the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Variability and combination as ensemble of mineral dust forecast during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment
Abstract. As an operational support to the CADDIWA field campaign, the coupled regional model WRF-CHIMERE is deployed in forecast mode during the summer 2021. The simulation domain covers West Africa and the East Atlantic and allows the modeling of dust emissions and their transport to the Atlantic. On this route, we find Cape Verde which was used as a base for measurements during the CADDIWA campaign. The forecast consists of meteorological variables and mineral dust concentrations on a horizontal grid with a resolution of 30 km and from the surface to 200 hPa. Each day, the simulation starts the day before (D-1) and up to four days ahead (D+4). For each day, we thus have six different calculations, with logically a better precision the closer we get to the analysis (D-1). In this study, a quantification of the forecast variability of wind, temperature, precipitations and mineral dust concentrations according to the modelled lead is presented. It has been shown that the forecast quality doesn't decrease with time and that high variability on some days for some variables (wind, temperature) does not explain the behavior of other dependent and downwind variables (mineral dust concentrations). A new hypothesis is also tested: why not consider the several six forecast leads available for each date as members of an ensemble forecast? It has been shown that this new forecast, the mean of all forecast leads, is able to give better results for two AERONET stations on the four available for Aerosol Optical Depth. This could open the door to further testing with more complex operational systems.
Laurent Menut
Status: final response (author comments only)
- RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-306', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Jan 2023
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CEC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-306', Astrid Kerkweg, 08 Feb 2023
Dear authors,
in my role as Executive editor of GMD, I would like to bring to your attention our Editorial version 1.2: https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/2215/2019/
This highlights some requirements of papers published in GMD, which is also available on the GMD website in the ‘Manuscript Types’ section: http://www.geoscientific-model-development.net/submission/manuscript_types.html
In particular, please note that for your paper, the following requirements have not been met in the Discussions paper:
- "The main paper must give the model name and version number (or other unique identifier) in the title."
- “If the model development relates to a single model then the model name and the version number must be included in the title of the paper. If the main intention of an article is to make a general (i.e. model independent) statement about the usefulness of a new development, but the usefulness is shown with the help of one specific model, the model name and version number must be stated in the title. The title could have a form such as, “Title outlining amazing generic advance: a case study with Model XXX (version Y)”.''
As you are using (WRF-)CHIMERE only, the model name including the version number you used has to appear in the title.
Yours, Astrid Kerkweg
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-306-CEC1 -
RC2: 'Comment on gmd-2022-306', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 May 2023
The paper presents the outcome of the forecasting tool implemented to accompagny the CADDIWA field campaign in September 2021. The forecasts were made using a simplified version of the WFR-CHIMERE model in order for the model products to be available each morning to the scientists in Cape Verde. The model outputs are compared to AERONET stations derived aerosol optical depths, when/where such measurements are available. Besides data/model comparisons, the paper develops interesting ideas on how to use the 6-days forecasts made daily in an "ensemble" mode. Metrics are provided that illustrate the insights that can be gained with the new approach. Even though, the approach is only tested on a limited number of variables and locations, the paper deserves to be published... Additional assessments on other variables than AOD would be a plus.
Nevertheless, the english is quite rough and needs to be worked on. I have attached a copy of the typescript with suggestions on how to improve the quality of the english.
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AC1: 'Comment on gmd-2022-306', Laurent Menut, 22 May 2023
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2022-306/gmd-2022-306-AC1-supplement.pdf
Laurent Menut
Laurent Menut
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