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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-196
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-196
Submitted as: model description paper
 | 
29 Oct 2024
Submitted as: model description paper |  | 29 Oct 2024
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

SuCCESs – a global IAM for exploring the interactions between energy, materials, land-use and climate systems in long-term scenarios (model version 2024-10-23)

Tommi Ekholm, Nadine-Cyra Freistetter, Tuukka Mattlar, Theresa Schaber, and Aapo Rautiainen

Abstract. SuCCESs is a bottom-up Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) that represents energy production and use, materials production, land-use and climate globally. The primary use-case for SuCCESs is to calculate long-term scenarios until 2100 that consider the interactions between these systems, for example the greenhouse gas emissions from energy, materials and land-use and their impact on climate change. The four systems are hard-linked in SuCCESs and scenarios are solved through intertemporal optimization by minimizing discounted system costs to satisfy projected demand and other constraints, e.g. climate targets. This yields a long-term equilibrium solution between the modelled systems. This article introduces the model logic and structure, describes the overall representation of each system, and provides an evaluation by comparing the scenarios produced by SuCCESs with different end-of-century radiative forcing targets to those from other IAMs. Towards this end, and to demonstrate the capability of SuCCESs for large-scale scenario exploration, we also conduct a sensitivity analysis employing Monte Carlo sampling with a 1000-member scenario ensemble for each radiative forcing target. Last, we discuss some practical aspects and different ways of using the model in long-term scenario analyses.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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SuCCESs is a model that represents energy, materials, land-use and climate change globally, and...
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