Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-433
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-433

Submitted as: model experiment description paper 07 Jan 2022

Submitted as: model experiment description paper | 07 Jan 2022

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Malgorzata Golub1, Wim Thiery2, Rafael Marcé3,4, Don Pierson1, Inne Vanderkelen2, Daniel Mercado3, R. Iestyn Woolway5, Luke Grant2, Eleanor Jennings6, Jacob Schewe7, Fang Zhao8,7, Katja Frieler7, Matthias Mengel7, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov9,10,11, Damien Bouffard12, Raoul-Marie Couture13,14, Andrey V. Debolskiy15,11, Bram Droppers16, Gideon Gal17, Mingyang Guo18, Annette B. G. Janssen16, Georgiy Kirillin19, Robert Ladwig20, Madeline Magee21, Tadhg Moore22,23, Marjorie Perroud24, Sebastiano Piccolroaz25,26, Love Raaman Vinnaa12, Martin Schmid12, Tom Shatwell27,19, Victor M. Stepanenko15, Zeli Tan28, Huaxia Yao29, Rita Adrian19,30, Mathew Allan31,32, Orlane Anneville33, Lauri Arvola34, Karen Atkins35, Leon Boegman36, Cayelan Carey23, Kyle Christianson37, Elvira de Eyto38, Curtis DeGasperi39, Maria Grechushnikova15, Josef Hejzlar40, Klaus Joehnk41, Ian D. Jones42, Alo Laas43, Eleanor B. Mackay44, Ivan Mammarella45, Hampus Markensten46, Chris McBride32, Deniz Özkundakci32, Miguel Potes47,48, Karsten Rinke27, Dale Robertson49, James Rusak29, Rui Salgado50, Leon van den Linden51, Piet Verburg52, Danielle Wain53, Nicole K. Ward23, Sabine Wollrab19, and Galina Zdorovennova54 Malgorzata Golub et al.
  • 1Uppsala University, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala, Sweden
  • 2Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Brussels, Belgium
  • 3Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona, Spain
  • 4University of Girona, Girona, Spain
  • 5University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, UK
  • 6Dundalk Institute of Technology, Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies, Dundalk, Ireland
  • 7Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  • 8Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
  • 9Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Tomsk, Russia
  • 10Tomsk State University, Tomsk, Russia
  • 11Obukhov Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia
  • 12Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Surface Waters - Research and Management
  • 13Université Laval, Department of chemistry, Quebec, Canada
  • 14Center for Northern Study, Quebec, Canada
  • 15Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
  • 16Wageningen University & Research, Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen, the Netherlands
  • 17Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic & Limnological Research, Migdal, Israel
  • 18Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, USA
  • 19Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
  • 20University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Limnology, Madison, WI, USA
  • 21Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, WI, USA
  • 22Dundalk Institute of Technology, Department of Applied Sciences, Dundalk, Ireland
  • 23Virginia Tech, Department of Biological Sciences & Forest Resources & Environmental Conservation, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
  • 24University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences, Geneva, Switzerland
  • 25University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, Trento, Italy
  • 26École Polytechnique Fédérale de Laussane, Physics of Aquatic Systems Laboratory (APHYS)-Margaretha Kamprad Chair, Lausanne, Switzerland
  • 27Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department Lake Research, Magdeburg, Germany
  • 28Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
  • 29Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks, Dorset, ON, Canada
  • 30Freie Universität Berlin; Berlin, Germany
  • 31Waikato Regional Council, Hamilton, New Zealand
  • 32University of Waikato, Environmental Research Institute, Hamilton, New Zealand
  • 33INRAE, Université Savoie Mont-Blanc, UMR CARRTEL, France
  • 34Lammi Biological Station, University of Helsinki, Finland
  • 35Tahoe Environmental Research Center, University of California, Davis, Davis, USA
  • 36Queen's University, Department of Civil Engineering, Kingston, ON, Canada
  • 37University of Colorado, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 38Marine Institute, Furnace, Newport, Co. Mayo, F28X252, Ireland
  • 39King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks, Seattle, WA, USA
  • 40Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrobiology, České Budějovice, Czech Republic
  • 41CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia
  • 42University of Stirling, Biological and Environmental Sciences, Stirling, UK
  • 43Estonian University of Life Sciences, Chair of Hydrobiology and Fishery, Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Tartu, Estonia
  • 44UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lake Ecosystems Group, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, United Kingdom
  • 45University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Helsinki, Finland
  • 46Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Sweden
  • 47Universidade de Évora, Instituto de Ciências da Terra – ICT (Polo de Évora), Instituto de Investigação e Formação Avançada (IIFA), Évora, Portugal
  • 48Universidade de Évora, Earth Remote Sensing Laboratory (EaRSLab), Instituto de Investigação e Formação Avançada (IIFA), Évora, Portugal
  • 49U.S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, Madison, WI, USA
  • 50Universidade de Évora, Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Departamento de Física, Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Évora, Portugal
  • 51South Australian Water Corporation, Adelaide, Australia
  • 52National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand
  • 537 Lakes Alliance, Belgrade Lakes, Maine, USA 04901
  • 54Northern water problems Institute Karelian Research Centre of RAS, Petrozavodsk, Russia

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various Representative Greenhouse Gas Concentration Pathways, all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5° × 0.5° global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and for nearly 17,500 lakes using uncalibrated models and forcing data from the global grid where lakes are present. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Malgorzata Golub et al.

Status: open (until 04 Mar 2022)

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Malgorzata Golub et al.

Malgorzata Golub et al.

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Short summary
Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.