Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
22 Jun 2021
Development and technical paper |
| 22 Jun 2021
| 22 Jun 2021
Modifying emissions scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for CovidMIP
Robin D. Lamboll
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
Chris D. Jones
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Ragnhild B. Skeie
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Stephanie Fiedler
Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics, Bonn/Cologne, Germany
Bjørn H. Samset
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Nathan P. Gillett
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, Canada
Joeri Rogelj
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Piers M. Forster
Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- AR6 scenarios database: an assessment of current practices and future recommendations G. Peters et al. 10.1038/s44168-023-00050-9
- A New Methodology for Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis under Climate Change Conditions Based on Machine Learning, Multi Criteria Decision Making and Monte Carlo Methods M. Kadkhodazadeh et al. 10.3390/su14052601
- Co-benefits of carbon neutrality in enhancing and stabilizing solar and wind energy Y. Lei et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01692-7
- Projection of Long‐Term Climate Change in China Under COVID‐19 Recovery Emission Scenarios C. Tian et al. 10.1029/2023JD039197
- COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions have the potential to explain over half of the coincident increase in global atmospheric methane D. Stevenson et al. 10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022
- Ozone Anomalies in the Free Troposphere During the COVID‐19 Pandemic I. Bouarar et al. 10.1029/2021GL094204
- Avoidable heat risk under scenarios of carbon neutrality by mid-century J. Zhang & Q. You 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164679
- East Asian summer monsoon enhanced by COVID-19 C. He et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06247-8
- Towards near-real-time air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions: lessons learned from multiple estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic M. Guevara et al. 10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023
- Amplified Interhemispheric Rainfall Contrast in Boreal Summer Due To Reduction in Anthropogenic Emissions Under COVID‐MIP Green Economic‐Recovery Scenarios X. Yu et al. 10.1029/2023EF003743
- Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery S. Fiedler et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105866
- Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013–2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging L. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159972
- COVID-19 perturbation on US air quality and human health impact assessment J. He et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad483
- Predicting rainfall response to climate change and uncertainty analysis: Introducing a novel downscaling CMIP6 models technique based on the stacking ensemble machine learning M. Anaraki et al. 10.2166/wcc.2023.477
- Mitigating ozone damage to ecosystem productivity through sectoral and regional emission controls: a case study in the Yangtze River Delta, China Y. Lei et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6ff7
- Numerical simulation of the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on tropospheric composition and aerosol radiative forcing in Europe S. Reifenberg et al. 10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022
- Global-scale future climate projections from ACCESS model contributions to CMIP6 S. Schroeter et al. 10.1071/ES23029
- Trends in atmospheric methane concentrations since 1990 were driven and modified by anthropogenic emissions R. Skeie et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00969-1
- Projected changes in seasonal and extreme summertime temperature and precipitation in India in response to COVID-19 recovery emissions scenarios J. D’Souza et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1b
- Ship emission projections based on time series forecasting model for sustainable shipping in the strait of Malacca and Singapore K. Ten et al. 10.1088/1757-899X/1294/1/012038
- How well do Earth system models reproduce the observed aerosol response to rapid emission reductions? A COVID-19 case study R. Digby et al. 10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024
- Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid‐19 and Post‐Pandemic Recovery Scenarios X. Yu et al. 10.1029/2021JD036251
- Spatial Resolved Surface Ozone with Urban and Rural Differentiation during 1990–2019: A Space–Time Bayesian Neural Network Downscaler H. Sun et al. 10.1021/acs.est.1c04797
- Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020 S. Peng et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-05447-w
- Avoided population exposure to extreme heat under two scenarios of global carbon neutrality by 2050 and 2060 Y. Lei et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8e1b
- Beyond the lockdowns: satellite observations of aerosol optical depth through 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic S. Smith et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7889
- Hemispheric-wide climate response to regional COVID-19-related aerosol emission reductions: the prominent role of atmospheric circulation adjustments N. Fahrenbach & M. Bollasina 10.5194/acp-23-877-2023
- Emissions Background, Climate, and Season Determine the Impacts of Past and Future Pandemic Lockdowns on Atmospheric Composition and Climate J. Hickman et al. 10.1029/2022EF002959
- The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP C. Jones et al. 10.1029/2020GL091883
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- AR6 scenarios database: an assessment of current practices and future recommendations G. Peters et al. 10.1038/s44168-023-00050-9
- A New Methodology for Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis under Climate Change Conditions Based on Machine Learning, Multi Criteria Decision Making and Monte Carlo Methods M. Kadkhodazadeh et al. 10.3390/su14052601
- Co-benefits of carbon neutrality in enhancing and stabilizing solar and wind energy Y. Lei et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01692-7
- Projection of Long‐Term Climate Change in China Under COVID‐19 Recovery Emission Scenarios C. Tian et al. 10.1029/2023JD039197
- COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions have the potential to explain over half of the coincident increase in global atmospheric methane D. Stevenson et al. 10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022
- Ozone Anomalies in the Free Troposphere During the COVID‐19 Pandemic I. Bouarar et al. 10.1029/2021GL094204
- Avoidable heat risk under scenarios of carbon neutrality by mid-century J. Zhang & Q. You 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164679
- East Asian summer monsoon enhanced by COVID-19 C. He et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06247-8
- Towards near-real-time air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions: lessons learned from multiple estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic M. Guevara et al. 10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023
- Amplified Interhemispheric Rainfall Contrast in Boreal Summer Due To Reduction in Anthropogenic Emissions Under COVID‐MIP Green Economic‐Recovery Scenarios X. Yu et al. 10.1029/2023EF003743
- Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery S. Fiedler et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105866
- Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013–2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging L. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159972
- COVID-19 perturbation on US air quality and human health impact assessment J. He et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad483
- Predicting rainfall response to climate change and uncertainty analysis: Introducing a novel downscaling CMIP6 models technique based on the stacking ensemble machine learning M. Anaraki et al. 10.2166/wcc.2023.477
- Mitigating ozone damage to ecosystem productivity through sectoral and regional emission controls: a case study in the Yangtze River Delta, China Y. Lei et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6ff7
- Numerical simulation of the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on tropospheric composition and aerosol radiative forcing in Europe S. Reifenberg et al. 10.5194/acp-22-10901-2022
- Global-scale future climate projections from ACCESS model contributions to CMIP6 S. Schroeter et al. 10.1071/ES23029
- Trends in atmospheric methane concentrations since 1990 were driven and modified by anthropogenic emissions R. Skeie et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00969-1
- Projected changes in seasonal and extreme summertime temperature and precipitation in India in response to COVID-19 recovery emissions scenarios J. D’Souza et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1b
- Ship emission projections based on time series forecasting model for sustainable shipping in the strait of Malacca and Singapore K. Ten et al. 10.1088/1757-899X/1294/1/012038
- How well do Earth system models reproduce the observed aerosol response to rapid emission reductions? A COVID-19 case study R. Digby et al. 10.5194/acp-24-2077-2024
- Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid‐19 and Post‐Pandemic Recovery Scenarios X. Yu et al. 10.1029/2021JD036251
- Spatial Resolved Surface Ozone with Urban and Rural Differentiation during 1990–2019: A Space–Time Bayesian Neural Network Downscaler H. Sun et al. 10.1021/acs.est.1c04797
- Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020 S. Peng et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-05447-w
- Avoided population exposure to extreme heat under two scenarios of global carbon neutrality by 2050 and 2060 Y. Lei et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8e1b
- Beyond the lockdowns: satellite observations of aerosol optical depth through 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic S. Smith et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7889
- Hemispheric-wide climate response to regional COVID-19-related aerosol emission reductions: the prominent role of atmospheric circulation adjustments N. Fahrenbach & M. Bollasina 10.5194/acp-23-877-2023
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Emissions Background, Climate, and Season Determine the Impacts of Past and Future Pandemic Lockdowns on Atmospheric Composition and Climate J. Hickman et al. 10.1029/2022EF002959
- The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP C. Jones et al. 10.1029/2020GL091883
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 Apr 2024
Short summary
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human...
