Geoscientific Model Development
Geoscientific Model Development
GMD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
Development and technical paper
 | 
25 Feb 2020
Development and technical paper |  | 25 Feb 2020

Simulation of extreme heat waves with empirical importance sampling

Pascal Yiou and Aglaé Jézéquel

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Short summary
This paper presents an adaptation of a method of "importance sampling" to simulate large ensembles of extreme heat waves (i.e., the most extreme heat waves that could be), given a fixed returned period. We illustrate how this algorithm works for European heat waves and investigate the atmospheric features of such ensembles of events. We argue that such an algorithm can be used to simulate other types of events, including cold spells or prolonged episodes of precipitation.
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