Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-32
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-32
Submitted as: development and technical paper
 | 
05 Apr 2022
Submitted as: development and technical paper |  | 05 Apr 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal GMD and is expected to appear here in due course.

Towards variance-conserving reconstructions of climate indices with Gaussian Process Regression in an embedding space

Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita

Abstract. We present a new framework for the reconstruction of climate indices based on proxy data such as tree rings. The framework is based on the supervised learning method Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and designed to preserve the amplitude of past climate variability and to adequately handle noise-contaminated proxies and variable proxy availability in time. To this end, the GPR is performed in a modified input space, termed embedding space. We test the new framework for the reconstruction of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) in a controlled environment with pseudoproxies derived from coupled climate-model simulations. In this test environment, the GPR outperforms benchmark reconstructions based on multi-linear Principle Component Regression. On AMV-relevant timescales, i.e., multi-decadal timescales, the GPR is able to reconstruct the true magnitude of variability even if the proxies contain a non-climatic noise signal and become sparser back in time. Thus, we conclude that the embedded GPR framework is a highly promising tool for climate-index reconstructions.

Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jul 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Aug 2022
  • AC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-32', Marlene Klockmann, 30 Aug 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jul 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2022-32', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Aug 2022
  • AC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-32', Marlene Klockmann, 30 Aug 2022
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita

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Short summary
Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions based on Gaussian Processes which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.