Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
22 Jun 2021
Development and technical paper |
| 22 Jun 2021
| 22 Jun 2021
Modifying emissions scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for CovidMIP
Robin D. Lamboll
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
Chris D. Jones
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Ragnhild B. Skeie
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Stephanie Fiedler
Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics, Bonn/Cologne, Germany
Bjørn H. Samset
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Nathan P. Gillett
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, Canada
Joeri Rogelj
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Piers M. Forster
Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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- Avoidable heat risk under scenarios of carbon neutrality by mid-century J. Zhang & Q. You https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164679
- Evaluating urban water ecological carrying capacity and obstacles to its achievement using an integrated DPSIR-based approach: A case study of 16 cities in Hubei Province, China Q. Yue et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177430
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- Towards near-real-time air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions: lessons learned from multiple estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic M. Guevara et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023
- Amplified Interhemispheric Rainfall Contrast in Boreal Summer Due To Reduction in Anthropogenic Emissions Under COVID‐MIP Green Economic‐Recovery Scenarios X. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003743
- Doing better rather than promising more: A basic principle applicable to both climate modelling and climate policies H. Douville & J. Añel https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000466
- Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery S. Fiedler et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105866
- Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013–2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging L. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159972
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- Global Carbon Budget 2024 P. Friedlingstein et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025
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- Saharan dust impacts on the surface mass balance of Argentière Glacier (French Alps) L. Roussel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5201-2025
- Hemispheric-wide climate response to regional COVID-19-related aerosol emission reductions: the prominent role of atmospheric circulation adjustments N. Fahrenbach & M. Bollasina https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-877-2023
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Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 Jun 2026
Short summary
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human...
