the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Continental-scale bias-corrected climate and hydrological projections for Australia
Justin Peter
Elisabeth Vogel
Wendy Sharples
Ulrike Bende-Michl
Louise Wilson
Pandora Hope
Andrew Dowdy
Greg Kociuba
Sri Srikanthan
Vi Co Duong
Jake Roussis
Vjekoslav Matic
Zaved Khan
Alison Oke
Margot Turner
Stuart Baron-Hay
Fiona Johnson
Raj Mehrotra
Ashish Sharma
Marcus Thatcher
Ali Azarvinand
Steven Thomas
Ghyslaine Boschat
Chantal Donnelly
Robert Argent
Abstract. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has developed a national hydrological projections (NHP) service for Australia. With the focus on hydrological change assessment, the NHP service aims at being complementary to climate projections work carried out by many federal and state governments, universities, and other organisations across Australia. The projections comprise an ensemble of application-ready bias-corrected climate model data and derived hydrological projections at daily temporal and 0.05° × 0.05° spatial resolution for the period 1960–2099 and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The spatial resolution of the projections matches that of gridded historical reference data used to perform the bias correction and the Bureau's operational gridded hydrological model. Three bias correction techniques were applied to four CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and one to output from a regional climate model forced by the same four GCMs, resulting in a 16-member ensemble of bias-corrected GCM data for each emission scenario. The bias correction was applied to fields of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, downwelling shortwave radiation and surface winds. These variables are required inputs to the Bureau's landscape water balance hydrological model (AWRA-L) which was forced using the bias-corrected GCM and RCM data to produce a 16-member ensemble of hydrological output. The hydrological output variables include root-zone soil moisture (moisture in the top 1 m soil layer), potential evapotranspiration and runoff. Here we present an overview of the production of the hydrological projections, including GCM selection, bias correction methods and their evaluation, technical aspects of their implementation and examples of analysis performed to construct the NHP service. The data are publicly available on the National Computing Infrastructure (https://dx.doi.org/10.25914/6130680dc5a51) and a user interface is accessible at https://awo.bom.gov.au/products/projection/.
Justin Peter et al.
Status: open (until 27 Apr 2023)
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CC1: 'Comment on gmd-2023-7', Belinda Medlyn, 06 Mar 2023
reply
Folks, these look like useful projections that could potentially support our dynamic vegetation modelling work for Australia. However, one thing missing is any variable related to vapour pressure. Our models take in either VPD or RH. These are important inputs for vegetation modelling, as the increase in VPD is a major driver of fire disturbance and drought-related mortality. I can see that AWRA-L v7 takes actual vapour pressure as an input, but you have designed the projections for AWRA-L v6 which only uses Tmin and Tmax. Would you be able to comment on the choice not to also downscale vapour pressure? And make a recommendation for how to use these outputs in a model requiring Vp, RH or VPD as an input?Â
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-7-CC1
Justin Peter et al.
Justin Peter et al.
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