Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-58
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-58
Submitted as: model description paper
 | 
22 May 2024
Submitted as: model description paper |  | 22 May 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

HOTSSea v1: a NEMO-based physical Hindcast of the Salish Sea (1980–2018) supporting ecosystem model development

Greig Oldford, Tereza Jarníková, Villy Christensen, and Michael Dunphy

Abstract. Decadal-scale oceanographic, environmental, and ecological changes have been reported in the Salish Sea, an ecologically productive and biodiverse inland sea in the northeast Pacific that supports the economies and cultures of millions of people; however, there are substantial observational gaps pertaining to physical water properties that make linkages between physical drivers and ecosystem effects difficult to ascertain. With the aim of addressing these gaps, we present the Hindcast of the Salish Sea (HOTSSea) v1 with temporal coverage from 1980–2018, developed using the NEMO ocean engine. An inter-model comparison and preliminary evaluation was performed to assess sensitivity to different atmospheric and ocean reanalysis products used for boundary forcings. Biases inherited from forcings were quantified and the effectiveness of a simple temperature bias correction factor applied at one ocean boundary was evaluated. Evaluation of salinity and temperature indicates performance is best in the Strait of Georgia where the model simulates temperature anomalies and a secular warming trend over the entire water column in general agreement with observations. Analyses of modelled ocean temperature trends throughout the northern and central part of the domain where model skill was high and where observations are relatively sparse yielded fresh insights, including that ocean temperature trends are spatially and temporally variable. HOTSSea v1 will support development of an end-to-end spatial-temporal ecosystem model for the Strait of Georgia and has potential for other research and management applications related to decadal-scale climate effects on marine ecosystems, fish, and fisheries.

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Greig Oldford, Tereza Jarníková, Villy Christensen, and Michael Dunphy

Status: open (until 19 Jul 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CEC1: 'Comment on gmd-2024-58', Juan Antonio Añel, 14 Jun 2024 reply
Greig Oldford, Tereza Jarníková, Villy Christensen, and Michael Dunphy

Data sets

goldford/HOTSSea_v1: Initial release (0.1.1) Greig Oldford https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10846148

Model code and software

goldford/HOTSSea_v1: Initial release (0.1.1) Greig Oldford https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10846148

Interactive computing environment

goldford/HOTSSea_v1: Initial release (0.1.1) Greig Oldford https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10846148

Greig Oldford, Tereza Jarníková, Villy Christensen, and Michael Dunphy

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Short summary
We developed a physical ocean model called the Hindcast of the Salish Sea (HOTSSea) that recreates conditions throughout the Salish Sea from 1980 to 2018, filling in the gaps in patchy measurements. The model predicts physical ocean properties with sufficient accuracy to be useful for a variety of applications. The model corroborates observed ocean temperature trends and was used to examine areas with few observations. Results indicate that some seasons and areas are warming faster than others.