Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
02 Jan 2020
Development and technical paper |
| 02 Jan 2020
| 02 Jan 2020
Volcanic ash forecast using ensemble-based data assimilation: an ensemble transform Kalman filter coupled with the FALL3D-7.2 model (ETKF–FALL3D version 1.0)
Soledad Osores
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Juan Ruiz
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, CONICET, UBA, UMI-IFAECI (CNRS-CONICET-UBA), Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires. Buenos Aires, Argentina, Argentina
Arnau Folch
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Estela Collini
Servicio de Hidrografía Naval (SHN), Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius: A lesson from the past and the need of a multidisciplinary approach for developments in volcanology D. Doronzo et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104072
- Reconstructing tephra fall deposits via ensemble-based data assimilation techniques L. Mingari et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023
- Inversion and forward estimation with process-based models: An investigation into cost functions, uncertainty-based weights and model-data fusion M. Rabonza et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105750
- Estimating volcanic ash emissions using retrieved satellite ash columns and inverse ash transport modeling using VolcanicAshInversion v1.2.1, within the operational eEMEP (emergency European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) volcanic plume forecasting system (version rv4_17) A. Brodtkorb et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-1957-2024
- Sensitivity of Volcanic Ash Dispersion Modelling to Input Grain Size Distribution Based on Hydromagmatic and Magmatic Deposits S. Osman et al. 10.3390/atmos11060567
- Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations Ø. Seland et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020
- Ensemble-Based Forecast of Volcanic Clouds Using FALL3D-8.1 A. Folch et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.741841
- The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE): Implementation, results, and roadmap for the second phase A. Folch et al. 10.1016/j.future.2023.04.006
- Atmospheric vertical velocity - a crucial component in understanding proximal deposition of volcanic ash A. Poulidis et al. 10.1016/j.epsl.2021.116980
- Dust storm forecasting through coupling LOTOS-EUROS with localized ensemble Kalman filter M. Pang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119831
- Particle-filter-based volcanic ash emission inversion applied to a hypothetical sub-Plinian Eyjafjallajökull eruption using the Ensemble for Stochastic Integration of Atmospheric Simulations (ESIAS-chem) version 1.0 P. Franke et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1037-2022
- Toward a Real-Time Analysis of Column Height by Visible Cameras: An Example from Mt. Etna, in Italy A. Aravena et al. 10.3390/rs15102595
- Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019 A. Capponi et al. 10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022
- Data assimilation of volcanic aerosol observations using FALL3D+PDAF L. Mingari et al. 10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022
- Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling at the London VAAC: A Review of Developments since the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Ash Cloud F. Beckett et al. 10.3390/atmos11040352
- A fast compilation of the VONA messages using a computer-assisted procedure P. Bonfanti et al. 10.1007/s00445-024-01728-6
- Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of Volcanic Ash Clouds from Satellite Observations: Application to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna Explosive Eruption F. Pardini et al. 10.3390/atmos11040359
- A Computational Methodology for the Calibration of Tephra Transport Nowcasting at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan A. Poulidis et al. 10.3390/atmos12010104
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The 79 CE eruption of Vesuvius: A lesson from the past and the need of a multidisciplinary approach for developments in volcanology D. Doronzo et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104072
- Reconstructing tephra fall deposits via ensemble-based data assimilation techniques L. Mingari et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023
- Inversion and forward estimation with process-based models: An investigation into cost functions, uncertainty-based weights and model-data fusion M. Rabonza et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105750
- Estimating volcanic ash emissions using retrieved satellite ash columns and inverse ash transport modeling using VolcanicAshInversion v1.2.1, within the operational eEMEP (emergency European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) volcanic plume forecasting system (version rv4_17) A. Brodtkorb et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-1957-2024
- Sensitivity of Volcanic Ash Dispersion Modelling to Input Grain Size Distribution Based on Hydromagmatic and Magmatic Deposits S. Osman et al. 10.3390/atmos11060567
- Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations Ø. Seland et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020
- Ensemble-Based Forecast of Volcanic Clouds Using FALL3D-8.1 A. Folch et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.741841
- The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE): Implementation, results, and roadmap for the second phase A. Folch et al. 10.1016/j.future.2023.04.006
- Atmospheric vertical velocity - a crucial component in understanding proximal deposition of volcanic ash A. Poulidis et al. 10.1016/j.epsl.2021.116980
- Dust storm forecasting through coupling LOTOS-EUROS with localized ensemble Kalman filter M. Pang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119831
- Particle-filter-based volcanic ash emission inversion applied to a hypothetical sub-Plinian Eyjafjallajökull eruption using the Ensemble for Stochastic Integration of Atmospheric Simulations (ESIAS-chem) version 1.0 P. Franke et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1037-2022
- Toward a Real-Time Analysis of Column Height by Visible Cameras: An Example from Mt. Etna, in Italy A. Aravena et al. 10.3390/rs15102595
- Refining an ensemble of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite retrievals: Raikoke 2019 A. Capponi et al. 10.5194/acp-22-6115-2022
- Data assimilation of volcanic aerosol observations using FALL3D+PDAF L. Mingari et al. 10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022
- Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling at the London VAAC: A Review of Developments since the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Ash Cloud F. Beckett et al. 10.3390/atmos11040352
- A fast compilation of the VONA messages using a computer-assisted procedure P. Bonfanti et al. 10.1007/s00445-024-01728-6
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of Volcanic Ash Clouds from Satellite Observations: Application to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna Explosive Eruption F. Pardini et al. 10.3390/atmos11040359
- A Computational Methodology for the Calibration of Tephra Transport Nowcasting at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan A. Poulidis et al. 10.3390/atmos12010104
Latest update: 22 Apr 2024
Short summary
Volcanic ash dispersal forecasts are routinely used to avoid aircraft encounters with volcanic ash. However, the accuracy of these forecasts depends on the knowledge of key factors that are usually difficult to observe directly. In this work we apply an inverse methodology to improve ash concentration forecasts. Results are encouraging, showing that accurate estimations of ash emissions can be performed using the proposed approach, leading to an improvement in ash concentration forecasts.
Volcanic ash dispersal forecasts are routinely used to avoid aircraft encounters with volcanic...
