Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
25 Feb 2020
Development and technical paper |
| 25 Feb 2020
| 25 Feb 2020
Simulation of extreme heat waves with empirical importance sampling
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL and U Paris Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Aglaé Jézéquel
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, IPSL and U Paris-Sorbonne, 75005 Paris, France
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Cited
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science V. Gálfi et al. 10.1007/s40766-021-00020-z
- Using analogues to predict changes in future UK heatwaves* E. Yule et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad57e3
- Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts Z. Hao et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241
- Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil–atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region M. Lemus-Canovas et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-2503-2025
- Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting E. Fischer et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- Using rare event algorithms to understand the statistics and dynamics of extreme heatwave seasons in South Asia C. Le Priol et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad8027
- How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation P. Yiou et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518
- Very rare heat extremes: quantifying and understanding using ensemble re-initialization C. Gessner et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0916.1
- Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate E. Fischer et al. 10.1038/s43017-025-00681-y
- Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics P. Yiou et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5
- A weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will affect future heat waves by mostly attenuating their severity D. Duarte et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07736-2
- Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.5194/esd-12-103-2021
- Mortality impacts of the most extreme heat events T. Matthews et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00635-w
- A multivariate and space-time stochastic weather generator using a latent Gaussian framework S. Obakrim et al. 10.1007/s00477-024-02897-8
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
- Effects of the 2018 European summer heatwave on the incidence of sporadic bacterial gastroenteritis in a temperate maritime climate region (Republic of Ireland) M. Boudou et al. 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101105
- Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France C. Cadiou & P. Yiou 10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025
- Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling K. van der Wiel et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100350
- Prediction and projection of heatwaves D. Domeisen et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z
- Fast generation of high-dimensional spatial extremes H. Van de Vyver 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100732
- Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate R. Noyelle et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf679
- Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling F. Pons et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science V. Gálfi et al. 10.1007/s40766-021-00020-z
- Using analogues to predict changes in future UK heatwaves* E. Yule et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad57e3
- Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts Z. Hao et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241
- Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil–atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region M. Lemus-Canovas et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-2503-2025
- Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting E. Fischer et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- Using rare event algorithms to understand the statistics and dynamics of extreme heatwave seasons in South Asia C. Le Priol et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad8027
- How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation P. Yiou et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518
- Very rare heat extremes: quantifying and understanding using ensemble re-initialization C. Gessner et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0916.1
- Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate E. Fischer et al. 10.1038/s43017-025-00681-y
- Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics P. Yiou et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5
- A weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will affect future heat waves by mostly attenuating their severity D. Duarte et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07736-2
- Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.5194/esd-12-103-2021
- Mortality impacts of the most extreme heat events T. Matthews et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00635-w
- A multivariate and space-time stochastic weather generator using a latent Gaussian framework S. Obakrim et al. 10.1007/s00477-024-02897-8
- Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? S. Sippel et al. 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
- Effects of the 2018 European summer heatwave on the incidence of sporadic bacterial gastroenteritis in a temperate maritime climate region (Republic of Ireland) M. Boudou et al. 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101105
- Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France C. Cadiou & P. Yiou 10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025
- Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling K. van der Wiel et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100350
- Prediction and projection of heatwaves D. Domeisen et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z
- Fast generation of high-dimensional spatial extremes H. Van de Vyver 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100732
- Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate R. Noyelle et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf679
- Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling F. Pons et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651
Latest update: 08 Oct 2025
Short summary
This paper presents an adaptation of a method of "importance sampling" to simulate large ensembles of extreme heat waves (i.e., the most extreme heat waves that could be), given a fixed returned period. We illustrate how this algorithm works for European heat waves and investigate the atmospheric features of such ensembles of events. We argue that such an algorithm can be used to simulate other types of events, including cold spells or prolonged episodes of precipitation.
This paper presents an adaptation of a method of "importance sampling" to simulate large...
