Adding Sea Ice Effects to A Global Operational Model (NEMO v3.6) for Forecasting Total Water Level: Approach and Impact

Abstract. In operational flood forecast systems, the effect of sea ice is typically neglected or parameterized solely in terms of ice concentration. In this study, an efficient way of adding ice effects to global total water level prediction systems, via the ice-ocean stress, is described and evaluated. The approach features a novel, consistent representation of the tidal relative ice-ocean velocities based on a transfer function derived from ice and ocean tidal ellipses given by an external ice-ocean model. The approach and its impact are demonstrated over four ice seasons in the Northern Hemisphere using in-situ observations and model predictions. We show that adding ice effects helps the model reproduce most of the observed seasonal modulations in tides (up to 40 % in amplitude and 50° in phase for M₂) in the Arctic and Hudson Bay. The dominant driving mechanism for the seasonal modulations is shown to be the under-ice friction, acting in areas of shallow water (less than 100 m), and its accompanied large displacements of amphidromes (up to 125 km). Important contributions from baroclinicity and tide-surge interaction due to ice-ocean stress are also found in the Arctic. Both mechanisms generally reinforce the seasonal modulations induced by the under-ice friction. In forecast systems that neglect or rely on simple ice concentration parameterizations, storm surges tend to be overestimated. With the inclusion of ice-ocean stress, surfaces stresses are significantly reduced (up to 100 % in landfast ice areas). Over the four ice seasons covered by this study, corrections up to 1.0 m to the overestimation of surges are achieved. Remaining limitations regarding the overestimated amphidrome displacements and insufficient ice break-up during large storms are discussed. Finally, the anticipated trend of increasing risk of coastal flooding in the Arctic, associated with decreasing ice and its profound impact on tides and storm surges, is briefly discussed.