage beneath the seafloor, where CO2 can form a solid. This can aid in permanent CO2 storage for long periods of time. Our models show what a commercial-scale CO2 injection would look like in a marine environment. We discuss what would need to be considered when designing a subsea CO2 injection.
Reyk Börner, Jan O. Haerter, and Romain Fiévet
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1333–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1333-2025, 2025
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The daily cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) impacts clouds above the ocean and could influence the clustering of thunderstorms linked to extreme rainfall and hurricanes. However, daily SST variability is often poorly represented in modeling studies of how clouds cluster. We present a simple, wind-responsive model of upper-ocean temperature for use in atmospheric simulations. Evaluating the model against observations, we show that it performs significantly better than common slab models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
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HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Jordi Buckley Paules, Simone Fatichi, Bonnie Warring, and Athanasios Paschalis
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1287–1305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1287-2025, 2025
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We present and validate enhancements to the process-based T&C model aimed at improving its representation of crop growth and management practices. The updated model, T&C-CROP, enables applications such as analysing the hydrological and carbon storage impacts of land use transitions (e.g. conversions between crops, forests, and pastures) and optimizing irrigation and fertilization strategies in response to climate change.
Sébastien Masson, Swen Jullien, Eric Maisonnave, David Gill, Guillaume Samson, Mathieu Le Corre, and Lionel Renault
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1241–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1241-2025, 2025
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This article details a new feature we implemented in the popular regional atmospheric model WRF. This feature allows for data exchange between WRF and any other model (e.g. an ocean model) using the coupling library Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea–Ice–Soil Model Coupling Toolkit (OASIS3-MCT). This coupling interface is designed to be non-intrusive, flexible and modular. It also offers the possibility of taking into account the nested zooms used in WRF or in the models with which it is coupled.
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1169–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1169-2025, 2025
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Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the ESMValTool software package allow one to compare and visualize a model's performance with respect to reproducing observations in the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. We aim to help model developers assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.
Ulrich G. Wortmann, Tina Tsan, Mahrukh Niazi, Irene A. Ma, Ruben Navasardyan, Magnus-Roland Marun, Bernardo S. Chede, Jingwen Zhong, and Morgan Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1155–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1155-2025, 2025
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The Earth Science Box Modeling Toolkit (ESBMTK) is a user-friendly Python library that simplifies the creation of models to study earth system processes, such as the carbon cycle and ocean chemistry. It enhances learning by emphasizing concepts over programming and is accessible to students and researchers alike. By automating complex calculations and promoting code clarity, ESBMTK accelerates model development while improving reproducibility and the usability of scientific research.
Florian Zabel, Matthias Knüttel, and Benjamin Poschlod
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1067–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1067-2025, 2025
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CropSuite is a new open-source crop suitability model. It provides a GUI and a wide range of options, including a spatial downscaling of climate data. We apply CropSuite to 48 staple and opportunity crops at a 1 km spatial resolution in Africa. We find that climate variability significantly impacts suitable areas but also affects optimal sowing dates and multiple cropping potential. The results provide valuable information for climate impact assessments, adaptation, and land-use planning.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
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The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Daniel Ries, Katherine Goode, Kellie McClernon, and Benjamin Hillman
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1041–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1041-2025, 2025
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Machine learning has advanced research in the climate science domain, but its models are difficult to understand. In order to understand the impacts and consequences of climate interventions such as stratospheric aerosol injection, complex models are often necessary. We use a case study to illustrate how we can understand the inner workings of a complex model. We present this technique as an exploratory tool that can be used to quickly discover and assess relationships in complex climate data.
Bo Dong, Paul Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter Gleckler, Kristin Chang, and Travis A. O'Brien
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-961-2025, 2025
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A metrics package designed for easy analysis of atmospheric river (AR) characteristics and statistics is presented. The tool is efficient for diagnosing systematic AR bias in climate models and useful for evaluating new AR characteristics in model simulations. In climate models, landfalling AR precipitation shows dry biases globally, and AR tracks are farther poleward (equatorward) in the North and South Atlantic (South Pacific and Indian Ocean).
Panagiotis Adamidis, Erik Pfister, Hendryk Bockelmann, Dominik Zobel, Jens-Olaf Beismann, and Marek Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 905–919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025, 2025
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In this paper, we investigated performance indicators of the climate model ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) on different compute architectures to answer the question of how to generate high-resolution climate simulations. Evidently, it is not enough to use more computing units of the conventionally used architectures; higher memory throughput is the most promising approach. More potential can be gained from single-node optimization rather than simply increasing the number of compute nodes.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
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The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jason P. Evans, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Yue Li, and Matthew L. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 703–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-703-2025, 2025
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We evaluate the skill in simulating the Australian climate of some of the latest generation of regional climate models. We show when and where the models simulate this climate with high skill versus model limitations. We show how new models perform relative to the previous-generation models, assessing how model design features may underlie key performance improvements. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Jatin Kala, Julia Andrys, Christopher Thomas, Dipayan Choudhury, Carlos Rocha, Stephen White, Yue Li, Moutassem El Rafei, Rishav Goyal, Matthew L. Riley, and Jyothi Lingala
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 671–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-671-2025, 2025
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We introduce new climate models that simulate Australia’s future climate at regional scales, including at an unprecedented resolution of 4 km for 1950–2100. We describe the model design process used to create these new climate models. We show how the new models perform relative to previous-generation models and compare their climate projections. This work is of national and international relevance as it can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025
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Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone, and greenhouse gases alone, among others, are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies, and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Jiawang Feng, Chun Zhao, Qiuyan Du, Zining Yang, and Chen Jin
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 585–603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-585-2025, 2025
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In this study, we improved the calculation of how aerosols in the air interact with radiation in WRF-Chem. The original model used a simplified method, but we developed a more accurate approach. We found that this method significantly changes the properties of the estimated aerosols and their effects on radiation, especially for dust aerosols. It also impacts the simulated weather conditions. Our work highlights the importance of correctly representing aerosol–radiation interactions in models.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
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We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
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The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
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The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Maria R. Russo, Sadie L. Bartholomew, David Hassell, Alex M. Mason, Erica Neininger, A. James Perman, David A. J. Sproson, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Nathan Luke Abraham
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 181–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-181-2025, 2025
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Observational data and modelling capabilities have expanded in recent years, but there are still barriers preventing these two data sources from being used in synergy. Proper comparison requires generating, storing, and handling a large amount of data. This work describes the first step in the development of a new set of software tools, the VISION toolkit, which can enable the easy and efficient integration of observational and model data required for model evaluation.
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo, Paula Harder, Christoph Menz, Peter Hoffmann, Iulii Didovets, and Fred F. Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 161–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-161-2025, 2025
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We tried to contribute to a local climate change impact study in central Asia, a region that is water-scarce and vulnerable to global climate change. We use regional models and machine learning to produce reliable local data from global climate models. We find that regional models show more realistic and detailed changes in heavy precipitation than global climate models. Our work can help assess the future risks of extreme events and plan adaptation strategies in central Asia.
Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Jörg Benke, Ruth Comer, Birgit Hassler, Emma Hogan, Peter Kalverla, Axel Lauer, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Francesco Nattino, Patrick Peglar, Valeriu Predoi, Stef Smeets, Stephen Worsley, Martin Yeo, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-236, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. Here, we describe recent significant improvements of ESMValTool’s computational efficiency including parallel, out-of-core, and distributed computing. Evaluations with the enhanced version of ESMValTool are faster, use less computational resources, and can handle input data larger than the available memory.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
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Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Yilin Fang, Hoang Viet Tran, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 19–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-19-2025, 2025
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Hurricanes may worsen water quality in the lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) by increasing nutrient runoff. We found that runoff parameterizations greatly affect nitrate–nitrogen runoff simulated using an Earth system land model. Our simulations predicted increased nitrogen runoff in the LMRB during Hurricane Ida in 2021, albeit less pronounced than the observations, indicating areas for model improvement to better understand and manage nutrient runoff loss during hurricanes in the region.
Giovanni Seijo-Ellis, Donata Giglio, Gustavo Marques, and Frank Bryan
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8989–9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024, 2024
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A CESM–MOM6 regional configuration of the Caribbean Sea was developed in response to the rising need for high-resolution models for climate impact studies. The configuration is validated for the period 2000–2020 and improves significant errors in a low-resolution model. Oceanic properties are well represented. Patterns of freshwater associated with the Amazon River are well captured, and the mean flows of ocean waters across multiple passages in the Caribbean Sea agree with observations.
Yan Bo, Hao Liang, Tao Li, and Feng Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-212, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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This study proposed an advancing framework for modeling regional rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The framework integrated a process-based soil-crop model with key physiological effects, a novel model upscaling method, and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm at a parallel computing platform. The framework provides a valuable tool for irrigation optimization to deliver co-benefits of ensuring food production, reducing water use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Deifilia To, Julian Quinting, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour, Markus Götz, Achim Streit, and Charlotte Debus
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8873–8884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8873-2024, 2024
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Pangu-Weather is a breakthrough machine learning model in medium-range weather forecasting that considers 3D atmospheric information. We show that using a simpler 2D framework improves robustness, speeds up training, and reduces computational needs by 20 %–30 %. We introduce a training procedure that varies the importance of atmospheric variables over time to speed up training convergence. Decreasing computational demand increases the accessibility of training and working with the model.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Seung H. Baek, Paul A. Ullrich, Bo Dong, and Jiwoo Lee
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8665–8681, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024, 2024
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We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling.
Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Daniel S. Katz, and Robert Reinecke
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8593–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8593-2024, 2024
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Research software is vital for scientific progress but is often developed by scientists with limited skills, time, and funding, leading to challenges in usability and maintenance. Our study across 10 sectors shows strengths in version control, open-source licensing, and documentation while emphasizing the need for containerization and code quality. We recommend workshops; code quality metrics; funding; and following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) standards.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
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Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Jingwei Xie, Xi Wang, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Jiangfeng Yu, Zipeng Yu, Junlin Wei, and Xiang Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8469–8493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8469-2024, 2024
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We propose the concept of mesoscale ocean direct numerical simulation (MODNS), which should resolve the first baroclinic deformation radius and ensure the numerical dissipative effects do not directly contaminate the mesoscale motions. It can be a benchmark for testing mesoscale ocean large eddy simulation (MOLES) methods in ocean models. We build an idealized Southern Ocean model using MITgcm to generate a type of MODNS. We also illustrate the diversity of multiscale eddy interactions.
Emily Black, John Ellis, and Ross I. Maidment
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8353–8372, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8353-2024, 2024
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We present General TAMSAT-ALERT, a computationally lightweight and versatile tool for generating ensemble forecasts from time series data. General TAMSAT-ALERT is capable of combining multiple streams of monitoring and meteorological forecasting data into probabilistic hazard assessments. In this way, it complements existing systems and enhances their utility for actionable hazard assessment.
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Short summary
The impacts of climate change require strategies for climate adaptation. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to study the effects of multiple processes in the biosphere under climate change. There is a demand for a better computational performance of the models. In this paper, the photosynthesis model in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land DGVM (4.0.002) was examined. We found a better numerical solution of a nonlinear equation. A significant run time reduction was possible.
The impacts of climate change require strategies for climate adaptation. Dynamic global...
