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https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-78
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-78
Submitted as: development and technical paper
 | 
15 May 2024
Submitted as: development and technical paper |  | 15 May 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0: A Novel Hybrid Nonlinear Data Assimilation System for Improved Simulation of PM2.5 Chemical Components

Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang

Abstract. PM2.5, a complex mixture with diverse chemical components, exerts significant impacts on the environment, human health, and climate change. However, precisely describing spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 chemical components remains a difficulty. In our earlier work, we developed an aerosol extinction coefficient data assimilation (DA) system (NAQPMS-PDAF v1.0) that is suboptimal for chemical components. This paper introduces a novel hybrid nonlinear chemical DA system (NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0) to accurately interpret key chemical components (SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, OC, and EC). NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 improves upon v1.0 by effectively handing and balancing stability and nonlinearity in chemical DA, which is achieved by incorporating the non-Gaussian-distribution ensemble perturbation and hybrid Localized Kalman-Nonlinear Ensemble Transform Filter with an adaptive forgetting factor for the first time. The dependence tests demonstrate that NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 provides excellent DA results with a minimal ensemble size of 10, surpassing previous reports and v1.0. A one-month DA experiment shows that the analysis field generated by NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 is in good agreement with observations, especially reducing the underestimation of NH4+ and NO3- and the overestimation of SO42-, OC, and EC. In particular, the CORR values for NO3-, OC, and EC are above 0.96, and R2 values are above 0.93. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 also demonstrates superior spatiotemporal interpretation, with most DA sites showing improvements of over 50 %–200 % in CORR and over 50 %–90 % in RMSE for the five chemical components. Compared to the poor performance in global reanalysis dataset (CORR: 0.42–0.55, RMSE: 4.51–12.27 µg/m3) and NAQPMS-PDAF v1.0 (CORR: 0.35–0.98, RMSE: 2.46–15.50 µg/m3), NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has the highest CORR of 0.86–0.99 and the lowest RMSE of 0.14–3.18 µg/m3. The uncertainties in ensemble DA are also examined, further highlighting the potential of NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 for advancing aerosol chemical component studies.

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Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang

Status: open (until 10 Jul 2024)

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Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang
Hongyi Li, Ting Yang, Lars Nerger, Dawei Zhang, Di Zhang, Guigang Tang, Haibo Wang, Yele Sun, Pingqing Fu, Hang Su, and Zifa Wang

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Short summary
To accurately characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of PM2.5 chemical components, we developed a hybrid nonlinear data assimilation system (NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0), which is optimal for chemical components with non-Gaussian and nonlinear properties. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has superior computing efficiency and excels when used a small ensemble size. The one-month assimilation experiments show that NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 can significantly improve the simulation performance of chemical components.