Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-70
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-70
Submitted as: model description paper
05 May 2022
Submitted as: model description paper | 05 May 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

The AirGAM 2022r1 air quality trend and prediction model

Sam-Erik Walker, Sverre Solberg, Philipp Schneider, and Cristina Guerreiro Sam-Erik Walker et al.
  • Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller, Norway

Abstract. This paper presents the AirGAM 2022r1 model – an air quality trend and prediction model developed at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) in cooperation with the European Environment Agency (EEA) over 2017–2021. AirGAM is based on nonlinear regression GAM – Generalized Additive Models – capable of estimating trends in daily measured pollutant concentrations at air quality monitoring stations, discounting for the effects of trends and time variations in corresponding meteorological data. The model has been developed primarily for the compounds NO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5. Meteorological input data consist of temperature, wind speed and direction, planetary boundary layer height, relative and absolute humidity, cloud cover and precipitation over the period considered. The exact set of meteorological variables used in the model depends on the compound selected for analysis. In addition to meteorological variables introduced in the model as covariates, i.e. explanatory variables for the concentration levels, the model also incorporates time variables such as day of the week, day of the year, and overall time, related to the model's trend term. The trend analysis is performed at each station separately. Thus, the model only considers the temporal features of concentrations and meteorology at a station, not any spatial correlations or dependencies between stations. AirGAM is implemented using the R language for statistical computing and, in particular, the GAM package mgcv. In the model, meteorological and time covariates are represented and estimated as smooth nonlinear functions of the corresponding variables. Thus, the trend term is defined and estimated as a smooth nonlinear function of time over the period selected for analysis. Once fitted to training data, the model may be used as a prediction tool capable of predicting air pollutant concentrations for new sets of meteorological and time data which are not in the training set – e.g. for cross-validation or forecasting purposes. The model does not explicitly use emissions or background concentrations – these are sought to be implicitly represented through the estimated nonlinear relations between meteorology, time and concentrations. In addition to meteorology-adjusted trends, the program also produces unadjusted trends – i.e., trends based on the same regression set-up but only including the time covariates. Both types of trends can be output in the same run, making it possible to compare them. Ideally, the meteorology-adjusted trend will show the trend in concentration mainly due to changes in emissions or physio-chemical processes not induced by changes in meteorology. AirGAM has been developed and tested primarily in trend studies based on measurement data hosted by EEA, including the Airbase data (before 2013) and the Air Quality e-Reporting (AQER) data from 2013 and onwards. Still, the model is general and could be applied in other regions with other input data. The EEA data provide daily or hourly surface measurements at individual monitoring stations in Europe. For input meteorological data, we extract time-series from the gridded meteorological re-analysis (ERA5) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) for each monitoring station. The paper presents results with the model for all Airbase/AQER stations in Europe from the latest EEA trend study for 2005–2019.

Sam-Erik Walker et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-70', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Jun 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2022-70', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Jun 2022
  • AC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-70', Sam-Erik Walker, 27 Jul 2022

Sam-Erik Walker et al.

Sam-Erik Walker et al.

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Short summary
We have developed a statistical model for estimating trends in daily air quality observations of NO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5, adjusting for trends and short-term variations in meteorology. The model is general and may also be used for prediction purposes, including forecasting. It has been applied in a recent comprehensive EEA study in Europe. Significant declines are shown for the pollutants from 2005 to 2019, mainly due to reductions in emissions not attributable to changes in meteorology.