Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-378
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-378

Submitted as: model description paper 24 Nov 2021

Submitted as: model description paper | 24 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Development and Evaluation of the Aerosol Forecast Member in NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS-Aerosols v1)

Li Zhang1,2, Raffaele Montuoro1,2, Stuart A. McKeen1,3, Barry Baker4,5, Partha S. Bhattacharjee6, Georg A. Grell2, Judy Henderson2, Li Pan6, Gregory J. Frost3, Jeff McQueen7, Rick Saylor8, Haiqin Li1,2, Ravan Ahmadov1,2, Jun Wang7, Ivanka Stajner7, Shobha Kondragunta9, Xiaoyang Zhang10, and Fangjun Li10 Li Zhang et al.
  • 1CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, US
  • 2Global Systems Laboratory, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, US
  • 3Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, US
  • 4NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD, US
  • 5Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, US
  • 6I.M. Systems Group at NCEP/NWS/EMC, College Park, MD, US
  • 7Environmental Modeling Center, National Weather Service, Greenbelt, MD, US
  • 8NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, US
  • 9NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Greenbelt, MD, US
  • 10Department of Geography, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, US

Abstract. NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) is on its way to deploy various operational prediction applications using the Unified Forecast System (https://ufscommunity.org/), a community-based coupled, comprehensive Earth modeling system. An aerosol model component developed in a collaboration between the Global Systems Laboratory, Chemical Science Laboratory, the Air Resources Laboratory, and Environmental Modeling Center (GSL, CSL, ARL, EMC) was coupled online with the FV3 Global Forecast System (FV3GFS) using the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)-based NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) software framework. This aerosol prediction system replaced the NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) system in the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) production suite in September 2020 as one of the ensemble members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), dubbed GEFS-Aerosols v1. The aerosol component of atmospheric composition in GEFS is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) that was previously included into FIM-Chem (Zhang et al, 2021). GEFS-Aerosols includes bulk modules from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). Additionally, the biomass burning plume rise module from High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)-Smoke was implemented; the GOCART dust scheme was replaced by the FENGSHA dust scheme (developed by ARL); the Blended Global Biomass Burning Emissions Product (GBBEPx V3) provides biomass burning emission and Fire Radiative Power (FRP) data; and the global anthropogenic emission inventories are derived from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). All sub-grid scale transport and deposition is handled inside the atmospheric physics routines, which required consistent implementation of positive definite tracer transport and wet scavenging in the physics parameterizations used by NCEP’s operational Global Forecast System based on FV3 (FV3GFS). This paper describes the details of GEFS-Aerosols model development and evaluation of real-time and retrospective runs using different observations from in situ measurement, satellite and aircraft data. GEFS-Aerosols predictions demonstrate substantial improvements for both composition and variability of aerosol distributions over those from the former operational NGAC system.

Li Zhang et al.

Status: open (until 19 Jan 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Li Zhang et al.

Li Zhang et al.

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Short summary
NOAA’s air quality predictions contribute to protect lives and health in the US, which requires sustainable development and improvement of forecast system. GEFS-Aerosols v1 was developed in a collaboration between the NOAA research laboratories for operational forecast since September 2020 in the NCEP. The predictions demonstrate substantial improvements for both composition and variability of aerosol distributions over those from the former operational system.