Development and Evaluation of the Aerosol Forecast Member in NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS-Aerosols v1)
- 1CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, US
- 2Global Systems Laboratory, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, US
- 3Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, US
- 4NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD, US
- 5Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, US
- 6I.M. Systems Group at NCEP/NWS/EMC, College Park, MD, US
- 7Environmental Modeling Center, National Weather Service, Greenbelt, MD, US
- 8NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, US
- 9NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Greenbelt, MD, US
- 10Department of Geography, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, US
Abstract. NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) is on its way to deploy various operational prediction applications using the Unified Forecast System (https://ufscommunity.org/), a community-based coupled, comprehensive Earth modeling system. An aerosol model component developed in a collaboration between the Global Systems Laboratory, Chemical Science Laboratory, the Air Resources Laboratory, and Environmental Modeling Center (GSL, CSL, ARL, EMC) was coupled online with the FV3 Global Forecast System (FV3GFS) using the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)-based NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) software framework. This aerosol prediction system replaced the NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) system in the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) production suite in September 2020 as one of the ensemble members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), dubbed GEFS-Aerosols v1. The aerosol component of atmospheric composition in GEFS is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) that was previously included into FIM-Chem (Zhang et al, 2021). GEFS-Aerosols includes bulk modules from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). Additionally, the biomass burning plume rise module from High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)-Smoke was implemented; the GOCART dust scheme was replaced by the FENGSHA dust scheme (developed by ARL); the Blended Global Biomass Burning Emissions Product (GBBEPx V3) provides biomass burning emission and Fire Radiative Power (FRP) data; and the global anthropogenic emission inventories are derived from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). All sub-grid scale transport and deposition is handled inside the atmospheric physics routines, which required consistent implementation of positive definite tracer transport and wet scavenging in the physics parameterizations used by NCEP’s operational Global Forecast System based on FV3 (FV3GFS). This paper describes the details of GEFS-Aerosols model development and evaluation of real-time and retrospective runs using different observations from in situ measurement, satellite and aircraft data. GEFS-Aerosols predictions demonstrate substantial improvements for both composition and variability of aerosol distributions over those from the former operational NGAC system.
Li Zhang et al.
Li Zhang et al.
Li Zhang et al.
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