Submitted as: development and technical paper 01 Jun 2021

Submitted as: development and technical paper | 01 Jun 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

How biased are our models? – A Case Study of the Alpine Region

Denise Degen1, Cameron Spooner2,3, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth2,4, and Mauro Cacace2 Denise Degen et al.
  • 1Computational Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Wüllnerstr. 2, 52062 Aachen, Germany
  • 2Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
  • 4Department of Geology, Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

Abstract. Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.

Denise Degen et al.

Status: open (extended)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on gmd-2021-48', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Jul 2021 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Denise Degen, 06 Jul 2021 reply

Denise Degen et al.

Data sets

3D-ALPS-TR: A 3D thermal and rheological model of the Alpine lithosphere Spooner, Cameron; Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena; Cacace, Mauro; Anikiev, Denis

3D ALPS: 3D Gravity Constrained Model of Density Distribution Across the Alpine Lithosphere Spooner, Cameron; Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena; Götze, Hans-Jürgen; Ebbing, Jörg; Hetényi, György

Model code and software

DwarfElephant 1.0 Degen, Denise; Veroy, Karen; Wellmann, Florian

Denise Degen et al.


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Short summary
In times of worldwide energy transitions the understanding of the subsurface is increasingly important to provide renewable energy sources such as geothermal energy. To validate our understanding of the subsurface we require data. However, the data is usually not equally distributed and introduces a potential misinterpretation of the subsurface. Therefore, we investigate in this study for a thermal study of the Alpine region the influence of measurements on the temperature distribution.