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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-103
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-103
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: model description paper 20 May 2020

Submitted as: model description paper | 20 May 2020

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal GMD and is expected to appear here in due course.

ISSM-SLPS: geodetically compliant Sea-Level Projection System for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.17

Eric Larour1, Surendra Adhikari1, Thomas Frederikse1, Lambert Caron1, Benjamin Hamlington1, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel1, Erik Ivins1, Robert Kopp2, Mathieu Morlighem3, and Sophie Nowicki4 Eric Larour et al.
  • 1Jet Propulsion Laboratory – California Institute of technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive MS 300-323, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USA
  • 2Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
  • 3University of California at Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, California, USA
  • 4NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Cryospheric Sciences Lab, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA

Abstract. Understanding future impacts of sea-level rise at the local level is paramount to mitigating its effects. In particular, quantifying the range of sea-level rise outcomes in a probabilistic way enables coastal planners to better adapt strategies, depending on cost and timing. For long-term projections, from present-day to the end of the 21st century, frameworks have been developed that provide such probabilistic projections. They rely on sea-level fingerprints where contributions from different processes are sampled at each individual time step and summed up to create probability distributions of sea-level rise for each desired location. While advantageous, this method does not readily allow for including new physics developed in forward models of each component. For example, couplings and feedbacks between ice sheets, ocean circulation, and solid-Earth uplift cannot easily be represented in such frameworks. Indeed, the main impediment to inclusion of more forward model physics in probabilistic sea-level frameworks is the availability of dynamically computed sea-level fingerprints that can be directly linked to local mass changes. Here, we demonstrate such an approach within the Ice-Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), where we develop a probabilistic framework that can readily be coupled to forward process models such as those for ice sheets, glacial-isostatic adjustment, hydrology and ocean circulation, among others. Through large scale uncertainty quantification, we demonstrate how this approach enables inclusion of incremental improvements in all forward models and provides fidelity to time-correlated processes. The projection system may readily process input and output quantities that are geodetically consistent with space and terrestrial measurement systems. The approach can also account for numerous improvements in our understanding of sea-level processes.

Eric Larour et al.

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Eric Larour et al.

Eric Larour et al.

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Latest update: 28 Sep 2020
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Short summary
ISSM-SLPS is a new projection system for future sea-level that increases the resolution and accuracy of current projection systems, and improves on the way uncertainty is treated in such projections. This will pave the way for better inclusion of state-of-the-art results from existing intercomparison efforts carried out by the science community, such as GlacierMIP2 or ISMIP6, into sea-level projections.
ISSM-SLPS is a new projection system for future sea-level that increases the resolution and...
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