Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-71
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-71
Submitted as: model description paper
 | 
09 May 2023
Submitted as: model description paper |  | 09 May 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal GMD and is expected to appear here in due course.

Deciphering past earthquakes from paleoseismic records – The Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies code (PEACH, version 1)

Octavi Gómez-Novell, Bruno Pace, Francesco Visini, Joanna Faure Walker, and Oona Scotti

Abstract. A key challenge in paleoseismology is constraining the timing and occurrence of past earthquakes to create an earthquake history along faults that can be used for testing or building fault-based seismic hazard assessments. We present a new methodological approach and accompanying code (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to meet this challenge. By using integration of multi-site paleoseismic records through probabilistic modelling of the event times and an unconditioned correlation, PEACH improves the objectivity of constraining paleoearthquake chronologies along faults, including highly populated records and poorly dated events. Our approach reduces uncertainties in event times and allows increased resolution of the trench records. By extension, the approach can potentially reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of parameters for seismic hazard assessment such as the earthquake recurrence times and coefficient of variation. We test and discuss this methodology in two well-studied cases: the Paganica Fault in Italy and the Wasatch Fault System in the United States.

Octavi Gómez-Novell et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • AC1: 'Comment on gmd-2023-71 (error in Eq.1 of the preprint)', Octavi Gomez-Novell, 18 May 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2023-71', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Sep 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Octavi Gomez-Novell, 19 Sep 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2023-71', Mauro Cacace, 27 Sep 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Octavi Gomez-Novell, 27 Sep 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • AC1: 'Comment on gmd-2023-71 (error in Eq.1 of the preprint)', Octavi Gomez-Novell, 18 May 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2023-71', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Sep 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Octavi Gomez-Novell, 19 Sep 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2023-71', Mauro Cacace, 27 Sep 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Octavi Gomez-Novell, 27 Sep 2023

Octavi Gómez-Novell et al.

Model code and software

Data for "Deciphering past earthquakes from paleoseismic records – The Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies code (PEACH, version 1)" Octavi Gómez-Novell, Bruno Pace, Francesco Visini, Joanna Faure Walker, and Oona Scotti https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7783290

Octavi Gómez-Novell et al.

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Short summary
Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the hazard that they pose to society. We present an approach (PEACH) to correlate and compute seismic histories along faults using paleoseismic data, a common type of data that characterizes past seismic activity from the geological record. Our approach refines and reduces the uncertainties of the seismic histories and overall can improve the knowledge on faults for the seismic hazard.