Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-295
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-295
Submitted as: model description paper
11 Jan 2023
Submitted as: model description paper | 11 Jan 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

The sea level simulator v1.0: a model for integration of mean sea level change and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework

Magnus Hieronymus Magnus Hieronymus
  • Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvagen 17, Norrkoping, Sweden

Abstract. A statistical model called the sea level simulator v1.0 is introduced. The model integrates mean sea level change and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework that is useful for coastal spatial planning. Given a user defined planning period, the model can estimate the flood risk as a function of height above the current mean sea level. These flood risk estimates are derived through Monte Carlo simulations of a very large amount of planning periods. The derived flood risk is contingent on user assigned probabilities for future greenhouse gas emission pathways, and the model is thus also useful for quantifying the dependence of flood risk on future emission pathways. The code, written in MatLab, is parallelized and lightweight enough that it can be run on an ordinary PC. The code is easily adaptable to include new locations, new mean sea level projections and similar model developments. The flood risk estimates derived from the simulator are well suited to tackle adaptation and decision problems. Applications for construction of coastal protections and land development in coastal areas have been demonstrated in the past. The paper gives an in-depth technical description of the model. Example simulations from a Swedish nuclear site are also given and the capabilities of the simulator are discussed. The main aim of the paper is to work as a technical reference for the first public release of the sea level simulator.

Magnus Hieronymus

Status: open (until 08 Mar 2023)

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Magnus Hieronymus

Model code and software

The sea level simulator v1.0 Magnus Hieronymus https://github.com/m-hieronymus/the_sea_level_simulator

Magnus Hieronymus

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Short summary
A statistical model called the sea level simulator is presented and made freely available. The sea level simulator integrates mean sea level rise and sea level extremes into a joint framework that is useful for flood risk estimation. These flood risk estimates are contingent on probabilities given to different emission scenarios and the length of the planning period. The model is also useful for uncertainty quantifications and in decision and adaptation problems.