Addressing challenges in uncertainty quantification. The case of geohazard assessments

Abstract. By describing critical tasks in quantifying uncertainty using geohazard models, we analyse some of the challenges involved. Under the often-seen condition of very limited data and despite the availability of recently developed sophistications to parameterise models, a major challenge that remains is the constraining of the many model parameters involved. However, challenges also lie in the credibility of predictions required in the assessments, the uncertainty of input quantities, and the conditional nature of the quantification on the choices and assumptions made by analysts. Addressing these challenges calls for more insightful approaches that are yet to be developed; however, clarifications and reinterpretations of some fundamental concepts together with practical simplifications may be required first, and these are discussed in this paper. The research aims at strengthening both the foundation of geohazard risk assessments and its practice.