Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-9
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-9
Submitted as: model evaluation paper
28 Jan 2022
Submitted as: model evaluation paper | 28 Jan 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal GMD and is expected to appear here in due course.

Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using LAKE 2.0 model

Jason A. Clark1, Elchin E. Jafarov2,3, Ken D. Tape1, Benjamin M. Jones4, and Victor Stepanenko5,6 Jason A. Clark et al.
  • 1Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK, USA
  • 2Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
  • 3Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
  • 4Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK, USA
  • 5Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
  • 6Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics, Moscow, Russia

Abstract. Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and larger absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature > 0 °C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing underlying permafrost due to warming waters in the summer and in the winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in Northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature). The LAKE model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modelled water temperatures with data of observed lake temperatures at several depths. Our validation of the LAKE model completes a necessary step toward modelling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that the LAKE model is not highly sensitive to the weather data perturbations used in this study. Our results show that snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season which dominates the annual thermal regime. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation.

Jason A. Clark et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-9', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Feb 2022
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Jason Clark, 29 Apr 2022
  • CEC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-9', Juan Antonio Añel, 01 Mar 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Jason Clark, 02 Mar 2022
      • CEC2: 'Reply on AC1', Juan Antonio Añel, 03 Mar 2022
        • AC2: 'Reply on CEC2', Jason Clark, 03 Mar 2022
          • CEC3: 'Reply on AC2', Juan Antonio Añel, 03 Mar 2022
      • AC3: 'Reply on AC1', Jason Clark, 15 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2022-9', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Mar 2022
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Jason Clark, 29 Apr 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-9', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Feb 2022
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Jason Clark, 29 Apr 2022
  • CEC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-9', Juan Antonio Añel, 01 Mar 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Jason Clark, 02 Mar 2022
      • CEC2: 'Reply on AC1', Juan Antonio Añel, 03 Mar 2022
        • AC2: 'Reply on CEC2', Jason Clark, 03 Mar 2022
          • CEC3: 'Reply on AC2', Juan Antonio Añel, 03 Mar 2022
      • AC3: 'Reply on AC1', Jason Clark, 15 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2022-9', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Mar 2022
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC2', Jason Clark, 29 Apr 2022

Jason A. Clark et al.

Jason A. Clark et al.

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Short summary
Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to warm the surrounding frozen ground. We simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in Northern Alaska over several years. Our results show that snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season and more heat storage by lakes would enhanced thawing of frozen ground.