Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-204
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-204
Submitted as: development and technical paper
 | 
06 Dec 2023
Submitted as: development and technical paper |  | 06 Dec 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal GMD and is expected to appear here in due course.

GCAM-GLORY v1.0: Representing Global Reservoir Water Storage in a Multisector Human-Earth System Model

Mengqi Zhao, Thomas B. Wild, Neal T. Graham, Son Kim, Matthew Binsted, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Siwa Msangi, Pralit L. Patel, Chris R. Vernon, Hassan Niazi, Hong-Yi Li, and Guta W. Abeshu

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a Linear Programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm, and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM-GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost to supply increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the levelized cost to construct additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables exploring future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY-GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Mengqi Zhao, Thomas B. Wild, Neal T. Graham, Son Kim, Matthew Binsted, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Siwa Msangi, Pralit L. Patel, Chris R. Vernon, Hassan Niazi, Hong-Yi Li, and Guta W. Abeshu

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2023-204', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Feb 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Mengqi Zhao, 03 Apr 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2023-204', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Mengqi Zhao, 03 Apr 2024

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2023-204', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Feb 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Mengqi Zhao, 03 Apr 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2023-204', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Mengqi Zhao, 03 Apr 2024
Mengqi Zhao, Thomas B. Wild, Neal T. Graham, Son Kim, Matthew Binsted, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Siwa Msangi, Pralit L. Patel, Chris R. Vernon, Hassan Niazi, Hong-Yi Li, and Guta W. Abeshu

Data sets

Meta-Repository: Representing Reservoir Water Storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) M. Zhao, T. B. Wild, N. T. Graham, S. Kim, M. Binsted, K. Chowdhury, S. Msangi, P. Patel, C. R. Vernon, H. Niazi, H. Li, and G. Abeshu https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10211057

Model code and software

Meta-Repository: Representing Reservoir Water Storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) M. Zhao, T. B. Wild, N. T. Graham, S. Kim, M. Binsted, K. Chowdhury, S. Msangi, P. Patel, C. R. Vernon, H. Niazi, H. Li, and G. Abeshu https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10211057

Mengqi Zhao, Thomas B. Wild, Neal T. Graham, Son Kim, Matthew Binsted, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Siwa Msangi, Pralit L. Patel, Chris R. Vernon, Hassan Niazi, Hong-Yi Li, and Guta W. Abeshu

Viewed

Total article views: 727 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
508 178 41 727 43 36 35
  • HTML: 508
  • PDF: 178
  • XML: 41
  • Total: 727
  • Supplement: 43
  • BibTeX: 36
  • EndNote: 35
Views and downloads (calculated since 06 Dec 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Dec 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 731 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 731 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 23 Jun 2024
Download
Short summary
The Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) simulates interactions among the world’s climate, land, energy, and water systems, but its reservoir representation is limited. We developed the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model to provide GCAM with information on the cost to supply water based on reservoir construction costs, climate and demand conditions, and reservoir expansion potential. GLORY enhances our understanding of future reservoir capacity needs to meet human demands in a changing climate.