Articles | Volume 10, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Development and technical paper
| 
30 Jun 2017
Development and technical paper |
| 30 Jun 2017
Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0
Alexander Nauels
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Victoria, Australia
Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Victoria, Australia
Malte Meinshausen
Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Victoria, Australia
Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Victoria, Australia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Matthias Mengel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Katja Lorbacher
Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Victoria, Australia
Tom M. L. Wigley
The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
Viewed
Total article views: 8,058 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 05 Oct 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,479 | 2,384 | 195 | 8,058 | 185 | 186 |
- HTML: 5,479
- PDF: 2,384
- XML: 195
- Total: 8,058
- BibTeX: 185
- EndNote: 186
Total article views: 7,204 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 30 Jun 2017)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,954 | 2,077 | 173 | 7,204 | 175 | 160 |
- HTML: 4,954
- PDF: 2,077
- XML: 173
- Total: 7,204
- BibTeX: 175
- EndNote: 160
Total article views: 854 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 05 Oct 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 525 | 307 | 22 | 854 | 10 | 26 |
- HTML: 525
- PDF: 307
- XML: 22
- Total: 854
- BibTeX: 10
- EndNote: 26
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 8,058 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 7,565 with geography defined
and 493 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 7,204 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 6,741 with geography defined
and 463 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 854 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 824 with geography defined
and 30 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
60 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals A. Geiges et al. 10.5194/esd-11-697-2020
- Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey B. Horton et al. 10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
- Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards A. Hough & T. Wong 10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022
- Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go? K. von Schuckmann et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023
- Voting with their Sandals: Partisan Residential Sorting on Climate Change Risk A. Bernstein et al. 10.2139/ssrn.3712665
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise Projections Due to the Dependence Between Contributors D. Le Bars 10.1029/2018EF000849
- Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World’s largest lizard from global warming A. Jones et al. 10.1002/ece3.6705
- The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty S. Baur et al. 10.5194/esd-14-367-2023
- Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy P. Clark et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0226-6
- Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond M. Palmer et al. 10.1029/2019EF001413
- Social cost of carbon under a carbon-neutral pathway A. Liu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6819
- Short-Term Seawater Inundation Induces Trace Metal Mobilisation in Freshwater and Acid Sulfate Soil Environments E. Leyden et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4015338
- Tracing the Late Quaternary coastal evolution of Central Kerala, India, around the lost ancient port Muziris using multi-proxy study of the sedimentary archives P. Das et al. 10.1016/j.qsa.2024.100197
- Numerical simulation of mid-Holocene tidal regime and storm-tide inundation in the south Yangtze coastal plain, East China S. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.margeo.2020.106134
- A simple and rapid ICP-MS/MS determination of sulfur isotope ratios (34S/32S) in complex natural waters: A new tool for tracing seawater intrusion in coastal systems E. Leyden et al. 10.1016/j.talanta.2021.122708
- MimiBRICK.jl: A Julia package for the BRICK model for sea-level change in the Mimi integrated modeling framework T. Wong et al. 10.21105/joss.04556
- A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise M. Palmer et al. 10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1
- 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord L. Jackson et al. 10.1002/2017EF000688
- Asset Pricing with Disagreement about Climate Risks T. Lontzek et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4473164
- Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator M. Palmer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aad2e4
- Improving reduced complexity model assessment and usability M. Sarofim et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00973-9
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models S. Peatier et al. 10.5194/esd-15-987-2024
- Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action M. Mengel et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8
- New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding S. Kulp & B. Strauss 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z
- Impacts of Observational Constraints Related to Sea Level on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity B. Vega‐Westhoff et al. 10.1029/2018EF001082
- Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go? K. von Schuckmann et al. 10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020
- Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges A. Nauels et al. 10.1073/pnas.1907461116
- A Variational LSTM Emulator of Sea Level Contribution From the Antarctic Ice Sheet P. Van Katwyk et al. 10.1029/2023MS003899
- Extreme Meteorological Events in a Coastal Lagoon Ecosystem: The Ria de Aveiro Lagoon (Portugal) Case Study J. Lopes et al. 10.3390/jmse9070727
- Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability B. Horton et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025826
- The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond A. Slangen et al. 10.1017/cft.2022.8
- BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections T. Wong et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017
- 1D–2D Numerical Model for Wave Attenuation by Mangroves as a Porous Structure I. Magdalena et al. 10.3390/computation9060066
- 1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts C. Schleussner et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835
- Climate Change Impact in the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon Ecosystem: A Case Study J. Lopes et al. 10.3390/jmse7100352
- Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application F. Turner et al. 10.1029/2023EF003550
- Effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressures in the water quality of a coastal lagoon (Ria Formosa, Portugal) M. Rodrigues et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146311
- Coastal subsidence increases vulnerability to sea level rise over twenty first century in Cartagena, Caribbean Colombia J. Restrepo-Ángel et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-98428-4
- Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise R. Kopp et al. 10.1029/2018EF001145
- Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections A. Garner et al. 10.1029/2018EF000991
- Short-term seawater inundation induces metal mobilisation in freshwater and acid sulfate soil environments E. Leyden et al. 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.134383
- Saltwater Intrusion in the Upper Tagus Estuary during Droughts M. Rodrigues et al. 10.3390/geosciences9090400
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response Z. Nicholls et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020
- Effects of geomorphological processes and phytoclimate conditions change on forest vegetation in the Pomeranian Bay coastal zone (Wolin National Park, West Pomerania) J. Tylkowski et al. 10.14746/quageo-2023-0010
- A regime switch error correction model to project sea level rise R. Fu et al. 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000369
- Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models T. Hermans et al. 10.1029/2020GL092064
- Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast A. Fortunato et al. 10.1007/s11069-018-3375-z
- Investigating the evolution of sand bars and natural channel formation in the Mandovi estuary along the central west coast of India P. Mishra et al. 10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103875
- Sea Level and Socioeconomic Uncertainty Drives High‐End Coastal Adaptation Costs T. Wong et al. 10.1029/2022EF003061
- Multisensor Integrated Autonomous Navigation Based on Intelligent Information Fusion Y. Yuan et al. 10.2514/1.A35585
- River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise J. Nienhuis et al. 10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-093732
- Combined effects of layered heterogeneity and cutoff wall on groundwater salinization caused by storm surge inundation: Numerical simulations J. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131810
- Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory Q. Wu et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05727-7
- The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences T. Wigley 10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5
- Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard T. Wong et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3d
- High-End Scenarios of Sea-Level Rise for Coastal Risk-Averse Stakeholders H. Dayan et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.569992
- Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways A. Nauels et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6
- Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London J. Hall et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2019.04.001
60 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals A. Geiges et al. 10.5194/esd-11-697-2020
- Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey B. Horton et al. 10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
- Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards A. Hough & T. Wong 10.5194/ascmo-8-117-2022
- Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go? K. von Schuckmann et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023
- Voting with their Sandals: Partisan Residential Sorting on Climate Change Risk A. Bernstein et al. 10.2139/ssrn.3712665
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise Projections Due to the Dependence Between Contributors D. Le Bars 10.1029/2018EF000849
- Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World’s largest lizard from global warming A. Jones et al. 10.1002/ece3.6705
- The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty S. Baur et al. 10.5194/esd-14-367-2023
- Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy P. Clark et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0226-6
- Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea‐Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond M. Palmer et al. 10.1029/2019EF001413
- Social cost of carbon under a carbon-neutral pathway A. Liu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6819
- Short-Term Seawater Inundation Induces Trace Metal Mobilisation in Freshwater and Acid Sulfate Soil Environments E. Leyden et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4015338
- Tracing the Late Quaternary coastal evolution of Central Kerala, India, around the lost ancient port Muziris using multi-proxy study of the sedimentary archives P. Das et al. 10.1016/j.qsa.2024.100197
- Numerical simulation of mid-Holocene tidal regime and storm-tide inundation in the south Yangtze coastal plain, East China S. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.margeo.2020.106134
- A simple and rapid ICP-MS/MS determination of sulfur isotope ratios (34S/32S) in complex natural waters: A new tool for tracing seawater intrusion in coastal systems E. Leyden et al. 10.1016/j.talanta.2021.122708
- MimiBRICK.jl: A Julia package for the BRICK model for sea-level change in the Mimi integrated modeling framework T. Wong et al. 10.21105/joss.04556
- A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise M. Palmer et al. 10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1
- 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord L. Jackson et al. 10.1002/2017EF000688
- Asset Pricing with Disagreement about Climate Risks T. Lontzek et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4473164
- Extending CMIP5 projections of global mean temperature change and sea level rise due to thermal expansion using a physically-based emulator M. Palmer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aad2e4
- Improving reduced complexity model assessment and usability M. Sarofim et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00973-9
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models S. Peatier et al. 10.5194/esd-15-987-2024
- Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action M. Mengel et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8
- New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding S. Kulp & B. Strauss 10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z
- Impacts of Observational Constraints Related to Sea Level on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity B. Vega‐Westhoff et al. 10.1029/2018EF001082
- Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go? K. von Schuckmann et al. 10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020
- Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges A. Nauels et al. 10.1073/pnas.1907461116
- A Variational LSTM Emulator of Sea Level Contribution From the Antarctic Ice Sheet P. Van Katwyk et al. 10.1029/2023MS003899
- Extreme Meteorological Events in a Coastal Lagoon Ecosystem: The Ria de Aveiro Lagoon (Portugal) Case Study J. Lopes et al. 10.3390/jmse9070727
- Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability B. Horton et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025826
- The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond A. Slangen et al. 10.1017/cft.2022.8
- BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections T. Wong et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017
- 1D–2D Numerical Model for Wave Attenuation by Mangroves as a Porous Structure I. Magdalena et al. 10.3390/computation9060066
- 1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts C. Schleussner et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835
- Climate Change Impact in the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon Ecosystem: A Case Study J. Lopes et al. 10.3390/jmse7100352
- Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application F. Turner et al. 10.1029/2023EF003550
- Effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressures in the water quality of a coastal lagoon (Ria Formosa, Portugal) M. Rodrigues et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146311
- Coastal subsidence increases vulnerability to sea level rise over twenty first century in Cartagena, Caribbean Colombia J. Restrepo-Ángel et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-98428-4
- Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise R. Kopp et al. 10.1029/2018EF001145
- Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections A. Garner et al. 10.1029/2018EF000991
- Short-term seawater inundation induces metal mobilisation in freshwater and acid sulfate soil environments E. Leyden et al. 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.134383
- Saltwater Intrusion in the Upper Tagus Estuary during Droughts M. Rodrigues et al. 10.3390/geosciences9090400
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response Z. Nicholls et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020
- Effects of geomorphological processes and phytoclimate conditions change on forest vegetation in the Pomeranian Bay coastal zone (Wolin National Park, West Pomerania) J. Tylkowski et al. 10.14746/quageo-2023-0010
- A regime switch error correction model to project sea level rise R. Fu et al. 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000369
- Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models T. Hermans et al. 10.1029/2020GL092064
- Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast A. Fortunato et al. 10.1007/s11069-018-3375-z
- Investigating the evolution of sand bars and natural channel formation in the Mandovi estuary along the central west coast of India P. Mishra et al. 10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103875
- Sea Level and Socioeconomic Uncertainty Drives High‐End Coastal Adaptation Costs T. Wong et al. 10.1029/2022EF003061
- Multisensor Integrated Autonomous Navigation Based on Intelligent Information Fusion Y. Yuan et al. 10.2514/1.A35585
- River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise J. Nienhuis et al. 10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-093732
- Combined effects of layered heterogeneity and cutoff wall on groundwater salinization caused by storm surge inundation: Numerical simulations J. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131810
- Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory Q. Wu et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05727-7
- The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences T. Wigley 10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5
- Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard T. Wong et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3d
- High-End Scenarios of Sea-Level Rise for Coastal Risk-Averse Stakeholders H. Dayan et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.569992
- Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways A. Nauels et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6
- Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London J. Hall et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2019.04.001
Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
Short summary
The MAGICC sea level model projects global sea level rise by emulating process-based estimates for all major sea level drivers and applying them to available climate scenarios and their extensions to 2300. The MAGICC sea level projections are well within the ranges of the fifth IPCC assessment report. Due to its efficient structure, this emulator is a powerful tool for exploring sea level uncertainties and investigating sea level responses for a wide range of climate mitigation pathways.
The MAGICC sea level model projects global sea level rise by emulating process-based estimates...
