Articles | Volume 12, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions
Chris D. Jones
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Charles Koven
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Andrew H. MacDougall
St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, B2G 2W5, Canada
H. Damon Matthews
Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada
Kirsten Zickfeld
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6,
Canada
Joeri Rogelj
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361
Laxenburg, Austria
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial
College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Katarzyna B. Tokarska
School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich,
Switzerland
Nathan P. Gillett
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146
Hamburg, Germany
Malte Meinshausen
Climate & Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Victoria, Australia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Nadine Mengis
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6,
Canada
Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR), Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Roland Séférian
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM),
Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Michael Eby
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria,
Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
Friedrich A. Burger
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
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- The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization S. Palazzo Corner et al.
- The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty S. Baur et al.
- Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets M. Sigmond et al.
- Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2 A. MacDougall et al.
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- AR6 scenarios database: an assessment of current practices and future recommendations G. Peters et al.
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions A. Borowiak et al.
- Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model N. Wunderling et al.
- Evaluation of earth system model and atmospheric inversion using total column CO2 observations from GOSAT and OCO-2 P. Patra et al.
- Hysteresis and irreversibility of global drought patterns in response to CO2 mitigation efforts S. Mondal et al.
- Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets C. Jones & P. Friedlingstein
- The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 2: The global carbon cycle M. Willeit et al.
- The Australian Earth System Model: ACCESS-ESM1.5 T. Ziehn et al.
- Evaluation of CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM‐ESM2‐1: Role of Earth System Processes in Present‐Day and Future Climate R. Séférian et al.
- A normalised framework for the Zero Emissions Commitment R. Williams et al.
- Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels A. King et al.
- Implications of non-linearities between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming for assessing the remaining carbon budget Z. Nicholls et al.
- Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming M. Dvorak et al.
- European heat extremes under net-zero emissions E. Alastrué de Asenjo et al.
- The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations B. Sanderson
- Quantifying non-CO2 contributions to remaining carbon budgets S. Jenkins et al.
- Negative CO2 emissions for long-term mitigation of extremes in land hydrological cycle J. Shin et al.
- Warming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes N. Gillett
- ACCESS datasets for CMIP6: methodology and idealised experiments C. Mackallah et al.
- The Multi‐Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy S. Jenkins et al.
- flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions B. Sanderson et al.
- Assessing the costs of historical inaction on climate change B. Sanderson & B. O’Neill
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- Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change A. MacDougall
- Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets R. Lamboll et al.
- Regionally aggregated, stitched and de‐drifted CMIP‐climate data, processed with netCDF‐SCM v2.0.0 Z. Nicholls et al.
- Can Global Mean Temperatures be Held to 1.5∘C or Less without Major Efforts in Carbon Removal/Geoengineering? D. Wuebbles
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al.
- The effects of a constructed closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC tipping behavior J. Soons & H. Dijkstra
- More Frequent Abrupt Marine Environmental Changes Expected C. Heinze et al.
- CMIP6 simulations with the compact Earth system model OSCAR v3.1 Y. Quilcaille et al.
- Millennium time-scale experiments on climate-carbon cycle with doubled CO2 concentration T. Hajima et al.
- Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3 F. Fabiano et al.
- How much additional global warming should we expect from past CO2 emissions? H. Matthews
- Testing GWP* to quantify non-CO2 contributions in the carbon budget framework in overshoot scenarios M. Mastropierro et al.
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- Preparing for a post-net-zero world A. King et al.
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- SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios V. Couplet et al.
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- A geophysical commitment to warming over 1.5 °C by 2029 after cessation of emissions
- ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making A. King et al.
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- Effects of temperature overshoot amplitude on regional climate H. Douglas et al.
- Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5 A. King et al.
- The Effects on Energy Markets of Achieving a 1.5 °C Scenario L. Lindholt & T. Wei
- An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget H. Damon Matthews et al.
- Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects M. Siegert et al.
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Short summary
Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon...